Week 16: Bills at Bears on Christmas Eve

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I thought Brady might still have some big game magic in him, but yesterday is the first time that I've ever thought he's finally washed.  People have written him off over and over, and it's always been premature, but that second half Bucs performance against the Bengals was the most pathetic display of football that I've ever witnessed.  They literally just kept giving the Bengals the ball deep in their own territory... I've never seen anything like it.  

 

I also think he is done. Brady is probably the greatest athlete in all of sports to hold off Father Time. But at 45 he is finally losing that battle. 

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

 

Just rush 4 and spy him with 1. Fields has taken 46 sacks this season. No reason the Bills shouldn't be able to get to him 5 times on Saturday. 

 

With our penchant for having the most "almost sacks" turned into big plays by the other team, this would be what is likely to happen more than them getting sacks.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/justin-fields-turns-second-and-27-near-sack-into-unreal-run-reaches-1000-rushing-yards-for-the-season-193133984.html

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

With our penchant for having the most "almost sacks" turned into big plays by the other team, this would be what is likely to happen more than them getting sacks.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/justin-fields-turns-second-and-27-near-sack-into-unreal-run-reaches-1000-rushing-yards-for-the-season-193133984.html

 

If Frazier can coach our guys to just play disciplined, this should look a lot like how they defend Lamar Jackson.  Rousseau and Shaq are great edge setters and perfectly suited to contain rush if they stay disciplined. 

[newcam2012]

9 hours ago, Chicagobills said:

Bills are favored by 10 for a reason. If we play our best ball this should be an easy win. Fields is tough to stop no doubt but they are very one dimensional. They are playing with a bunch or practice squad wr’s 

 Yesterday's results.

 

Eagles 25 Bears 20. Eagles favored by 9. Eagles probably the best team in the league. 

 

Also, Bills favored by 7 over Dolphins, Bills by 10 over Jets, etc...Bills were big favorites over Clev, Det, and Minn too. Every one of those games were close. Only game Bills covered that was a bigger spread was the NE game. 

 

In short, the rational of the Bills being 10 point favorites doesn't indicate a blowout is coming. No one is doubting the Bills are the better team. However, thinking this game is a blowout is not how I see it. The last blowout game was week 5 vs Pitt. 

[Motor26]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

If Frazier can coach our guys to just play disciplined, this should look a lot like how they defend Lamar Jackson.  Rousseau and Shaq are great edge setters and perfectly suited to contain rush if they stay disciplined. 

 

Yeah, the Bills D has done well against mobile QB's. But damn is Fields fast.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Motor26 said:

 

Yeah, the Bills D has done well against mobile QB's. But damn is Fields fast.

 

To me, he looks on-field faster than Lamar...I know 40 time doesn't say that, but his play speed seems faster.

[boco357]

6 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I also think he is done. Brady is probably the greatest athlete in all of sports to hold off Father Time. But at 45 he is finally losing that battle. 

Mother Nature and Father Time are undefeated.

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Agreed. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the Bears lead the league in rushing. 

 

They do, by every category: Attempts, Yards, and Y/A

They drop to 8th in the NFL if the QB is subtracted from YPG

I wouldn't take comfort in that since the Bills drop in YPG without QB is more precipitous (biggest drop in the league actually

 

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

To me, he looks on-field faster than Lamar...I know 40 time doesn't say that, but his play speed seems faster.

 

I think Lamar has lost a little step this season - mental, perhaps, since he may be taking that extra fraction of a second to look for a pass

 

EDIT: if anyone is interested, I couldn't find data so I calculated team run game w/out the QB contributions

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Beck Water

[Son of a K-Gun]

All this talk about Chicago having to move the game because of snow?  Why isn't Soldier Field a dome??  If they can't play December football in Chicago why does that joke of a city even have an NFL franchise???

 

/sarcasm

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

Is it Saturday yet?

 

 

[Simon]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

Trap games don't exist. They have done analysis on this and they are simply a figment of fan imagination.

 

Have you ever seen any analysis in regards to "letdown" games?

Like maybe something the week after an important primetime, playoff clinching win vs a bitter division rival?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

If Frazier can coach our guys to just play disciplined, this should look a lot like how they defend Lamar Jackson.  Rousseau and Shaq are great edge setters and perfectly suited to contain rush if they stay disciplined. 

