Kurt Warner Breakdown of Josh Allen in the Miami Game

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't think Warner watches enough of the Bills to know how inconsistent the oline play is

 

If he had, he would never criticize rolling out and looking for Morris 1v1 instead of trying to hang in the pocket and hit Singletary on that Texas just hoping everyone can hold their block 1v1

 

Look, these are the same pundits who at the beginning of the season were calling this the deepest roster in the league by far and are now (correctly) questioning whether there's even an above average level of talent on the offensive side of the ball minus QB

Link where Warner or Cosell called us the “deepest roster by far”?

 

Or Simms for that matter

 

Not at all sure it’s the same pundits

 

I think Warner watches the Bills a lot

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Beck Water

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Take it for what it is. Im sure some old time butterfly style goalies would be harsher in their critiques of Hasek too … doesn’t make them wrong based on their POV

[Beck Water]

Jim Kubiak talks about some of the same plays that Warner breaks down. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-tight-end-and-running-back-high-low-concept-helped-bills-qb-josh/article_df25bcb2-7ffe-11ed-bc7e-0354648364b9.html

 

On some, he sees the same things.  On others, he either doesn't, or doesn't comment on them.

 

Kubiak on the strip sack:

Quote

The dreadful third quarter carried into the fourth quarter on Buffalo’s ninth offensive possession. The Bills’ defense had stopped the Dolphins, forced a punt and put Allen and the offense on the 49-yard line with a terrific opportunity to score points on a short field.

 

Here, Miami was again in man-to-man coverage and, as Allen stepped up in the pocket and shuffled to his left, Jaelan Phillips got around right tackle Spencer Brown and sacked Allen, stripping the football away just as Allen was about to deliver it down the field. The video showed Allen looking for a deeper throw into the middle of the field, rather than taking what appeared to be an easy completion underneath to Cole Beasley to Allen’s left.

 

They both comment that there was an easy completion to Cole, and that the strip sack resulted from Josh buying time and looking for a deep throw when an easy completion was there.  And I think that's a theme that critics of our OL need to consider.  They are sometimes giving Josh more than enough time to make a completion - they just aren't always able to give Josh enough time to make the deeper completion he's trying to hit.  And that's compounded by defenses studying Allen's tendencies, because they know they can plaster the deeper options and give less attention to the shallow throws as Allen won't take them.

 

Where Warner and Kubiak differ in what they see/say, I think a HOF QB who got there due to his abilities to read the field and manipulate defenders might see options Navy's best QB misses, and his interpretation is at least worth hearing and considering - but YMMV.  And BTW, Warner did not always have the benefit of a great OL.  Some years yes, some years no.

 

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

They both comment that there was an easy completion to Cole, and that the strip sack resulted from Josh buying time and looking for a deep throw when an easy completion was there.  And I think that's a theme that critics of our OL need to consider.

 

Okay, so should Allen literally never look for deep throws? Should he assume before every snap that Spencer Brown will lose his rep and forget about even trying to make explosive plays? Maybe against the Lions instead of waiting in the pocket for Diggs to get open downfield he should have just thrown a check down and conceded overtime? There's no good answers here. In general I think the offense could use more quick pass designs, but you have to hit explosive plays to consistently win football games. If he had another second of protection he probably gets that pass off and who knows if it's completed but it's a chance at an explosive play. I just think it's a little unfair to Allen to criticize him for letting plays develop. It's not like there was a jailbreak on the play, Spencer Brown just got beat.

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Jim Kubiak talks about some of the same plays that Warner breaks down. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-tight-end-and-running-back-high-low-concept-helped-bills-qb-josh/article_df25bcb2-7ffe-11ed-bc7e-0354648364b9.html

 

On some, he sees the same things.  On others, he either doesn't, or doesn't comment on them.

