Dr. Jekyl, Mr. Hyde review of the Sean McDermot

[Chaos]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Careful what you wish for...heard a lot of people say the same thing about Daboll...now look, Dorsey sucks and the offense is no where near what it was the first half the season before teams got tape on Dorsey and figured him out.  

 

 

No disrespect, but you couldn't have listed a more irrelevant point with this one.  History has no significance what so ever in regards to what McD and Allen do or don't do together.  Any correlation would merely be a coincidence.

A 61 year sample, suggests is pretty significant and is a bit silly to dismiss as "coincidence".  In this case it actually goes past correlation and advances to causation.  When NFL owners have their Franchise QB in place, they don't often give coaches many many years to get the team a championship. 

As my first post said quite clearly, "past is not prologue".   But ignoring history as irrelevant rarely serves anyone well.  Only 23 Franchises have won Super Bowls. 25 % of those teams won after making a coaching change, after the Franchise QB was in place:

1. Miami Dolphins draft Bob Griese #4 overall in 1967.  By 1970, team moves on from HC George Wilson to Don Shula.  By 1972 they win the championship.
2. Washington Redskins. Joe Theisman becomes the Redskins starting QB in 1978. Redskins move on from seven year tenured George Allen, and name Jack Pardee as coach. Pardee let go after three seasons.  Joe Gibbs comes in and delivers a championship in year 3
3. New York Giants:  Phill Simms drafted in 1979.  Plays under Ray Perkins without significant team success until 1982.  Bill Parcells comes in in 1983.  Championship delivered by 1986.  
4. Denver Broncos.  Hired Dan Reeves in 1981.  Drafted John Elway in 1983.  Stuck with Reeves until 1992 without ever winning a championhsip.  Replaced Reeves with Wade Phillips. Phillips got 3 seasons until 1994, without winning a championship. Went to Mike Shanahan, who brought home the Championship with John Elway in 1997.   The 11 year no championship run with Reeves is a model teams most don't seem to want to replicate. 
5. Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning drafted in 1998. Jim Mora is the head coach. Has a 13-3 season in 1999.  Lost in the playoffs. Let go after the 2001 season.  Tony Dungy brought in. Delivers championship in year 4. 
6. Green Bay Packers - Packers had both Brett Farve and Aaron Rodgers on their roster from 2000-2006 and were coached by Mike Sherman with some success. But the Packers went in a different direction in 2006 and replaced Sherman with Mike McCarthy. by 2008, Aarron Rodgers was the starter, and in his third season as a starter the packers hoisted the Lombardi trophy. 
   
   These are the stories of teams who made a coaching change after the franchise QB was in place, and won the Super Bowl. 
   
   Of course the story of the winners doesn't tell the story of the teams who never won. Along with Dan Reeves, Marty Shottenheimer, Jeff Fisher, and Marvin Lewis provide the cautionary tales of the downside of  coaching "continuity".
   
    

Edited November 26, 2022 by Chaos

[Big Turk]

11 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Guess you haven’t watched the past 5 games.  

 

I have. They averaged 26.2 points and 396 yards in the last 6. That ranks 6th and 4th in the NFL over that time span.

 

They are struggling to score TDs, not points or get yards.

 

To your point, even while struggling this is a top 5 offense

Edited November 26, 2022 by Big Turk

[Thurman#1]

Stupidity is sad. So is trolling. 

 

One is involved here.

[Ponch]

14 hours ago, Chaos said:

I honestly have never heard an NFL coach make more excuses about being able to get ready than this recent sequence.  

You are so ignorant 

[Chaos]

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Stupidity is sad. So is trolling. 

 

One is involved here.

So don't troll.  And stop being stupid.  Problem solved. 

[Alphadawg7]

43 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I have. They averaged 26.2 points and 396 yards in the last 6. That ranks 6th and 4th in the NFL over that time span.

 

They are struggling to score TDs, not points or get yards.

