Devin Singletary not scoring a TD with 34 seconds left

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, Neo said:

Your condescension aside, and with no comment on the theoretical world you constructed to critique mine, any decision is made in all of our theoretical worlds.  McD made a choice in his theoretical world.  That’s the topic.   I’m not sure I’m correct, but i’d like to see the number of TDs in thirty seconds vs chip shots in snow globes.  We could name the combinations and permutations of 22 players at a time slipping.  Everyone has their favorite risk and uses that as evidence.  None can be eliminated.  I’ll take the points in hand (100%, and the only inarguable certainty in this mess of a debate) and defend.  Sitting in front of a television watching 300 pound men pawing at plastic grass trying to move slippery snow made the points on the board very valuable to me.  You can disagree.  

There are downsides to it anyway that you look at I just think that the bills wanted control of their destiny if you score, and then you turn the ball over to Miami with one time out and all that speed on the office of side, kind of taking it out of your own hands

[Rochesterfan]

6 hours ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Vigorous debate in the bar. We couldn’t hear the announcer, but I was certain Motor gave it up.

 

Most of us, given the conditions, thought that was very unwise. Notwithstanding, I knew the TO situation. Identical to Baltimore, except for the snow falling. We couldn’t even see whether the FG went through!

 

NO chance Tua leads them to a tieing Td with 34 ticks.

Unwise imho.

 

Nope - no chance Tua leads them to a TD with 34 seconds and a timeout - I mean just because it had already happened once in that game already.  

 

I mean it is not like the Dolphins had completed a 60+ yard TD pass earlier in the game as part of a 3 play 72 yard TD drive in 50 seconds with no timeouts.

 

Whether you could see the ball was a camera angle on TV - at the game it was obvious it went through.

Percentage chance to win - A FG/XP from the pre moved XP days was about 98%

 

The Dolphins have 10 TD drives of 6 plays or less and 60+ yards on about 140 drives that is about 7%.

 

Therefore the Bills scoring a TD gave the Dolphins over 3 times the percentage increase in a chance to tie or win the game. 
 

A TD was the wrong move 100% of the time in that situation.  I can not understand how anyone could argue otherwise.

 

Even if he missed the FG - it meant OT - whereas a kick-off to Miami meant they controlled whether the game went to OT or maybe they go for 2 and the win and you lose in regulation.

 

Just look at the Browns/Jets game earlier in the season where Chubb just had to go down to guarantee a victory - instead he scored and the Jets scored 2 TDs (with an on-side kick) to win the game.  Just look at earlier in the day where Minnesota came back from 33 points with some big plays.  Heck just look at how Miami beat Baltimore earlier in the season with 3 long TD passes late in the game to overcome an insurmountable deficit.

 

I just can not believe there is any debate about whether it was the right call because all of the numbers and analytics support the decision.  Plus the mantra of the Bills (and most teams) is control what you can control.  If they can control the final play for a win - that is what teams want to do.  That is always what they should be doing - you have control over the outcome.  
 

Giving the ball back to Miami allows the Refs and the Dolphins to have input and gives the Dolphins control over plays and whether to score and go for 2 and win or tie with an XP.

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

7 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

He did the right thing. Whether people are agreeing with it or not, realize he was coached to do so. This was the coach learning from 13 seconds. 

 

The only thing I will say is 13 seconds occurred because the Bills needed a TD because they were down by 4.  If a FG was needed to win - the Bills never leave 13 seconds, but in that game they had to take the TD when it came.

 

I am not saying he hasn’t learned from the 13 seconds, but it was not like the coaching staff wanted to leave 13 seconds - they just needed a TD to overcome the 4 point deficit.  
 

They learned from watching the Browns lose to the Jets on a similar play and they already knew the Dolphins (and several offensive teams like themselves) have the ability to easily move and at least have TD looks in 30+ seconds with a timeout.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Nope - no chance Tua leads them to a TD with 34 seconds and a timeout - I mean just because it had already happened once in that game already.  

 

I mean it is not like the Dolphins had completed a 60+ yard TD pass earlier in the game as part of a 3 play 72 yard TD drive in 50 seconds with no timeouts.

