No interceptions since Minny game and lucky on a few fumble recoveries

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

On 12/18/2022 at 9:59 AM, Billsfan1972 said:

Another reason the defense is not looking good is the lack of interceptions and big plays.  Fourth down stops I don't count and fumbles are really 50/50 propositions (unless strip sacks).

 

Face it a little lucky vs. NYJ (got two fumbles), but would be nice to get an int and give the offense a short field.

what is wrong with you man?

 

gtfo here...

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

what is wrong with you man?

 

gtfo here...

Welcome to put me on ignore.  I stated a fact and concern about Ints.  

 

What is so outlandish about stating a fact?

[njbuff]

It's almost impossible to predict if and when turnovers happen.

 

You would like to see the turnover pendulum in your favor in the playoffs. That's all that matters.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by njbuff

[balln]

16 minutes ago, njbuff said:

It's almost impossible to predict if and when turnovers happen.

 

You would like to see the turnover pendulum in your favor in the playoffs. That's all that matters.

 

 

It’s mostly random. But someone did a comprehensive study on it. I think Bb/ pats staff. 
 

fumbles are entirely random 

 

INTs you have more control of forcing - combo of pass rush / and coverage 

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, balln said:

It’s mostly random. But someone did a comprehensive study on it. I think Bb/ pats staff. 
 

fumbles are entirely random 

 

INTs you have more control of forcing - combo of pass rush / and coverage 

Here's an article I found and focused on Arizona who started last season 7-0.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/are-the-arizona-cardinals-benefitting-because-of-fumble-luck-162300926.html

[Ya Digg?]

On 12/18/2022 at 11:12 AM, NewEra said:

Wth is going on

This is almost like saying “well if you don’t count all of the touchdowns the Bills have only kicked field goals all year” or “if you take away the drives where the Bills made the other team punt, they have given up a touchdown or a field goal on almost every drive”

[MJS]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:19 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Fumbles are luck? Lol a lot of times they’re great tackles/defensive plays.  Why don’t fourth down stops count as big plays? 

Forcing a fumble is not luck. But once the ball is out, it can bounce anywhere and anyone can recover it. That's the luck piece. Bills have had horrible, rotten luck in the fumble recovery space all year. Almost all our forced fumbles have bounced right back to the opposing team, and almost all of our fumbles bounce to an opposing defender. That's bad luck. Spencer Brown recovering that one fumble was huge.

[TheWei44]

Fourth down stops are big plays for sure - Often similar in magnitude/implications as a turnover.

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

Forcing a fumble is not luck. But once the ball is out, it can bounce anywhere and anyone can recover it. That's the luck piece. Bills have had horrible, rotten luck in the fumble recovery space all year. Almost all our forced fumbles have bounced right back to the opposing team, and almost all of our fumbles bounce to an opposing defender. That's bad luck. Spencer Brown recovering that one fumble was huge.

This. I’d like to think that it’s a matter of time before the ball bounces our way but I don’t even get excited when the other team fumbles because I know they’ll just get it back. When we fumble I know it’s going to bounce to them though. Forcing the fumble isn’t luck but which direction the oddly shaped ball bounces is all luck. And we have no good luck. 
 

Not forcing turnovers just means josh has to always be Superman and perfect on nearly every drive. Our passive defensive philosophy is stupid in that our goal shouldn’t be to allow the other team to drive down the field. We should be looking to get the ball back however we can go josh. It’s why I can’t in my mind see us winning it all. It holds us back too often and ultimately will be our downfall. 

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

Fourth down stops are big plays for sure - Often similar in magnitude/implications as a turnover.

The Bills D has been terrible on 4th down stops in the aggregate, however.

[TheWei44]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills D has been terrible on 4th down stops in the aggregate, however.

 

You're right - We've been below average this year overall, and right about average for 2020 and 2021 (I checked the stats).  I'm sure there are a lot of factors impacting the average.  To my eye, the Bills D has generally been good this year in short yardage situations - Maybe 4th downs are an exception to that or that I'm focusing more on recent games?

