A Tale of Two Seasons (It Was the Best of Times, It Was OK, At Least We're Winning)

[st pete gogolak]

I've posted on this before but now I'm paranoid obsessive about it.  We've played 13 games, so half the season is up to the end of the first half of the Packers game.  Josh's stats at that point were 167 completions on 249 attempts (67%) for 2101 yards, 19 TD's and 4 INT's.  Definitely MVP numbers.  From the second half of the Packers game and the following six games, his stats are 133 completions on 221 attempts (60%) for 1452 yards with 7 TD's and 7 INT's.  Weather for the Vikings game wasn't great and was terrible for second Jets game.  On the other hand, two of the games were in a dome and in the first half of the season, we played the Dolphins in a sauna and the Ravens in a driving rain.

 

So, is it physical (obviously elbow but lousy game and a half before elbow injury)?  Mental?  Lousy play-calling?  Dropped passes?  Worse play from the offensive line?  A combination of all of the above?  Much more conservative play over the last four games leading to 6 TD's and only one pick on a tipped ball and, oh yeah, four wins.  

 

Still believe something happened in the first half of Packers game to impact him physically and whatever it was, it didn't go away immediately then was followed by the elbow issue.

 

It's been a brutal schedule so far this year.  Really hoping for a big game this week or next week from Josh to put an end to the string of "mediocre numbers" and go into the playoffs with this as a dead issue.

 

 

[LeGOATski]

It's normal to go through struggles during the season.

 

Schedule, injuries, and defenses adjusting to the Bills offense have all factored into these struggles.

 

Thankfully, the Bills have still won games throughout, actually winning their close games this year instead of falling short.

 

A tough schedule still remains, but playing good complimentary football should keep them rolling and allow them to head into the playoffs with the #1 seed.

[RobbRiddick]

Ah, a Dickens reference on the board. Who said us Bills fans are a bunch of uncultured table jumpers!

[The Wiz]

13 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

Ah, a Dickens reference on the board. Who said us Bills fans are a bunch of uncultured table jumpers!

I thought it was Dr. Suess?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Buffalo is 10-3 and the number 1 seed. Yes, the numbers could be better but you can’t really argue w/ those results. Winning tight games like these will give them the confidence they need going into the playoffs where the games will be a lot closer and defensive. I’m loving what I’ve seen so far. Allen doesn’t have to win it all by himself. This defense is highly capable of winning on their own now that we have Tre White back and a healthy set of linebackers. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[NewEra]

I think every season is made up of 3-4 mini seasons. This season has been no different-  

 

Mini season 1- week 1 through Green Bay halftime.  Dominance with one set back due to injury and luck.  Injuries 

 

Mini season 2- 2nd half of Green Bay through the Vikings game.  What happened to our QB?  Can Dorsey handle being OC?  More injuries

 

Mini season 3-  cleveland through now.  Perseverance required.  Perseverance, check.  Building blocks for the SB run.  No more Von Miller, time for other to step up.  
 

4 games left-  who knows if there will be another (or multiple) mini season(s) to end the year or if mini season 3 continues to roll along…. I can’t wait to find out!!  

 

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by NewEra

[Xwnyer]

1 hour ago, st pete gogolak said:

I've posted on this before but now I'm paranoid obsessive about it.  We've played 13 games, so half the season is up to the end of the first half of the Packers game.  Josh's stats at that point were 167 completions on 249 attempts (67%) for 2101 yards, 19 TD's and 4 INT's.  Definitely MVP numbers.  From the second half of the Packers game and the following six games, his stats are 133 completions on 221 attempts (60%) for 1452 yards with 7 TD's and 7 INT's.  Weather for the Vikings game wasn't great and was terrible for second Jets game.  On the other hand, two of the games were in a dome and in the first half of the season, we played the Dolphins in a sauna and the Ravens in a driving rain.

 

So, is it physical (obviously elbow but lousy game and a half before elbow injury)?  Mental?  Lousy play-calling?  Dropped passes?  Worse play from the offensive line?  A combination of all of the above?  Much more conservative play over the last four games leading to 6 TD's and only one pick on a tipped ball and, oh yeah, four wins.  

 

Still believe something happened in the first half of Packers game to impact him physically and whatever it was, it didn't go away immediately then was followed by the elbow issue.

 

It's been a brutal schedule so far this year.  Really hoping for a big game this week or next week from Josh to put an end to the string of "mediocre numbers" and go into the playoffs with this as a dead issue.

 

 

You running with the concussion theory?

[HOUSE]

I am starting to believe Josh and Ken Dorsey are NOT the best of friends right now 

[ganesh]

46 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think every season is made up of 3-4 mini seasons. This season has been no different-  

 

Mini season 1- week 1 through Green Bay halftime.  Dominance with one set back due to injury and luck.

 

Mini season 2- 2nd half of Green Bay through the Vikings game.  What happened to our QB?  Can Dorsey handle being OC?

 

Mini season 3-  cleveland through now.  Perseverance required.  Perseverance, check.  Building blocks for the SB run.  
 