 

Whether you could see the ball was a camera angle on TV - at the game it was obvious it went through.

Percentage chance to win - A FG/XP from the pre moved XP days was about 98%

 

The Dolphins have 10 TD drives of 6 plays or less and 60+ yards on about 140 drives that is about 7%.

 

Therefore the Bills scoring a TD gave the Dolphins over 3 times the percentage increase in a chance to tie or win the game. 
 

A TD was the wrong move 100% of the time in that situation.  I can not understand how anyone could argue otherwise.

 

Even if he missed the FG - it meant OT - whereas a kick-off to Miami meant they controlled whether the game went to OT or maybe they go for 2 and the win and you lose in regulation.

 

Just look at the Browns/Jets game earlier in the season where Chubb just had to go down to guarantee a victory - instead he scored and the Jets scored 2 TDs (with an on-side kick) to win the game.  Just look at earlier in the day where Minnesota came back from 33 points with some big plays.  Heck just look at how Miami beat Baltimore earlier in the season with 3 long TD passes late in the game to overcome an insurmountable deficit.

 

I just can not believe there is any debate about whether it was the right call because all of the numbers and analytics support the decision.  Plus the mantra of the Bills (and most teams) is control what you can control.  If they can control the final play for a win - that is what teams want to do.  That is always what they should be doing - you have control over the outcome.  
 

Giving the ball back to Miami allows the Refs and the Dolphins to have input and gives the Dolphins control over plays and whether to score and go for 2 and win or tie with an XP.

 

I commend this post to the house. I think it is so obvious I couldn't be bothered to write all this out myself. But to the letter it is correct. 

 

The only thing I'd add is if we take the touchdown and Miami scores the touchdown to level I think it would have been 90%+ that they go for 2. What is there for them to lose in that situation? They are the team behind in the divisional race. They are the one who needed the win more from a "getting into the postseason" perspective. They almost certainly try and win the game there and then. 

 

It was 100% the right move from Devin to go down. And with two defenders converging even staying up to fight for 1 extra yard would have risked them dragging him into the endzone. He played it perfectly. 

[eball]

After @Rochesterfan’s post the thread should have been closed.

 

Great work.

 

[hemma]

@Rochesterfan

 

Great, well researched post!

 

[BullBuchanan]

On 12/19/2022 at 12:50 PM, Rochesterfan said:

 

So you were worried about a slip on a short FG, but would of been ok with the longer XP and a significantly more important kickoff.

 

I just don’t know what to say.

If he slips on the XP, he already scored the touchdown - don't understand how that figures into it. The bills kickoff and game is over. He should be less likely to slip on the kickoff, but if he does then they get the ball at their own 40,45 best case scenario? So they get one play to throw the ball 55+ yards. Ok fine. If that's the worst case scenario I'm cool with that.

If they miss the FG, there's a chance the bills never possess the ball again and lose.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If he slips on the XP, he already scored the touchdown - don't understand how that figures into it. The bills kickoff and game is over. He should be less likely to slip on the kickoff, but if he does then they get the ball at their own 40,45 best case scenario? So they get one play to throw the ball 55+ yards. Ok fine. If that's the worst case scenario I'm cool with that.

If they miss the FG, there's a chance the bills never possess the ball again and lose.

 

34 seconds and 1 time out. That is minimum 4 maximum 6 plays. It was not down to a single play hail mary scenario if Singletary scored. 

 

All the analytics says you play for the kick there. It was 100% the right move.

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

34 seconds and 1 time out. That is minimum 4 maximum 6 plays. It was not down to a single play hail mary scenario if Singletary scored. 

 

All the analytics says you play for the kick there. It was 100% the right move.

Not if you go down after the first down bleed the clock off and then score with under 10 seconds like I suggested. As a data guy, there aren't any analytics that take into account the specific weather conditions.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Not if you go down after the first down bleed the clock off and then score with under 10 seconds like I suggested. As a data guy, there aren't any analytics that take into account the specific weather conditions.

 

The problem with fighting even a yard further for the first down is that as the defenders converged they could well have dragged him into the endzone. Singletary judged it right. Not like the snow was deep, was easily clearable before the kick as the Bills in fact did. They played it perfectly.

