NFL Week #15 - Fish at Buffalo - Post Game Thread

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Not sure I saw Hart out there st RG.  Van Roten moved to C and Quessenberry played RG from my vantage point.  

Yea just checked the snap counts…kind of the same deal with quessenberry/van roten though so you can just substitute the names lol. Looks like hart was just in as an extra blocker on quite a few plays and messing things up so I just assumed he had weaseled his way into the starting lineup 😂 van roten at center is a huge problem.  The offensive line seemed to play well in the first half.  Josh had tons of time.  Then morse went down and it was like flipping a switch 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

Can someone explain how the QBR is calculated, please?

 

No.

 

Literally: No.

 

No one can.  QBR is a "frankenstat" created by ESPN in an attempt to measure QB efficiency:

Quote

Total quarterback rating (abbreviated as total QBR or simply QBR) is a proprietary statistic created by ESPN in 2011 to measure the performance of quarterbacks in American football. It incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team's level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context, then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammates to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency. It was created to be a more meaningful alternative to the passer rating but has been met with criticism among fans and commentators alike.

 

Quote

Further criticism of QBR was brought about when, before some tinkering with the equation of QBR, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Charlie Batch had the greatest individual game ever evaluated by QBR with a score of 99.9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on September 26, 2010. Batch threw for 186 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the game. He also ran five times for 26 yards. Statistics that helped Batch's QBR rise were that he was not sacked, did not fumble, and that he completed 70.6% of his passes, one of which he spiked into the ground to stop the clock.[13]
(...)
Further controversy erupted when the Total QBR system gave the Denver Broncos' Tim Tebow a higher rating than the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers in their respective Week 5 contests in 2011. Noting that Rodgers completed 26 of 39 passes for 396 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, while Tebow completed four of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown, and six rushes for 38 yards and a touchdown, in a loss to the San Diego Chargers. In a more recent example, a game played on September 24, 2017, Alex Smith of Kansas City Chiefs received an inexplicable QBR of 7.8, half as much as the equally-bad QBR of 16.1 for his counterpart Philip Rivers of the Los Angeles Chargers, even though Smith had a higher completion rate (16/21 vs. 20/40), a better average per completion (7.8 yds vs. 5.9), a far superior TD/int ratio (2-0 vs. 0-3), and won the game handily 24-10. For comparison, the RTG, 128.1 for Smith and 37.2 for Rivers, was by far a better metric of success. Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com wrote that he'll "continue to ignore ESPN’s Total QBR stat."[15] Rodgers himself was surprised: "I saw the [QBR stats] and chuckled to myself. I played a full game, [Tebow] played the half. He completed four passes, I completed 26. I think it incorporates QB runs as well ... The weighting of it doesn't make a whole lot of sense."[16]

 

I've heard it's calculated with something like 10,000 lines of code and no one really understands what goes into it, or comes out of it.

 

They've tried to tinker with it to avoid ridiculous numbers as called out above, but it's still...got its quirks.

 

Part of the problem is that it includes metrics like how much pressure the QB is under, a bunch more stuff that is relatively subjective.  So if the subjective metrics aren't assessed accurately, GIGO applies.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Beck Water

[Adam]

Was anyone listening to WGR's stream of the game last night? It cut out on me early in the second quarter

[YoloinOhio]

😃

 

 

[BlazinBill]

2 hours ago, BernieBill said:

It's funny to see the negative reactions, as if the Bills had the game in hand the whole way, as if fans were not complaining all game long about the lack of defensive preparation ... San Francisco's defense dominated Miami, a horribly banged up Chargers defense dominated Miami ... and then the Bills defense performs the way it did last night ... Raheem Mostert looking like a Hall of Famer ... apparently some fans only look at the result and ignore the underlying problems

Every week is different - we got worked in the first half - it was hard to watch getting gashed - honestly the real difference was the attempts/committing to the run by them- we need some serious gap integrity and tackling work, but to think other teams shutting g t down equates to us shutting them down is kinda just a hope- should we of absolutely - is it a guarantee we will because some other team did -

Go Bills - 11-3 showing tough ess and fighting though it it was I'm clinging to today

 

[muppy]

8 hours ago, Playoffs? said:

Miami fans calling Allen trash for telling the Dolphins fans to go home. Same as they did when Allen waved goodbye to dolphins players in Miami.

