Bills among "unluckiest" teams in terms of Net Win Probability Added(worst in terms of FR luck)

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Wide right, music city miracle, Folk's 50, hail murray, 13 seconds, Mckelvins mishap and many, many more, all led to losses.  This team has no luck...4 straight super bowl losses proved that over 30 years ago.  Luck goes a long way.  I mean geez, I remember when Allen went on a coin flip win streak...now it seems we can't win a toss to save our souls.

 

The Bills didn't lose any of those Super Bowls due to luck. They got flat out beat by the other team. When your kicker misses a FG, that's not unlucky, its a bad kick or hold.  Besides, the Giants had a much better game plan to keep Kelly and company off the field. That's not luck.

 

Sure luck plays a part in football cuz the football has a funny shape and bounces unpredictably.  

 

And we didn't lose any games this year due to luck. In any of the losses if we had played better earlier in the game it wouldn't have mattered.  Kick the FG. Knock the football down. Don't fumble the snap. Etc.

 

https://www.forbes.com/quotes/6145/

Edited November 30, 2022 by reddogblitz

[WhoTom]

37 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

You don't need a spreadsheet to watch what happens to us all the time. Every highlight reel or some unbelievable finish has us on the losing end.

 

24 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Well, 3/11 times so far this year, anyway.

 

Sometimes a spreadsheet is, in fact, necessary.

 

 

[Charles Romes]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I remember that year...wasn't that the year they played Kyle Orton and he was awful most games but the D/ST made crazy and timely plays to win games?

 The 13-3 Bears lucky season was before orton. Shane Mathews and jim Miller (nfl network) we’re the qbs. It was really a one year wonder team, falling off to 4-12 the year after.  They did have one great player Ted Washington who just went over from Buffalo and was still great. 

[nosejob]

Stats, Schmats...if my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle. Remember the havoc we wreaked starting at this point last year. We get past the Pats and 3 games in 12 days after a blizzard with no practices and being on the road....we will start smoking.

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

 The 13-3 Bears lucky season was before orton. Shane Mathews and jim Miller (nfl network) we’re the qbs. It was really a one year wonder team, falling off to 4-12 the year after.  They did have one great player Ted Washington who just went over from Buffalo and was still great. 

 

Didn't they have some ridiculous streak of D/ST TD's also?  I vaguely remember that team and everyone wondering how they kept winning.

[Sharky7337]

1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

 

 

Sometimes a spreadsheet is, in fact, necessary.

 

 

Ya if you are blind to context. We weren't in 11 games of the year or hail Murray type games.

 

This is exactly why spreadsheets are blind. Thanks for proving my point for me.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Sharky7337

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

57 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

 The 13-3 Bears lucky season was before orton. Shane Mathews and jim Miller (nfl network) we’re the qbs. It was really a one year wonder team, falling off to 4-12 the year after.  They did have one great player Ted Washington who just went over from Buffalo and was still great. 

 

They were 13-3 with Rex Grossman, and 11-5 the year before with Orton.  Those are Lovie Smith teams though.

 

Both Jaurons 13-3 team, and Smiths 11-5 team had 5 defensive scores.  The 11-5 team had a crappier offense, but I'd say both were really lucky in many ways.  

 

As for great players... Urlacher, Mike Brown, Colvin.  The 05 team had Briggs who was really solid as a SAM, Vasher/Tillman who were really good.  

[FilthyBeast]

Like the old saying goes 'Good teams create their own luck', and things like this are just another excuse for this team shortcomings that start at the top with coaching and poor roster decisions.

 

With that said, this team is still 8-3 and at least at present still in a position to win the division and get a top seed, so bad luck or not it means something.

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

So, conversely,  if the opposing kicker makes a FG/PAT, it's bad luck for the Bills?  If opposing Kickers vs the Bills never miss a PAT all year...that's just "bad luck" for the Bills?

 

It's not random, as fumble recovery often is.   Balls bounce where they go.

uh no. that would be no luck, or unlucky like the title of the thread. not necessarily bad luck. the takeaway is it doesnt seem a lot of "lucky" bounces in those catergories go the bills way. i dunno where all the contention is here. it seems pretty cut and dry.

[reddogblitz]

Crying about bad luck is for losers.

[WhoTom]

1 hour ago, Sharky7337 said:

Ya if you are blind to context. We weren't in 11 games of the year or hail Murray type games.

 

This is exactly why spreadsheets are blind. Thanks for proving my point for me.

