THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - No Bills on Sunday Afternoon, No Problem

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Yup. The issue for them is that Belichick the coach is cuckolded by Belichick the GM.

Yes. Drafting 30th every year really doesn't lend itself well to creating a stream of franchise Qbs.  As recently as 1 week ago, 10% of all starting QBs in the NFL were drafted by Bellichek (brisset, jimmy g, mac jones)

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Yes. Drafting 30th every year really doesn't lend itself well to creating a stream of franchise Qbs.  As recently as 1 week ago, 10% of all starting QBs in the NFL were drafted by Bellichek (brisset, jimmy g, mac jones)

 

Add Brady to that list, so 12.5%.

 

And all of them are milktoast now, including Brady.

 

The bigger issue is he just isn't drafting very many really good players...way too many 1st and 2nd round picks that end up being nothing players.

 

 

 

[Utah John]

2 hours ago, chris heff said:

I went back and watched last two minutes of Bills game, Patriots kick a field goal and then with three timeouts let the Bills run out the clock. Belichick’s reasoning was he didn’t want to risk injury to Mac Jones. At very least a strange decision. Having a mediocre second year QB with no offensive coordinator is idiotic. I think Belichick is done.

No real GM, no real OC, and a DC who happens to be his son, who'd have guessed that guy would be their best choice.  Also no QB, no good WRs.  They have a pretty good defense and a strong RB, that's it.

The Bills are returning to the point where they're a complete team.  With the injuries to White, Hyde, and Poyer, they were NOT complete.  Too many rookies and subs playing the defensive backfield.  And when Milano or Edmunds was out, the D was just average at best.

 

Now that White seems to be back and Poyer is back and Milano and Edmunds are back, the nearly-complete Bills team is on display.  If that team carries on, they're once again the best team in the league.  But the same is true for other top teams.  Most of them are playing subs at critical spots.  So much depends on injuries and, this year, on regular old illnesses that are too severe to let a guy practice or play.  I don't remember that happening since the year Bruce Smith had to miss the playoff game against the Steelers due to the flu.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

59 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Add Brady to that list, so 12.5%.

 

And all of them are milktoast now, including Brady.

 

The bigger issue is he just isn't drafting very many really good players...way too many 1st and 2nd round picks that end up being nothing players.

 

 

 

 

2020 they draft 2 TE's - literally every other TE in that draft has put up numbers.  They then spend more on TEs in free agency in 2021 and cut both players.  Not exactly building a ton of depth there.  

 

2018 - Michel in the first.

2019 - Harry in the first over Samuel/Brown/Metcalf

 

I swear sometimes he does it to be smarter than everyone. Like i knew about cole strange and you didn't! 

[Shaw66]

46 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Add Brady to that list, so 12.5%.

 

And all of them are milktoast now, including Brady.

 

The bigger issue is he just isn't drafting very many really good players...way too many 1st and 2nd round picks that end up being nothing players.

 

 

 

I'm a big Belichick fan, but I don't enough to even try to defend how player personnel has worked within the organization.  

 

I do think, however, that drafting at the bottom of the first round for so long is likely to leave a team in the situation the Pats are in now.  It's pretty clear that to be a really good team, you need some superior talent leading your lineup.   As many as a half dozen guys, and it's .  almost a given that one of them has to be a QB.  With the Bills, you have Allen, Diggs, White, Miller, and then a collection of guys who I'd put just below stud level - Poyer, Hyde, Edmunds, Oliver, Dawkins.  (Looking at it, it's obvious how the offense has been neglected.)  

 

Getting a stud-level occasionally happens by accident (like Brady), but most of the time it happens by having a draft pick in the top ten.   At the bottom of the first round, if you draft well, you will miss sometimes, and sometimes you'll get an Edmunds, an Oliver, or a Dawkins.  You can't count on getting a White - from today's perspective, he's a guy who should have gone much earlier than he did.   

 

When you draft at the bottom of the first round for as long as the Patriots did, you simply are going to have great difficulty coming up with the true stud players you need to threaten opponents.   You have trouble getting a Diggs or a Justin Jefferson, you certainly have trouble getting a QB, you have trouble getting a top offensive lineman or a stud edge guy.   They always go before you draft.  

 

Belichick won by having a team full of really well-coached role players, guys really committed to excellence and hard-nosed football.  But a team full of guys like that can't go very far in the modern NFL without some real studs leading the team, particularly a QB.  Belichick hasn't had many opportunities to get those studs - he's had to count on some guys developing (like White developed for the Bills), and that hasn't happened. 