 

To your point, even while struggling this is a top 5 offense

You say things “even while struggling” while arguing with anyone suggesting the offense is struggling in multiple threads.
 

The offense is very much struggling, and your cherry picking of stats to mask that won’t change that.  I mean it’s not even up for debate.  You again are using general stats with no context to make an incorrect conclusion, just like your injury thread you created.
 

Feels like your new favorite thing to do is to use totals without context.  For example, while you want to say what we average over a full game, you fail to realize a lot of those points and production have come in the first half the past 5 games with the one exception of the Browns game.
 

We ONLY have 2 TDs in the second half of the past 5 games.  We were first in the league in point differential in the second half up through the bye week.  We have been one of the worst since then.  
 

You dont win football games in the first half or staring at game totals to make the picture look more rosey.  You win football games getting the job done to close out games.  And we have 1 million percent been struggling in the second half and there is literally no stat you can type to change that.

 

Our offense has not put up a good complete game since Pitt and KC.  They either start strong and struggle second half, or they start terrible and move then move the ball second half and get a lot of FGs.  
 

So sorry, no disrespect, but just like in your completely off base “injuries are not an excuse thread”, you are again poorly using stat totals with no context to make an incorrect point.  

[Big Turk]

16 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

You say things “even while struggling” while arguing with anyone suggesting the offense is struggling in multiple threads.
 

The offense is very much struggling, and your cherry picking of stats to mask that won’t change that.  I mean it’s not even up for debate.  You again are using general stats with no context to make an incorrect conclusion, just like your injury thread you created.
 

Feels like your new favorite thing to do is to use totals without context.  For example, while you want to say what we average over a full game, you fail to realize a lot of those points and production have come in the first half the past 5 games with the one exception of the Browns game.
 

We ONLY have 2 TDs in the second half of the past 5 games.  We were first in the league in point differential in the second half up through the bye week.  We have been one of the worst since then.  
 

You dont win football games in the first half or staring at game totals to make the picture look more rosey.  You win football games getting the job done to close out games.  And we have 1 million percent been struggling in the second half and there is literally no stat you can type to change that.

 

Our offense has not put up a good complete game since Pitt and KC.  They either start strong and struggle second half, or they start terrible and move then move the ball second half and get a lot of FGs.  
 

So sorry, no disrespect, but just like in your completely off base “injuries are not an excuse thread”, you are again poorly using stat totals with no context to make an incorrect point.  

 

No not really. Points are points no matter how you get them. While they were a good 2nd half team early in the year, they also were a meh first half team as well, often time going into the half tied with 10 or 13 points, then pulling away.

 

Now that it's reversed and they score a lot in the first half, it's suddenly some big issue? Why wasn't it an issue that they didn't score much in the first half early in the year?

 

They look disjointed at times and haven't played their best, but they are still scoring points. Something that didn't happen last year when they looked this way.

 

They have 0 games with under 17 points this year versus 4 last year and 2 games with 351 yards or less versus 7 last year. 

 

We quickly forget that last year we looked far worse at times. They will figure it out. 

 

It's also never a bad thing to face adversity and learn how to overcome it in different ways during the regular season. Especially as you continue to win while doing so. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Big Turk

[Flipnmi]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Stupidity is sad. So is trolling. 

 

One is involved here.

I fully agree!  Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but fortunately I trust that the Pegulas and Brandon Beane are far more rational than the posters that think change is the answer for everything. I have full confidence that the vast majority of Bills fans want McDermott to have a Mike Tomlin type run in Buffalo and I fully suspect he may.  Of course there's some reasons for concern at this point based on some very average performances in the last 5 games, but last year at this time we were 7-4, would lose the 2 of next 3 games to drop to 8-6.  Yet somehow posters claim this was our best chance to win the Superbowl and we're now doomed this year at 8-3.  I suggest everyone calms down and wait to the season is over before making any judgements against this mythical state of perfection that some expect.  However I also know that some folks are just not wired to be able to do this, but just very thankful that I am not one of them. 