Exactly. There is nothing that Fields is doing this year that Lamar couldn't do in 2020

 

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Have you ever seen any analysis in regards to "letdown" games?

Like maybe something the week after an important primetime, playoff clinching win vs a bitter division rival?

 

It's possible.  I think the Bills will be "up" for clinching the division though.

[Logic]

Justin Fields has come right out and said that achieving the single season QB rushing record is his big objective for the rest of the season.

Figure out a way to limit that dude's rushing output (I know, way easier said than done), and this should be a comfortable win. And by limit, I mean keep him to 70 yards instead of 170.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Early guidance shows the storm should be done by Friday night and Chicago is expecting around 10-15" of snow. Not sure how good their snow plowing is for a city that size and with the snow expected to be blowing around causing whiteout conditions.

 

Chicago airports and Chicago/environs have good snow removal capability.

 

That said, Chicago airspace and Chicago are both a MESS when it snows, way worse than you see in Buffalo.

 

Reasons are that Chicago airspace is among the most dense in the country.  Airport scheduling at O'Hare assumes good weather, but when weather is bad, the landing capacity of the airport is drastically reduced  (IIRC, O'Hare's two main runways are too close to allow both to be used under instrument conditions).

 

Similar with the streets - Chicago traffic is normally a snarl in good weather because just so many people on the roads. When roads need to be plowed and following distance really should increase to allow for poor braking, it's total gridlock.  Maybe it's improved post-Panini with more people WFH, I don't know.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Chicago airports and Chicago/environs have good snow removal capability.

 

That said, Chicago airspace and Chicago are both a MESS when it snows, way worse than you see in Buffalo.

 

Reasons are that Chicago airspace is among the most dense in the country.  Airport scheduling at O'Hare assumes good weather, but when weather is bad, the landing capacity of the airport is drastically reduced  (IIRC, O'Hare's two main runways are too close to allow both to be used under instrument conditions).

 

Similar with the streets - Chicago traffic is normally a snarl in good weather because just so many people on the roads. When roads need to be plowed and following distance really should increase to allow for poor braking, it's total gridlock.  Maybe it's improved post-Panini with more people WFH, I don't know.

 

I imagine all those parked cars likely make plowing a nightmare as well.

[plenzmd1]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Chicago airports and Chicago/environs have good snow removal capability.

 

That said, Chicago airspace and Chicago are both a MESS when it snows, way worse than you see in Buffalo.

 

Reasons are that Chicago airspace is among the most dense in the country.  Airport scheduling at O'Hare assumes good weather, but when weather is bad, the landing capacity of the airport is drastically reduced  (IIRC, O'Hare's two main runways are too close to allow both to be used under instrument conditions).

 

Similar with the streets - Chicago traffic is normally a snarl in good weather because just so many people on the roads. When roads need to be plowed and following distance really should increase to allow for poor braking, it's total gridlock.  Maybe it's improved post-Panini with more people WFH, I don't know.

We are supposed to fly into Miday on Friday. When plans were made, we were all going to Bills game(host family and mine). Pretty much decided last week that was prolly of the table unless host gets access/invites for 8 to a suite, and that has not happened yet LOL.

 

Now we have to decide if its worth even going. Even if we get inThursday morning, Saturday and Sunday look so cold in their house for 3 days. 

 

Gunna wait to see what forecast looks like tomorrow and make decision on go/ no go

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Detroit is in the middle of the image where the storm is going thru...didn't they teach geography in your school?

Are you the guy who was touting the Farmers’ Almanac as a weather forecasting tool?

[MJS]

36 minutes ago, Simon said:

Have you ever seen any analysis in regards to "letdown" games?

Like maybe something the week after an important primetime, playoff clinching win vs a bitter division rival?

I haven't, but I would guess it is the same thing.

 

All it takes is one or two times for it to happen and then it becomes a fan narrative that isn't actually supported by the data in the long-term.

 

Thinking about trap games, fans naturally ignore when it doesn't happen like that, just chalking it up to the better team overcoming the potential for a trap game, but those rare times when they do lose, fans jump on it and see it as proof of the trap game, even though they have many examples to the contrary.

[newcam2012]

9 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Hard to take anything some one says  seriously when they get their information off of Twitter

Your assumption is foolish.