 

He certainly hasn't helped himself by surrounding himself with "his" people, but in some ways, he's a victim of his own success.   He got lucky with Brady, and he's had his collection of studs, like Wilfork and one or another stud shut-down corner.  Working in his organization has not been a stepping stone to success.  (Actually, Daboll is looking like the most successful guy in his coaching tree, and it's interesting to consider whether Belichick or McDermott gets that credit.)  Hard to imagine any up and coming GM candidate wanting to work in that organization - subject to both Belichick's quirks and Kraft's.     

 

End of the day, Belichick was exactly the right coach with exactly the right quarterback, and he had an unbelievably long run. His creativity resulted in sustaining his offense for a long time with a truly odd couple - Gronk and Edelman.  Still, the leveling effect of the draft caught up with him, like it catches up with everyone.   He needs to get himself back into the top 10 in the draft for a few years to reload, but he's too good a coach for things to come undone to that extent, and anyway, when he gets down to that level, Kraft will move on.  

 

As much as the Patriots are always a threat when you play them, I think we've seen the end of Belichick's glory days.  

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Good review Shaw. I think Belichick is a very good coach but I would not call him a genius. He's 78-83 without Brady. The only thing Jefferson and Chase have on Diggs is youth. I would argue he runs the best route tree in the NFL. I agree the Jets are going to be a problem. Their defense will keep them in games. Alot very good teams emerging. Bills need to stay healthy. 

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm a big Belichick fan, but I don't enough to even try to defend how player personnel has worked within the organization.  

 

I do think, however, that drafting at the bottom of the first round for so long is likely to leave a team in the situation the Pats are in now.  It's pretty clear that to be a really good team, you need some superior talent leading your lineup.   As many as a half dozen guys, and it's .  almost a given that one of them has to be a QB.  With the Bills, you have Allen, Diggs, White, Miller, and then a collection of guys who I'd put just below stud level - Poyer, Hyde, Edmunds, Oliver, Dawkins.  (Looking at it, it's obvious how the offense has been neglected.)  

 

Getting a stud-level occasionally happens by accident (like Brady), but most of the time it happens by having a draft pick in the top ten.   At the bottom of the first round, if you draft well, you will miss sometimes, and sometimes you'll get an Edmunds, an Oliver, or a Dawkins.  You can't count on getting a White - from today's perspective, he's a guy who should have gone much earlier than he did.   

 

When you draft at the bottom of the first round for as long as the Patriots did, you simply are going to have great difficulty coming up with the true stud players you need to threaten opponents.   You have trouble getting a Diggs or a Justin Jefferson, you certainly have trouble getting a QB, you have trouble getting a top offensive lineman or a stud edge guy.   They always go before you draft.  

 

Belichick won by having a team full of really well-coached role players, guys really committed to excellence and hard-nosed football.  But a team full of guys like that can't go very far in the modern NFL without some real studs leading the team, particularly a QB.  Belichick hasn't had many opportunities to get those studs - he's had to count on some guys developing (like White developed for the Bills), and that hasn't happened. 

 

He certainly hasn't helped himself by surrounding himself with "his" people, but in some ways, he's a victim of his own success.   He got lucky with Brady, and he's had his collection of studs, like Wilfork and one or another stud shut-down corner.  Working in his organization has not been a stepping stone to success.  (Actually, Daboll is looking like the most successful guy in his coaching tree, and it's interesting to consider whether Belichick or McDermott gets that credit.)  Hard to imagine any up and coming GM candidate wanting to work in that organization - subject to both Belichick's quirks and Kraft's.     

 

End of the day, Belichick was exactly the right coach with exactly the right quarterback, and he had an unbelievably long run. His creativity resulted in sustaining his offense for a long time with a truly odd couple - Gronk and Edelman.  Still, the leveling effect of the draft caught up with him, like it catches up with everyone.   He needs to get himself back into the top 10 in the draft for a few years to reload, but he's too good a coach for things to come undone to that extent, and anyway, when he gets down to that level, Kraft will move on.  

 

As much as the Patriots are always a threat when you play them, I think we've seen the end of Belichick's glory days.  

 

 

To a point I will agree, but he also hasn't helped himself by taking nothing players when multiple other good players at their positions were drafted after them meaning NE could have simply chosen them instead which mitigates this point.  

