mjt328 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios. With each passing week, it's becoming very clear. Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else. Even more than compared to previous seasons. In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore. We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out. The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field. The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again. The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams. Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round. In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals. The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars. Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaenon Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I think a free pass to the second round of the playoffs is a big advantage too. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Not to be a total contrarian but It’s a huge assumption to say the Titans or Jaguars are going to win their first round game just because it’s at home. Both of those teams will finish barely over .500. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Egg Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Billy sends a huge! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donuts and Doritos Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) If it stayed as is, we play the winner of Titans/Ravens to get to AFC Championship. While the other games to get there are KC/Phins & Bengals/Chargers. (Setting KC up to potentially have to get through Phins & Bengals before getting to us) That's tough sledding. The difference between 1 & 2 scheduling wise is HUGE this year. https://images.app.goo.gl/dHuLcE5U2GuRPxgAA Edited December 19, 2022 by Donuts and Doritos 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 This is Big News!! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 In the AFC it will be but, in the NFC, I don't think it's that important. Defense travels and SF could beat any team in any stadium with that defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I've seen some people on here saying the seeding isn't that big of a deal, nor the extra week off. For us, it ABSOLUTELY would be a big deal. Home field as long as we are in it, an extra week of rest for our banged up players, and watching other teams knock the snot out of each other just to get to the 2nd round? Trying to downplay this scenario is uneducated. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Quint Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) The season is definitely ending up more like how it was projected in the offseason. Bills - Chiefs - Bengals - Chargers are all hot right now and honestly, any of these 4 teams could represent the AFC and win the whole thing. Edited December 19, 2022 by Captain_Quint 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrEpsYtown Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Honestly, the 2 seed winds up maybe playing the Dolphins and or the Chargers. Honestly i would prefer not to play the Dolphins a third time. Additionally, Herbert can be dominant, and their defense can be as well. If you can avoid that first round, that would be ideal. Obviously, home field is huge as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg S Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, H2o said: I've seen some people on here saying the seeding isn't that big of a deal, nor the extra week off. For us, it ABSOLUTELY would be a big deal. Home field as long as we are in it, an extra week of rest for our banged up players, and watching other teams knock the snot out of each other just to get to the 2nd round? Trying to downplay this scenario is uneducated. I don't want the Bills to play at KC for what seems like the 100th straight time. Also, if they have to face Burrow, I would prefer that one to be in OP as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The #1 seed is a big deal to every playoff team every year…not just this year, and not just the Bills. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Agreed. There are no cupcakes likely in this years AFC Playoffs. If a non-1 seed makes it to the Super Bowl, they will have gone through a gauntlet. Titans, Jets and Pats are likely the 3 "easy" games, IF any of them make it... not looking likely at this point. Even Tennessee looks like they may get overtaken by the Jags.. because this is what the AFC needs.. another potentially elite QB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I just want to beat the Bears in Chicago 4 3 1 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said: If it stayed as is, we play the winner of Titans/Ravens to get to AFC Championship. While the other games to get there are KC/Phins & Bengals/Chargers. (Setting KC up to potentially have to get through Phins & Bengals before getting to us) That's tough sledding. The difference between 1 & 2 scheduling wise is HUGE this year. https://images.app.goo.gl/dHuLcE5U2GuRPxgAA You’re assuming the Phins or Chargers don’t upset the Chiefs or Bengals. If we’re the 1 seed, we will play the lowest seed left after the 1st round. Lots of different scenarios, but there’s no debating that it would be clutch to get that first round bye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo03 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, mjt328 said: One of my favorite exercises this time of year is playing with the ESPN playoff simulator, and looking at various hypothetical seeding scenarios. With each passing week, it's becoming very clear. Whoever gets the #1 seed in the AFC is going to have a major advantage over everyone else. Even more than compared to previous seasons. In my opinion, the three most-likely Wild Card teams are going to be some ranked combination of Miami, Los Angeles and Baltimore. We already know after two games how difficult the Dolphins are going to be to knock-out. The Chargers can be a totally different team with Keenan Allen/Mike Williams both on the field. The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which makes them dangerous again. The #1 seed of course gets a bye during this round, while the other seeds get a very difficult matchup with one of these three teams. Now let's say the home teams each somehow escape with a victory in the first round. In my scenario, the #2 seed will then matchup against the Bengals. The #1 seed gets the winner of the AFC South, which looks like a toss-up between the Titans and Jaguars. Of course, the #1 seed would then play at home in the AFC Championship. This is how the Patriots went to a lot of their Super Bowls. They always had first round byes. They have never made a Super Bowl under Belichick any time they played wild card weekend. But they would seem to luck out quite frequently on their first opponent out of a bye. In 2011, they got Tim Tebow and the 8-8 Broncos after they upset the Steelers in the wild card. There was no chance in hell the Broncos were winning that game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopelessNJBuffaloFan Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Buffalo needs to beat the Bears. Do NOT get anymore injuries. Get the walking or crawling wounded healthy before we play Cincy!!!! If we go into Cincy playing like we did against the Fins, it is going to be a serious fight to win that game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Having the one seed is a great advantage because you get a free wildcard win, get to play the lowest remaining seed to get to the championship game and your playoff games are at home. However, you will likely have to beat KC in the playoffs. Home or away that will be a challenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Top 2 teams should get a bye. Add another team to the playoffs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 43 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said: The season is definitely ending up more like how it was projected in the offseason. Bills - Chiefs - Bengals - Chargers are all hot right now and honestly, any of these 4 teams could represent the AFC and win the whole thing. If SF makes it to the Super Bowl, I think only the Bills or Chiefs would be able to compete against that defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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