Re-visiting the 2021 Draft - the EDGE class

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

18 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

The name "Boogie Basham" makes up for it a little bit....

It’s a great name. Another was Bacarri Rambo. Damn, I really wish that guy was better. Def would’ve bought his jersey. He took Aaron Rodgers to school

[TPS]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't disagree with any of that not sure what you were taking issue with? Rousseau has been an excellent run defender while he has been here but on Saturday it isn't true to say that all their issues setting the edge were when he was out. They had some struggles even when he was in there. 

 

AJ and Boogie suck at it. 

He's mainly taking issue with your statistical comparison which doesn't account for the total number of snaps. While you list the number of starts, it does not account for actual snap counts per game. With the Bills rotational system, GR has significantly fewer snaps this season than JP (according to Bado, 45% fewer snaps).

For the 2 years in total, Football reference says JP has 1287 snaps compared to GR's 908, about 42% more snaps. If you adjust (multiply by 1.42) GR's the sacks and pressure totals, then they are exactly the same as JP's, but GR's TFLs increase to 23, compared to JP's 16. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

He's mainly taking issue with your statistical comparison which doesn't account for the total number of snaps. While you list the number of starts, it does not account for actual snap counts per game. With the Bills rotational system, GR has significantly fewer snaps this season than JP (according to Bado, 45% fewer snaps).

For the 2 years in total, Football reference says JP has 1287 snaps compared to GR's 908, about 42% more snaps. If you adjust (multiply by 1.42) GR's the sacks and pressure totals, then they are exactly the same as JP's, but GR's TFLs increase to 23, compared to JP's 16. 

 

Yea, that's totally fair but I wasn't saying here is every single bit of data - it is a fair point to say "how many snaps are guys playing" but there will be lots of different reasons guys play fewer snaps. Rousseau plays fewer snaps because while a starter since day 1 the Bills are a heavy rotation team up front. Someone like Oweh has more snaps but isn't a starter and is used mainly as a situational rusher. Of course there is nuance about usage with all of those players. They are not playing in the exact same scheme, or on the field the same amount. I wasn't saying it was a complete picture. I was just saying there are some conclusions you can draw from the data presented. You can't know everything because team, talent around them, scheme.... it all factors in. 

 

And the post he replied to wasn't about that anyway. It was about the Bills struggles with contain vs the Dolphins. I am a big Rousseau fan, but even he had some issues against the run on Saturday, even though overall he has been one of the NFL's premier edge defenders vs the run.

[Freddie's Dead]

Rousseau was the right pick.  AJ is a double D and Boogie is a C cup right now.

[TPS]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea, that's totally fair but I wasn't saying here is every single bit of data - it is a fair point to say "how many snaps are guys playing" but there will be lots of different reasons guys play fewer snaps. Rousseau plays fewer snaps because while a starter since day 1 the Bills are a heavy rotation team up front. Someone like Oweh has more snaps but isn't a starter and is used mainly as a situational rusher. Of course there is nuance about usage with all of those players. They are not playing in the exact same scheme, or on the field the same amount. I wasn't saying it was a complete picture. I was just saying there are some conclusions you can draw from the data presented. You can't know everything because team, talent around them, scheme.... it all factors in. 

 

And the post he replied to wasn't about that anyway. It was about the Bills struggles with contain vs the Dolphins. I am a big Rousseau fan, but even he had some issues against the run on Saturday, even though overall he has been one of the NFL's premier edge defenders vs the run.

I agree there are many factors to consider when trying to compare stats, but, at minimum, they should be adjusted for the number of snaps each has played. 

Also, while Bado replied to the "setting the edge" issue, he still made the same point in that response as well:

Quote

 

I appreciate your analysis but I think you should acknowledge that your comparison between the two was a bit skewed without weighing playing time at all.

As I said from the outset.........Rousseau is never going to look flashy doing it...........but he makes more plays than anyone from that class...........he just doesn't get enough opportunities because of the rotation.    

