#1 Seed Will Be HUGE This Year

[mjt328]

One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios.

With each passing week, it's becoming very clear.  Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else.  Even more than compared to previous seasons.

 

In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore.  We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out.  The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field.  The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again.  The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams.

 

Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round.  In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals.  The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars.

 

Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship.

 

[Kaenon]

I think a free pass to the second round of the playoffs is a big advantage too.

[SoCal Deek]

Not to be a total contrarian but It’s a huge assumption to say the Titans or Jaguars are going to win their first round game just because it’s at home. Both of those teams will finish barely over .500.

[US Egg]

Billy sends a huge!

[Donuts and Doritos]

If it stayed as is, we play the winner of Titans/Ravens to get to AFC Championship. While the other games to get there are KC/Phins & Bengals/Chargers. (Setting KC up to potentially have to get through Phins & Bengals before getting to us)

 

That's tough sledding. The difference between 1 & 2 scheduling wise is HUGE this year.

 

https://images.app.goo.gl/dHuLcE5U2GuRPxgAA

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Donuts and Doritos

[TH3]

This is Big News!!

[Greg S]

In the AFC it will be but, in the NFC, I don't think it's that important. Defense travels and SF could beat any team in any stadium with that defense. 

[H2o]

I've seen some people on here saying the seeding isn't that big of a deal, nor the extra week off. For us, it ABSOLUTELY would be a big deal. Home field as long as we are in it, an extra week of rest for our banged up players, and watching other teams knock the snot out of each other just to get to the 2nd round? Trying to downplay this scenario is uneducated. 

[Captain_Quint]

The season is definitely ending up more like how it was projected in the offseason. 

 

 

 

Bills - Chiefs - Bengals - Chargers are all hot right now and honestly, any of these 4 teams could represent the AFC and win the whole thing. 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Captain_Quint

[MrEpsYtown]

Honestly, the 2 seed winds up maybe playing the Dolphins and or the Chargers. Honestly i would prefer not to play the Dolphins a third time. Additionally, Herbert can be dominant, and their defense can be as well. If you can avoid that first round, that would be ideal. Obviously, home field is huge as well. 

[Greg S]

Just now, H2o said:

I've seen some people on here saying the seeding isn't that big of a deal, nor the extra week off. For us, it ABSOLUTELY would be a big deal. Home field as long as we are in it, an extra week of rest for our banged up players, and watching other teams knock the snot out of each other just to get to the 2nd round? Trying to downplay this scenario is uneducated. 

 

I don't want the Bills to play at KC for what seems like the 100th straight time. Also, if they have to face Burrow, I would prefer that one to be in OP as well.

[LabattBlue]

The #1 seed is a big deal to every playoff team every year…not just this year, and not just the Bills. 

[SCBills]

Agreed.  There are no cupcakes likely in this years AFC Playoffs.  

 

If a non-1 seed makes it to the Super Bowl, they will have gone through a gauntlet. 

 

Titans, Jets and Pats are likely the 3 "easy" games, IF any of them make it... not looking likely at this point.  Even Tennessee looks like they may get overtaken by the Jags.. because this is what the AFC needs.. another potentially elite QB.   

[HOUSE]

I just want to beat the Bears in Chicago 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

5 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

If it stayed as is, we play the winner of Titans/Ravens to get to AFC Championship. While the other games to get there are KC/Phins & Bengals/Chargers. (Setting KC up to potentially have to get through Phins & Bengals before getting to us)

 

That's tough sledding. The difference between 1 & 2 scheduling wise is HUGE this year.

 

https://images.app.goo.gl/dHuLcE5U2GuRPxgAA

 

You’re assuming the Phins or Chargers don’t upset the Chiefs or Bengals.  If we’re the 1 seed, we will play the lowest seed left after the 1st round.  Lots of different scenarios, but there’s no debating that it would be clutch to get that first round bye.

[Buffalo03]

13 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios.

With each passing week, it's becoming very clear.  Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else.  Even more than compared to previous seasons.

 

In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore.  We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out.  The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field.  The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again.  The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams.

 

Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round.  In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals.  The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars.

 

Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship.

 

This is how the Patriots went to a lot of their Super Bowls. They always had first round byes. They have never made a Super Bowl under Belichick any time they played wild card weekend. But they would seem to luck out quite frequently on their first opponent out of a bye. In 2011, they got Tim Tebow and the 8-8 Broncos after they upset the Steelers in the wild card. There was no chance in hell the Broncos were winning that game

[HopelessNJBuffaloFan]

Buffalo needs to beat the Bears. Do NOT get anymore injuries. Get the walking or crawling wounded healthy before we play Cincy!!!! If we go into Cincy playing like we did against the Fins, it is going to be a serious fight to win that game. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Having the one seed is a great advantage because you get a free wildcard win, get to play the lowest remaining seed to get to the championship game and your playoff games are at home.   However, you will likely have to beat KC in the playoffs.  Home or away that will be a challenge. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Top 2 teams should get a bye. Add another team to the playoffs. 

[Gugny]

43 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:

The season is definitely ending up more like how it was projected in the offseason. 

 

 

 

Bills - Chiefs - Bengals - Chargers are all hot right now and honestly, any of these 4 teams could represent the AFC and win the whole thing. 

 

 

If SF makes it to the Super Bowl, I think only the Bills or Chiefs would be able to compete against that defense.