Gabe Davis Ankle ???

[The Wiz]

33 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Deeper depth of target and higher yards per catch means fewer receptions. Those two are not exclusive. 

I'll bet someone is going to throw a stat line that says otherwise.  I'll also bet that receiver is in the top 32 for targets and yards, or an anomaly of what has been the going rate for a #2 receiver. 

Edited December 4, 2022 by The Wiz

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

I'll bet someone is going to throw a stat line that says otherwise.  I'll also bet that receiver is in the top 32 for targets and yards. 

 

Using a single exception does not make that the norm. That's why you are going to say one versus 20 of them.

[Dr.Sack]

Gabe put on 10-15 lbs of muscle this offseason. It’s obvious it hasn’t hindered his straight line speed, but his change of direction / fluidity in and out of breaks seems a bit dull. Case in point recall Diggs TD catch, Herbstreit pointed out that Davis ran a similar route later in the end zone and it appeared the to me the route wasn’t as sharp in terms of the cut, Davis rounded his route. That may indicate his ankle is still bum or his ability to change direction is simply not as good at this point in his career as Diggs. 

[Bferra13]

7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Valid points. I mean Davis is squarely in the 20th-40th range in terms of most WR stats this year and is on pace for 942 yards and 8-9 TDs. Already has a career high in yards. 

 

If there are 32 #1 WRs statistically, #2 WRs would fall between 33-64 logically. He is well within that range. 

 

If people are disappointed in him, it largely is because they had unrealistic expectations to begin with. Only so many balls to go around.

 

Probably Madden related...that game has caused more ridiculous and unrealistic expectations over the last few decades than anything else.

Yeah Madden sucks. But it's not Madden it's fantasy football. Gabe is the regular whipping boy around here, but I definitely still believe in him. 

[The Wiz]

30 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Using a single exception does not make that the norm. That's why you are going to say one versus 20 of them.

I know that. I'm agreeing with you on the subject but you know someone will pull it out and present it like it's the norm. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

Gabe put on 10-15 lbs of muscle this offseason. It’s obvious it hasn’t hindered his straight line speed, but his change of direction / fluidity in and out of breaks seems a bit dull. Case in point recall Diggs TD catch, Herbstreit pointed out that Davis ran a similar route later in the end zone and it appeared the to me the route wasn’t as sharp in terms of the cut, Davis rounded his route. That may indicate his ankle is still bum or his ability to change direction is simply not as good at this point in his career as Diggs. 

 

I don't think it has to do with putting on some muscle because 1) Diggs did as well 2) Davis was running crisp routes at the start of the season

 

No one has as crisp routes as Diggs, but Davis can break ankles.  Remember the KC playoff game last season.

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think it has to do with putting on some muscle because 1) Diggs did as well 2) Davis was running crisp routes at the start of the season

 

No one has as crisp routes as Diggs, but Davis can break ankles.  Remember the KC playoff game last season.

Diggs and Davis gain separation differently 

 

even when they make people fall over they are doing it in different nuanced ways 

 

Diggs is like a basketball player at the LoS… shifty , basketball like moves to get separation at the line and blending an ability to run routes at different speeds with sudden cuts 

 

Davis … even when he is making corners fall over … is much more physical… he is trying to use physicality to stem and stack a corner on a vertical route  … get the corner on his heels with his physicality and then get vertical leverage by stacking … it’s a technique to get open vertically 

 

 

even here where he makes Hughes fall… Davis is attacking him at the top of the route putting him on his heels… putting pressure on the corner 

 

The corner has outside leverage so he attacks it physically… And that gives him the ability to get on top of him

Edited December 4, 2022 by Buffalo716

[BillsVet]

6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

You realize that he has played in 11 games this year and has already passed his career high in yards, right?

 

He also already has the same amount of receptions his last two years in 5 less games. 

 

Take away the 99 yrd td and he's still on pace for 700+ yards receiving.

 

Raw numbers don't tell the story or factor in changing variables.  As in, he's been a WR3 or less in his rookie and 2nd years, competing for targets in that role with Beasley, Brown, Sanders, etc.  Of course this season as a WR2 he'll have better numbers

 

The catch rate has dropped to 52% of targets from 55-56% in 2020 and 2021.  To put that into perspective, among WR/TE with 35 or more receptions, Davis is 78th out of 78 in the league while catching passes from Josh Allen and having Diggs get closer coverage.

 

He was set up to succeed and hasn't been the guy they expected when they decided to do essentially nothing at outside WR this off-season. 

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Deeper depth of target and higher yards per catch means fewer receptions. Those two are not exclusive. 

 

I'm not entirely sure what point you're trying to make here.  I wasn't trying to say they were "exclusive"?

 

Point was made that Gabe Davis is actually doing pretty well in terms of yards per game, in fact he's in the top-32 WR, #27, so what more do Bills fans want out of the guy?

 

Counter point: fans feel more consistency is needed from the #2.  Higher catch %, fewer drops, and more consistent production game to game vs. 1 game with 171 yds and 6 games with <40 yds.  You can see some of that in the stats by watching the top receiver list re-shuffle when sorted by receptions vs yards per game.

