Kurt Warner Breakdown of Josh Allen in the Miami Game

[Beast]

Kurt Warner wishes he could have played the position like Josh Allen does.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Beast

[YattaOkasan]

7 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

I will never forget Bradshaw saying Josh was not accurate enough and "never would be".  F him.  You don't see him say a word about Allen now, bc he eats crow every time it somes up

Bradshaw is def not worth listening too.  His best completion percentage was 62.5%.  He doesnt know what it takes to be accurate.  His TD % is good at 5.4% (a tick over Josh's career 5.3), but his INT % is putrid at 5.4%.  Overall, he has a below average HoF score for someone thats in (from PFR) and his most famous play is a lucky bounce.  Combined he played with an all time great defense I think he gets much more respect than he deserves. 

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Agree completely

 

 

Exactly.  The Bills punted 5 times and had a strip-sack fumble where Josh was trying to extend the play.  We ended the game with an absolutely BRILLIANT ~6 minute, 15 play drive.  But get points on even 1 or 2 of those drives that ended in punts, and we're just eating clock on that last drive, not depending upon it to win.

 

 

No one said anything about "without moving".

I don't think Warner watches enough of the Bills to know how inconsistent the oline play is

 

If he had, he would never criticize rolling out and looking for Morris 1v1 instead of trying to hang in the pocket and hit Singletary on that Texas just hoping everyone can hold their block 1v1

 

Look, these are the same pundits who at the beginning of the season were calling this the deepest roster in the league by far and are now (correctly) questioning whether there's even an above average level of talent on the offensive side of the ball minus QB

[starrymessenger]

I dont think Allen is less cerebral than Tua, or even Warner for that matter. I've too often seen him make the right read and execute properly (though more so last year) to believe that. He's also quite capable of getting the ball out fast when he wants to. If he declines an easy lay up for a lower percentage chunk yardage option it's not because he doesn't understand or because he's limited in his ability to read and react. Its because he's Josh Allen and his blood is up. Josh Allen can do things probably no other QB can do because of his transcendent physical ability. I think he could roll to his right and complete a go route down the opposite side. I'm all for his using his physical skills to greatest advantage but I've got this feeling that playing Pop Warner hero ball is not what you want as regular fare and that it could catch up to you, maybe at the least opportune moment. Take the layups. Try to turn broken plays into game changers only when you have to i.e. when the called plays are unavailable. I want Josh to have an even better career than Brett did and I think he can probably do that (with some help from his friends).

Speaking of his friends, I take Kurt's point regarding the Bills WRs running poor routes. It's something other game day commenters have properly noted as well as some posters. Too often two receivers in close proximity. Can't imagine that's how those plays were meant to run.

[Doc]

Did Kurt roll out of bed right before filming that?

[CoudyBills]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is not doing Warner credit as a QB.  No, he was not a running QB, and yes, he was coached to stay in the pocket, but he was one of those "teflon" guys we saw like a younger Tom Brady or Drew Brees - he had that uncanny body sense of where defenders were and could just take a step and make the defender miss or duck and let the defender sail over him then make the throw. 

 

In addition, how to read defensive coverages post-snap and identify the best option has not changed.  It's not a "style of play" thing, it's seeing the leverage, understanding what the defense is giving you, and taking it.

 

Look.  Here's the series from the very first play Warner breaks down (click to enlarge).  We converted 2 1st Downs, then Punted.  Miami then proceeded to go on a 14 play drive, including a 4th down conversion, ending in a FG.

The play Warner breaks down is 1st and 10 incomplete to McKenzie.

 

Allen is going for the "kill shot" to the WR running the deep over route, who happens to be McKenzie on this play.  But the CB is initially dropping to cover the over route McKenzie is running, and there's a safety back there as well who closes by the time Allen pulls the trigger.  (Eventually, Allen gets the CB to bite and move forward to cover Diggs and open up the deep route to McK, but by then the safety has closed)

 

Allen he has three, count them, THREE, receivers who are wide open early in the play, including 2 underneath guys who could gain some yards, and Diggs, who is our BEST receiver no question, open as *****  and past the 1st down marker.  McKenzie is the "kill shot" if Allen completes the throw, but he's actually the best covered of the WR.  Allen throws to him, the pass is broken up by the corner we see dropping back to take it away.

 

Allen hits Diggs on time instead, we get a first down and maybe some more, we keep moving the ball down the field and at least wind up with points.  