But why would they ever seek to understand the whole story?

Miami fans literally hate Josh Allens guts. Ive read their critiques. They call him "wonderboy" "overhyped" crap like that. He is and will be for years to come a bane to their existance. Rivalry? OH YASSSSSS

 

lol fish fans.. Its JEALOUSEY  and Bitterness............. Pobrecitos

 

😏

Edited December 18, 2022 by muppy

[Billz4ever]

Needs for next week: I'd like an early Christmas present and have both Morse and Phillips back in the lineup.

 

Morse is the lynchpin of our O-Line and Phillips would've made a difference against the run yesterday.

[HOUSE]

Unless you are a hopeless diehard

This game was sh**

[UKBillFan]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

No.

 

Literally: No.

 

No one can.  QBR is a "frankenstat" created by ESPN in an attempt to measure QB efficiency:

 

 

I've heard it's calculated with something like 10,000 lines of code and no one really understands what goes into it, or comes out of it.

 

They've tried to tinker with it to avoid ridiculous numbers as called out above, but it's still...got its quirks.

 

Thank you. It's basically rubbish, then!

[Buddo]

The Bills have had problems against Shanahan style running games, for ages.

 

Thankfully, not too many teams seem to be able to recreate them.

 

Unfortunately, it appears McDaniels might be able to.

 

The Bills were once again their own worst enemy. Way too many fundamental mistakes being made, from a lack of tackling on D, to STs miss cues - roughing the kicker an obvious one, and then poor decisions about fielding kicks/punts.

 

The latter I was unpleasantly surprised by, as Hines I thought, up until this week, had made pretty much the right decision since he's been back there.

 

I think our 1st choice O-Line is OK to decent, when fully fit. When they aren't, all bets are off. 

 

Upgrades are essential there in the off season.

 

Tbh, I'm less down on the coaches, than many

 

On Offense, Hines and Morris both scored their first ever TDs for the Bills - not exactly a sign that the Offense is too predictable.

 

There were too many drops (again), and they were often on balls with less heat on them, than Allen used as the game went on.

 

The extra banged up version of the O-Line, (after Morse went out), only got their sh1t together when the snow came(just in time).

 

The tackling on the D, was horrendous. Epenesa on the first big Mostert run, was trying to knock the football out, rather than tackling him. First man in, makes the tackle. Second man in, is the guy who tries to affect the football.

 

Something that needs to be stressed, is that you stop the guy first, at the expense of anything else, like going for the 'big hit', or going after the football. Way too many arm tackle efforts, that failed miserably.

 

Execution, was hopeless, but it wasn't that guys were in the wrong places loads, it was that they didn't execute their techniques properly.

 

That part, is on the coaches, but it should be on the coaches of the individual groups, rather than the Co-ordinator.

 

That was a tough win, but it need not have been, if we hadn't kept giving ourselves additional challenges.

 

While we might not be in a position to address roster weaknesses atm, there is a lot that can be put right, with a good week of practise.

 

As last night showed, with Josh at the helm, we aren't out of any game, but we can certainly do a lot more to make his life earlier.

 

When all is said and done, that was a hugely important win, and credit to the team for really showing up late on, to get it done - before Josh's heroics, the D made a couple of good stops.

2 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Thank you. It's basically rubbish, then!

 

It comes up with the most bizarre ratings imaginable.

 

I prefer the 'old school' QB Passer rating, not least because it has clarity.