[Rochesterfan]

11 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If he slips on the XP, he already scored the touchdown - don't understand how that figures into it. The bills kickoff and game is over. He should be less likely to slip on the kickoff, but if he does then they get the ball at their own 40,45 best case scenario? So they get one play to throw the ball 55+ yards. Ok fine. If that's the worst case scenario I'm cool with that.

If they miss the FG, there's a chance the bills never possess the ball again and lose.

 

So you bleed the clock to what - the Dolphins stopped the clock with 34 seconds with their final timeout.  If you run the ball to score it takes what 4-5 seconds - you are kicking off to the Dolphins with 30 seconds left - you can’t bleed the clock unless you go down in play.

 

So if you are scoring you are giving them 30 seconds - probably 4 plays to get a shot at a TD.  That is significantly easier for the Dolphins to still win than standing there with 0:02 seconds and trying to stop a FG from the 20 yard line.

 

In your scenario the only way to do what you suggest would be after Singletary went down - have him run another play and get down to bleed the clock to 10 seconds, use a timeout, then run another play trying to score and hope he doesn’t get held up and either he scores or you still have to kick a FG after additional snaps.

 

It is insane and 100% the worst way to play it.

 

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

On 12/20/2022 at 5:41 AM, Rochesterfan said:

 

Nope - no chance Tua leads them to a TD with 34 seconds and a timeout - I mean just because it had already happened once in that game already.  

 

I mean it is not like the Dolphins had completed a 60+ yard TD pass earlier in the game as part of a 3 play 72 yard TD drive in 50 seconds with no timeouts.

 

Whether you could see the ball was a camera angle on TV - at the game it was obvious it went through.

Percentage chance to win - A FG/XP from the pre moved XP days was about 98%

 

The Dolphins have 10 TD drives of 6 plays or less and 60+ yards on about 140 drives that is about 7%.

 

Therefore the Bills scoring a TD gave the Dolphins over 3 times the percentage increase in a chance to tie or win the game. 
 

A TD was the wrong move 100% of the time in that situation.  I can not understand how anyone could argue otherwise.

 

Even if he missed the FG - it meant OT - whereas a kick-off to Miami meant they controlled whether the game went to OT or maybe they go for 2 and the win and you lose in regulation.

 

Just look at the Browns/Jets game earlier in the season where Chubb just had to go down to guarantee a victory - instead he scored and the Jets scored 2 TDs (with an on-side kick) to win the game.  Just look at earlier in the day where Minnesota came back from 33 points with some big plays.  Heck just look at how Miami beat Baltimore earlier in the season with 3 long TD passes late in the game to overcome an insurmountable deficit.

 

I just can not believe there is any debate about whether it was the right call because all of the numbers and analytics support the decision.  Plus the mantra of the Bills (and most teams) is control what you can control.  If they can control the final play for a win - that is what teams want to do.  That is always what they should be doing - you have control over the outcome.  
 

Giving the ball back to Miami allows the Refs and the Dolphins to have input and gives the Dolphins control over plays and whether to score and go for 2 and win or tie with an XP.

 

 

Methodical drive lasting nearly 6 minutes, leaving no time on the clock for last minute heroics, a stake through the heart and The End. 
 

It was beautiful, man. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 12/20/2022 at 5:41 AM, Rochesterfan said:

 

Nope - no chance Tua leads them to a TD with 34 seconds and a timeout - I mean just because it had already happened once in that game already.  

 

I mean it is not like the Dolphins had completed a 60+ yard TD pass earlier in the game as part of a 3 play 72 yard TD drive in 50 seconds with no timeouts.

 

Whether you could see the ball was a camera angle on TV - at the game it was obvious it went through.

Percentage chance to win - A FG/XP from the pre moved XP days was about 98%

 

The Dolphins have 10 TD drives of 6 plays or less and 60+ yards on about 140 drives that is about 7%.

 

Therefore the Bills scoring a TD gave the Dolphins over 3 times the percentage increase in a chance to tie or win the game. 
 

A TD was the wrong move 100% of the time in that situation.  I can not understand how anyone could argue otherwise.