Edited December 20, 2022 by TheWei44

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

 

You're right - We've been below average this year overall, and right about average for 2020 and 2021 (I checked the stats).  I'm sure there are a lot of factors impacting the average.  To my eye, the Bills D has generally been good this year in short yardage situations - Maybe 4th downs are an exception to that or that I'm focusing more on recent games?

Recent games they've allowed 6-8 (one being fourth & 10 vs. Jets). 

 

Not good. 

 

They've gotten agreed some big third down stops, but then the concern is how they got to 3rd & 1 or 2 too.  Always a debate.  

[BearNorth]

League Average for 4th Down Conversions is 51%, Bills are allowing 59%. 

Bills have converted 50%, but have only tried 12 fourth down conversions.

Suspect that is due both to the high 3rd down conversion rate and McD being conservative unless the game situation calls for it.

[teef]

53 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Appreciate it as always.  At least I didn't start a new thread?😉

 

Yes I think that no ints is an issue.  The fumbles they've recovered are as said often a 50/50 proposition.  

 

Bills btw have recovered quite a few fumbles (it is incorrect below, but they have recovered over 50% of FF).

 

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/fumbles/2022/reg/all

i think the idea of this thread was solid, but the omitting certain criteria always seem to get in your way.

[Freddie's Dead]

***** is your problem?

[Dablitzkrieg]

After we win the superbowl, some idiot will post how our offense struggles in the red zone or the defence can't stop the run.  This ***** is getting old fast

Edited December 20, 2022 by Dablitzkrieg

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

In the last 5 games since Minn, our opponents have 11 fumbles/ 5 lost and 0 interceptions, we have had 4 fumbles/ 2 lost and 1 interception. On the other hand we haven't attempted a fourth down 0/0, our opponents are 6/8.

 

My analysis: turnovers have meant very little, perhaps slightly in Bills favor (+2). Josh is doing a better job protecting the ball, the D is not getting interceptions. Fumble recovery luck is right in line with what you'd expect. Fourth down D has been atrocious and needs to improve.

[Boatdrinks]

6 hours ago, balln said:

Get ready folks. This D is no better than last years. And prob worse in terms of players. You essentially don’t have Jerry , Mario and Hyde. They are sliding big time. 
 

add tre. Settle doesn’t move the needle / isn’t appreciably different than Harrison Phillips. 
 

dQ isn’t an every down player and he’s really good but isn’t going to affect the pass rush in the way you need 

 

it’s all on Allen. And I’m worried about the OL

OMG the D isn’t better than they have been? Pretty sure they’ve been very good during McD’s tenure , but okay I’m ready. It’s a good thing the Bills have Josh Allen - you’d almost think the best QBs are huge in deciding the outcome of football games or something. 

[TheBrownBear]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

Spencer Brown recovering that one fumble was huge.

I'm hoping that was the "tide has turned" play with regards to the fumbles.  It sure felt like it while watching in real time.  All of the momentum was with Miami and Josh had just fumbled on the previous possession, and then he fumbles again but it goes right to Brown.  Then Cook rips off a nice run and Josh hits them  a moment later with the big 45 yard sprint down the sideline and the rest is history.  

 

Now we just need one of our DBs to come down with one of these 50/50 jump balls that the opposing receivers keep plucking out of the azzes. 

[TheBrownBear]

5 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Recent games they've allowed 6-8 (one being fourth & 10 vs. Jets). 

 

Not good. 

 

They've gotten agreed some big third down stops, but then the concern is how they got to 3rd & 1 or 2 too.  Always a debate.  

Yeah, that stat isn't good, but, weirdly, while watching the games (post the back-to-back Jets/Minny debacles) it doesn't seem to me that they are allowing an extraordinary amount of 4th downs.   I guess I was just surprised by it.