[muppy]

5 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

Jenna Cottrell mentioned this on the Buffalo Plus channel and actually became very emotional when she told the full story (she is a cancer survivor herself) and basically reiterated how special Allen is and how he goes out of his way to do stuff like this. 

Im not crying You're crying. 

 

Actually I'm a puddle. There are no words o describe how beautiful a person our #17 is

[stevewin]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

You’ve heard of “balls of steel”… how about “balls of ice”!

 

Ice Balls should be Allen’s new nickname.

 

 

I said in the game thread the way the announcers were so breathlessly and earnestly discussing "ice balls" you would have thought fans were hurling big chunks of metal onto the field.  Ice balls - give me a break.  Today small children all over WNY will be participating in "ice ball" fights.  Prayers that at least the majority survive

Edited December 18, 2022 by stevewin

[muppy]

4 hours ago, Mango said:

It seems like it’s been 3-4 straight weeks where sideline reporters are mentioning Diggs yelling about wanting the ball.

 

I don’t like it. 

I was talking about this to hubby last night. PLEASE Stefon Please don't be the guy that thinks he is the Only man who can help our team win. It's just not the kind of thing you want to begin to grow and fester on the TEAM. Hear me bro TEAM. They Love you. You'll get your touches. 

[Kirby Jackson]

I’ve NEVER seen a whinier fan base following a loss. The takeaway from them was “the refs.”

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve NEVER seen a whinier fan base following a loss. The takeaway from them was “the refs.”

We've got a pretty whiny one after a win

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

If bates was ready to go it would not have been nearly as bad when morse went down. Boettger will be coming back too so we hopefully won’t get stuck in a van roten/Bobby hart clusterf**** again lol 

 

Agree.  Has to be realized that Van Roten is essentially our 3rd string C.

 

3 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

We've got a pretty whiny one after a win

 

The Truth

Edited December 18, 2022 by Beck Water

[Logic]

Plenty has been said and will continue to be said about this game, good and bad. 

I'll just add one bit of positivity:

The Bills have been showing a lot of mettle in recent weeks in terms of winning close games. When things aren't going perfectly, or when they go down by a score late in a game, they're finding ways to hang in, come back, and get the job done.

In recent years, I've felt like this team was a bit of a front runner. That is, when things were going well and they were having their way, they were blowing teams out. But when adversity hit and games got close or they got on the wrong side of the scoreboard in the 4th quarter, they were a different team, and not in a good way. Lately, though, they've been overcoming that and finding all sorts of ways to win.

Now sure, you could look at it more pessimistically and say that it's a bad thing that they're not still blowing more teams out, that they require late game heroics to win ball games. And that's fair. I would counter, though, that in the types of big games we hope to see the Bills playing in -- AFC Title games and Super Bowls -- blowouts are not likely to happen. Those types of games are likely to be close, and to require late game competency, mettle, and an ability to overcome adversity against talented opponents.

Thinking about games like the Lions and last night's Dolphins game, I can't help but feel like there are encouraging signs of a growth for this team.

Lastly, let us not forget that it was a huge divisional win in prime time against a talented and very motivated opponent. At the end of the season, no one asks "how?", they just ask "how many?", and to that end, the Bills have won five straight and sit 11-3, the number one seed in the AFC. Considering the adversity they've faced this season -- ridiculous amounts of injuries, the loss of players as good as Micah Hyde and Von Miller, Josh's elbow injury -- that's really impressive stuff.

Go Bills!

Edited December 18, 2022 by Logic

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve NEVER seen a whinier fan base following a loss. The takeaway from them was “the refs.”

I thought the Bills got a lot of favorable calls honestly. I think we would have done the same had things been reversed. 

[Process]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve NEVER seen a whinier fan base following a loss. The takeaway from them was “the refs.”

You must be new here

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

We've got a pretty whiny one after a win

Oh, we are BRUTAL. This is beyond us. Usually you see a mix of excuses and “the better team one.” The fins fans, universally, believe that they were robbed by the refs.