Kurt Warner Breakdown of Josh Allen in the Miami Game

[SoCal Deek]

Not sure what the problem is here. I guarantee you that Josh would appreciate and respect the commentary and critique from someone of Warner’s resume. But no…not here…critique is not allowed. Geeez people. 

[ehfeuh57]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Thanks for posting but I only got through 9 minutes before giving up. Kurt Warner clearly doesn't like Allen's style and it colors his evaluation. So on the 1st drive he talks about the miss to McKenzie on 3rd down. He says a throw to Davis at the sticks is the easier throw. But the read to McKenzie is fine, he's open Allen just sails the pass. The play was bad but not for the reason Kurt Warner says. Then on the TD to Morris he criticizes Allen for immediately running out of the pocket. I guess Kurt Warner hasn't watched a lot of Allen film, because Allen runs to the right all the time to set up an easier throw. He isn't bailing the pocket, he immediately sees that Morris is in single man coverage with the safety in trail so he runs to the right to set up a good angle and then throws a dime. That is the kind of throwing platform Allen prefers. This play in particular was unbelievably poor analysis so that was the end of the video for me.

 

No reason to get mad.

 

He's a HOF QB and that's the way he would play it.  Its like a poker player evaluating another, we all do things differently and you can still critique and it doesn't even make the original guy wrong. I'm continuing on in the video.

[T master]

I made it in about 1;52 but from the little i heard i feel Josh could do better if he would att times take what is right in front of him rather than look for the BIG throw as he does at times but maybe that will come he did it in the beginning of this season more so but as long as he keeps winning that's all that matters .

[clayboy54]

My take away is that Gabe and Isaiah have to work on their route timing. That is a valid point. Several of the good route concepts were broken because one or both of them were too fast in their timing. The route was done before the progression developed.

 

This absolutely explains why we see far less success in the downfield passing this second-half of the season. They need to slow down and relax in their route running. It may be Dorsey not giving them routes they are already accomplished at as well. But, they need to grow their game to get better for Josh.

[JohnRVA]

I think Kurt was mostly neutral in the analysis. I didn't agree with everything but it was interesting to hear his perspective on the route concepts. For example, I like how he explained the check down options to Cook and the types of routes he could run and how Cook ran it kind of in between which meant Josh couldn't throw it to him. Obviously the Cover 1 guys know our offense and players better but I still learned some things,

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, JohnRVA said:

I didn't see this anywhere else in the forums. This is a breakdown by Kurt Warner of the Miami game. It's pretty in depth on what Josh should be looking at first, second, third. Pretty good breakdown IMHO for those of us who are not film experts.

 

Thanks!  Warner has improved these a lot and they're now much easier to follow.  Great breakdown.

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Thanks for posting but I only got through 9 minutes before giving up. Kurt Warner clearly doesn't like Allen's style and it colors his evaluation. So on the 1st drive he talks about the miss to McKenzie on 3rd down. He says a throw to Davis at the sticks is the easier throw. But the read to McKenzie is fine, he's open Allen just sails the pass. The play was bad but not for the reason Kurt Warner says. Then on the TD to Morris he criticizes Allen for immediately running out of the pocket. I guess Kurt Warner hasn't watched a lot of Allen film, because Allen runs to the right all the time to set up an easier throw. He isn't bailing the pocket, he immediately sees that Morris is in single man coverage with the safety in trail so he runs to the right to set up a good angle and then throws a dime. That is the kind of throwing platform Allen prefers. This play in particular was unbelievably poor analysis so that was the end of the video for me.

 

So, I've been watching Warner's breakdowns of Allen since he came into the league (Allen that is) and I think you're missing his points here.

 

He says right up front, he calls Allen the human "GCP" (Game Changing Play) because he can do just that at any time.  He acknowledges that as a player, he did not have the ability to do that, so he had to win the game mentally by reading the defense and taking the easy throws.  (He also didn't have Allen's ability to evade defenders).  He states that what he's doing, is breaking down the film from that POV, what easy options are the offensive plays designed to open up?  The easy option is always to stay in the pocket and take the throw if there is a pocket, and a QB who is running is open to that defender he's not aware of plastering him for a strip sack, not that that ever happens to Allen - Oh, Wait.