4 games left-  who knows if there will be another (or multiple) mini season(s) to end the year or if mini season 3 continues to roll along…. I can’t wait to find out!!  

 

 

May be mini-season 1 comes back us mini-season-4

[transient]

43 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

I am starting to believe Josh and Ken Dorsey are NOT the best of friends right now 

I think Josh, Gabe, and Isaiah don't trust one another right now, and it's limiting what they can do offensively. I think teams learned to take Gabe out of his element and Isaiah is his same ol' unreliable self.

[mjt328]

If you look closer, the offense actually hasn't been playing consistently good since Week 2.

 

It started in Miami with mostly Red Zone problems, and drive killing drops.  They also struggled to move the ball much of the first half against both the Ravens and the Chiefs.  Since that point, they have had some nice stretches and had some decent stats on paper.  But to any fan who watches this team weekly, it's obvious that something hasn't been quite right.  Things are coming in short bursts, and not from a steady rhythm.

 

My belief is that teams are focused on taking away the deep shots from our offense, and we are struggling to get reliable play from the short passing game.  For three seasons, this team got a lot of production from the slot.  With Jameson Crowder hurt, Isaiah McKenzie dropping passes and Khalil Shakir pretty much invisible as a rookie, we no longer have the someone who can get the easy 4-5 yards over the middle. 

 

On top of that, Gabe Davis has proven to be a deep threat with questionable hands, and not much else.  Dawson Knox has been used more as a blocker this season, and leaking out into the flats.  He doesn't seem to get a lot of work from the slot either.  They have gotten the backs (mostly James Cook) involved in the passing game somewhat, but not consistently.

 

There is a reason this team re-signed Cole Beasley.  It may be the key piece we've been missing.

 

[SoCal Deek]

8 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

If you look closer, the offense actually hasn't been playing consistently good since Week 2.

 

It started in Miami with mostly Red Zone problems, and drive killing drops.  They also struggled to move the ball much of the first half against both the Ravens and the Chiefs.  Since that point, they have had some nice stretches and had some decent stats on paper.  But to any fan who watches this team weekly, it's obvious that something hasn't been quite right.  Things are coming in short bursts, and not from a steady rhythm.

 

My belief is that teams are focused on taking away the deep shots from our offense, and we are struggling to get reliable play from the short passing game.  For three seasons, this team got a lot of production from the slot.  With Jameson Crowder hurt, Isaiah McKenzie dropping passes and Khalil Shakir pretty much invisible as a rookie, we no longer have the someone who can get the easy 4-5 yards over the middle. 

 

On top of that, Gabe Davis has proven to be a deep threat with questionable hands, and not much else.  Dawson Knox has been used more as a blocker this season, and leaking out into the flats.  He doesn't seem to get a lot of work from the slot either.  They have gotten the backs (mostly James Cook) involved in the passing game somewhat, but not consistently.

 

There is a reason this team re-signed Cole Beasley.  It may be the key piece we've been missing.

 

I agree. The Daboll version of the Bills offense featured a ton of short quick out routes to Diggs and others. Seven yards, tap the toes, do it again. It seemed like Josh could literally throw that route on every play all the way down the field if he had wanted to, or at least until Daboll got bored with it. That appears to be gone now. I’m not sure why. 

[vincec]

22 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

If you look closer, the offense actually hasn't been playing consistently good since Week 2.

 

It started in Miami with mostly Red Zone problems, and drive killing drops.  They also struggled to move the ball much of the first half against both the Ravens and the Chiefs.  Since that point, they have had some nice stretches and had some decent stats on paper.  But to any fan who watches this team weekly, it's obvious that something hasn't been quite right.  Things are coming in short bursts, and not from a steady rhythm.

 

My belief is that teams are focused on taking away the deep shots from our offense, and we are struggling to get reliable play from the short passing game.  For three seasons, this team got a lot of production from the slot.  With Jameson Crowder hurt, Isaiah McKenzie dropping passes and Khalil Shakir pretty much invisible as a rookie, we no longer have the someone who can get the easy 4-5 yards over the middle. 

 

On top of that, Gabe Davis has proven to be a deep threat with questionable hands, and not much else.  Dawson Knox has been used more as a blocker this season, and leaking out into the flats.  He doesn't seem to get a lot of work from the slot either.  They have gotten the backs (mostly James Cook) involved in the passing game somewhat, but not consistently.

 

There is a reason this team re-signed Cole Beasley.  It may be the key piece we've been missing.

 

It’s not that hard to understand. Teams are playing the Bills with a lot of zone or hybrid zone defenses with a focus on Diggs. These reduce Allen’s scrambling ability and take away the deep stuff. To combat this the Bills need be able to either “run them out of it” by gashing the light boxes with the run game or throw it to inside targets like the TE, RB and slot WR. Problem is that this has only been moderately effective because the Bills don’t really have a dominant running game outside of Allen and have unreliable inside receivers.

