NFL Source - Elam Benched Tonight

[Big Turk]

40 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Uh oh.
 

Basically, Elam has not been playing well.

 

lol it’s pretty troubling to not understand assignments this late in the season.

 

Nah...it's hilarious the overreactions to just about anything on this board. Any "the sky must be falling" incident that can be looked at with panic is automatically made worst case scenario.

 

My God...I am really glad I don't have to work with a lot of the boards posters...couldn't imagine how things must go at work and how easily they would get flustered. 

[RocCityRoller]

22 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

These metrics are a welcome addition to the dialogue surrounding Elam's healthy scratch tonight. 

 

Seems like a predictable selection of posters are eager for this to be more than a coach's decision based on perceived matchups and competitive advantage. I've read some reasonable guesses at the Bills looking to employ a more zone-heavy scheme, which is not Elam's strength and DOES typically help DBs rally to stop the run.

 

We SHOULD probably trust McD and Frazier when it comes to DB development and gameday management, no? 

 

Also, whatever they were trying to do with the secondary DID coincide with Taron Johnson apparently (to my eye) having a heck of a game. So there is that. When he's playing well this defense is playing well. 

Thanks. I was really down on Jackson since the Minny game. I trust ProFootball Reference more than PFF and even Football Outsiders so I wanted to look up the advanced defensive stats on the DB trio, and T Johnson too.

 

I was surprised how, despite 2-3 clear bad games Dane Jackson still was the best of the 3 CBs.

It also showed what many thought, that Benford was having a better season than Elam.

 

Elam is more a press cover guy, changing to a heavier zone scheme is not going to be easy. He also was more gifted athletically or on par with a lot of the WRs he faced in college. Won't be the case in the NFL. That said he has the traits and mentality to improve. This season has been trial by fire for the young CBs and I think overall they did enough to help bridge the gap.

 

I know many think Benford will be moved to S. Maybe the right play would be to keep Benford at CB and move Elam to S or Big Nickel (Siran Neal position) where his brand of more physical DB play could be better utilized? He is basically the same size as Poyer and Hyde. If I recall correctly Hyde was available because Green Bay knew he was a good DB, but couldn't figure out how to utilize him. He was a utility DB for GB. McDermott and Frazier knew he was a S and has become a difference maker with their tutelage.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Through game 10

QB Rating against Corners this season (Pro Football Reference)

Jackson: 77.2 (33/59 55.9% 3TD 2INT) def snaps 620

Benford: 84.1 (17/28 60.7% 1TD 1INT) def snaps 363

Elam: 88.4 (28/40 70.0% 2TD 2INT) def snaps 390

Johnson: 105.6 (45/67 67.2% 5TD 1INT) def snaps 667

 

Jackson certainly did struggle the past 2 games or so, But Elam is allowing a 70% catch and an 88.4 QB rating against.

 

Stats also back up the eyeball test that Taron Johnson is having a terrible season

In coverage.  He’s been his usual very good in the box

[Einstein]

16 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Nah...it's hilarious the overreactions to just about anything on this board. Any "the sky must be falling" incident that can be looked at with panic is automatically made worst case scenario.

 

My God...I am really glad I don't have to work with a lot of the boards posters...couldn't imagine how things must go at work and how easily they would get flustered. 

 

You’re right, i’m sure McD is happy to have to sit his 1st round CB in the home stretch of the season when the secondary is hobbled.

[Dr.Sack]

Elam will be fine 

[Big Turk]

13 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You’re right, i’m sure McD is happy to have to sit his 1st round CB in the home stretch of the season when the secondary is hobbled.

 

And I'm sure you probably never played sports before. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Big Turk

[Richard Noggin]

2 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

Thanks. I was really down on Jackson since the Minny game. I trust ProFootball Reference more than PFF and even Football Outsiders so I wanted to look up the advanced defensive stats on the DB trio, and T Johnson too.

 

I was surprised how, despite 2-3 clear bad games Dane Jackson still was the best of the 3 CBs.