 

Kubiak on the strip sack:

 

They both comment that there was an easy completion to Cole, and that the strip sack resulted from Josh buying time and looking for a deep throw when an easy completion was there.  And I think that's a theme that critics of our OL need to consider.  They are sometimes giving Josh more than enough time to make a completion - they just aren't always able to give Josh enough time to make the deeper completion he's trying to hit.  And that's compounded by defenses studying Allen's tendencies, because they know they can plaster the deeper options and give less attention to the shallow throws as Allen won't take them.

 

Where Warner and Kubiak differ in what they see/say, I think a HOF QB who got there due to his abilities to read the field and manipulate defenders might see options Navy's best QB misses, and his interpretation is at least worth hearing and considering - but YMMV.  And BTW, Warner did not always have the benefit of a great OL.  Some years yes, some years no.

 

 

 

I think Cover 1 also talked about Warners film review, but they thought that Warner reads and diagnoses based on how he played - on schedule and from the pocket.

 

They also disagreed with several of Warners takes because they do not fit with how the Bills run the offense and the expectations.

 

They specifically mentioned that they thought Warner struggled with off production offenses that do not read and play in the same rhythm that he was used to.

 

They stated many of his reads would be fine if he was the QB, but they are not how the Bills run the offense with Josh at QB and Kurt has failed to adapt to these new schemes.

 

We will see, but I am not sure that a Hall of Fame QB is better than a guy that has studied the Bills system for a longer period of time.

 

Both points of view may be valid, but I would trust guys that actually see practice when they can and talk to the players - over a guy watching the film to understand what the Bills are doing and seeing.

 

Not a big deal - just another point of view.

 

 

 

 

[Logic]

First I'll say that I think the video was quite fair. I'm not always a fan of Warner's analysis, and I'm usually among the camp that senses a bit of a subtle dislike of Josh on his part. This video was not one of those instances, though, in my opinion.

My main takeaway is that all season long we've been saying "players aren't making plays for Josh!" and "he has to do it all himself!" and "Dorsey needs to draw up better plays", and while there is some truth to all of those things, I'm starting to see more and more that it's not the whole truth.

There are times -- some shown in this video, some seen in other cutups and analysis, some recently brought up by Isaiah McKenzie on Tyler Dunne's show -- where guys ARE open. Where plays ARE well designed. Where Josh is refusing to take the gimmes and the layups and is instead making life harder on himself. Some of this will never go away. To some extent, looking for the biggest play and the biggest possible gain on every down is just who Josh is. It is, in part, what makes him so dangerous and so unique.

On the other hand, Josh has been at his best throughout his career when he's willing to take what the defense gives him, to take the throws to the flats and the quick hitches and slants, and then hit the big plays when defenses start to creep up. There are times, like the strip sack against Miami, where not taking a 4 yard gain resulted in a turnover or other negative play that greatly impacted the game in a bad way for the Bills.

This video and some others recently have me more encouraged about Ken Dorsey, for one thing. There are still times that his play design (or the execution of the design by the players) is sloppy. For instance, we see two receivers end up in the same spot far too often. But I think that, by and large, there are open guys on most plays, and Josh -- for whatever reason -- is either failing to see them or refusing to throw to them. I'm also encouraged that the supporting cast is a bit better than what we've all been screaming all season. 

My hope is that the offense has a bit of momentum from the Dolphins win and that Josh is now fully healed (he said today his elbow feels better than it has in a long time) and that the hiccups of a new OC are starting to get ironed out, and that things improve from here on out. The biggest way to make that happen is for Josh to start taking the layups. So, as much as it pains me to say it, Kurt Warner is right!

[GoBills808]

19 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Link where Warner or Cosell called us the “deepest roster by far”?

