Bills among "unluckiest" teams in terms of Net Win Probability Added(worst in terms of FR luck)

[Saint Doug]

So, teams bring their A game against us. Do we bring our A game to them?

[US Egg]

So the 8-3 Bills need to make sure they carry good luck charms.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

1 hour ago, TheBrownBear said:

I want in with you guys.  Very rare cancer as a kid and still dealing with the side and late term effects of chemo and radiation.  I too have never won in a game of chance - which at least kept me from developing a gambling habit.  Had a dream backpacking trip planned to Glacier a year in advance and the day before my backcountry reservation my car broke down in Billings, Montana. Had to stay in a KOA for a week instead while the mechanic waited for parts.  My wife left me for a woman, but other than that I can't remember another instance of "good luck" during my 40+ years on Earth.

 

I need another emoji for this!

 

For real, though: there needs to be a "Hey, I'm a Bills fan who not only dealt for 40 years of bad luck from our team, but also was dealt a really $#!++Y Hand, in life" club. At least we could all put a few back, tell some tales, root for the Bills, and commiserate together, if nothing else. 

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Sounds about right to what we've been seeing on the field.

 

Which is a big concern and bummer as far as our Super Bowl aspirations go, because one thing that every SB champion has in common is a good amount of luck breaking their way through the season.

 

As the old saying goes "it's better to be lucky than to be good"

 

 

Strong disagree here.

 

If you're going to have luck it doesn't have to be through the season. More through the playoffs. Late in the season almost as much.

 

And some teams are just good enough to make luck incidental.

 

Nor does past bad luck affect luck going forward.

 

It's more interesting than a concern.

[Mr. WEO]

Fumble recoveries are basically luck.  Dropped passes/int, FG/PATs aren't .

[Ramza86]

18 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

 

Could be 10-1 with a little luck on our side.

[inthebuff]

"Luck is the residue of design” was a popular saying of the famous Brooklyn Dodgers GM Branch Rickey.

[entropyrules]

18 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

Nothing like a mixed metaphor early in the morning before the caffeine kicks in- Kudos!!!

[Big Turk]

31 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Fumble recoveries are basically luck.  Dropped passes/int, FG/PATs aren't .

 

Sure they are.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Sure they are.

 

How is a dropped pass or missed FG "bad luck"?

[Stank_Nasty]

43 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

How is a dropped pass or missed FG "bad luck"?

having the opponent drop a pass or miss a fg is fairly lucky. thats what the graph categories are. its not how many we've dropped or missed ourselves.

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Strong disagree here.

 

If you're going to have luck it doesn't have to be through the season. More through the playoffs. Late in the season almost as much.

 

And some teams are just good enough to make luck incidental.

 

Nor does past bad luck affect luck going forward.

 

It's more interesting than a concern.

 

Over a period of time these things tend to balance out and regress towards the mean, similar to if you tossed a coin...you may have a wide margin after 50 tosses where heads might be 35 to 15, but when you get to 500, 1000, 3000, etc there is a good chance it is much closer to 50/50. 

 

So it becomes how long does it happen where "luck" goes the other way?  It could very well correct over the course of a year, but it could be a thing that doesn't change until the following season as well...hard to say, but it would be nice if some of these started going our way...

 

Oliver's fumble recovery and the missed 29 yarder in the Lions game was a good start, I have to say.

51 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

How is a dropped pass or missed FG "bad luck"?

 

Because when it happens, there is not really anything that the Bills did that caused that not to happen.  One thing if a Bills player was in position and swatted the ball away, or they tipped the FG at the line.  Another when a player is standing all by himself and drops the ball, or the kicker misses randomly when there is a clean operation and no pressure.  

 

 

[Charles Romes]

We had to suffer through Dick Jauron because of his single successful 13-3 Chicago season known as the statistically luckiest team of all time. 

[Nextmanup]

Of course we are one of the unluckiest teams in the league.

 

When was it ever easy to be a Bills fan?

 

 

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

We had to suffer through Dick Jauron because of his single successful 13-3 Chicago season known as the statistically luckiest team of all time. 

 

I remember that year...wasn't that the year they played Kyle Orton and he was awful most games but the D/ST made crazy and timely plays to win games?

[TwistofFate]

23 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

 

Wide right, music city miracle, Folk's 50, hail murray, 13 seconds, Mckelvins mishap and many, many more, all led to losses.  This team has no luck...4 straight super bowl losses proved that over 30 years ago.  Luck goes a long way.  I mean geez, I remember when Allen went on a coin flip win streak...now it seems we can't win a toss to save our souls.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

Wide right, music city miracle, Folk's 50, hail murray, 13 seconds, Mckelvins mishap and many, many more, all led to losses.  This team has no luck...4 straight super bowl losses proved that over 30 years ago.  Luck goes a long way.  I mean geez, I remember when Allen went on a coin flip win streak...now it seems we can't win a toss to save our souls.

 

We just won the last one in Detroit and I believe against Cleveland too...in Detroit...maybe Detroit is just lucky for us.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Big Turk

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

having the opponent drop a pass or miss a fg is fairly lucky. thats what the graph categories are. its not how many we've dropped or missed ourselves.

 

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Over a period of time these things tend to balance out and regress towards the mean, similar to if you tossed a coin...you may have a wide margin after 50 tosses where heads might be 35 to 15, but when you get to 500, 1000, 3000, etc there is a good chance it is much closer to 50/50. 

 

So it becomes how long does it happen where "luck" goes the other way?  It could very well correct over the course of a year, but it could be a thing that doesn't change until the following season as well...hard to say, but it would be nice if some of these started going our way...

 

Oliver's fumble recovery and the missed 29 yarder in the Lions game was a good start, I have to say.

 

Because when it happens, there is not really anything that the Bills did that caused that not to happen.  One thing if a Bills player was in position and swatted the ball away, or they tipped the FG at the line.  Another when a player is standing all by himself and drops the ball, or the kicker misses randomly when there is a clean operation and no pressure.  

 

 

 

So, conversely,  if the opposing kicker makes a FG/PAT, it's bad luck for the Bills?  If opposing Kickers vs the Bills never miss a PAT all year...that's just "bad luck" for the Bills?

 

It's not random, as fumble recovery often is.   Balls bounce where they go.

[Sharky7337]

You don't need a spreadsheet to watch what happens to us all the time. Every highlight reel or some unbelievable finish has us on the losing end.

[Gugny]

11 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

You don't need a spreadsheet to watch what happens to us all the time. Every highlight reel or some unbelievable finish has us on the losing end.

 

Well, 3/11 times so far this year, anyway.