 

Yes of course, if he had those things he'd have even higher yards per game, and that would be a Good Thing.

 

Edit: and I feel I should point out that IMO, Gabe Davis is close to this.  We're not talking about dozens of plays, we're talking about maybe 1 more catch in 3-4 games.  I also feel that Josh plays a part in this, by consistently targeting Gabe on high degree of difficulty receptions, when he's in traffic or closely covered or lower percentage deep throws.  I don't hold Gabe responsible for making the "oooohs" and "aaaaahs" plays that of course we'd like to see, but they would be genuinely top level receptions if he hauled them in.  But he 's had a handful of catchable balls that the #2 WR on a top team really needs to secure.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Beck Water

[Big Turk]

9 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not entirely sure what point you're trying to make here.  I wasn't trying to say they were "exclusive"?

 

Point was made that Gabe Davis is actually doing pretty well in terms of yards per game, in fact he's in the top-32 WR, #27, so what more do Bills fans want out of the guy?

 

Counter point: fans feel more consistency is needed from the #2.  Higher catch %, fewer drops, and more consistent production game to game vs. 1 game with 171 yds and 6 games with <40 yds.  You can see some of that in the stats by watching the top receiver list re-shuffle when sorted by receptions vs yards per game.

 

Yes of course, if he had those things he'd have even higher yards per game, and that would be a Good Thing.

 

Edit: and I feel I should point out that IMO, Gabe Davis is close to this.  We're not talking about dozens of plays, we're talking about maybe 1 more catch in 3-4 games.  I also feel that Josh plays a part in this, by consistently targeting Gabe on high degree of difficulty receptions, when he's in traffic or closely covered or lower percentage deep throws.  I don't hold Gabe responsible for making the "oooohs" and "aaaaahs" plays that of course we'd like to see, but they would be genuinely top level receptions if he hauled them in.  But he 's had a handful of catchable balls that the #2 WR on a top team really needs to secure.

 

Typically when a WR is a high YPC guy, it means his usage is on deeper routes, which typically have lower completion rates. Davis was that for much of the first half of the year but now seems to be running shorter routes more frequently... perhaps dictated by coverage or by protection(or lack there of).

 

That was the main thing I was trying to say with that. It probably didn't get worded properly.

 

I think in some games Davis is less of a focal point and in other games, more of a focal point. 

 

Seems like this is fairly common as the other 4 #2 WRs that are ahead of him in terms of YPG all have between 18-22% of their yardage totals from a single game.

 

Agreed tho...I am not saying there isn't room for improvement, there certainly is. For as good as he does catching with his hands, it seems his drops many times are when he lets it get to his body. The comebacks he run normally aren't as clean as you'd like...possibly because he doesn't truly scare a defender with speed going deep so they don't give as much cushion...John Brown used to be WIDE open on those comebacks because DBs had to respect his deep speed.

 

I think he is a hard worker that is going to probably continue to improve. The question is going to be whether the Bills want to sink the kind of money into a #2 WR that it would take to keep him. I think it's going to be tough to really justify, tbh.

 

Similar to Robert Woods, he is going to get paid by someone...probably won't be the Bills.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Big Turk

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Raw numbers don't tell the story or factor in changing variables.  As in, he's been a WR3 or less in his rookie and 2nd years, competing for targets in that role with Beasley, Brown, Sanders, etc.  Of course this season as a WR2 he'll have better numbers

 

The catch rate has dropped to 52% of targets from 55-56% in 2020 and 2021.  To put that into perspective, among WR/TE with 35 or more receptions, Davis is 78th out of 78 in the league while catching passes from Josh Allen and having Diggs get closer coverage.

 

He was set up to succeed and hasn't been the guy they expected when they decided to do essentially nothing at outside WR this off-season. 

 

So the Bills expected more than being a top 30 WR in YPG? 

 

 

[Robert Paulson]

only one ball to go around

 

he has to work on his hands a bit

 

ankle is bothering him

 

let's switch back to whipping Knox and jumping on Hines for a few weeks. we can come back to Davis later in the year

 

seriously- team is 9-3 and the 3 losses  were from heat exhaustion, beat ourselves in NJ when Josh was semi concussed/hurt elbow and i still don't know what happened against Minnesota.

 

this is special-enjoy it

[Beck Water]

54 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Typically when a WR is a high YPC guy, it means his usage is on deeper routes, which typically have lower completion rates. Davis was that for much of the first half of the year but now seems to be running shorter routes more frequently... perhaps dictated by coverage or by protection(or lack there of).

 

That was the main thing I was trying to say with that. It probably didn't get worded properly.

 

I think in some games Davis is less of a focal point and in other games, more of a focal point. 

 

Seems like this is fairly common as the other 4 #2 WRs that are ahead of him in terms of YPG all have between 18-22% of their yardage totals from a single game.

 

Agreed tho...I am not saying there isn't room for improvement, there certainly is. For as good as he does catching with his hands, it seems his drops many times are when he lets it get to his body. The comebacks he run normally aren't as clean as you'd like...possibly because he doesn't truly scare a defender with speed going deep so they don't give as much cushion...John Brown used to be WIDE open on those comebacks because DBs had to respect his deep speed.