 

Or Simms for that matter

 

Not at all sure it’s the same pundits

 

I think Warner watches the Bills a lot

 

 

I watched the Morris TD again

 

Allen actually motions Singletary out of pass pro into that route to lift coverage from Morris, the play was definitely not designed to go to him. Warner is just wrong

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I watched the Morris TD again

 

Allen actually motions Singletary out of pass pro into that route to lift coverage from Morris, the play was definitely not designed to go to him. Warner is just wrong

 

I think you may be working a little bit too hard to "prove" Warner is "wrong".

 

When an RB is motioned out of pass pro into a route, he becomes a route running option - a receiver, a choice the QB can throw to - part of the design of the play.

 

The route Motor ran contained what I believe is termed a "rub" (though my understanding of how the terms "rubs" and "picks" gets used is fuzzy) with Morris and his defender essentially screening off the defender assigned to Morris from Singletary - giving him a head start to get open.    If Motor had an option and ran for the sideline, he would pull coverage off of Morris more directly if that were the intent.

 

It's possible that if Josh held the spy with his eyes and by setting his feet, the "spy" would pick up Motor, though I think the Dolphins respect Josh's feet too much for that to be his assignment.

 

I believe the point is, there are a lot of people yelling that Dorsey doesn't scheme guys open in the red zone and we're relying on WR to "beat their man" and Josh to buy time with his feet and create.  But what if that's wrong?  What if Dorsey has in fact designed quick pass options which scheme guys open against different coverages, and Josh isn't taking them, when he could?

 

I give up now, because I think this is one of these instances where nothing I could possibly say would possible cause you to reconsider your POV

 

 

[Eastport bills]

When did Kurt become an expert on critical analysis of what will determine success at the QB position? This league has never seen a talent with the skills of JA17. I’m not even talking exclusively  about his arm talent running ability, but more his pocket presence and escapability in the pocket. Our O-line routinely allows free rushers and Josh avoids certain sacks that Warner gave up being a statue for the most part. Naturally Josh has to overcome poor route running because when teams double Diggs, we don’t have a true number 2 receiver and McKenzie is spotty in the slot. Teams have to protect against Josh running when flushed so he makes plays off schedule as a part of our offense. Kurt got a gig as an analyst but his criticism of Josh has a bias towards the type QB he is. Kurt was a journeyman underachieving QB for most of his career other than his few years with an incredible surrounding cast at St. Louis. That doesn’t qualify him as knowing more than a Bills follower.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think you may be working a little bit too hard to "prove" Warner is "wrong".

 

When an RB is motioned out of pass pro into a route, he becomes a route running option - a receiver, a choice the QB can throw to - part of the design of the play.

 

The route Motor ran contained what I believe is termed a "rub" (though my understanding of how the terms "rubs" and "picks" gets used is fuzzy) with Morris and his defender essentially screening off the defender assigned to Morris from Singletary - giving him a head start to get open.    If Motor had an option and ran for the sideline, he would pull coverage off of Morris more directly if that were the intent.

 

It's possible that if Josh held the spy with his eyes and by setting his feet, the "spy" would pick up Motor, though I think the Dolphins respect Josh's feet too much for that to be his assignment.

 

I believe the point is, there are a lot of people yelling that Dorsey doesn't scheme guys open in the red zone and we're relying on WR to "beat their man" and Josh to buy time with his feet and create.  But what if that's wrong?  What if Dorsey has in fact designed quick pass options which scheme guys open against different coverages, and Josh isn't taking them, when he could?

 

I give up now, because I think this is one of these instances where nothing I could possibly say would possible cause you to reconsider your POV

 

 

Couple points (you are of course free to not respond)

 

Singletary is running the RB half of a Texas concept without the post, which may be why Warner incorrectly designates him as the read

 

QB doesn't hold or move a spy with his eyes, the spy goes where the QB goes. He doesn't care about where the QB is looking.

 

Singletary is not the read because Allen literally never looks his way. Morris w inside leverage and a defender who is trailing is the right throw.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Couple points (you are of course free to not respond)

 

Singletary is running the RB half of a Texas concept without the post, which may be why Warner incorrectly designates him as the read

 

QB doesn't hold or move a spy with his eyes, the spy goes where the QB goes. He doesn't care about where the QB is looking.