 

So basically, you're objecting to Warner doing exactly what he says he's going to do, up front at the beginning.

 

You're incorrect that Warner doesn't like Allen's style.  Over time, Warner's breakdowns of Allen have changed DRAMATICALLY as he recognizes that Allen has the physical abilities to do all sorts of things he couldn't do himself, and make them work.  He's actually kind of in awe of Allen, now, I think. 

 

But he also has a valid point that if Allen doesn't remain aware of his "Easy!" buttons and train himself mentally to take them at times, he can find himself struggling and throwing picks when the defensive coverage is better than usual, or the pass rush is fiercer than usual, or the weather sucks more than usual.  We have seen this when the offense has struggled as Allen has been working his way back from his elbow injury and trying to tone down his picks.

9 hours ago, WideNine said:

Warner did not spend a lot of time on those either, if folks had a bit more patience he was pretty balanced in his analysis. What I found enlightening were the many times he said he loved the designs of the plays, but often our receivers were just a little off running their routes, or off in their techniques or leverage getting off the press man coverage Miami prefers, and missing those small execution details limited the windows of opportunity the plays were designed to open for Allen.

 

That made me feel better about some of Dorsey's play design, but also shows that there needs to be more focus on execution detail and ensuring players are running the right routes, with the right timing, to the right depths... success is in the details.

 

Yes, I've appreciated that in Warner's analysis of what's gone wrong with Denver's offense - he critiques the WR route running as well.

 

I can see that in some of the routes Gabe Davis and McKenzie are running, they are NOT supposed to be where they end up, but I haven't been able to sort out what's going wrong.

 

Anyway, I think there's a lot of value here especially for people who are worried about Dorsey's play design and play calling.  The point is that the play design is opening options.  Sometimes the options are there and Allen isn't taking them; sometimes the play design is sound but the execution is flawed.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Beck Water

[Solomon Grundy]

6 hours ago, DrPJax said:

Warner was a prototypical pocket passer who was immobile. Qb play has changed. Kurt is consistent in his pointing out flaws he always sees with Josh’s style of play. Even Rex Ryan said do not coach Josh “ down” !   Warner does not want to acknowledge his time has passed and I think he only believes his way is the correct way to play qb.  I like Kurt , but his analysis of Josh is always the same , critical analysis and it’s tiresome.   When did Kurt leap for a drive sustaining first down or run 50:yards?  He also had three other hof guys playing with him, including Faulk. 
He is always critical of the Bills ; one must have critiqued his wife’s “ unique” hair styles at some point, as most women from the mafia at least look very feminine while having good football knowledge!  Lol!  Kurt needs to get rid of that dam Michelin coat he wears and accept Josh is the type of qb / athlete who will surpass Warner’s passing stats while also being a complete “ football “ player , not just a pocket passer.
Some guys can’t accept someone being a superior athlete at their  position, Kurt strikes me as that guy. It’s time for guys like him and Bradshaw to move on. The game has given them life changing wealth so like all careers , it’s time for new generational talent. Let’s see them succeed in other fields or just go enjoy your families.  These networks hold on to stale talent and wonder why these pregame shows are criticized.   There should be term limits for these old athletes who played in a different era , just like term limits are needed for politicians like the senate and congress as it has lead to the same ineffective bottom line. 😊🎄

I wonder if he critiques Mahomes the same way? 

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, DrPJax said:

Warner was a prototypical pocket passer who was immobile. Qb play has changed. Kurt is consistent in his pointing out flaws he always sees with Josh’s style of play. Even Rex Ryan said do not coach Josh “ down” !   Warner does not want to acknowledge his time has passed and I think he only believes his way is the correct way to play qb.  I like Kurt , but his analysis of Josh is always the same , critical analysis and it’s tiresome.   When did Kurt leap for a drive sustaining first down or run 50:yards?  He also had three other hof guys playing with him, including Faulk. 