 

I always appreciate your analyses, and not trying to be overly critical, but, based on the current stats and adjusting for snaps played, Bado is correct in that Rousseau "makes more plays than anyone from that class". 

Would he be the first DE off the board in a re-draft?  I'd certainly give him the "edge"...

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, TPS said:

 

Would he be the first DE off the board in a re-draft?  I'd certainly give him the "edge"...

 

Nah, it'd be Phillips. Greg would go higher than he did, he'd be DE2 but the reasons Phillips was the first off the board still apply, he has demonstrated the production and the thing that stopped him being a top 10 type prospect - the various flags Badol referred to above - have proven not to hold him back. I do think Greg is probably the best all around defensive end out of the class. But when it comes to the draft team prioritise pass rush and it would be Phillips first. 

[JohnNord]

On 12/21/2022 at 8:07 AM, GunnerBill said:

In the run up to the 2021 NFL Draft the consensus was that the spot where the Bills needed to add a young difference maker the most was at defensive end. Their starting ends in the 2020 season that ended in AFCCG defeat in Kansas City were Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison, both into their 30s. The backups were AJ Epenesa who had struggled to make an impact as a rookie 2nd rounder and Trent Murphy who was a vet backup at best. 

 

The issue for the Bills was that the edge class was lacking in top end talent and the views on the top guys were pretty jumbled, especially beyond the consensus top 2. Just to take a few examples: 

 

Draftek's top 5: #1 Jaelan Phillips (#16 overall); #2 Kwity Paye (#17 overall); #3 Azeez Ojulari (#18 overall); #4 Joseph Ossai (#35 overall); #5 Greg Rousseau (#36 overall).

Matt Miller's top 5: #1 Jaelan Phillips (#16 overall); #2 Kwity Paye (#19 overall); #3 Joseph Ossai (#27 overall); #4 Azeez Ojulari (#28 overall); #5 Jayson Oweh (#37 overall). 

Bucky Brooks's top 5: #1 Jaelan Phillips (n/a); #2 Kwity Paye (n/a); #3 Greg Rousseau (n/a); #4 Boogie Basham (n/a); #5 Joe Tryon (n/a).

My top 5: #1 Kwity Paye (#22 overall); #2 Jaelan Phillips (#24 overall); #3 Greg Rousseau (#26 overall); #4 Joseph Ossai (#32 overall); #5 Ronnie Perkins (#45 overall). 

 

When draft day came Jaelen Phillips came off the board first at #18 to Miami and then Paye followed shortly afterwards going #21 to the Colts. The third edge defender off the board was a total curve ball as the New Orleans Saints chose Payton Turner out of Houston at #28. The remainder of the class was there for the Bills to choose from at #30 and as we know they selected Greg Rousseau. A further 4 edge players then went before the Bills double dipped to take Boogie Basham at #61 in round two. Given we are nearly at the end of the second season and there has been a lot of chatter about Groot's strong season recently I thought it was worth re-visiting that class and looking at how they have all performed. So here goes - in the order they were slected:

 

#18 - Jaelan Phillips - Miami:

17 starts

15.5 sacks; 57 pressures

16 tackles for loss (TFL)

3 passes defensed

1 forced fumble

 

#21 - Kwity Paye - Indianapolis:

24 starts

10 sacks; 30 pressures

12 TFL

1 pass defensed 

1 forced fumble

 

#28 - Payton Turner - New Orleans:

0 starts

3 sacks; 12 pressures

8 TFL

0 passes defensed

0 forced fumbles

 

#30 - Greg Rousseu - Buffalo:

28 starts

11 sacks; 40 pressures

16 TFL

8 passes defensed; 1 interception

2 forced fumbles

 

#31 - Jayson Oweh - Baltimore

6 starts

7.5 sacks; 41 pressures

11 TFL

1 pass defensed

4 forced fumbles

 

#32 - Joe Tryon - Tampa Bay:

19 starts

8 sacks; 42 pressures

10 TFL

5 passes defensed

0 forced fumbles

 