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

No not really. Points are points no matter how you get them. While they were a good 2nd half team early in the year, they also were a meh first half team as well, often time going into the half tied with 10 or 13 points, then pulling away.

 

Now that it's reversed and they score a lot in the first half, it's suddenly some big issue? Why wasn't it an issue that they didn't score much in the first half early in the year?

 

They look disjointed at times and haven't played their best, but they are still scoring points. Something that didn't happen last year when they looked this way.

 

They have 0 games with under 17 points this year versus 4 last year and 2 games with 351 yards or less versus 7 last year. 

 

We quickly forget that last year we looked far worse at times. They will figure it out. 

Im not saying they won’t figure it out.  I’m saying stop trying to mask they are struggling because they clearly are.
 

5 weeks ago during the bye week, Allen was a runaway MVP candidate, would have been unanimous. 4 weeks ago he was tied with Mahomes.  3 weeks ago, he was second to Mahomes.  2 weeks ago he was 4th behind Mahomes, Tua, and Hill.  Now he isn’t even mentioned.

 

Why is that?  Because Allen and the offense have been struggling.  Allen is a stud, easily my favorite player of all time.  But remaining unbiased, it’s fair to say he’s been struggling with consistency and so has the offense, even before Allens injury.  
 

And going back to last year, we had a very successful and seasoned OC who was here to “figure it out”.  Now we have a rookie OC who has not been able to adapt to opposing defense getting film on his offense and figuring out how to disrupt it.  He has been terrible in both scheme and play calling in the second half of games as well.  
 

There is a lot of professional analysis out there showing the issues with Dorsey’s offense.  His inability to find consistency is concerning, especially in his inability to scheme guys open.  In fact, that is the absolute biggest issue with this offense right now is getting our receivers open consistently.  And that starts with his offense design and scheme.  More puzzling is the fast start Devin and the run game get off too frequently, just to see him go away from it in the 2nd half.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Careful what you wish for...heard a lot of people say the same thing about Daboll...now look, Dorsey sucks and the offense is no where near what it was the first half the season before teams got tape on Dorsey and figured him out.  

 

You don’t recall the exact same thing happening 12 months ago? Daboll’s offense being figured out after a sluggish game against the Dolphins, and losses to the Jags and Colts?

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

You don’t recall the exact same thing happening 12 months ago? Daboll’s offense being figured out after a sluggish game against the Dolphins, and losses to the Jags and Colts?

 

 

Yeah, and seasoned Daboll figured it out.  We have a rookie OC who’s not proven he can yet.  Dorsey is a concern until he shows he can adjust, which he hasn’t yet.  I hold out hope he does, but I’ve yet to see it and the film shows he’s not adjusting to what the defense is showing him. 
 

So until I see him do it, I’m going to remain concerned.  If Daboll was here, I’d be less concerned.

[Billever76]

6 hours ago, Utah John said:

Last year was THE year, and three of the main coaches blew it against KC.  The special teams coach didn't order a squib kickoff, and Frazier didn't handle the 13 seconds at all reasonably.  Can't put the 13 seconds, or the game, on the offense.  But overall it was McDermott who didn't step in at any point to get the Bills ready.

 

With their best chance gone, I've been just watching this season with the expectation that they'd be a good strong team.  The defensive injuries have been enormous, and the rookie OC has been figured out.  There are too many plays this year where the opponent defense is just waiting for the play they know is coming.  

 

They still have a very strong roster, and their DC is outstanding.  So they'll be competitive in every game and win twice as many as they lose.  For decades on end, either of those accomplishments would have seemed like a miracle.  Enjoy what we have and approach this year as if the Bills are one of the top teams, but  just accept that this was their year to get all the injuries at once that they didn't get the previous couple.  All the pre-season hype was about the team they started the year with.  That team isn't available anymore, and the injured players aren't coming back fast enough to get things right.

 

As for getting rid of McD, you have GOT to be kidding.  How on earth do you think that makes the team better?  This is his first HC job and he's steadily improving year on year.  

