Bills among "unluckiest" teams in terms of Net Win Probability Added(worst in terms of FR luck)

[Big Turk]

 

This is pretty crazy...Bills are 2nd worst only to CAR in terms of "unluckiest" teams. 

 

This covers opponent dropped INT's, opponent dropped passes, opponent FG/XP attempts and fumble recoveries(both teams).  

 

Bills are BY FAR the worst at "fumble luck". 

Bills are 3rd worst in terms of FG/XP attempts

Bills tied for 5th worst in terms of opponent dropped passes(ie, opponents have fewer drops vs. us than they do against other teams)

 

The only thing they are "good" with is dropped INTs by opponents, although that is basically neutral at +.01 ,ranking 12th.

 

This all adds up to a total of -1.65 added net win probability due to "luck", second worst only to the Panthers at -1.68.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Big Turk

[RiotAct]

not surprising on the fumble luck. It feels like every damn game there’s at least one fumble we force, that bounces right back to someone on the offense.

[Stank_Nasty]

Yup..... this feels about right.

[jletha]

We have certainly had bad fumble luck, with key fumbles in Miami, KC, LA, Baltimore. But since this number tracks total WP, it is also heavily influenced by the fumble in the EZ against Minnesota. Our WP went from very high to very low.

[TheBrownBear]

So, the Bills are still tied to their Carolina roots, even where luck is concerned?  Great.

[reddogblitz]

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

Edited November 29, 2022 by reddogblitz

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

I couldn't care less about these propeller head "advanced" stats.  Means nothing IMHO.  The only stat that matter is Wins and Losses. We're 8-3 and tied atop the AFC East.  We're doin' good. Its not rocket surgery.

 

Neither did Dave Gettleman.

[Awwufelloff]

Sabres and Bills. It's a Buffalo thing. We're cursed ya know? 

[Virgil]

Yeah, I didn’t need statistics to prove this.  The only surprising thing is that  another team is worse. 

[Boatdrinks]

41 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is pretty crazy...Bills are 2nd worst only to CAR in terms of "unluckiest" teams. 

 

This covers opponent dropped INT's, opponent dropped passes, opponent FG/XP attempts and fumble recoveries(both teams).  

 

Bills are BY FAR the worst at "fumble luck". 

Bills are 3rd worst in terms of FG/XP attempts

Bills tied for 5th worst in terms of opponent dropped passes(ie, opponents have fewer drops vs. us than they do against other teams)

 

The only thing they are "good" with is dropped INTs by opponents, although that is basically neutral at +.01 ,ranking 12th.

 

This all adds up to a total of -1.65 added net win probability due to "luck", second worst only to the Panthers at -1.68.

 

 

Interesting , and definitely fits in with what has become a recurring theme with the Bills this year.. a LOT of misfortune. 

[DrDawkinstein]

43 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is pretty crazy...Bills are 2nd worst only to CAR in terms of "unluckiest" teams. 

 

This covers opponent dropped INT's, opponent dropped passes, opponent FG/XP attempts and fumble recoveries(both teams).  

 

Bills are BY FAR the worst at "fumble luck". 

Bills are 3rd worst in terms of FG/XP attempts

Bills tied for 5th worst in terms of opponent dropped passes(ie, opponents have fewer drops vs. us than they do against other teams)

 

The only thing they are "good" with is dropped INTs by opponents, although that is basically neutral at +.01 ,ranking 12th.

 

This all adds up to a total of -1.65 added net win probability due to "luck", second worst only to the Panthers at -1.68.

 

 

 

Sounds about right to what we've been seeing on the field.

 

Which is a big concern and bummer as far as our Super Bowl aspirations go, because one thing that every SB champion has in common is a good amount of luck breaking their way through the season.

 

As the old saying goes "it's better to be lucky than to be good"

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Sounds about right to what we've been seeing on the field.

 

Which is a big concern and bummer as far as our Super Bowl aspirations go, because one thing that every SB champion has in common is a good amount of luck breaking their way through the season.

 

As the old saying goes "it's better to be lucky than to be good"

Or, as per regression to the mean, we are due.

[Sestak4ever]

Teams bring their best games against us each week. Wilson’s best game with the Jets, Brisset with the Browns, etc., etc. Opposing receivers seem to make multiple unbelievable catches even in tight coverage. It probably helps us prep for the playoffs.

[Fleezoid]

[The Wiz]

Pretty wild considering they are 2nd in takeaways with the amount of dropped INT's and fumbles not recovered. 

[RiotAct]

18 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Sounds about right to what we've been seeing on the field.

 

Which is a big concern and bummer as far as our Super Bowl aspirations go, because one thing that every SB champion has in common is a good amount of luck breaking their way through the season.

 

As the old saying goes "it's better to be lucky than to be good"

the way I look at it is, we’re 8-3 and maybe some of the lucky bounces start going our way!

[Boatdrinks]

14 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Or, as per regression to the mean, we are due.

They’ve been pretty fortunate the last couple seasons and failed to capitalize on it. They may have their best roster of the 3 years now, but are not having the good fortune. A lot of things have to go right to have a chance at a Super Bowl and the Bills have an uphill climb ahead. 

[WhoTom]

On the other hand, we lucked into Josh in the 2018 draft. That's not a slam on Beane, who obviously did his homework and picked the best one of the bunch, but the fact that four other QB-needy teams had a shot at him - heck, the Browns had TWO shots - and didn't take him.

 

I'll take the Bills' "luck" any day.

 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

   And yet, when luck is stacked against them, both injuries and dumb luck, they have the only lost three close games.

   IF we get healthy at the right time, this will be the most battle tested team in the league. 
    Internal fortitude is real and is often learned through perseverance during bad periods.

    Exactly like last year, the season is just prologue to the playoffs which is the only thing that matters.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

the way I look at it is, we’re 8-3 and maybe some of the lucky bounces start going our way!

 

If we manage to pull it off, it would be quite the 30 For 30 story.

 

Going back to getting screwed by McKissic and WFT which made us lose out on both McKissic and Wallace, the Araiza debacle, Saffold's car accident, Knox's brother passing, each and every injury on what has been the previously healthiest team, the illnesses, moving a home game to Detroit... Let alone all the stuff that has happened in-game like fumbling the snap to give the Vikings the go ahead TD.

 

It's just ridiculous. And we still have 1/3 of the season left!