 

 

 

He isn't "coaching Josh down", he is pointing out that Josh has options to sustain drives that he's not taking.  It's the difference between NEEDING that drive at the end of the game (and the DPI that might not be called) to win, vs. going into the 4th with a comfortable lead.  

 

People complain that Dorsey isn't "scheming guys open" or they "see no evidence" that there are open guys underneath that Allen isn't hitting.  Here are 3 WR schemed open including Diggs, and Allen is choosing the least open guy.  People complain that the OL isn't giving Allen enough pass protection.  Well, Allen has more than enough pocket time to throw to Diggs, he's asking more of his OL so that he can wait for a deeper option.  The OL would look a lot better in pass pro, too, if Allen would take some of these easier shots.

 

Moreover, the tape is out - it doesn't matter that's McKenzie back there.  It could be Davis, it could be Diggs.  Allen will almost always choose his deepest option if he thinks there's a chance, and teams know it and cheat their coverage that way which is why the deep options aren't working as well as they did earlier in the season (and why we keep stalling out and punting early in games).  It's why you see Singletary and Knox  with enough green around them to plant a ***** Christmas Tree farm, and why you see Diggs, one of the best and most scary receivers in the league, with so much space around him.

 

This is really Football 101 and critiquing Warner as an old fuddy-duddy whose football time has passed when he points this out misses the fair, IMHO. 

Last but not least, why on earth would you choose the judgement of that bloviating never-was Rex Ryan, over a 2x 1st team all-pro with 3 SB appearances and a SB ring? 

This, 100%.  Some of the responses here are so homerish it makes me wonder if they think Josh is their boyfriend.  The x's and o's are the x's and o's no matter who is playing.  

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, CoudyBills said:

This, 100%.  Some of the responses here are so homerish it makes me wonder if they think Josh is their boyfriend.  The x's and o's are the x's and o's no matter who is playing.  

Did you watch the video? Can you explain how Allen is supposed to 'hold a spy with his eyes'?

[Rochesterfan]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Thanks for posting but I only got through 9 minutes before giving up. Kurt Warner clearly doesn't like Allen's style and it colors his evaluation. So on the 1st drive he talks about the miss to McKenzie on 3rd down. He says a throw to Davis at the sticks is the easier throw. But the read to McKenzie is fine, he's open Allen just sails the pass. The play was bad but not for the reason Kurt Warner says. Then on the TD to Morris he criticizes Allen for immediately running out of the pocket. I guess Kurt Warner hasn't watched a lot of Allen film, because Allen runs to the right all the time to set up an easier throw. He isn't bailing the pocket, he immediately sees that Morris is in single man coverage with the safety in trail so he runs to the right to set up a good angle and then throws a dime. That is the kind of throwing platform Allen prefers. This play in particular was unbelievably poor analysis so that was the end of the video for me.

 

I am going to try and watch more later, but I am 2 plays in on Knox’s catch and Warner misdiagnosed the defense.  He called it a single high safety and diagnosed what to do, but if you watch at the snap they switch it up to a 2 high defense with the outside CB dropping into a deep half look.

 

I then saw the Cover 1 Knox video and they confirmed this.

 

I am not sure that Kurt is actually doing the work on these - I think someone else is putting it together and Kurt is doing the minimum.

 

Even the 1st play where Josh overthrew the target - Kurt is like take the easy throw, but you can see Miami dropping off and baiting that throw - I don’t think Kurt is anywhere near as caught up on defenses as he tries to sound and I think he is talking as if it was still the early 2000’s when he played.

 

So far I am not impressed with his understanding of the Bills offense and his lack of seeing the Defense.  

If he was the QB - both throws would have gone short to the underneath routes for small gains, but he would not have faced a defense that is having to protect all levels the way teams have to with Allen and Mahomes.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Rochesterfan said:

 

I am going to try and watch more later, but I am 2 plays in on Knox’s catch and Warner misdiagnosed the defense.  He called it a single high safety and diagnosed what to do, but if you watch at the snap they switch it up to a 2 high defense with the outside CB dropping into a deep half look.

 

I then saw the Cover 1 Knox video and they confirmed this.

 

I am not sure that Kurt is actually doing the work on these - I think someone else is putting it together and Kurt is doing the minimum.