 

This is not doing Warner credit as a QB.  No, he was not a running QB, and yes, he was coached to stay in the pocket, but he was one of those "teflon" guys we saw like a younger Tom Brady or Drew Brees - he had that uncanny body sense of where defenders were and could just take a step and make the defender miss or duck and let the defender sail over him then make the throw. 

 

In addition, how to read defensive coverages post-snap and identify the best option has not changed.  It's not a "style of play" thing, it's seeing the leverage, understanding what the defense is giving you, and taking it.

 

Look.  Here's the series from the very first play Warner breaks down (click to enlarge).  We converted 2 1st Downs, then Punted.  Miami then proceeded to go on a 14 play drive, including a 4th down conversion, ending in a FG.

The play Warner breaks down is 1st and 10 incomplete to McKenzie.

 

Allen is going for the "kill shot" to the WR running the deep over route, who happens to be McKenzie on this play.  But the CB is initially dropping to cover the over route McKenzie is running, and there's a safety back there as well who closes by the time Allen pulls the trigger.  (Eventually, Allen gets the CB to bite and move forward to cover Diggs and open up the deep route to McK, but by then the safety has closed)

 

Allen he has three, count them, THREE, receivers who are wide open early in the play, including 2 underneath guys who could gain some yards, and Diggs, who is our BEST receiver no question, open as *****  and past the 1st down marker.  McKenzie is the "kill shot" if Allen completes the throw, but he's actually the best covered of the WR.  Allen throws to him, the pass is broken up by the corner we see dropping back to take it away.

 

Allen hits Diggs on time instead, we get a first down and maybe some more, we keep moving the ball down the field and at least wind up with points.  

 

 

 

He isn't "coaching Josh down", he is pointing out that Josh has options to sustain drives that he's not taking.  It's the difference between NEEDING that drive at the end of the game (and the DPI that might not be called) to win, vs. going into the 4th with a comfortable lead.  

 

People complain that Dorsey isn't "scheming guys open" or they "see no evidence" that there are open guys underneath that Allen isn't hitting.  Here are 3 WR schemed open including Diggs, and Allen is choosing the least open guy.  People complain that the OL isn't giving Allen enough pass protection.  Well, Allen has more than enough pocket time to throw to Diggs, he's asking more of his OL so that he can wait for a deeper option.  The OL would look a lot better in pass pro, too, if Allen would take some of these easier shots.

 

Moreover, the tape is out - it doesn't matter that's McKenzie back there.  It could be Davis, it could be Diggs.  Allen will almost always choose his deepest option if he thinks there's a chance, and teams know it and cheat their coverage that way which is why the deep options aren't working as well as they did earlier in the season (and why we keep stalling out and punting early in games).  It's why you see Singletary and Knox  with enough green around them to plant a ***** Christmas Tree farm, and why you see Diggs, one of the best and most scary receivers in the league, with so much space around him.

 

This is really Football 101 and critiquing Warner as an old fuddy-duddy whose football time has passed when he points this out misses the fair, IMHO. 

Last but not least, why on earth would you choose the judgement of that bloviating never-was Rex Ryan, over a 2x 1st team all-pro with 3 SB appearances and a SB ring? 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Thanks for posting but I only got through 9 minutes before giving up. Kurt Warner clearly doesn't like Allen's style and it colors his evaluation. So on the 1st drive he talks about the miss to McKenzie on 3rd down. He says a throw to Davis at the sticks is the easier throw. But the read to McKenzie is fine, he's open Allen just sails the pass. The play was bad but not for the reason Kurt Warner says. Then on the TD to Morris he criticizes Allen for immediately running out of the pocket. I guess Kurt Warner hasn't watched a lot of Allen film, because Allen runs to the right all the time to set up an easier throw. He isn't bailing the pocket, he immediately sees that Morris is in single man coverage with the safety in trail so he runs to the right to set up a good angle and then throws a dime. That is the kind of throwing platform Allen prefers. This play in particular was unbelievably poor analysis so that was the end of the video for me.

 

If you're talking about the first play Warner diagrams, which was the Bills 2nd drive, it's 1st and 10 to McKenzie and that's Diggs at the sticks.