 

Example?  He drafted N'Keal Harry at pick 32, the 2nd WR taken in that draft after Hollywood Brown at 25.  Harry has 740 total yards(49 rushing/691 receiving) since being drafted. This means he had the following players available:

• Deebo Samuel(taken 36th) (757-3167=3924 total yards)
• AJ Brown(taken 51st) (246-3945=4091 total yards)
• DK Metcalf(taken 64th) (283-3968=4251 total yards)
• Diontae Johnson(taken 66th) (315-3329=3644 total yards)
• Terry McLaurin(taken 76th) (284-4035=4319 total yards)
• Hunter Renfrow(taken 149th) (229-2491=2720 total yards)
• Darius Slayton(taken 171st) (157-2396=2553 total yards)

 

He had the chance to draft 3 players with over 4K yards, Samuel who might be the most dynamic dual threat in the NFL with almost 4K yards, Johnson who even tho he drops a lot of passes is a very good player and makes some crazy catches, and 2 other really good players in Renfrow and Slayton...and those numbers are with Renfrow only appearing in 6 games this year due to injury and Slayton being a player that played in bad Giants offenses for a few years.  

 

Could likely go down the list of many players he chose that have sucked and do the same thing...lots of other good options where he picked and he just picked wrong.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

To a point I will agree, but he also hasn't helped himself by taking nothing players when multiple other good players at their positions were drafted after them meaning NE could have simply chosen them instead which mitigates this point.  

 

Example?  He drafted N'Keal Harry at pick 32, the 2nd WR taken in that draft after Hollywood Brown at 25.  Harry has 740 total yards(49 rushing/691 receiving) since being drafted. This means he had the following players available:

• Deebo Samuel(taken 36th) (757-3167=3924 total yards)
• AJ Brown(taken 51st) (246-3945=4091 total yards)
• DK Metcalf(taken 64th) (283-3968=4251 total yards)
• Diontae Johnson(taken 66th) (315-3329=3644 total yards)
• Terry McLaurin(taken 76th) (284-4035=4319 total yards)
• Hunter Renfrow(taken 149th) (229-2491=2720 total yards)
• Darius Slayton(taken 171st) (157-2396=2553 total yards)

 

He had the chance to draft 3 players with over 4K yards, Samuel who might be the most dynamic dual threat in the NFL with almost 4K yards, Johnson who even tho he drops a lot of passes is a very good player and makes some crazy catches, and 2 other really good players in Renfrow and Slayton...and those numbers are with Renfrow only appearing in 6 games this year due to injury and Slayton being a player that played in bad Giants offenses for a few years.  

 

Could likely go down the list of many players he chose that have sucked and do the same thing...lots of other good options where he picked and he just picked wrong.

But I think the problem is that you need some true stud players, and those guys you've named aren't those guys.   They aren't Wilfork or Brady or Jefferson or that 88 guy for the Cowboys or a top three running back or a shut-down corner.   Yes, people can argue all day about the guys he missed, but those guys he missed (that everyone misses) are nice guys to have but not cornerstones for your franchise.   The cornerstones are in the top 10, along with guys who come later who turn out to be more than anyone thought, like Cooper Kupp.   So, yeah, he could have better guys than he has in the just-below-stud category, but he wouldn't be winning a lot more games if he had them.   He needs a QB, he needs a stud receiver or corner or both, and it's hard to find those guys where he's drafted year after year.  

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

But I think the problem is that you need some true stud players, and those guys you've named aren't those guys.   They aren't Wilfork or Brady or Jefferson or that 88 guy for the Cowboys or a top three running back or a shut-down corner.   Yes, people can argue all day about the guys he missed, but those guys he missed (that everyone misses) are nice guys to have but not cornerstones for your franchise.   The cornerstones are in the top 10, along with guys who come later who turn out to be more than anyone thought, like Cooper Kupp.   So, yeah, he could have better guys than he has in the just-below-stud category, but he wouldn't be winning a lot more games if he had them.   He needs a QB, he needs a stud receiver or corner or both, and it's hard to find those guys where he's drafted year after year.  

 

Do you think Mac Jones wouldn't look helpless a lot of times if he had Deebo Samuel there instead of Jakobi Meyer?  They might not be top 10 players, but they are certainly top 30 players(minus Renfrow and Slayton), and far better than Harry is... so bad he had to be traded before his rookie contract was up.  

Edited December 5, 2022 by Big Turk

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Do you think Mac Jones wouldn't look helpless a lot of times if he had Deebo Samuel there instead of Jakobi Meyer?  They might not be top 10 players, but they are certainly top 30 players(minus Renfrow and Slayton), and far better than Harry is... so bad he had to be traded before his rookie contract was up.  