Edited December 15, 2022 by vincec

[T master]

I don't listen to a huge variety of football pod casts & such mostly 1 Bills Live & i read some things inhere & the NFL network but according to something Tasker has referred to the Bills SOS (Strength of Schedule) this season has been one of the toughest then you throw in all of the injuries which haven't been a problem in the recent past it's been a tough year .

 

The Bills have came through to this point pretty good 10-3 not bad leading not only the division but a top of the AFC not bad yet there are those that are ready to fire every body they all suck coaches, GM, players WTH these people are thinking i really don't get !! 

 

This team if completely healthy could be 12-1 with the fluke of the Miami game which the Bills are going to prove was a aberration & take the east once again . Every team will be bringing their best the Bills have a target on them because they are so good & they are usually better off with the lack of injuries but not this season .

 

I looked at all the "Must See Plays" yesterday on the NFL net work neither the Knox TD catch or the Josh Hurdle Flip were among them which to me means they aren't as key on the Bills as they were again the lack of respect thing but i'm good with that i like the Bills in the underdog role .

 

All the praise in the beginning of the season was kind of scaring me & when the injuries started to come around i thought the wheels could come off but they have held it together & i think right where they need to be & with Beasely being back that's just 1 more comfortable weapon that Josh has in his arsenal

so i'm feeling good about the last 4 games & the play offs .

 

Although i do wish Von & Micah were on the field to add to the Bills potency on O & D but they will be helping still so GO BILLS !!! 

[Fleezoid]

The culture references are fine, but the mods better shut this thread down quick if there's any hint of an Oedipus reference.

[TheBrownBear]

16 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I thought it was Dr. Suess?

You're thinking of Dr. McDaniel when asked about Saturday: "We will not beat them in the cold.  We will not beat them on the road. We will not beat them in the snow.  We'll get our @ss kicked this I know."

[msw2112]

A few things:

 

1.  Quality of opponent.  The Bills schedule is much more difficult at this point in the season than expected.  Our opponents from "tough" early games games such as the Rams and Titans have turned out to not be very good teams.  Even the Packers have turned out to not be very good.  On the other hand, the Jets, Dolphins, Vikings and Lions are all much better than expected at the beginning of the season.

 

2.  Injuries.  The Bills have had a ton of them, and they have been to key players at key times.  Some are obvious - Hyde, Miller, etc. and others are more subtle (guys are banged up and less than 100%, but able to go) - Allen, Milano, etc.

 

3.  Chemistry on offense.  The Bills are 10-3 and holding the #1 seed.  They will be favored in at least 3 of their 4 final games.  Still, the offense just seems a little off.  Even when they succeed, they don't seem to have the rythym that they've had in the past.  I think that #1 and #2 above are contributing to that.  There is so much film on what the Bills do well that opponents have adjusted defensively to make it more difficult for the Bills and these improving teams are able to do it (#1).  For example, in the past few seasons, the Bills could do whatever they wanted offensively against the Jets and the Jets couldn't stop it.  Now, the Jets have better players and better coaching and they can challenge the Bills offense.  And, whether the OL is playing well or not (and it is largely not), Josh is not 100% physically (#2). 

 

4.  Outlook.  Fortunatley, the Bills run defense is so much better than last year, and the pass defense is good enough when it counts (in the red zone), that the team has found new ways to win games.  I do think that the offense has to find its form if they want to get to and win the SB.  KC, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia are major challenges.  If the Bills pull it all together, they are capable of beating all of them.  Earlier in the season, I thought Philly was a fluke who piled up wins against an easy schedule.  I don't think that anymore.  They are solid in all phases of the game and are dominating their opponents, even some good ones.  They are for real and will be tough to beat if the Bills meet them in the SB.  Still, if the Bills play at their best and the Eagles play at their best, the Bills come out on top.  If the Eagles play the way they are playing right now, and the Bills play the way they are playing right now, the Eagles probably take it.  The Bills need to find their stride.  Maybe Beasley and Ike Boettger are the missing pieces.

[TN Bills Fan]

I think all the talk of "weapons" this year was pre-mature.  To me it looks like Diggs and a cast of nobodies.  I do recall that Davis was a healthy inactive early last year and McKenzie was almost waived after a kick return fumble.  Did they really think those two guys would now be starters and lead them to a Super Bowl?  Teams are taking Diggs away and there isn't much reliable.  Also their 3 interior offensive lineman are awful pass blockers.  Morse and Saffold are very good run blockers but get overwhelmed in the pass rush.  Bates does nothing particularly well.  3 players Davis, McKenzie, and Bates who would be backups on good teams are in over their heads.

[st pete gogolak]

17 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

You running with the concussion theory?

I'm not a doctor.  Not buying in to concussion theory.  In another thread someone suggested shoulder sprain.  Again, not a doctor, but statistics indicate SOMETHING happened in the first half of the Packers game. 

[Xwnyer]

35 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

I'm not a doctor.  Not buying in to concussion theory.  In another thread someone suggested shoulder sprain.  Again, not a doctor, but statistics indicate SOMETHING happened in the first half of the Packers game. 

That would make more sense since the issue seems to be lingering