Figuring out Knox

[Process]

12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Not as big of a difference as some would lead you to believe between this year and last year.  Basically 100 more receiving yards on the same number of catches last year.

 

 

Again the issue is not his production...it's his contract. There was zero reason to pay Knox that much and definitely no reason to give him his second contract early. He was still under contract for this year. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

I am beating a dead horse, but if they don’t have a plan to make Knox a focal point of the offense, then they should not have handed him a massive contract making him one of the best paid TE’s in the league. 

 

His AAV is 13M which puts him at 7th, right ahead of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry.   Ertz got 10.5 but he's always hurt (i believe he just went to IR).  Next in line for extensions are Gesicki, Schultz, and Engram.  I don't see any of them jumping Knox.  Year after that Hockenson, Fant, Kmet come up.  Their extensions probably hit next offseason and push \Knox down.  

 

At the end of the day - were about 20th in TE spending in 2022 (maybe higher with the howard dead money) and 2023 towards the cap, and we jump up to 8th in 2024 for cap dollars.  However when you look at that list, half of the teams have either a rookie contract, or nothing really at all committed to TE.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 minutes ago, Process said:

Again the issue is not his production...it's his contract. There was zero reason to pay Knox that much and definitely no reason to give him his second contract early. He was still under contract for this year. 

 

It avoids having to use a tag though, or risk having nothing at the position.   He's at least on par with Gesicki, Engram, and Schultz. 

 

It's a position with a steep learning curve in the NFL so rookies tend to not contribute as much.  Then you have the drop off in skills once you get outside that top group.  There might be a skill gap around blocking, they may not be a plus athlete, or have availability issues.  May have just felt comfortable to overpay a little bit.  

 

Smith and Henry got 12.5 a year before knox was paid, Uzomah got 8M AAV.  

[below]

He always seems to come through when he's targeted. Great catches. Great after the catch.  Just isn't used that much. 

 

I thought the contract was crazy high too. But I think it's just the going rate now for above-average TE's.  It's always been a position of scarcity. 

 

He's probably the best TE we've had since I've been watching the Bills (30 years). 

 

So I see it as a good problem to have.

 

Unfortunately the opportunity cost is going to be the inability to afford to keep someone else, like Poyer.

 

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

On 12/1/2022 at 11:12 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Let's not over think this. He's the same exact player he has always been. Only difference is the TD's dried up. That shouldn't be a surprise. TD's are less predictive year over year than receptions and yardage totals. He averaged 3.3 receptions per game last year. And this year he is averaging... 3.3 receptions per game.

 

To your point:

 

 

Top is 2022

Bottom is 2021

 

Difference: 5 TD

 

And the winning comment:

 

On 12/1/2022 at 11:13 PM, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

agree. He could have easily had like 5-7 catches. 

 

And this.  He's been living a lot in the "very short pass/check down" area of the field where Josh Allen has a tendency not to see a guy.

 

He has missed some catches he could have had, which had me PERCEIVING him as struggling in the passing game  - but I was surprised when I looked - he's actually rocking a career best catch % at 76.7% and his drop % is a career low to this point (he has had some catches we look at and say "he could and should have had that", but they weren't scored  as drops)

 

It is true that his receptions per game and targets per game are down, but it's only fractionally - basically, 1 target per game.

 

I think the problem is, we expected his trajectory to continue to climb as far as targets, receptions, and yards, especially when he got the big contract.  So he's doing pretty much what he was doing when he got paid, we all just expected .....more.

 

BUT the above is still true.  Knox is being under-utilized and could easily have, maybe not the 7 reception 70 yd game he had vs. the Browns, but a 5 target, 4 reception game for 40 yds or more, every game - many on plays where Allen is targeting a higher risk, better covered deeper option.

[Beck Water]

On 12/1/2022 at 10:54 PM, Awwufelloff said:

He was signed to that contract to make Allen happy as they are good friends. That's all I have as he's not worth anywhere near that contract.

 

Beane may make minor, relatively low-impact personnel decisions to "make Allen happy".

 

For example, faced with two TE who aren't very good in OJ Howard and Tommy Sweeney, either likely to be inactive on game day, Beane may keep the one who knows our playbook better and who is "good friends" with Allen over the one who, in theory, has a higher ceiling once he learns the playbook. 

 

Faced with keeping one of two WR on the practice squad, Beane may keep Allen's boy Gentry who, as a vet may be better at "looks" on scout team, over a younger guy with possibly more long-term potential (in theory).

 

(Note that in both these cases there may be a sound football reason for the choice, but "making Allen happy" could weigh into it.)

 

But if you think Beane is going to hand out a 4 year, $52M contract to "make Allen happy" and not because he thinks that's genuinely fair market value for the guy - Think Again.

[ArdmoreRyno]

Knox 4 catches for 41 yards and a MONSTER touchdown today 

[Beast]

11 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

Knox 4 catches for 41 yards and a MONSTER touchdown today 

He sure did.

 

And he also had 2 other balls you would like to see a high priced TE haul in that he didn’t.

[ArdmoreRyno]

25 minutes ago, Beast said:

He sure did.

 

And he also had 2 other balls you would like to see a high priced TE haul in that he didn’t.

So did Diggs & Isiah.