2020 was this coaching staffs peak..good enough for consistent playoffs but not good enough to make a superbowl let alone winning one imo

58 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Im not saying they won’t figure it out.  I’m saying stop trying to mask they are struggling because they clearly are.
 

5 weeks ago during the bye week, Allen was a runaway MVP candidate, would have been unanimous. 4 weeks ago he was tied with Mahomes.  3 weeks ago, he was second to Mahomes.  2 weeks ago he was 4th behind Mahomes, Tua, and Hill.  Now he isn’t even mentioned.

 

Why is that?  Because Allen and the offense have been struggling.  Allen is a stud, easily my favorite player of all time.  But remaining unbiased, it’s fair to say he’s been struggling with consistency and so has the offense, even before Allens injury.  
 

And going back to last year, we had a very successful and seasoned OC who was here to “figure it out”.  Now we have a rookie OC who has not been able to adapt to opposing defense getting film on his offense and figuring out how to disrupt it.  He has been terrible in both scheme and play calling in the second half of games as well.  
 

There is a lot of professional analysis out there showing the issues with Dorsey’s offense.  His inability to find consistency is concerning, especially in his inability to scheme guys open.  In fact, that is the absolute biggest issue with this offense right now is getting our receivers open consistently.  And that starts with his offense design and scheme.  More puzzling is the fast start Devin and the run game get off too frequently, just to see him go away from it in the 2nd half.  

To be fair Allen is playing though an Injury that probably sidelines every other qb in the league for a month

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, Billever76 said:

To be fair Allen is playing though an Injury that probably sidelines every other qb in the league for a month

I get that, but the offensive woes in the second half pre date Allens injury by 3 full games.  GB, Jets, Vikings (he got hurt on 3rd to last play of game against Vikings).

 

I think it’s more Dorsey than Allen.  Yes Allen has made some poor decisions, he’s also been pressing because we aren’t consistently scheming WRs open enough.  
 

Dorsey has relied WAY too much on the receivers winning their individual battles rather than scheming plays to get them open the way Daboll did, KC does, etc.  

 

I’m not worried about Allen at all, I am worried about Dorsey until I see it on the field though.  

[Big Turk]

56 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I get that, but the offensive woes in the second half pre date Allens injury by 3 full games.  GB, Jets, Vikings (he got hurt on 3rd to last play of game against Vikings).

 

I think it’s more Dorsey than Allen.  Yes Allen has made some poor decisions, he’s also been pressing because we aren’t consistently scheming WRs open enough.  
 

Dorsey has relied WAY too much on the receivers winning their individual battles rather than scheming plays to get them open the way Daboll did, KC does, etc.  

 

I’m not worried about Allen at all, I am worried about Dorsey until I see it on the field though.  

 

I agree with this...just because you have Superman playing QB doesn't mean you don't give him some plays when all he needs is to be Clark Kent.

 

Also...where has the free access RPO throw to Diggs gone?? It's still there but almost never used anymore.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Big Turk

[BillsFanSD]

19 hours ago, Chaos said:

McDermott does not appear to be a great game day coach.  More than one of his losses has reached the level of epic NFL game meltdown.  He very well may have missed his opportunity with HIS 13 seconds collapse. 

At first I was kind of appreciative that you were laying out pros and cons -- everybody has things that they can improve upon, after all.  But by any objective standard, McDermott is an very good game day coach.  The Bills are one of the best teams in the league on fourth-down decisions, he doesn't waste TOs, doesn't habitually make pointless challenges, and works the clock well.  

 

If you want to see bad game day coaching, watch the Broncos or Chargers.  Or Lions.

 

There are things that annoy me about McDermott, like his unwillingness to share meaningful information with the media.  But IMO he's the best HC the Bills have ever had.  He probably would have won at least one SB with Levy's rosters.