Warner's point is that by the time Allen manipulates the CB with his eyes to come up on Diggs and open McKenzie, the safety has closed.

 

You're also I think missing Warner's point about Allen moving right.  His point is that because there's a guy spying Allen, when Allen rolls right unnecessarily (protection is good), he takes the spy right into Singletary's path and cancels what would otherwise be an easy throw over the middle of the field with lots of space for Singletary to get the touch.  Count noses: Warner is correct, there is absolutely NOBODY HOME who could prevent it, IF Allen stays in the pocket and maybe even looks left a little to freeze the spy.

 

It's great Allen completes the "dime" to Morris, and it's 1st and 10 so as long as Allen doesn't throw a pick we have 2 more shots if he doesn't.  But it's no way poor analysis by Warner.  We complain all the time about our drives in the red zone stalling out and having to settle for FG.

 

Warner is correctly pointing out the easy shot the play is designed to scheme open against that defense, and how Allen is taking that very easy shot away from himself by rolling to the R when he doesn't have to.

 

You don't have to agree with Warner all the time (I don't), but I'm surprised you can't even be open minded enough to give him a full listen.  He 100% Knows His Ball.  He watches Josh Allen a lot - I would say at this point he's even somewhat fascinated with Allen because of Josh's abilities to do things he knows he couldn't have done.  But that doesn't mean he doesn't see different choices Allen could make that would be easier and sometimes higher % thus better.

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Beck Water

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Warner is correctly pointing out the easy shot the play is designed to scheme open against that defense, and how Allen is taking that very easy shot away from himself by rolling to the R when he doesn't have to.

 

 

 

Warner is seemingly unaware of the simple fact that our oline can't block consistently and Allen knows it

 

This is man zero so everyone up front is blocking 1v1 which Allen rightly doesn't trust

 

rolling out and buying time is absolutely the right move

[YattaOkasan]

18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

If you're talking about the first play Warner diagrams, which was the Bills 2nd drive, it's 1st and 10 to McKenzie and that's Diggs at the sticks.

Warner's point is that by the time Allen manipulates the CB with his eyes to come up on Diggs and open McKenzie, the safety has closed.

 

You're also I think missing Warner's point about Allen moving right.  His point is that because there's a guy spying Allen, when Allen rolls right unnecessarily (protection is good), he takes the spy right into Singletary's path and cancels what would otherwise be an easy throw over the middle of the field with lots of space for Singletary to get the touch.  Count noses: Warner is correct, there is absolutely NOBODY HOME who could prevent it, IF Allen stays in the pocket and maybe even looks left a little to freeze the spy.

 

It's great Allen completes the "dime" to Morris, and it's 1st and 10 so as long as Allen doesn't throw a pick we have 2 more shots if he doesn't.  But it's no way poor analysis by Warner.  We complain all the time about our drives in the red zone stalling out and having to settle for FG.

 

Warner is correctly pointing out the easy shot the play is designed to scheme open against that defense, and how Allen is taking that very easy shot away from himself by rolling to the R when he doesn't have to.

 

You don't have to agree with Warner all the time (I don't), but I'm surprised you can't even be open minded enough to give him a full listen.  He 100% Knows His Ball.  He watches Josh Allen a lot - I would say at this point he's even somewhat fascinated with Allen because of Josh's abilities to do things he knows he couldn't have done.  But that doesn't mean he doesn't see different choices Allen could make that would be easier and sometimes higher % thus better.

 

 

 

I agree the easy shot is to Singeltary on this play.  I dont agree that Josh can make this play if he stays in the pocket as Warner says.  If he stays in the pocket why is the spy gonna move.  I think Josh opens Singeltary up by moving. 

 

Overall, agree with your other posts that he does a good job identifying missed opportunities like the McK above.  I also liked the end of half play (where he shows the high low that should be thrown) and the strip sack where Beasely is wide open. 

 

I wholly disagree with the TD to Knox.  That was exactly the right play.  The outside guys are playing 3 on 2.  He spent some time talking about throwing to those routes when Knox was the right read all day.  Additionally, I dont know that Warner is appreciating the disguised coverage that Josh sees (which is weird cause im sure Warner saw it too).  I dont think the 40 yarder to Knox was MOFC but rolled into MOFO after the snap.  This negates some of his analysis on that play.  