It also showed what many thought, that Benford was having a better season than Elam.

 

Elam is more a press cover guy, changing to a heavier zone scheme is not going to be easy. He also was more gifted athletically or on par with a lot of the WRs he faced in college. Won't be the case in the NFL. That said he has the traits and mentality to improve. This season has been trial by fire for the young CBs and I think overall they did enough to help bridge the gap.

 

I know many think Benford will be moved to S. Maybe the right play would be to keep Benford at CB and move Elam to S or Big Nickel (Siran Neal position) where his brand of more physical DB play could be better utilized? He is basically the same size as Poyer and Hyde. If I recall correctly Hyde was available because Green Bay knew he was a good DB, but couldn't figure out how to utilize him. He was a utility DB for GB. McDermott and Frazier knew he was a S and has become a difference maker with their tutelage.

 

Have to vociferously disagree on your last points here. Benford, to me, screams AJ/Aaron Williams, who was/is strong and tenacious but limited athletically as a CB. Benford has plus size and strength, but meh long speed and poor agility/change-of-direction. He can maybe get by in a zone-heavy scheme outside, but might eventually actually THRIVE as a safety.

 

Elam is nearly the opposite: he's a rangy, fast CB who is more comfortable relying on his length and speed in press-man/bump-and-run coverage. Not yet a strong tackler (although maybe better than advertised). Not yet comfortable with zone concepts and playing with his eyes instead of his hands. Really bad candidate for safety. Also a project as a zone or "off" CB. 

[RocCityRoller]

13 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Have to vociferously disagree on your last points here. Benford, to me, screams AJ/Aaron Williams, who was/is strong and tenacious but limited athletically as a CB. Benford has plus size and strength, but meh long speed and poor agility/change-of-direction. He can maybe get by in a zone-heavy scheme outside, but might eventually actually THRIVE as a safety.

 

Elam is nearly the opposite: he's a rangy, fast CB who is more comfortable relying on his length and speed in press-man/bump-and-run coverage. Not yet a strong tackler (although maybe better than advertised). Not yet comfortable with zone concepts and playing with his eyes instead of his hands. Really bad candidate for safety. Also a project as a zone or "off" CB. 

 

Fair points a lot of folks here would agree with you. Will be interesting to see what happens this offseason. Bills are in a cap jam (seemingly) and have a bunch of FAs including Dane Jackson (ERFA) and Poyer. The 'trials by fire' should only help with the impending transitions. Nice to have options.

[Einstein]

 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

Through game 10

QB Rating against Corners this season (Pro Football Reference)

Jackson: 77.2 (33/59 55.9% 3TD 2INT) def snaps 620

Benford: 84.1 (17/28 60.7% 1TD 1INT) def snaps 363

Elam: 88.4 (28/40 70.0% 2TD 2INT) def snaps 390

Johnson: 105.6 (45/67 67.2% 5TD 1INT) def snaps 667

 

Jackson certainly did struggle the past 2 games or so, But Elam is allowing a 70% catch and an 88.4 QB rating against.

 

Stats also back up the eyeball test that Taron Johnson is having a terrible season

 

Elam has given up completions but take out the Pittsburgh game he has not given up yards. He has been letting them have the underneath and not getting beat deep which is what this scheme values. He had played better than Benford and Jackson recently has had his struggled.

 

And Rhoded is washed.

 

I don't get it.

[vincec]

Looks like they made the right call.

[RocCityRoller]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Elam has given up completions but take out the Pittsburgh game he has not given up yards. He has been letting them have the underneath and not getting beat deep which is what this scheme values. He had played better than Benford and Jackson recently has had his struggled.

 

And Rhoded is washed.

 

I don't get it.

Hey Gunner, I usually agree with you. But 'Rhodes is washed', and 'Singletary has stone hands' makes me wonder if your Sleep Number mattress is working for you! I replied to your comment about Singletary in the other thread.