Edited November 26, 2022 by BillsFanSD

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

A 61 year sample, suggests is pretty significant and is a bit silly to dismiss as "coincidence".  In this case it actually goes past correlation and advances to causation.  When NFL owners have their Franchise QB in place, they don't often give coaches many many years to get the team a championship. 

As my first post said quite clearly, "past is not prologue".   But ignoring history as irrelevant rarely serves anyone well.  Only 23 Franchises have won Super Bowls. 25 % of those teams won after making a coaching change, after the Franchise QB was in place:

1. Miami Dolphins draft Bob Griese #4 overall in 1967.  By 1970, team moves on from HC George Wilson to Don Shula.  By 1972 they win the championship.
2. Washington Redskins. Joe Theisman becomes the Redskins starting QB in 1978. Redskins move on from seven year tenured George Allen, and name Jack Pardee as coach. Pardee let go after three seasons.  Joe Gibbs comes in and delivers a championship in year 3
3. New York Giants:  Phill Simms drafted in 1979.  Plays under Ray Perkins without significant team success until 1982.  Bill Parcells comes in in 1983.  Championship delivered by 1986.  
4. Denver Broncos.  Hired Dan Reeves in 1981.  Drafted John Elway in 1983.  Stuck with Reeves until 1992 without ever winning a championhsip.  Replaced Reeves with Wade Phillips. Phillips got 3 seasons until 1994, without winning a championship. Went to Mike Shanahan, who brought home the Championship with John Elway in 1997.   The 11 year no championship run with Reeves is a model teams most don't seem to want to replicate. 
5. Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning drafted in 1998. Jim Mora is the head coach. Has a 13-3 season in 1999.  Lost in the playoffs. Let go after the 2001 season.  Tony Dungy brought in. Delivers championship in year 4. 
6. Green Bay Packers - Packers had both Brett Farve and Aaron Rodgers on their roster from 2000-2006 and were coached by Mike Sherman with some success. But the Packers went in a different direction in 2006 and replaced Sherman with Mike McCarthy. by 2008, Aarron Rodgers was the starter, and in his third season as a starter the packers hoisted the Lombardi trophy. 
   
   These are the stories of teams who made a coaching change after the franchise QB was in place, and won the Super Bowl. 
   
   Of course the story of the winners doesn't tell the story of the teams who never won. Along with Dan Reeves, Marty Shottenheimer, Jeff Fisher, and Marvin Lewis provide the cautionary tales of the downside of  coaching "continuity".
   
    

 

Whatever happened before the salary cap is completely irrelevant and only a historical footnote in comparison.  Colts success was underwhelming considering what they had on offense.  Packers never lived up to expectations in the last decade, went defense over offense often and banked on Rodgers since he became starter in 2008 on offense (BTW...he was not on team from 2000-2004).    

 

Besides, the players are predominantly Gen Z and later Millennial types.  They don't respond to the coaching of guys like some of those referenced above.  It's why McD preached "trust the process" to gain some sort of support when he had little in the track record area.    

 

There's nothing wrong with doing trend analysis, but it really doesn't begin until around late 00's/early 10's when offensive production became the key to winning in the NFL.  It's noteworthy that 4 of the last 5 HC's to win the SB came from the offensive side of the ball, with the lone exception being Belichick.  Before him it was Pete Carroll in 2013.  

 

Speaking of Carroll, they found themselves a QB with Russell Wilson, but made sure to go defense heavy.  Eventually, that defense got older/more expensive and their run as a contender ended.  He's probably the closest comp to McD, who loves him more defense but can't seem to figure out what to do with a franchise QB.  

[Dopey]

18 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

You'd have to be a giant idiot to fire McDermott and look into another coach right now.  

We have some here. 