 

Overall though I think Warner does a good job finding some of the meat on the bone, but think some of the other posters arent off when they say Warner is overly critical of Josh. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

I agree the easy shot is to Singeltary on this play.  I dont agree that Josh can make this play if he stays in the pocket as Warner says.  If he stays in the pocket why is the spy gonna move.  I think Josh opens Singeltary up by moving. 

 

Overall, agree with your other posts that he does a good job identifying missed opportunities like the McK above.  I also liked the end of half play (where he shows the high low that should be thrown) and the strip sack where Beasely is wide open. 

 

I wholly disagree with the TD to Knox.  That was exactly the right play.  The outside guys are playing 3 on 2.  He spent some time talking about throwing to those routes when Knox was the right read all day.  Additionally, I dont know that Warner is appreciating the disguised coverage that Josh sees (which is weird cause im sure Warner saw it too).  I dont think the 40 yarder to Knox was MOFC but rolled into MOFO after the snap.  This negates some of his analysis on that play.  

 

Overall though I think Warner does a good job finding some of the meat on the bone, but think some of the other posters arent off when they say Warner is overly critical of Josh. 

Warner does not like Allen

[Utah John]

I think a lot of the posters here are missing the point.  The analysis is about the context of the play design, the defensive alignment, and what actions the QB needs to take and when to take them.  These are all valid topics not related to Josh.  A QB without Josh's talents has to make different choices, OK fine.  In Warner's eyes, those other choices are what he was trained to make.  OK fine, he has a yellow jacket and a Lombardi, so he's worth listening to.

 

But there are two points to make.  First, those other QBs without the special talent will have defenses sitting on their routes because they can't make the special throws.  Josh's ability to make the special throws limits what the other team's D will try to do, and it makes them just a little less free to play an attacking style.  Second, the game has changed since Warner was playing.  Defenses are always adapting and improving.  Josh is playing against today's D.  Josh (and even Peterman for that matter) would destroy the Warner-era Ds.  

 

If I was watching this as an average-talent QB at the HS or college level, or even in the pros, the lessons I would take away are how I would be trying to beat defenses by excellent play design, route running, timing, and decision making.  The Bills don't always have the best of any of those characteristics and yet they still are winning.  But they could be more effective.  One more TD drive per game and the Bills become much more dangerous, and that added drive could come about because Josh takes a layup now and then to move the chains.  

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Warner is seemingly unaware of the simple fact that our oline can't block consistently and Allen knows it

 

This is man zero so everyone up front is blocking 1v1 which Allen rightly doesn't trust

 

rolling out and buying time is absolutely the right move

 

 

Dude!  Warner understands man zero.  Do you seriously think you see things on film that a HOF QB is missing?  Really?

 

His point is - there isn't a free blitzer, there's a spy.  You have a point that our blocking is not bulletproof, but they were good enough to give Allen time for a quick shot all game.  "Manipulate the spy and take the quick shot to the RB" is a realistic option with the blocking time our guys are able to give. 

 

Rolling right out of the pocket to give the spy a clear path at the QB has its own risks.

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

Dude!  Warner understands man zero.  Do you seriously think you see things on film that a HOF QB is missing?  Really?

 

His point is - there isn't a free blitzer, there's a spy.  You have a point that our blocking is not bulletproof, but they were good enough to give Allen time for a quick shot all game.  "Manipulate the spy and take the quick shot to the RB" is a realistic option with the blocking time our guys are able to give. 

 

Rolling right out of the pocket to give the spy a clear path at the QB has its own risks.

 

 

How do you 'manipulate the spy' without moving as a QB?

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Utah John said:

I think a lot of the posters here are missing the point.  The analysis is about the context of the play design, the defensive alignment, and what actions the QB needs to take and when to take them.  These are all valid topics not related to Josh.  A QB without Josh's talents has to make different choices, OK fine.  In Warner's eyes, those other choices are what he was trained to make.  OK fine, he has a yellow jacket and a Lombardi, so he's worth listening to.