Yeah, he'd look less helpless.   They'd clearly be better if they'd had better success late in the first round and in the second round.  But so would every team, because it's very unusual to have big success with those picks all the time.   Look at Elam and Cook, and Boogie, and etc., etc.  It's just very hard to find the true leaders of you franchise at that point in the draft.   

 

Maybe Mac Jones will grow into a big success in the NFL and just needs time.   But assuming he doesn't, then the question is whether Belichick screwed up the search for a QB post-Brady.   I don't know what opportunities he's missed, but it isn't immediately obvious that he blew it.  Did he have a shot at Jalen Hurts?   That would be on Belichick.  

[Logic]

Thanks as always for the post.

Yesterday was the most fun I've had watching football during a non-Bills Sunday.

Jets-Vikings, Chiefs-Bengals, and Dolphins-49ers were all great games on their own, but were even more interesting because of the playoff seeding ramifications they had on the Bills.

 

I couldn't settle on an early window game, so for the first time ever, I watched NFL Red Zone for the whole three hours. It was excellent! commercial-free football, jumping around from game to game, whichever had the most exciting action at any given moment. The completist part of me missed the "chess match" aspect of watching one game from start to finish. But that was more than made up for by the ability to compare and contrast the different styles, strengths and weakness of each team as Scott Hanson jumped from game to game, and by the fact that I didn't have to sit through any commercials. Just constant, non-stop football. I'm not sure what took me so long to come around to the Red Zone channel, but boy was it fun!

The Chiefs, as pointed out on social media today, are 1-5 in their last six games against the Bills and Bengals -- and are 13 seconds away from being 0-6 in those games. The Chiefs are still talked about as the class of the AFC by almost everyone, so I found that to be a pretty interesting fact.

The Dolphins look like a different team when they go against a top 16 defense. Tua was totally off yesterday. All QBs have off days. We saw our own QB have a series of them just this season. Whatever it was about going against the 49ers, Tua was missing gimme throws left and right. It was downright bizarre how inaccurate he was.

Bills seem to be exiting their slump at just the right moment. Win five winnable (not easy by any means, but all winnable) games and they get a bye and home field. An exciting month of December football ahead.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, he'd look less helpless.   They'd clearly be better if they'd had better success late in the first round and in the second round.  But so would every team, because it's very unusual to have big success with those picks all the time.   Look at Elam and Cook, and Boogie, and etc., etc.  It's just very hard to find the true leaders of you franchise at that point in the draft.   

 

Maybe Mac Jones will grow into a big success in the NFL and just needs time.   But assuming he doesn't, then the question is whether Belichick screwed up the search for a QB post-Brady.   I don't know what opportunities he's missed, but it isn't immediately obvious that he blew it.  Did he have a shot at Jalen Hurts?   That would be on Belichick.  

 

His unwillingness to package picks and trade up is what likely hurt him.  He enjoys trading down and accumulating picks, but when you need a franchise QB, sometimes you have to aggressively go get him....like Beane did.

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Belichick’s poor talent acquisition has yielded a bottom-5 roster the last three years, ironically masked by his own good coaching.  You can’t demand vertical integration and then trot out that offense and keep your job.

 

Can Krafty fire the GM but not the coach?

[Shaw66]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

His unwillingness to package picks and trade up is what likely hurt him.  He enjoys trading down and accumulating picks, but when you need a franchise QB, sometimes you have to aggressively go get him....like Beane did.

Yeah, he's big into trading down, and that's a good strategy when you have your studs, because the object then is to surround the studs with as many quality football players you can, so those second-and third-round guys are really valuable.   

 

But as we've seen with the Bills, it's really hard to have enough ammunition to trade up into the top 10, unless you're willing to give up future #1 picks.   Beane isn't trading up into the top 10 from #28, and Belichick didn't, either.   And Belichick hasn't been willing to go into total rebuild mode by trading his best talent for future picks that he then could package.    

 

We can say whatever we want, and there's plenty of what-ifs, but I think at the end of the day the draft and the salary cap will not let you keep your team on top forever.   Sooner or later, you're trying to make Cam Newton work at quarterback.   

[inthebuff]

Thanks, @Shaw66.  I thoroughly enjoy The Rockpile Review.

 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, he's big into trading down, and that's a good strategy when you have your studs, because the object then is to surround the studs with as many quality football players you can, so those second-and third-round guys are really valuable.   

