Chiefs at Bengals Game thread - 4:25 PM Kickoff

[stevestojan]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Do you seriously not understand this relatively simple calculation?

 

WIN% is just EV basically

 

simple example is 2pt vs PAT: success rate of PAT (1 pt) is 94.1 so EV of a PAT= .941

 

success rate of a 2pt try (2pts) is 49.4% so EV of a 2pt attempt= .988

 

WIN% is just these EVs calculated wrt to down distance and time left in game over the recorded logs of NFL plays in same circumstances

This is painful watching you try to explain this. You’re doing god’s work, my friend. 

[Beck Water]

If only Boyd hadn’t dropped that TD

Oh crap gonna be holding against the Bengals

[GoBills808]

FYI anyone can access the 4th down bot if they desire

 

its here

 

https://cloud.r-project.org/web/packages/nfl4th/index.html

[Best Williams Available]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

If only Boyd hadn’t dropped that TD

I want Cincy too but that was an obvs pick so screw em

[Beck Water]

My Goodness!  Burrows makes something happen!

[muppy]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

If only Boyd hadn’t dropped that TD

Oh crap gonna be holding against the Bengals

it's the  woulda coulda shouldas that drive a person to drink Beck. YEP

Edited December 4, 2022 by muppy

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

simple example is 2pt vs PAT: success rate of PAT (1 pt) is 94.1 so EV of a PAT= .941

 

success rate of a 2pt try (2pts) is 49.4% so EV of a 2pt attempt= .988

 

So... a team should always go for 2 points no matter what? I don't buy that.

 

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

WIN% is just these EVs calculated wrt to down distance and time left in game over the recorded logs of NFL plays in same circumstances

 

Except the bot doesn't actually know the conversion percentage on that play against that defense in that 4th and short situation. That's where the whole thing falls apart. You can't just use recorded logs of other matchups against other teams and act like that number is gospel.

 

I get what the bot is trying to do but it's method doesn't pass basic scrutiny. It's just a thing the entire internet has decided to believe in for no reason.

[MasterStrategist]

Cincy hopefully ties it up this drive...

 

Eventually that Mahomes luck will fade this game and Bengals will get a couple bounce their way

[No_Matter_What]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The long run of what? A team might have one or two of those decisions per game.

Happy, if you need to ask this question then I am sorry you don't understand the basics of decision making.

 

You make the decision which has higher EV. Unless the data used by twitter account which @GoBills808 quoted are completely wrong (which I really doubt), it's a no-brainer decision to go for it. And I think it's fairly obvious even without maths.

 

But I rest my case here, it's fine if you believe otherwise.

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[GoBills808]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

So... a team should always go for 2 points no matter what? I don't buy that.

 

 

Except the bot doesn't actually know the conversion percentage on that play against that defense in that 4th and short situation. That's where the whole thing falls apart. You can't just use recorded logs of other matchups against other teams and act like that number is gospel.

 

I get what the bot is trying to do but it's method doesn't pass basic scrutiny. It's just a thing the entire internet has decided to believe in for no reason.

This is all results oriented thinking

 

it's a very common way of looking at outcomes but leads to inefficient decision making

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Best Williams Available said:

I want Cincy too but that was an obvs pick so screw em

 

??

[Shortchaz]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

This is all results oriented thinking

 

it's a very common way of looking at outcomes but leads to inefficient decision making

Damn son

[Billsatlastin2018]

***** clown… OOB!

[Fallser]

That 3 points the Bungles gave up in the first half is going to haunt them. 

[UKBillFan]

4 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Cincy hopefully ties it up this drive...

 

Eventually that Mahomes luck will fade this game and Bengals will get a couple bounce their way

 

We're still waiting for a fumble to bounce our way and we've gone through week thirteen.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Missed opportunities hurting the Bengals 

[Billsatlastin2018]

Another useless FG!

[Real McClappy]

These FG's are not going to get it done for Cincy. 

[Process]

I know it wasnt a catch but Chase/Higgins combo is not fair. 

 

Bengals are blowing this

[Billsatlastin2018]

There you go…

 

0 for 3 last Red Zone drives!

 

Spells an L against Mahomes.

 

Neither of these teams are coming through for the Bills,today!