 

As for CBs:

Elam is giving up a 70% completion percentage against. That is bad.

By any account that is bad.

 

Jackson has drawn/ mirrored the #1 WR most of the season due to injuries and gave up 56%, not great, but understandable.

That includes guys like Jefferson vs MIN.

 

As for Rhodes, yes he is 32. Yes he regressed a lot in past years. He also played in a Frazier defense in the past.

I'm waiting to see Rhodes stats vs New England, because he was a shut down CB vs. Detroit.

 

I only have his 1 game vs Detroit to work with.

He played 25 snaps. His receiver was targeted once. 1 time in 25 snaps (4% targeted)

The pass allowed went for 5 yards.

 

It's a tiny sample, but he wasn't 'washed'. I'll take 4% target against and 5 yds allowed by my CB any day.

 

ProFootball Reference is updating stats, so let's look at targets against snaps as another qualifier when the data is complete.

If QBs are making throws against, that means they think a WR is open or could catch a pass vs a DB.

I bet the stats do not agree with you, and much of the board TBH.

 

I am willing to bet QBs do not like throwing against Benford or Rhodes.

Edited December 2, 2022 by RocCityRoller

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Calm down, folks.  There’s a culture of excellence on this team and Elam fell short of something.  For all we know maybe he just had a lazy practice or something.  I hate how we take one little blip in guys’ rookie seasons and assume they’ll never improve.

Edited December 2, 2022 by SageAgainstTheMachine

[FLFan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Elam has given up completions but take out the Pittsburgh game he has not given up yards. He has been letting them have the underneath and not getting beat deep which is what this scheme values. He had played better than Benford and Jackson recently has had his struggled.

 

And Rhoded is washed.

 

I don't get it.

I agree on Elam’s performance.  It has to be some sort of internal issue (discipline?) or perhaps a late personal issue.  I doubt we will ever know,  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, RocCityRoller said:

Hey Gunner, I usually agree with you. But 'Rhodes is washed', and 'Singletary has stone hands' makes me wonder if your Sleep Number mattress is working for you!

I replied to your comment about Singletary in the other thread.

 

As for CBs:

Elam is giving up a 70% completion percentage against. That is bad.

By any account that is bad.

 

Jackson has drawn/ mirrored the #1 WR most of the season due to injuries and gave up 56%, not great, but understandable.

That includes guys like Jefferson vs MIN.

 

As for Rhodes, yes he is 32. Yes he regressed a lot in past years. He also played in a Frazier defense in the past.

I'm waiting to see Rhodes stats vs New England, because he was a shut down CB vs. Detroit.

 

I only have his 1 game vs Detroit to work with.

He played 25 snaps. His receiver was targeted once. 1 time in 25 snaps (4% targeted)

The pass allowed went for 5 yards.

 

It's a tiny sample, but he wasn't 'washed'. I'll take 4% target against and 5 yds allowed by my CB any day.

 

ProFootball Reference is updating stats, so let's look at targets against snaps as another qualifier when the data is complete.

If QBs are making throws against, that means they think a WR is open or could catch a pass vs a DB.

I bet the stats do not agree with you, and much of the board TBH.

 

I am willing to bet QBs do not like throwing against Benford or Rhodes.

 

I just see it differently on Elam. Yes, he is giving up 70%. Yes, you'd want him to make a few more plays on the ball. But this is a kid who came out as a hyper aggressive man corner who, if anything struggled with the discipline of zone. I think some of the high completion rate is an overcorrection as he adjusts to zone defense. There have been occasions where he has maybe given up slightly too much cushion which has meant all he can do is tackle and he has to find a middle ground where he keeps it infront of him and makes a play on the ball. The only game he has actually given up plays that have hurt is the Pittsburgh game. He is at 11 yards per completion - that is the same as Dane. And he HAS faced some #1 receiver assignments because the Bills corners (other than sometimes Tre) do not travel. Benford is giving up an extra 2 and a half yards per completion. Because while he might make a few more plays on the underneath stuff teams are willing to test Benford downfield and they have generally stayed away from doing that with Elam. 

