Week 16: Bills at Bears on Christmas Eve

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I hereby declare this week "laugh emoji at all doomer posts" week. Feel free to join in the festivities 

 

The bears are trash. 

 

It's hilarious to see all the "Bills can't win like this in the playoffs" but fail to recognize that playoff games rarely go the way people think they will and usually what gets you beat isn't what you thought would get you beat.

[Southern_Bills]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It's hilarious to see all the "Bills can't win like this in the playoffs" but fail to recognize that playoff games rarely go the way people think they will and usually what gets you beat isn't what you thought would get you beat.

 

The Bills are doing what playoff teams are supposed to do, win by any means necessary. 

 

Good teams always limit your best weapons.

[zow2]

14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

This will be the coldest game the Bills have played in years. Wind 25-30.  Wind chill -14. The team that runs the ball the best wins.  Forget about Josh slinging it around. 

 

That's just brutal.  But I gotta says the Bills played their best game ever in like zero degrees.  But the wind changes a lot.

[uninja]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

That's just brutal.  But I gotta says the Bills played their best game ever in like zero degrees.  But the wind changes a lot.

We’re almost a week out. I think any forecasts are highly subjective atm. Our game against MIA was supposed to be a snowy mess and it was pretty subdued until the last 6 minutes. 
 

 

[Big Turk]

14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

This will be the coldest game the Bills have played in years. Wind 25-30.  Wind chill -14. The team that runs the ball the best wins.  Forget about Josh slinging it around. 

 

You mean other than the game against the Pats last year in the playoff game? Josh threw the ball pretty well in the wind game including a deep pass to Diggs over 2 defenders in the endzone that hit him in the arm and bounced off of him.  Fields has a big enough arm to throw it also I think...

Edited December 19, 2022 by Big Turk

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I haven't, but I would guess it is the same thing.

 

All it takes is one or two times for it to happen and then it becomes a fan narrative that isn't actually supported by the data in the long-term.

 

Thinking about trap games, fans naturally ignore when it doesn't happen like that, just chalking it up to the better team overcoming the potential for a trap game, but those rare times when they do lose, fans jump on it and see it as proof of the trap game, even though they have many examples to the contrary.

 

The thing is (and here is where I believe analytics really need to be localized), the Bills have shown a pattern of "let down games"

2020: big win over the Seahawks -> 17 unanswered 3Q points to Cardinals, L; hard fought playoff win over Ravens -> bad AFCCG loss to Chiefs

2021: big win over the Chiefs -> close loss to the Titans; big win over the Saints -> close loss to the Patriots

2022: big hard-fought win over the Jets, then the Dolphins -> ? what will happen in super-cold away game vs. the Bears?

 

I think there are probably some reasonable rationales.  For example, the team's key players may "put it all out there" in a win and come out of the game hampered with dings and dents or injured, making it harder for the team to play its best the following week.

 

14 minutes ago, NEBranch said:

So I can say from this past weekend's experience that Midway's de-ice capability at night is lacking.  Over two hours from "boarding complete" to takeoff.  It was odd to see people coming in for the morning flights out of Buffalo when I showed up on gameday five hours later than expected.

 

How do you know that was specifically the night de-ice capability, and not an ATC ground delay?

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Beck Water

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Spreads don’t account for losing your starting center and being forced into having a third string guard play center midgame. Saturday night was an easy cover if morse finished the game.  Browns game and second jets games really weren’t ‘close’ by any means.  They were both back door covers.  It seems like Vegas just straight up whiffed on Detroit since they had a historic midseason turnaround…it is not surprising at all that that game was close given the results of their last 7 games (their only loss was to the bills). This was very much not a ‘the bills barely beat a bad team’ scenario. 

 

bears also backdoor covered vs philly with a late garbage time touchdown.  I wouldn’t say the 9 point spread is proof a blowout is coming…the spread is set there because Vegas wants half the bets to be on the bears +9.  It is evidence that a comfortable win is very likely though.  Philly lost the turnover battle 3-1 and still won comfortably because they are a much better team than Chicago

 

seems to me like the psychological torment the bills have inflicted on us for years has caused people to not understand what a close game is haha. That bears eagles game was not very close 

25-13 with 4 minutes to go in the 4th, outgained Chicago 421-248

 

 

I get that but the Eagles result has nothing to do with the Bills game. I was just merely pointing out the Bears are no easy blowout win. Bears don't pass well so of course stays won't favor them most games. They run and run and run. 

 

I'm not really sure how you come away with the Bills haven't played and won close and very close games. Maybe my eyes are deceiving me. 

[BillsBy50]

ReMeMbEr tHe JaGs GaMe

[Bad Things]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

And yet people act like the Buffalo area is the only area in this country that get snow, wind and cold.

 

I’m not from WNY, but it always amazed me at how WNY is basically the only area in this country that is called out for having bad weather, yet I can name a million places that are impacted by weather as much, or more so, than WNY

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'd be very interested to hear your list of a million places. 

(Are they all NFL cities?)

[947]

People worried about the wind, since they built the giant alien mothership on top of Soldier field, the wind isn't as bad is it used to be. 20mph wind there is not the same as it is at Highmark. Still not great, but passes won't look like an MLB slider.