 

Even the 1st play where Josh overthrew the target - Kurt is like take the easy throw, but you can see Miami dropping off and baiting that throw - I don’t think Kurt is anywhere near as caught up on defenses as he tries to sound and I think he is talking as if it was still the early 2000’s when he played.

 

So far I am not impressed with his understanding of the Bills offense and his lack of seeing the Defense.  

If he was the QB - both throws would have gone short to the underneath routes for small gains, but he would not have faced a defense that is having to protect all levels the way teams have to with Allen and Mahomes.

The shot to McKenzie was the correct throw and it had to be high

 

McKenzie doesn't even try to go up for it for some reason or it could have been a completion

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

The shot to McKenzie was the correct throw and it had to be high

 

McKenzie doesn't even try to go up for it for some reason or it could have been a completion

 

 

 

I agree - you see that as Josh sets to throw - the CB and LBs both break to Diggs - that was the throw they were baiting.

 

It opens up McKenzie for the throw Josh made.  It was a bit high, but that was the read.

 

The Dolphins set the defense up to converge on a throw to Diggs and even though I think he might have completed it for 10 yards - they were looking to get a big shot on him.

 

Kurt never even mentions the fact that as Josh sets to throw - the deep CB that Kurt says is preventing the McKenzie throw is already breaking down at Diggs leaving a huge window.

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I agree - you see that as Josh sets to throw - the CB and LBs both break to Diggs - that was the throw they were baiting.

 

It opens up McKenzie for the throw Josh made.  It was a bit high, but that was the read.

 

The Dolphins set the defense up to converge on a throw to Diggs and even though I think he might have completed it for 10 yards - they were looking to get a big shot on him.

 

Kurt never even mentions the fact that as Josh sets to throw - the deep CB that Kurt says is preventing the McKenzie throw is already breaking down at Diggs leaving a huge window.

 

 

I'm also not really sold on his critique of the Morris TD tbh

 

I don't think Allen is watching the spy, I think he's watching Jaelan Phillips go inside on Brown leaving a bunch of 1v1's to the right so he immediately has broken contain

 

It was 100% the right play and likely something they key on in zero man

[Rochesterfan]

10 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

I was going to post this as a separate post but decided not to but my question is.

 

Is it time for the Bills to get a big body receiver who can make contested catches?

 

I know that one key to Josh Allen development was getting away from big bodied receivers to receivers that can run precise routes. This was probably the right approach because of Josh Allen accuracy issues in his 1st couple of seasons in the league.

 

Now that Allen ball placement and accuracy is better now I think we can revisit the need of a WR that can make contested catches

 

Here is an example of what Im talking about from the 1st Dolphins game in the second clip for the pass into the endzone. Now imagine a receiver like Mike Williams or out of last draft class George Pickens that plays for the Steelers. Gabe would be a excellent player but for his size he drops too many contested catches. If he could fix that issue along with his weak ankles that would be ideal but if not I think we should invest either through the draft or free agency for a Mike Williams/ Mike Evans type of receiver.

 

One last case to support my case is the fact that we play are most important games in Dec/Jan/Feb:) I think it helps to have size at the receiver stop to help in the redzone/run game WR blocking and for footing purposes. I might do some research on this certain aspect to see if it really does help in that regard.

 

 

 

For me the answer to this is a resounding NO!!!!!!

 

The Bills looked at a big body/big catch radius guy because they were concerned about accuracy.

 

Now that he has accuracy- give me route runners all day long.  Guys that can get separation and guys that can follow Josh when he scrambles and get open.

 

Josh is good enough at hitting windows everywhere that I do not want a slow guy posting up for catches unless he can also get open in the middle of the field also.

[Comebackkid]

5 hours ago, clayboy54 said:

My take away is that Gabe and Isaiah have to work on their route timing. That is a valid point. Several of the good route concepts were broken because one or both of them were too fast in their timing. The route was done before the progression developed.

 

This absolutely explains why we see far less success in the downfield passing this second-half of the season. They need to slow down and relax in their route running. It may be Dorsey not giving them routes they are already accomplished at as well. But, they need to grow their game to get better for Josh.

So this is what make me go hmm..    I want to step back and put this more on the wr coaches and maybe Dorsey as how the play is being drawn up.   As far as Dorsey goes, when it comes to nuances, timing, the critical thought process of designing these rountes, does he have the knowledge to teach it?   Josh as Warner said is still growing and developing, but who there is at that level to take Josh to the next level.   I think thats where Dorsey becomes a handicap. 