 

Is Elam the finished, polished, perfect starting corner? No. But what they were asking the kid to do was make a pretty significant scheme adjustment from what he played in college, betting on his physical talent. To bench him for Xavier Rhodes who would probably lose a foot race to most of the roster at this stage rather than let him gain experience and find his sweet spot is a mistake in my opinion. 

 

Elam was targeted once in 16 snaps in Detroit and that was an incompletion. There was nothing there to suggest that somehow he had played his way onto the inactives. I also didn't understand how Dean Marlowe ended up there with Cam Lewis up instead. Just bizarre to me. Both decisions. 

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, uticaclub said:

Discipline?

Since it’s not illness or injury it has to be discipline or play - and I can’t see how his play could be the reason he’s made inactive. Someone else starting over him, sure. But not inactive. Has to be a disciplinary move. 

[BananaB]

8 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not troubling at all. A lot of these defensive miscues the last few games with guys running wide open have been due to the rookies...especially with them not passing off receivers in stacks/bunch formation pick plays leading to guys being wide open. 

 

Bills probably have given him a bunch of chances to correct it and he is still making the same mistakes. 

 

McD have him a night off to reevaluate what he needs to do and maybe watch a vet do it.

 

Likely not a punishment, more like a learning experience for him.

 

The past couple weeks Elam has been injured while Dane Jackson has been getting torched

[TheyCallMeAndy]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

McDermott was just asked about this, he basically said it was just about what they saw on tape and alluded to a "good competition" between Rhodes and Elam. This is pretty troubling.

Gross answer.

For sure, but we’ve seen guys get benched and it light a fire. Let’s see how the kid responds. 

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Big Turk said:

It likely is a matchup decision. Bills do this quite a bit...they must feel like someone else is better for the matchup they want.

 

After watching the game and looking at the snap counts, I'm pretty sure this is what happened.

 

Elam is still "progressing" in learning to be a zone corner.  I'm pretty sure the Bills were playing a lot of zone.  Not only that, from the snap counts they were moving their corners around.  Rhodes played 87% of the snaps, Tre White 61%, Dane Jackson 52%.

 

The Bills didn't play the D I expected them to play.  I thought they would play some base 4-3 - Nope, Not a single snap.  Then, last time they played the Pats IIRC, they swapped Siran Neal in at times to give us a "heavy nickle".  Nope.  Not once.

 

So I think "better matchup against passes to Rhamondre Stevenson and the run, better fit for the zone D we want to run for this game" is the answer.

 

32 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Since it’s not illness or injury it has to be discipline or play - and I can’t see how his play could be the reason he’s made inactive. Someone else starting over him, sure. But not inactive. Has to be a disciplinary move. 

 

People love to get all mystery/conspiracy minded but I don't think that was it.  I think it was a matchup decision based on wanting to play nickle and zone against a run-heavy offense with a lot of passes to the RB and wanting to throw a lot of different "looks" at Jones in a hostile environment.

 

Elam needs to progress as a zone corner still and as a sure tackler of a tank like Stevenson.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Beck Water

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

After watching the game and looking at the snap counts, I'm pretty sure this is what happened.

 

Elam is still "progressing" in learning to be a zone corner.  I'm pretty sure the Bills were playing a lot of zone.  Not only that, from the snap counts they were moving their corners around.  Rhodes played 87% of the snaps, Tre White 61%, Dane Jackson 52%.

 

The Bills didn't play the D I expected them to play.  I thought they would play some base 4-3 - Nope, Not a single snap.  Then, last time they played the Pats IIRC, they swapped Siran Neal in at times to give us a "heavy nickle".  Nope.  Not once.

 

So I think "better matchup against passes to Rhamondre Stevenson and the run, better fit for the zone D we want to run for this game" is the answer.

Whatever it was, it worked. On to the next game.