 

Singletary is not the read because Allen literally never looks his way. Morris w inside leverage and a defender who is trailing is the right throw.

 

 

 

Yea I don't think that play was every designed to go to Singletary either. I think it is a designed play to Morris. I thought it was actually quite a nice design compared to some of what we have seen in the redzone at points this season. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I don't think that play was every designed to go to Singletary either. I think it is a designed play to Morris. I thought it was actually quite a nice design compared to some of what we have seen in the redzone at points this season. 

I think it's pretty obviously not either. Singletary can either stay in to chip Jaelan Phillips and then probably leak into flat, or Allen can motion him into that route to lift coverage but he's not a read. It's a throwaway imo.

 

This play is obviously for Morris, I mean Allen looks left presnap at Davis, McKenzie, and Diggs trips and then never even glances that way again? And Warner is trying to say Singletary is the throw here? LMFAO

[Rochesterfan]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I watched the Morris TD again

 

Allen actually motions Singletary out of pass pro into that route to lift coverage from Morris, the play was definitely not designed to go to him. Warner is just wrong

 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think you may be working a little bit too hard to "prove" Warner is "wrong".

 

When an RB is motioned out of pass pro into a route, he becomes a route running option - a receiver, a choice the QB can throw to - part of the design of the play.

 

The route Motor ran contained what I believe is termed a "rub" (though my understanding of how the terms "rubs" and "picks" gets used is fuzzy) with Morris and his defender essentially screening off the defender assigned to Morris from Singletary - giving him a head start to get open.    If Motor had an option and ran for the sideline, he would pull coverage off of Morris more directly if that were the intent.

 

It's possible that if Josh held the spy with his eyes and by setting his feet, the "spy" would pick up Motor, though I think the Dolphins respect Josh's feet too much for that to be his assignment.

 

I believe the point is, there are a lot of people yelling that Dorsey doesn't scheme guys open in the red zone and we're relying on WR to "beat their man" and Josh to buy time with his feet and create.  But what if that's wrong?  What if Dorsey has in fact designed quick pass options which scheme guys open against different coverages, and Josh isn't taking them, when he could?

 

I give up now, because I think this is one of these instances where nothing I could possibly say would possible cause you to reconsider your POV

 

 

 

The reality is you are both correct (as is Warner).

 

I believe they shifted the RB to confirm the Dolphins we’re playing Man Coverage.

 

Then Singletary job was to bring his coverage guy up and to the middle to leave Morris 1:1.

 

The issue is the LB - at the snap it is not clear if he is a spy, potential blitzers, or a drop into coverage as they have an in breaking route from the top of the screen and Singletary moving toward the middle.

 

I believe based on Tendencies- the Bills 100% expected Man/Spy from the Dolphins and Josh moving to his right confirmed the LB was a spy.  
 

Where I disagree with Kurt is that in this offense - I don’t think Singletary was a read at all.  The play was Morris 1:1 and Josh rolling out with a run/Pass option.  When the LB broke to keep contain and the coverage on Morris in trail - Josh went for the pass.  If the coverage had been deeper - I think Josh tries to run it in and only has the LB to beat.

 

If Kurt had been my QB and less athletic- the read is probably to Singletary as the LB would not be in Spy coverage and would have dropped back toward the goal line.  It also probably impacted Singletary’s coverage as his guy looked to maintain outside leverage - I think to keep eyes on Josh.  I think with Kurt as QB he attacks Singletary quicker.

 

Again - I don’t think Warner is miss diagnosing the play, but as Cover 1 put it - He is diagnosing it as if he was the QB not Josh and the 2 have different was of reading how defenses attack them.