 

Even if he missed the FG - it meant OT - whereas a kick-off to Miami meant they controlled whether the game went to OT or maybe they go for 2 and the win and you lose in regulation.

 

Just look at the Browns/Jets game earlier in the season where Chubb just had to go down to guarantee a victory - instead he scored and the Jets scored 2 TDs (with an on-side kick) to win the game.  Just look at earlier in the day where Minnesota came back from 33 points with some big plays.  Heck just look at how Miami beat Baltimore earlier in the season with 3 long TD passes late in the game to overcome an insurmountable deficit.

 

I just can not believe there is any debate about whether it was the right call because all of the numbers and analytics support the decision.  Plus the mantra of the Bills (and most teams) is control what you can control.  If they can control the final play for a win - that is what teams want to do.  That is always what they should be doing - you have control over the outcome.  
 

Giving the ball back to Miami allows the Refs and the Dolphins to have input and gives the Dolphins control over plays and whether to score and go for 2 and win or tie with an XP.

 

 

Good post. Can't believe this is still being debated

[Rochesterfan]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The problem with fighting even a yard further for the first down is that as the defenders converged they could well have dragged him into the endzone. Singletary judged it right. Not like the snow was deep, was easily clearable before the kick as the Bills in fact did. They played it perfectly.

 

Totally correct - if you watch the Dolphin that dives over Singletary- he was not going to wrap up - the 2 Dolphin potential tacklers were both coming from behind and looked after he went down like they had intentions of trying to hit and drive him forward toward the goal line.

 

I don’t think either one had intentions of trying to tackle him in play.

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The problem with fighting even a yard further for the first down is that as the defenders converged they could well have dragged him into the endzone. Singletary judged it right. Not like the snow was deep, was easily clearable before the kick as the Bills in fact did. They played it perfectly.

They played it perfectly is all that needs to be said. 

[Htt2821]

I am legit shocked this has gone 18 pages…unreal. 

[Rubes]

I mean, it also comes down to this: at that point in the game, the only way Miami controls their destiny (not by "hoping" Buffalo screws up) is by getting the ball back. In that situation, the only way they get the ball back is either Singletary scoring, or the Bills messing up the FG.

 

Why would you ever strategically give the opposing team what they want?

 

[BullBuchanan]

47 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

So you bleed the clock to what - the Dolphins stopped the clock with 34 seconds with their final timeout.  If you run the ball to score it takes what 4-5 seconds - you are kicking off to the Dolphins with 30 seconds left - you can’t bleed the clock unless you go down in play.

 

So if you are scoring you are giving them 30 seconds - probably 4 plays to get a shot at a TD.  That is significantly easier for the Dolphins to still win than standing there with 0:02 seconds and trying to stop a FG from the 20 yard line.

 

In your scenario the only way to do what you suggest would be after Singletary went down - have him run another play and get down to bleed the clock to 10 seconds, use a timeout, then run another play trying to score and hope he doesn’t get held up and either he scores or you still have to kick a FG after additional snaps.

 

It is insane and 100% the worst way to play it.

 

 

I'm not giving them 30 seconds. How many times do I have to say it? I'm giving them 5-10 with no timeouts.

Edited December 21, 2022 by BullBuchanan

[KHAN]

46 minutes ago, Htt2821 said:

I am legit shocked this has gone 18 pages…unreal. 

Unfortunately almost every thread turns in to combative attacks on each other rather than a friendly discourse if opinions/ideas. Hate for Brady/Belichick threads seem to have more camaraderie. lol

 

From my POV, the Bills had 2 options that both had very high win percentages. They chose one .It worked. You can make a cogent argument for either choice. Now it's mostly just people who feel the need to argue for arguments sake.

 

 

 

Nothing good ever comes after page 1.

Edited December 21, 2022 by KHAN

[kota]

It won us the game.  Not sure why people are so crazy about this.  If he scored that gives Miami around 30 seconds on the clock to try and match the game.  This way you give them no time and a chip shot FG that was shorter than an extra point.  You have to believe that your kicker will make that 100 percent of the time.  

Glad McD has more faith than you all.