 

In the context of our injury situation, I'd say being 8-3 doesn't indicate bad luck. The injuries are unlucky, but the results are still damn good. We're the #3 seed in the AFC and still in contention for #1.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

uh no. that would be no luck, or unlucky like the title of the thread. not necessarily bad luck. the takeaway is it doesnt seem a lot of "lucky" bounces in those catergories go the bills way. i dunno where all the contention is here. it seems pretty cut and dry.

 

 

Oh....so it would be unlucky if Bills opponents hit every PAT this year, even though, collectively, they are averaging 94% success rate for the season (all 10 opponents so far, as a group)?

 

Yeah, it's a bogus "stat", pretty cut and dry. It has no meaningful inference. 

[pennstate10]

On 11/29/2022 at 2:07 PM, reddogblitz said:

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

Actually, I think this is pretty meaningful info. Anecdotally, it seems that kickers never miss against us, andWR don’t drop balls, but make highlight reelctches

 

I don’t think all these categories are complete luck, for instance, a great D always has a lot of players rallying to the ball. luck has a way of regressing to the mean, which is good news for Bills fans. 

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

Actually, I think this is pretty meaningful info. Anecdotally, it seems that kickers never miss against us, andWR don’t drop balls, but make highlight reelctches

 

I don’t think all these categories are complete luck, for instance, a great D always has a lot of players rallying to the ball. luck has a way of regressing to the mean, which is good news for Bills fans. 

 

They don't?

 

The Vikings kicker missed an extra point with 4:38 to play In the 4th quarter making it only a 3 point game as opposed to 4.

 

The Clowns kicker missed a 34 yard FG.

 

The Lions kicker missed a 29 yard FG.

 

It's our kicker that never misses.

[DrPJax]

On 11/29/2022 at 2:07 PM, reddogblitz said:

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

Yep, didn’t Marv or someone say luck is Where preparation meets opportunity? So basically it’s just a round about watt of saying we are not preparing enough to take advantage of opportunities?  With no chance to practice and the crazy injuries , it’s probably more relistic to say we are not getting enough preparation or practice to take advantage of our opportunities.   Makes more sense than some. Newly created stat that may lack reproducibility or priot test of time.  I trust in marvisms over analytics. 😊😀

[Tanoros]

On 11/29/2022 at 11:07 AM, reddogblitz said:

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

I mean your right, but these, “propeller head” stats add context to the win/loss records. Are you not on this board to talk Bills football, and a deeper understanding of Bills football?

 

For instance, when I look at those stats, I see Vikings and Eagles towards the top of the list (luck helping to explain some of their records, but not all). Where as the Bills and KC are towards the bottom, but still have a good win/loss record. Meaning, they are playing to make up for the bad luck. Which further shows (what are eyes see) that KC and Buffalo are much more solid teams, that don’t need luck to win (personally, QB play has to be a big part of willing a team to win). 
 

Before looking at that list, would you have argued if anyone mentioned the Giants are the luckiest team in the league? Because, I’ve felt that much of their wins are luck, but Daboll has gotten them to play hard (plenty of teams do that and don’t win though). 
 

Anyway, stats can be used to help take a deeper look at the metrics behind the win/loss and help confirm what our eyes are seeing. 

 

 

14 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Actually, I think this is pretty meaningful info. Anecdotally, it seems that kickers never miss against us, andWR don’t drop balls, but make highlight reelctches

 

I don’t think all these categories are complete luck, for instance, a great D always has a lot of players rallying to the ball. luck has a way of regressing to the mean, which is good news for Bills fans. 

I’ve been amazed this season (especially the last 4 weeks or so) at how many times our DB’s are playing tight coverage and the wr makes a great contested catch. Many times our DB’s could have played the ball better, but it was still tight coverage and those catches aren’t always a given. 

[pennstate10]

11 hours ago, DrPJax said:

Yep, didn’t Marv or someone say luck is Where preparation meets opportunity? So basically it’s just a round about watt of saying we are not preparing enough to take advantage of opportunities?  With no chance to practice and the crazy injuries , it’s probably more relistic to say we are not getting enough preparation or practice to take advantage of our opportunities.   Makes more sense than some. Newly created stat that may lack reproducibility or priot test of time.  I trust in marvisms over analytics. 😊😀

The quote from Marv is good. 
 

he’s saying that part of luck is random “the opportunity”, but part is non random “preparation”. 
 

If a deflected ball bounce to you, that’s (mostly) random. If youve trained yourself to always be alert to the possibility of deflected balls and done enough tip drills, that’s where preparation comes in.