6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

For me the answer to this is a resounding NO!!!!!!

 

The Bills looked at a big body/big catch radius guy because they were concerned about accuracy.

 

Now that he has accuracy- give me route runners all day long.  Guys that can get separation and guys that can follow Josh when he scrambles and get open.

 

Josh is good enough at hitting windows everywhere that I do not want a slow guy posting up for catches unless he can also get open in the middle of the field also.

get a big body reciever that has some speed..   doesnt have to be exclusive of each other.  

[Coldfronts]

Josh does make things harder than they need to be at times

[finn]

Warner keeps saying "You can't get away with that" before admitting that Allen did in fact get away with it. It's like Warner wants Allen to be ordinary so he can show why what he does is bad football. But if what Allen is doing "wrong" ends up working repeatedly, it's not wrong, by definition. 

[Rochesterfan]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

If you're talking about the first play Warner diagrams, which was the Bills 2nd drive, it's 1st and 10 to McKenzie and that's Diggs at the sticks.

Warner's point is that by the time Allen manipulates the CB with his eyes to come up on Diggs and open McKenzie, the safety has closed.

 

You're also I think missing Warner's point about Allen moving right.  His point is that because there's a guy spying Allen, when Allen rolls right unnecessarily (protection is good), he takes the spy right into Singletary's path and cancels what would otherwise be an easy throw over the middle of the field with lots of space for Singletary to get the touch.  Count noses: Warner is correct, there is absolutely NOBODY HOME who could prevent it, IF Allen stays in the pocket and maybe even looks left a little to freeze the spy.

 

It's great Allen completes the "dime" to Morris, and it's 1st and 10 so as long as Allen doesn't throw a pick we have 2 more shots if he doesn't.  But it's no way poor analysis by Warner.  We complain all the time about our drives in the red zone stalling out and having to settle for FG.

 

Warner is correctly pointing out the easy shot the play is designed to scheme open against that defense, and how Allen is taking that very easy shot away from himself by rolling to the R when he doesn't have to.

 

You don't have to agree with Warner all the time (I don't), but I'm surprised you can't even be open minded enough to give him a full listen.  He 100% Knows His Ball.  He watches Josh Allen a lot - I would say at this point he's even somewhat fascinated with Allen because of Josh's abilities to do things he knows he couldn't have done.  But that doesn't mean he doesn't see different choices Allen could make that would be easier and sometimes higher % thus better.

 

 

 

 

I disagree slightly here on a couple of points - first - on the first play he diagrams I think the Dolphins are trying to bait the throw to Diggs.  The CB and the LBs begin breaking on Diggs as Josh begins to set-up.  I think from experience Josh know exactly what was going to happen.  He sets up and chooses the throw to McK in the deep window because he knew the CB was going to drop down and open the window.

 

Yes he might have had a completion to Diggs, but I think Josh saw the coverage and recognized where the window was.  He could easily take a few shorter throws, but I actually think Josh recognizes things better in real time based on tendencies that Kurt did reviewing tape others cut up for him.

 

The second play Warner is not incorrect, but I am not sure I agree with him either.  If Josh stays in the pocket - the spying LB stays back and if Josh hits the RB - he is running right into the LB and the safety with coverage - he gains 3 to 5 yards.

 

Josh on the play knew from the snap that with the routes Morris was 1:1 with space to the outside - Josh rolled out to give himself a better angle on the throw he knew he was going to attempt.  He trusts his guys in 1:1 situations to win and he wanted a better angle.

 

I believe Warner might have hit the RB on the route and taken a short gain because when he played the LB would not have been spying him and therefore would have most likely dropped back leaving a bigger space.

 

Yes Josh ran the Spy into the RB window, but that was never the throw he was making - he read the 1:1 and at that point the spy became irrelevant to the play.  Kurt wants him to stay and read, but Josh had already diagnosed the weak spot in the D and the coverage they wanted to attack.  
 

Warner is fine looking at plays, but I think he grossly underestimates Josh’s ability to diagnose and decide where to go and to recognize what the defenders are going to do.  He does not read things the same as Kurt because they have different experiences, but in several of these plays Josh is finding the 1:1 and open windows to allow his guys to make plays.