 

But as we've seen with the Bills, it's really hard to have enough ammunition to trade up into the top 10, unless you're willing to give up future #1 picks.   Beane isn't trading up into the top 10 from #28, and Belichick didn't, either.   And Belichick hasn't been willing to go into total rebuild mode by trading his best talent for future picks that he then could package.    

 

We can say whatever we want, and there's plenty of what-ifs, but I think at the end of the day the draft and the salary cap will not let you keep your team on top forever.   Sooner or later, you're trying to make Cam Newton work at quarterback.   

 

Beane's master stroke was making multiple trades to get from 21 into the top 10...and it started before the draft by Trading Cordy Glenn and our first to Cincy to get to 12. Then using multiple 2nd round picks to get from 12 to 7.  

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, he's big into trading down, and that's a good strategy when you have your studs, because the object then is to surround the studs with as many quality football players you can, so those second-and third-round guys are really valuable.   

 

But as we've seen with the Bills, it's really hard to have enough ammunition to trade up into the top 10, unless you're willing to give up future #1 picks.   Beane isn't trading up into the top 10 from #28, and Belichick didn't, either.   And Belichick hasn't been willing to go into total rebuild mode by trading his best talent for future picks that he then could package.    

 

We can say whatever we want, and there's plenty of what-ifs, but I think at the end of the day the draft and the salary cap will not let you keep your team on top forever.   Sooner or later, you're trying to make Cam Newton work at quarterback.   

 

I think even before the salary cap era this was a problem and it was caused by teams holding onto their stars for a year or two too long instead of replacing them with young players.

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Beane's master stroke was making multiple trades to get from 21 into the top 10...and it started before the draft by Trading Cordy Glenn and our first to Cincy to get to 12. Then using multiple 2nd round picks to get from 12 to 7.  

 

I think even before the salary cap era this was a problem and it was caused by teams holding onto their stars for a year or two too long instead of replacing them with young players.

I agree about both points.   I thought it was really interesting, however, that Beane essentially admitted that even with all his maneuvering, he wasn't in a position to outbid the Jets to get to the third pick overall.    Belichick hasn't had as much trade ammunition as even Beane had, because he hasn't had a good first round pick in about ten years.   It's just tough to maintain quality personnel without picks in the top third of the first and second rounds.  

[Shaw66]

41 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

His unwillingness to package picks and trade up is what likely hurt him.  He enjoys trading down and accumulating picks, but when you need a franchise QB, sometimes you have to aggressively go get him....like Beane did.

And there's another thing about packaging picks.   Beane and McDermott told their own that they were going to blow up the roster, and in four or five years the team was going to be good.   Then they traded Cordy and all kinds of picks and unloaded a lot of people and ate dead cap space.   

 

If Belichick told Kraft that he thought the way to rebuild was to do a true rebuild, Kraft might agree, Kraft would recognize that Belichick is too old to be the leader of the rebuild.  Declaring a rebuild is the end of Bill's reign in New England. 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

And there's another thing about packaging picks.   Beane and McDermott told their own that they were going to blow up the roster, and in four or five years the team was going to be good.   Then they traded Cordy and all kinds of picks and unloaded a lot of people and ate dead cap space.   

 

If Belichick told Kraft that he thought the way to rebuild was to do a true rebuild, Kraft might agree, Kraft would recognize that Belichick is too old to be the leader of the rebuild.  Declaring a rebuild is the end of Bill's reign in New England. 

 

Belichick's ego won't allow him to do a full rebuild.  He thinks he can coach up scrubs to be all-pro's and his successes on defense with Malcolm Butler and JC Jackson, taking them from UDFA's and turning them into star players(although Butler's star was fleeting), has fueled this.  And to be honest, he is getting a LOT more out of this NE team than most coaches would...they are just devoid of talent in a lot of areas.  They do well against mediocre/bad teams but are exposed badly against good/great ones.  

 

Not unlike so many of the Bills era teams during the drought, but with less overall talent, IMO.

[Saxum]

54 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Beane's master stroke was making multiple trades to get from 21 into the top 10...and it started before the draft by Trading Cordy Glenn and our first to Cincy to get to 12. Then using multiple 2nd round picks to get from 12 to 7.  

 

 

The Cordy Glenn trade was good deal for Bills for he did not even last full remaining three years of contract. He played 19 of 32 possible games and started 18 having concussion last 10 games and one game suspended for discipline.  No bites after Bengals.