BROCK PURDY: for real or fools gold ?

[Thrivefourfive]

His legs. He gets out of pocket trouble and finds an outlet, and even my god, finds WRs in the corner of the the endzone with accuracy. He threw some bad location balls in the first half and Seattle really had a chance to pick a FEW… but they didn’t. 
 

He’s not a Brees pocket passer, and his small frame will get him hurt in the scramble game. He’s listed at 220, combine 212, and 4.84 40yd. He looks light. He might be faster with the ball in his hands than on a dash — he’s quick, seems to think quickly. But I think he doesn’t last. SF’s history of QB controversies over the past DECADE continues.. that’s my take 

[Dr.Sack]

He reminds me of many young QBs who landed in great situations. Great HC, great WRs, TE, RB, OL, loaded D. It will take solid team performance to beat the ’22 49ers. 

[Beck Water]

21 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

He has out performed all other SF QBs in that system.  Is it because of CMC?  In CMC's 5 games on the 49ers before Purdy, they averaged 25 PPG.  In the 7 games they played together, they scored 40 PPG

 

Too many factors in that - like who did they play in both those stretches?  And what was the defense like?

 

Chiefs (2) Rams (0)  Chargers (1) Cardinals (2)  Saints (2)

Dolphins (game where Purdy came in) (4)

Bucs (3) Seahawks (1) Washington (2)  Raiders (2)  Cardinals (4) playoffs Seahawks (2)

 

What's the number in paranthesis?  Hint: it's not an offensive statistic, but it influences offensive points scored.

 

By the way, not critical to the discussion, but I can't reproduce your averages. 

The games with Purdy (counting the Dolphins) 33 35 21 37 37 38 41 - that can not average 40 ppg.  Try 34.5 is the average.

Games with CMC and without Purdy 23 31 22 38 13 - average is correct, but looking at it as a stats geek, I would say that's an average impacted by one outlier.  Just me. 

 

So now we're talking about the difference between 34.5 and 28.5, and the difference between 1.4 and 2.6 of whatever that number in parenthesis is....

 

[LabattBlue]

I like how people throw the term “game manager” around, as in, “anyone can do that”. 

[PromoTheRobot]

He looked pretty real to me. It's not like he was handing the ball off and throwing screens. He was flinging the rock quite effectively. He didn't look like a QB the coach was worried about.

[Mr. WEO]

29 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Too many factors in that - like who did they play in both those stretches?  And what was the defense like?

 

Chiefs (2) Rams (0)  Chargers (1) Cardinals (2)  Saints (2)

Dolphins (game where Purdy came in) (4)

Bucs (3) Seahawks (1) Washington (2)  Raiders (2)  Cardinals (4) playoffs Seahawks (2)

 

What's the number in paranthesis?  Hint: it's not an offensive statistic, but it influences offensive points scored.

 

By the way, not critical to the discussion, but I can't reproduce your averages. 

The games with Purdy (counting the Dolphins) 33 35 21 37 37 38 41 - that can not average 40 ppg.  Try 34.5 is the average.

Games with CMC and without Purdy 23 31 22 38 13 - average is correct, but looking at it as a stats geek, I would say that's an average impacted by one outlier.  Just me. 

 

So now we're talking about the difference between 34.5 and 28.5, and the difference between 1.4 and 2.6 of whatever that number in parenthesis is....

 

 

 

Oops! was thumb typing in the subway between stops.  Correct with the 34.6 (i used 6 instead of 7 as the denominator).   But if we are dropping the outlier (for the you, the stat geek), let's also drop that 21 to get an average of 36.8   So now its a difference of 36.8 vs 28.5.

 

 

As for the D's they faced....as they say, they play who they played.  And they scored (adjusted) 30% more when Purdy took over.

[Freddie's Dead]

Dammit Josh.

[LeGOATski]

6 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Makes sense, if Fred Warner played for the Seahawks.

Yeah, I was thinking 9ers

 

[Simon]

On 1/15/2023 at 11:38 AM, Beck Water said:

 

Did they?  I'm not sure.  There are too many other factors that almost coincide.

 

I think Brock Purdy looks good, don't get me wrong.  

 

fwiw, yesterday was the exact game I was thinking of down the road when I said the 49ers became a more dangerous team when Purdy stepped on the field.

Under that heavy Cowboys pass rush, Garoppolo would have gone wide-eyed, fallen apart like a Robert Hall suit and started throwing up prayers to save his own ass.

Purdy just kept staying focused with his eyes downfield, protecting the ball, putting it where it needed to go, converting some key 3rd downs and calmly making his way to the NFC Championship game.

He's not going to blow anybody away with 40 yrd lasers and superman plays, but he'll almost always be in control of his offense no matter what's going on around him.

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

fwiw, yesterday was the exact game I was thinking of down the road when I said the 49ers became a more dangerous team when Purdy stepped on the field.

Under that heavy Cowboys pass rush, Garoppolo would have gone wide-eyed, fallen apart like a Robert Hall suit and started throwing up prayers to save his own ass.

Purdy just kept staying focused with his eyes downfield, protecting the ball, putting it where it needed to go, converting some key 3rd downs and calmly making his way to the NFC Championship game.

He's not going to blow anybody away with 40 yrd lasers and superman plays, but he'll almost always be in control of his offense no matter what's going on around him.

 

So you think he's the Real Deal?  What do you think the 49ers do with Lance then?

[Simon]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

So you think he's the Real Deal?  What do you think the 49ers do with Lance then?

 

He might be the right guy at the right time; I just think he's a crucial improvement over what they would have been putting out there in the playoffs.

I give Lance another shot to win the job next season and hope he figures it out. His trade value isn't going ot get any lower so no point in moving on too early.

[PetermansRedemption]

Will be interesting to see if they try to go back to Lance, who was super unimpressive IMO. I can’t see how you bench Purdy after what he’s done for you. 

[Boatdrinks]

Could be for real , or just on an incredible run that ends in a Super Bowl title before drifting into obscurity. Both have happened in the league before.