 

 

 

 

[Comebackkid]

1 hour ago, finn said:

Warner keeps saying "You can't get away with that" before admitting that Allen did in fact get away with it. It's like Warner wants Allen to be ordinary so he can show why what he does is bad football. But if what Allen is doing "wrong" ends up working repeatedly, it's not wrong, by definition. 

Usually he followed that up by saying, again..most qbs dont have the talent to get away with this.  

i think for the most part Warner is saying...dont unnecessarily create a problem or a risk that you have to overcome.   We know that Josh

is great at overcoming a lot of problems, issues.   some of them though are created by the bills themselves.   

[CoudyBills]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Did you watch the video? Can you explain how Allen is supposed to 'hold a spy with his eyes'?

That's your 1 criticism of a 1 hour video?  That's an overly homer take.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Nice to get a 1-Hour video breaking this down.

 

WGR 550 - Nate Geary and Joe DiBiase, have said this line over and over and it’s starting to get parroted a lot by callers and other hosts - there aren’t enough “layups” engineered by Dorsey into this offense.

 

But you can see here that there are layups.

 

Josh is just not that Quarterback to constantly check down. Instead he holds and looks for deeper throws, and usually there isn’t a ton of separation.

 

The other thing that becomes apparent is, even in the Red Zone, when the Bills are at the 15 yard line, these routes end up taking 25 yard ropes to complete.

 

Josh is in shotgun, the WRs run into the end zone, so these aren’t 12-yard throws.

 

Gabe’s comeback route to the sideline, that takes a 20-25 yard rope to complete consistently. The Bills understand the arm strength of their QB and play to it with a lot of routes that take time to develop and run across the field, they’re just not shallow. 
 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Rochesterfan]

13 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

This, 100%.  Some of the responses here are so homerish it makes me wonder if they think Josh is their boyfriend.  The x's and o's are the x's and o's no matter who is playing.  

 

That is not really true.  The X’s and O’s are not exactly the same depending upon the QB and design.  The idea on zone coverage schemes is to find 1 or 2 guys and pressure them with multiple guys in that zone and then to hit one of them as they become free, but the QB and OC watch tape and mark tendencies to decide which windows they think provide an opening they want to attack.

 

The 1st play is a perfect example - the Bills run a 3 level concept at the top of the screen to pressure the zone.  The short throw for a short gain is open throughout for a quick lay-up throw and 4-5 yards and on to second down.

 

Diggs at 10 yards is who Kurt wants to hit and based on Defense and tendencies- he is open for a 10 yard gain, but if you watch - when Josh sets to throw that way - the deep CB and the 2 LBs break on Diggs.  That is the throw the defense expects and the throw they are working to get to as Josh throws.  
 

Josh seemed to anticipate this and that put McK in a 1:1 with a safety in trail technique.  That is the window they wanted to attack - especially early with good weather because that deep third then pressures that CB all night to be 1-2 steps deeper making the other windows open slightly more.

 

In Man to Man coverage - the Bills look for a lot of 1:1 routes where a guy gets caught in trail technique.  Again there was an easy set-up to the RB on the inside route, but from the snap and with the defensive set-up - Josh knew he had Morris 1:1 with a route  versus the RB that was going to end up with a LB inside and a DB outside based on the routes.  Josh recognized before the snap the defense and knew where he wanted to go and then moved to position himself for the throw.

 

Kurt is not incorrect in that if Josh stays in the pocket and reads the break - he holds the LB and leaves a nice window to Cook, but based upon the study and why the Bills called the play - Josh from the snap knew where the mismatch coverage was and what he wanted to get.

 

The X’s and O’s May dictate one way to read the play, but the QB and OC also make certain plays where they look for a specific expected coverage and run plays to exploit that coverage to give leverage to a specific player to make a play.  That play was not about Cook versus the inside route - Cook’s route was designed to ensure the LB and his coverage player stayed short and out of the passing lane to the TE in a 1:1 near the goal line.

 

I truly believe it is one of the things that many of these experts do not understand about Josh - he is super cerebral and recognizes many things based upon film study and tendencies and makes reads based upon that.  It can screw him up if a player on defense goes off script - for example rather than cover Cook - if his guy had drifted back to provide double coverage unexpectedly, but that is when Josh gets off script and then usually buys time to look for a second or third guy to win his coverage.  In this case - the Defense did exactly what the Bills expected and Josh rolled to his right to give himself a better angle with no chance to get the pass tipped.