 

I also think that Dorsey has done a fine job of using players to manipulate defenses and scheming guys open and Josh sometimes decides he would rather take a 15-20 yard chunk shot over a 5 yard gimme.  We saw in Miami in September- Josh took the Gimme’s all game and they bogged down in the red zone when 1 guy finally couldn’t make a play.

[HappyDays]

So much debate over a play that was thrown for a TD. The all-22 world has gone crazy. I trust Allen in the scheme that he's been personally running for five years now to know what he's doing. That doesn't mean it's always going to be perfect. But if an analyst finds a reason to criticize this play, it's because they're looking for one. I've become so sick of people watching film assuming that they know everyone's individual assignment and the reads the QB is supposed to follow. Kurt Warner is a HOF QB but not in this scheme in this offense with Josh Allen's skill set. If a play ends in a passing TD, unless it was a complete fluke you can say that the QB and the pass catcher did their job correctly. It isn't that complicated.

[2003Contenders]

Because of Josh's unique talent and skill set, I think it is fair to say that he is able to defy the conventional thinking on any given play. The play to close out the first half certainly comes to mind. Any decent coach would say that what Josh did there was NOT what you are supposed to do, when a sure 3 points are potentially abandoned. However, the OUTCOME of the play is that the Bills scored 7 points instead.

 

It's is almost like evaluators like Warner feel compelled to tell the viewers at home, "do not try this on your own".

[Tanoros]

21 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay, so should Allen literally never look for deep throws? Should he assume before every snap that Spencer Brown will lose his rep and forget about even trying to make explosive plays? Maybe against the Lions instead of waiting in the pocket for Diggs to get open downfield he should have just thrown a check down and conceded overtime? There's no good answers here. In general I think the offense could use more quick pass designs, but you have to hit explosive plays to consistently win football games. If he had another second of protection he probably gets that pass off and who knows if it's completed but it's a chance at an explosive play. I just think it's a little unfair to Allen to criticize him for letting plays develop. It's not like there was a jailbreak on the play, Spencer Brown just got beat.

Your a very right. In many ways Allen is still a young qb, and finding the right balance between being aggressive and taking the easy stuff is something he still needs to figure out. 
 

The way I see it, we have games (a lot this year) where we fail to put drives together because of many compounded reasons (stuff at the line for no gain or little, pre/during play penalty, dropped pass, tough contested drop, and throw away). When we are having these issues, there are plenty of times Allen will look to hit a deep throw, instead of taking the easy stuff and getting a drive going. What I’m getting at, is besides finding the balance in general, I think Allen could benefit from recognizing in game, when it’s time to dial up the aggressiveness or dial it back. 
 

Allen has worked hard every offseason to improve, and I expect finding the right balance between being aggressive or not is something he will work on for the rest of his career. 

[bouds]

This was a balanced assessment, QBs are not going to make the perfect read every play, it’s critical that these issues get addressed.  That said, Gabe Davis is not that dude, Warner showed multiple plays where Gabe just ran poor routes and took himself out of being a legitimate pass option. Need to upgrade.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay, so should Allen literally never look for deep throws? Should he assume before every snap that Spencer Brown will lose his rep and forget about even trying to make explosive plays? Maybe against the Lions instead of waiting in the pocket for Diggs to get open downfield he should have just thrown a check down and conceded overtime? There's no good answers here. In general I think the offense could use more quick pass designs, but you have to hit explosive plays to consistently win football games. If he had another second of protection he probably gets that pass off and who knows if it's completed but it's a chance at an explosive play. I just think it's a little unfair to Allen to criticize him for letting plays develop. It's not like there was a jailbreak on the play, Spencer Brown just got beat.

But can't force the defense to tee off bullrush using 4 to the QB. They'll take away middle to deep throws. All about playing like Chess like vs teams. As well as not pinning all on Allen he has a human mind like all of us too much is bad things.  I'm for the deep throw if it is there. Underneath throw if there. Run when need to run. Being balanced.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Buffalo Bills Fan