[NEBranch]

33 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

How do you know that was specifically the night de-ice capability, and not an ATC ground delay?

 

That was what the pilot cited as the reason for the delay.  45 mins after being told we were fourth in line for deicing, we were told we moved all the way up to third prompting some wailing and gnashing of teeth among the natives.  Maybe we got caught in a shift change.  We started boarding at about midnight so it wasn't about heavy traffic.

 

[Beast]

I’m pretty confident in our defense this week. The Bills have had huge success defending Lamar Jackson. I would imagine we will see a very similar defensive gameplan against the Bears and Fields.

[Big Turk]

49 minutes ago, uninja said:

We’re almost a week out. I think any forecasts are highly subjective atm. Our game against MIA was supposed to be a snowy mess and it was pretty subdued until the last 6 minutes. 
 

 

 

Widescale synoptic forecasts are likely to be more accurate this far out than very detailed microscale level forecasts where simply a minor shift in wind direction can make a huge difference tho.

[billsfan_34]

49 minutes ago, uninja said:

We’re almost a week out. I think any forecasts are highly subjective atm. Our game against MIA was supposed to be a snowy mess and it was pretty subdued until the last 6 minutes. 
 

 

I have a hunch this prediction is correct - the low is 2 with 35 mph winds. Snow moving in around Friday. This game may get moved - time will tell. 

[Solomon Grundy]

47 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The thing is (and here is where I believe analytics really need to be localized), the Bills have shown a pattern of "let down games"

2020: big win over the Seahawks -> 17 unanswered 3Q points to Cardinals, L; hard fought playoff win over Ravens -> bad AFCCG loss to Chiefs

2021: big win over the Chiefs -> close loss to the Titans; big win over the Saints -> close loss to the Patriots

2022: big hard-fought win over the Jets, then the Dolphins -> ? what will happen in super-cold away game vs. the Bears?

 

I think there are probably some reasonable rationales.  For example, the team's key players may "put it all out there" in a win and come out of the game hampered with dings and dents or injured, making it harder for the team to play its best the following week.

 

 

How do you know that was specifically the night de-ice capability, and not an ATC ground delay?

 

All of this airport talk is exhilarating

 

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

All of this airport talk is exhilarating

 

You're weird LOL

[eball]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

The thing is (and here is where I believe analytics really need to be localized), the Bills have shown a pattern of "let down games"

2020: big win over the Seahawks -> 17 unanswered 3Q points to Cardinals, L; hard fought playoff win over Ravens -> bad AFCCG loss to Chiefs

2021: big win over the Chiefs -> close loss to the Titans; big win over the Saints -> close loss to the Patriots

2022: big hard-fought win over the Jets, then the Dolphins -> ? what will happen in super-cold away game vs. the Bears?

 

I think there are probably some reasonable rationales.  For example, the team's key players may "put it all out there" in a win and come out of the game hampered with dings and dents or injured, making it harder for the team to play its best the following week.

 

 

 

I disagree with your premise that any of these examples were "let down" games, and there are reasonable rationales for all of them -- namely, it's hard to win in the NFL.  There is a reason why literally EVERY coach says it on an almost weekly basis -- because it's true.

 

I'm surprised you didn't say "Remember the Jags" -- that's probably the only one I can think of that was truly a "huh?" moment during the McD/Josh Allen era.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You're weird LOL

I'm Solomon Grundy 😎

[H2o]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

The thing is (and here is where I believe analytics really need to be localized), the Bills have shown a pattern of "let down games"

2020: big win over the Seahawks -> 17 unanswered 3Q points to Cardinals, L; hard fought playoff win over Ravens -> bad AFCCG loss to Chiefs

2021: big win over the Chiefs -> close loss to the Titans; big win over the Saints -> close loss to the Patriots

2022: big hard-fought win over the Jets, then the Dolphins -> ? what will happen in super-cold away game vs. the Bears?

 

I think there are probably some reasonable rationales.  For example, the team's key players may "put it all out there" in a win and come out of the game hampered with dings and dents or injured, making it harder for the team to play its best the following week.

All in 2022:

 

Tough game @ Baltimore, winning 23-20 on a last second FG after erasing a 20-3 deficit. A game where we scored the last 20 points.

The very next week after Baltimore? We beat the brakes off of Pittsburgh 38-3.

The very next week after beating the brakes off of the Steelers? We rally in the last minute of the game to beat KC on their home field 24-20. The defense holds them in the last minute to finish off the comeback. 

 

We have 3 losses by a combined 8 points. Two of those losses were in consecutive weeks. There is no rhyme or reason to our L's, except we were fighting through some key injuries and we hurt ourselves on the field. We've won 5 games in a row, 4 of the 5 coming against teams .500 or better, and are currently the #1 seed in the AFC. This team knows what's at stake. They will not overlook anyone on the schedule. They will be ready for each opponent. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by H2o

[sonyab1974]

We can win this game!!!! The bears have lost 11 games and won only 3!! COME ON BILLS YOU CAN DO THIS!!! GO BILLS!!!!