#50 - Azeez Ojulari - New York Giants:

17 starts

12.5 sacks; 39 pressures

10 TFL

3 passes defensed

4 forced fumbles

 

#54 - Dayo Odeyingbo - Indianapolis:

2 starts

4 sacks; 16 pressures

3 TFL

0 passes defensed

1 forced fumble

 

#61 - Boogie Basham - Buffalo:

0 starts

4.5 sacks; 17 pressures

5 TFL

2 passes defensed; 1 interception

0 forced fumbles

 

#69 - Joseph Ossai - Cincinnati (*missed entire rookie season with an ACL tear):

0 starts

2 sacks; 9 pressures

2 TFL

1 pass defensed

0 forced fumbles

 

Ronnie Perkins (the only guy to feature in one of the top 5s above who I haven't broken down) has spent two years on IR having been picked by the Patriots at the end of round 3 and is yet to play a down in the NFL. 

 

So what can we conclude? I think firstly that the draft consensus that there was no superstar pass rusher was probably right. However, there were multiple good players in the class despite that. I think if you were re-drafting today Jaelan Phillips would still be the first guy off the board (and would probably go a bit higher - one of the reasons he didn't go higher originally was concussion concerns). Greg Rousseau would likely be the 2nd guy selected and would be a top 20 pick. Ojulari would probably go next, and be a first rounder, though his issue on draft day would still hinder his value a little in that he is really a specific fit as a 3-4 OLB rather than someone able to play with their hand in the dirt on a regular basis in a 4 man front. Likewise Tryon is much more of a 3-4 fit but would still go roughly where he did I think - at the end of the first and I think Kwity Paye who was the one I felt best suited a 4-3 would still probably be a first rounder but only just. As for Joseph Ossai - his moment is about to come. He had a career high 50% of the defensive snaps last week for Cincy and with Hubbard and Hendrikson down he might be about to assume a critical role in their Superbowl chase. 

 

Finally, with my Bills fandom hat on, in the first round Brandon Beane made a very good decision. His second round pick of Basham has yet to prove its value in the same way. The Bills said that Basham was on their list for their first pick (although hinted that might have been with a small trade down into early round 2). I think he would have been very poor value earlier. 

Much like AJ Epinesa, Boogie Basham will go down largely as a bad pick.  In both cases the Bills are getting a replacement level rotational DE piece for a 2nd round pick.  
 

Not exactly the ROI you want to see.  
 

 

On 12/21/2022 at 9:46 AM, SoCal Deek said:

 Basham looked completely disinterested on many plays Saturday night. 

He’s not disinterested.. he just isn’t very good 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah, it'd be Phillips. Greg would go higher than he did, he'd be DE2 but the reasons Phillips was the first off the board still apply, he has demonstrated the production and the thing that stopped him being a top 10 type prospect - the various flags Badol referred to above - have proven not to hold him back. I do think Greg is probably the best all around defensive end out of the class. But when it comes to the draft team prioritise pass rush and it would be Phillips first. 

 

 

I thought we had a graph on here recently that illustrated that Rousseau had one of the very highest pressure rates in the league in addition to his impressive counting stats?  

 

I don't assume that playing more snaps won't decrease down-by-down production........but if Groot has the prorated 13 sacks on the 684 snaps that Phillips has.......while Phillips himself has 7.......do you still think Phillips goes first?    I don't think it's that cut and dried.

 

There is no denying that Phillips LOOKS like an elite pass rusher and GR does not.

 

But we aren't unfamiliar with that concept here.    Jerry Hughes looked like an elite pass rusher and had the pressure rates to back it up.........but he simply didn't make a high volume of plays.   Phillips is better at making plays than Jerry was but he doesn't produce the volume of plays that end in essentially fruitless downs that GR does when he is on the field........sacks, forced turnovers, TFL, PD, run stuffs.     It's not even that close.

