Chiefs at Bengals Game thread - 4:25 PM Kickoff

[Best Williams Available]

Ridiculous these random guys make plays all the time

[No_Matter_What]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You can't possibly prove that that was the correct decision. The simple answer is that they are now tied instead of winning by 3. Doesn't look either team is going to run away with this one. Those points matter.

I am not arguing about this specific decision.

 

But man cmon. You can't say a decision is wrong just because the result is. What matters is what nets more points in the long run.

[Billsatlastin2018]

Can ANY of these Bungles ever get a jump ball?

[Buffalo Boy]

Just now, stevestojan said:

Romo has gotten to the point where he’s blowing Mahommes after routine plays. They just did a replay of a run a of the mill short completion and Romo “just look at his eyes.” 
 

 

Yeah!!! He was watching the receiver the whole way🤷‍♂️

[Beck Water]

MVS with the great catch

[Ralonzo]

Hopefully that drop disabuses Cinci of the notion to use Chase as a decoy. If he looks covered, he's open, throw it to him.

[Behindenemylines]

1 minute ago, stevestojan said:

Romo has gotten to the point where he’s blowing Mahommes after routine plays. They just did a replay of a run a of the mill short completion and Romo “just look at his eyes.” 
 

 

Never liked Romo announcing.  Takes the fun out of watching and he more than blows the Rat on every play.  

[Nephilim17]

4 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

Romo has gotten to the point where he’s blowing Mahommes after routine plays. They just did a replay of a run a of the mill short completion and Romo “just look at his eyes.” 
 

 

It's a quarterback driven league and Mahomes has the best start of any QB in history... It's only natural that the announcers are going hype the good QBs in general and Mahomes specifically.

now, I still wanna see him get crushed and lose...

Edited December 4, 2022 by Nephilim17

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Very easy

 

 

Oh the 4th down decision bot. Where can I find the calculations used to come up with those weirdly specific numbers?

 

I also like how even the bot shows that a successful FG equates to better win percentage than a failed go for it. I would take the sure points over the 35% failure chance every single time in that situation. I mean jeez the bot shows a 4% win probability difference between the decisions and you think it's really that easy? I mean I don't inherently just believe these random numbers I'm throwing out there, but even by the bot's own logic it makes sense to take the 3 points.

[stevestojan]

This will be interesting. 

[Beck Water]

Lucky horseshoe sticking halfway out Mahomes butt

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Mahomes channeling Allen there 

[JaCrispy]

Great call by the refs in real time

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

What matters is what nets more points in the long run.

 

The long run of what? A team might have one or two of those decisions per game.

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Very easy

 

 

Doesn’t that show that the win % is higher if you successfully kick a FG than if you fail to convert a go for it?

[WyoAZBillfan]

Could’ve called that either way it looked. Maybe slipping, maybe held.🤷🏼‍♂️ sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Oh the 4th down decision bot. Where can I find the calculations used to come up with those weirdly specific numbers?

 

I also like how even the bot shows that a successful FG equates to better win percentage than a failed go for it. I would take the sure points over the 35% failure chance every single time in that situation. I mean jeez the bot shows a 4% win probability difference between the decisions and you think it's really that easy? I mean I don't inherently just believe these random numbers I'm throwing out there, but even by the bot's own logic it makes sense to take the 3 points.

Do you seriously not understand this relatively simple calculation?

 

WIN% is just EV basically

 

simple example is 2pt vs PAT: success rate of PAT (1 pt) is 94.1 so EV of a PAT= .941

 

success rate of a 2pt try (2pts) is 49.4% so EV of a 2pt attempt= .988

 

WIN% is just these EVs calculated wrt to down distance and time left in game over the recorded logs of NFL plays in same circumstances

[benderbender]

not even a discussion? that’s some bull

[GoBills808]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

Doesn’t that show that the win % is higher if you successfully kick a FG than if you fail to convert a go for it?

Yes that should be obvious

 

[LABILLBACKER]

6 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Never liked Romo announcing.  Takes the fun out of watching and he more than blows the Rat on every play.  

Romo on Mahomes....Charles Davis on the Jets...I thought these clowns were supposed to announce a game impartially?  Takes away from the whole broadcast.