[Don Otreply]

18 hours ago, Billever76 said:

I lost all confidence in this coaching staff to win us a superbowl after the 13s debacle......I would gladly embrace a change but not for any unknown coach and assistants....it would have to be a clear upgrade

I'd take a coaching staff of

Payton HC

Reich OC 

I know I'm gonna get flamed for this but idc lol

 

REX RYAN DC

  Rex Ryan? Bwahahahahaha, did you notice what he did to the Bills defense last time he was here? Sexy Rexy hasn’t been relevant since before the jets fired him. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[ColoradoBills]

20 hours ago, Chaos said:

The Case for Keeping Sean McDermott forever
 

1. The Bills have historical had some incredibly bad head coaches.  Lots of them. For many years.  Sean McDermott is a very good head coach, probably top 10 in the NFL currently.  No sane organziation would risk going backwards to the days of Kay Stephenson or even Rex Ryan.  
    
2. McDermott is arguably the greatest build of espirit de corp in the modern NFL.  The Bills are a team, built to win together or lose together. He has embraced the concept of the Bills mafia to make the team the NFL's version of "La Cosa Nostra" (our thing).  He is not going to cast aside a Leslie Frazier or hire an OC from outside the Bills organization. It is just not fathomable. He isn't going to instantly insert a new player (see Hines) into the rotation until he has passed his initiation. I don't follow other NFL teams as carefully as I do the Bills, but I feel confident in saying the Bills have the best team chemistry in the NFL. 
    
3. Most weeks the Bills come to the games ready to play.   They seem focused and like they have a plan each week.  When the plan clicks they dominate. 
    
4. Coach McDermott is passionate and wants to succeed. He does not seem like the paycheck is the main motivation, he wants to win. 
    

The Case for Considering a Coaching Change

 

1. Josh Allen is really good. It is actually hard to imagine missing the playoffs with any credible NFL coach with Josh Allen as your QB.   Virtually no QB at Allen's level is home watching the playoffs the first week. McDermott is not a necessary ingredient to making the playoffs. 
    
2. History is not on McDermott's side. Since 1960 only one time has a coaching/QB combo appeared in their first championship game after their fourth season together (Ken Stabler/John Madden, 1978).  It has never happened in the free agency era. Past is not prologue, but it is probably worth understanding this dynamic. It is worth noting, that on numerous occasions after a team had its franchise QB in place, making a coaching change led to a Super Bowl appearance. 
    
3. McDermott does not appear to be a great game day coach.  More than one of his losses has reached the level of epic NFL game meltdown.  He very well may have missed his opportunity with HIS 13 seconds collapse. 
    
4. In public he does not own the mistakes. He more or loss always blames problems on the "execution" of his obviously correct decisions.   (should be noted 100% of all NFL coaches expect 100% of the callls they make to work if perfectly executed). 
    
5. McDermott seems to want to win his way.  Winning his way seems more important than simply winning.  (random movie analogy - McDermott is Roy "tin cup" Mcvoy (Kevin Costner) the lovable character who loses the US Open in his attempt to reach the par five in 2. Bill Bellicheck is David Simms (Don Johnson), the unlikable guy who lays up and actually wins the US Open. 

 

The Dr. Jekyl / Mr. Hyde portion of the thread title, is because I fall into both camps.  A bit part of me wants to win or lose with these guys.  Another part of me just wants to win a super bowl, and not be emotionally connected to who the personnel who actually get the job done. 

 

The Pegula's are not getting rid of McDermott, nor should they.

You just need to live with it.

[Reks Ryan]

21 hours ago, Chaos said:

History is not on McDermott's side. Since 1960 only one time has a coaching/QB combo appeared in their first championship game after their fourth season together (Ken Stabler/John Madden, 1978).  It has never happened in the free agency era

That's an interesting fact.   Especially in the last 30 years since free agency, there probably have not even been many QB / head coaches that are even given the chance to stay together after 4 years without a championship appearance.    It's a small sample size. Usually 1 or the other would be replaced in less than 5 years. .   So Allen & McD are already an outlier.   

 

I imagine there are a handful of these pairs since the 80's.   The only 2 I can think of are Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis with the Bengals, and Andy Reid & McNabb with the Eagles.   I think it was McNabb's 6th year when the made it to the SB after several NFCCG losses.