[Beck Water]

On 12/21/2022 at 7:07 AM, GunnerBill said:

Finally, with my Bills fandom hat on, in the first round Brandon Beane made a very good decision. His second round pick of Basham has yet to prove its value in the same way. The Bills said that Basham was on their list for their first pick (although hinted that might have been with a small trade down into early round 2). I think he would have been very poor value earlier. 

 

Basham with Creed Humphries on the board still chaps my grits.

 

I still have hopes for Basham developing, but I think he's gonna be an AJE/Knox type player where if the Bills do get value from him, it's gonna be a "light bulb turns on just before he has to get paid" kinda thing.

33 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Much like AJ Epinesa, Boogie Basham will go down largely as a bad pick.  In both cases the Bills are getting a replacement level rotational DE piece for a 2nd round pick. 

 

Most people seem to think AJE is playing pretty well this season.  Not sure who you have in mind as a "replacement level" (ie PS/STer) equivalent in play.  "Rotational DE", this IS Frazier and McDermott's defense, they are all rotational.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Beck Water

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I thought we had a graph on here recently that illustrated that Rousseau had one of the very highest pressure rates in the league in addition to his impressive counting stats?  

 

I don't assume that playing more snaps won't decrease down-by-down production........but if Groot has the prorated 13 sacks on the 684 snaps that Phillips has.......while Phillips himself has 7.......do you still think Phillips goes first?    I don't think it's that cut and dried.

 

There is no denying that Phillips LOOKS like an elite pass rusher and GR does not.

 

But we aren't unfamiliar with that concept here.    Jerry Hughes looked like an elite pass rusher and had the pressure rates to back it up.........but he simply didn't make a high volume of plays.   Phillips is better at making plays than Jerry was but he doesn't produce the volume of plays that end in essentially fruitless downs that GR does when he is on the field........sacks, forced turnovers, TFL, PD, run stuffs.     It's not even that close.

 

Meh. I don't wanna sound like I am banging on Greg. I liked the pick I like the player and I think he is trending towards elite. I do still think Phillips goes first though. And that might be partly how he looks doing it. He has the most prototypical skill set GMs look for. Greg is more of a unicorn.

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Most people seem to think AJE is playing pretty well this season. 

 

He has flashed some rush skills definitely. 5.5 sacks as a rotational backup is no mean feat. He is still inconsistent down in and down out though and he does freaking infuriate me at times losing contain. Probably his best year as a pro, but @JohnNord is right - this is his 3rd year and he has flashed in a backup role. That is still poor ROI from a 2nd rounder. 

 

As for Boogie... maybe I am not the best judge because I never liked him really as a prospect. He was an older prospect at or close to his physical ceiling coming into the league without the refined skillset to win. That to me is still the case.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Meh. I don't wanna sound like I am banging on Greg. I liked the pick I like the player and I think he is trending towards elite. I do still think Phillips goes first though. And that might be partly how he looks doing it. He has the most prototypical skill set GMs look for. Greg is more of a unicorn.

 

He has flashed some rush skills definitely. 5.5 sacks as a rotational backup is no mean feat. He is still inconsistent down in and down out though and he does freaking infuriate me at times losing contain. Probably his best year as a pro, but @JohnNord is right - this is his 3rd year and he has flashed in a backup role. That is still poor ROI from a 2nd rounder. 

 

As for Boogie... maybe I am not the best judge because I never liked him really as a prospect. He was an older prospect at or close to his physical ceiling coming into the league without the refined skillset to win. That to me is still the case.

 

 

Meh?  Yeah I guess this was a sneaky Groot-shade thread.    I gave you the benefit of the doubt with my original response and then with your follow up it became clear that you had created a stat driven argument only for confirmation bias purposes.........Phillips was your guy and you are standing by it. 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Meh?  Yeah I guess this was a sneaky Groot-shade thread.    I gave you the benefit of the doubt with my original response and then with your follow up it became clear that you had created a stat driven argument only for confirmation bias purposes.........Phillips was your guy and you are standing by it. 

 

 

Phillips was not my guy. Not by any stretch.