 

Agree completely

 

9 minutes ago, Utah John said:

If I was watching this as an average-talent QB at the HS or college level, or even in the pros, the lessons I would take away are how I would be trying to beat defenses by excellent play design, route running, timing, and decision making.  The Bills don't always have the best of any of those characteristics and yet they still are winning.  But they could be more effective.  One more TD drive per game and the Bills become much more dangerous, and that added drive could come about because Josh takes a layup now and then to move the chains.  

 

Exactly.  The Bills punted 5 times and had a strip-sack fumble where Josh was trying to extend the play.  We ended the game with an absolutely BRILLIANT ~6 minute, 15 play drive.  But get points on even 1 or 2 of those drives that ended in punts, and we're just eating clock on that last drive, not depending upon it to win.

 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

How do you 'manipulate the spy' without moving as a QB?

 

No one said anything about "without moving".

Edited December 20, 2022 by Beck Water

[ProcessTruster]

7 hours ago, DrPJax said:

Warner was a prototypical pocket passer who was immobile. Qb play has changed. Kurt is consistent in his pointing out flaws he always sees with Josh’s style of play. Even Rex Ryan said do not coach Josh “ down” !   Warner does not want to acknowledge his time has passed and I think he only believes his way is the correct way to play qb.  I like Kurt , but his analysis of Josh is always the same , critical analysis and it’s tiresome.   When did Kurt leap for a drive sustaining first down or run 50:yards?  He also had three other hof guys playing with him, including Faulk. 
He is always critical of the Bills ; one must have critiqued his wife’s “ unique” hair styles at some point, as most women from the mafia at least look very feminine while having good football knowledge!  Lol!  Kurt needs to get rid of that dam Michelin coat he wears and accept Josh is the type of qb / athlete who will surpass Warner’s passing stats while also being a complete “ football “ player , not just a pocket passer.
Some guys can’t accept someone being a superior athlete at their  position, Kurt strikes me as that guy. It’s time for guys like him and Bradshaw to move on. The game has given them life changing wealth so like all careers , it’s time for new generational talent. Let’s see them succeed in other fields or just go enjoy your families.  These networks hold on to stale talent and wonder why these pregame shows are criticized.   There should be term limits for these old athletes who played in a different era , just like term limits are needed for politicians like the senate and congress as it has lead to the same ineffective bottom line. 😊🎄

I will never forget Bradshaw saying Josh was not accurate enough and "never would be".  F him.  You don't see him say a word about Allen now, bc he eats crow every time it somes up

[HappyDays]

42 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

It's great Allen completes the "dime" to Morris, and it's 1st and 10 so as long as Allen doesn't throw a pick we have 2 more shots if he doesn't.  But it's no way poor analysis by Warner.  We complain all the time about our drives in the red zone stalling out and having to settle for FG.

 

Warner is correctly pointing out the easy shot the play is designed to scheme open against that defense, and how Allen is taking that very easy shot away from himself by rolling to the R when he doesn't have to.

 

Allen decides at the snap that Morris with the safety in trail is the right read. He never considered Singletary on the play. Both options may have been acceptable, but Allen chooses the one running into the end zone with the coverage man's back to the QB. He immediately identifies that this leverage gives him a perfect window to hit the throw or at worst get DPI. He rolls to the right because that gives him the best angle to make the throw he's decided to make. I was genuinely shocked to hear Kurt Warner accuse him of bailing the pocket early. He's not bailing the pocket, he's setting up his throw.

 

I agree with others that Kurt Warner does a good job explaining route concepts and how a QB should read things. But there's a million people doing these types of videos right now. That single play was such a bad piece of analysis that I decided it's not worth my time.

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

I really truly don't think you folks realize how ridiculous some of these arguments are

 

"...but they could be more effective. One more TD drive per game and the Bills become much more dangerous..."  is outright laughable

 

The Bills are averaging 27.5 ppg right now. One more TD drive per game would put them at 34.5ppg which would be 10th highest scoring offense in NFL history