 

I think he is a hard worker that is going to probably continue to improve. The question is going to be whether the Bills want to sink the kind of money into a #2 WR that it would take to keep him. I think it's going to be tough to really justify, tbh.

 

Similar to Robert Woods, he is going to get paid by someone...probably won't be the Bills.

 

Thanks for clarifying your point.  I agree, long routes are intrinsically lower completion %.  I'm not sure that's the case with Davis.

 

To my eyes, Gabe has been running both intermediate (meaning 5-15 yd-ish) and deeper routes all season

I haven't seen him on shorter routes, and of recent, as discussed elsewhere, I think Dorsey's play designs have featured either deep or very short routes.

 

I'm sure some site breaks down WR targets by depth, but I can't find it.

 

There's only one game this season (Baltimore) where Davis had fewer than 5 targets.  He averages 6 targets per game, and that's in fact his median # of targets: 1 10 target game, 3 7 target games, 3 6 target games, 3 5 target games, 1 3 target game. 

 

Seems to me Davis has been a focal point most games.   It's not like Dawson Knox, who has 5 games with 3 or fewer targets, or Isaiah McKenzie, ditto.

 

I would say Davis low catch percentage is, in fact, to some extent a product of Josh making him a focal point most games - he can be quite well covered, and Josh will trust him to make a play and throw it in there, giving him a lot of contested catches.  I commented on Thursday while watching the game "Josh is doing him no favors".

 

 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

 

34 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

So the Bills expected more than being a top 30 WR in YPG? 

 

 

It's been said elsewhere.  It's not the YPG that are the problem, it's the consistency. 

 

I'll grant Davis that Josh is giving him a lot of high degree of difficulty catches, or targeting him on deep or sideline balls that are essentially, throw aways - balls where if he did manage to put on a burst or catch it with a guy's hands in his face, you would say "wow!".  (this may be generous, since some of them would be catches perhaps if Gabe ran a better route).

 

But then there have been 3-5 balls where you go "he really should have caught that", in addition to his 7 scored drops.  Let's say he managed to catch 4 of them - he had only 3 scored drops as a rookie with a similar number of target as this season to date - he'd be at 60% completion, the Bills would have a couple more TDs and 1Ds, and this wouldn't be a convo.

 

I grant that Davis has played a couple games hampered on an injured ankle, and people have hypothesized he's still hampered (despite not being on injury report).  I point to what Allen said when Tim Graham asked about him playing through injury:

 

"We’re 8-3. That's it. I'm out there," Allen said. "If anybody says they're playing injury-free in this league, they’re probably lying to you. Everybody’s battling injuries, battling bumps and bruises. If I’m going to be the guy that I think I am, I say I am and my teammates think I am, (then) I've got to go be that guy, so that's all there is to it."

 

 

[Tanoros]

21 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

I think he does as well. There is something about growing into a role also and having to learn how to adjust as defenses paly you differently also. I think he will be fine and likely take another step forward next year, assuming the Bills resign him.

He has one more year on his rookie contract FYI

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

He has one more year on his rookie contract FYI

 

Why do I keep thinking he is in his 4th year?? You are right...it's only year 3.

[Tanoros]

20 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

He rolled an ankle in a walkthrough before Week 2.

 

It’s now Week 13.

 

What kind of ankle sprain keeps you out 1-week, but hangs around the next 11 weeks? 

To be fair, he would have missed more than 1 game if not for other wr injuries (crowder, Kumrow). Also, he plays a very high (90%) of snaps. Perhaps his ankle hasn’t fully healed? That’s the speculation here anyway. 

[smuvtalker]

21 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

Gabe does not seem to be getting us much separation since the ankle injury.  Anybody know anything?  Gabe is a gamer, would not surprise me if it is still not right.  I think he could have a nice stretch run with this mini-bye to get healthy.  We need him to relieve more pressure from Diggs, IMHO.

I wouldn't be surprised a bit if the ankle was still bothering him to a degree.  To me, it seems just these last couple of games, last week in particular, that he's looked alot closer to normal, which could also explain why last week against the Pats he looked to be alot more himself.  I'm hoping that that's been the reason for his lackluster play this season.  Like you said, with this little mini-bye, I'm expecting several players to heal up/rest up, and come out with their hair on fire against the Jets.  I am very wary of making predictions during the season, but I have never felt more confident/excited for our next game.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Gabe has not met expectations. But those expectations were also sky high. Gabe has been a proven big time player for this team in the postseason. Both his rookie year and last year. We likely don't win the Colts WC game without the two clutch catches he makes before halftime on that TD drive. I'm confident Gabe can step up again as he always has. Unfortunately he might not be that #1 WR in waiting that we thought he could be. 

 

On the plus side, I think many of us thought Diggs was entering the downside of his career after coming off a 127 reception 1,500 yard season he dropped all the way down to 102 receptions 1,200 yards in a season with one extra game than the previous year. But now he is on pace to shatter his per game averages from that 1,500 yard 16 game season. 

[Man with No Name]

22 hours ago, FireChans said:

Gabe’s numbers would look a lot better if he stopped dropping passes that hit him in the hands.