Dr. Jekyl, Mr. Hyde review of the Sean McDermot

[Ta111]

3 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

They are second in scoring in the NFL.  Every team "leaves meat on the bone".  The Chiefs get sucked off weekly, playing the same game the Bills did yesterday,  making plays in the last second to win.   Get over it

Agreed. We have the second highest scoring team in the entire league. Those who think we should score on every possession are living in la la land.

[John from Riverside]

So I just wanna point out that defensive coaches tend to rely on their defenses as a rule
 

but

 

mcDee goes for it on fourth down a lot which is not something that defensive coaches normally do

[Mikie2times]

Awhile back I remember a thread about the Patriots run basically clouding peoples judgement. Almost as if that run forever skewed the reality of what you expect from a team and coach. Which in large part I agree with.

• Andy Reid won the Super Bowl 1 time in 17 playoff appearances
• Pete Carrol won the Super Bowl 1 time in 10 playoff appearances
• John Harbaugh won the Super Bowl 1 time in 8 playoff appearances
• Mike McCarthy won the Super Bowl 1 time in 10  playoff appearances
• Sean Payton won the Super Bowl 1 time in 9 playoff appearances 
• Mike Tomlin won the Super Bowl 1 time in 10  playoff appearances

Sean McVay, Doug Pederson, Bruce Arians, and Bill Belichick have much different stories ranging from too soon to tell, to lightning in a bottle, and perhaps the best of all time. None really are good for context outside of maybe McVay. 

 

Those are your recent SB winning coaches. As much as I hate to see the data, it is overwhelming in how common it is to be a bridesmaid in this thing. Most SB winning coaches will experience 10 playoff losses for every one title. It's the SB lottery and you only increase your chances of hitting it by getting to the playoffs. Very logical, but not something I want to accept because OP, I feel you as far as often thinking McDermott can't take us the distance but most of them couldn't, until they did. It's just the way this thing tends to go.   

Edited November 26, 2022 by KzooMike

[Beast]

McDermott led the Bills to a playoff appearance with Tyrod Taylor as his QB and an organization that was trying to tank a season for draft picks.

 

We should remember that.

[Ya Digg?]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

The Case for Keeping Sean McDermott forever
 

1. The Bills have historical had some incredibly bad head coaches.  Lots of them. For many years.  Sean McDermott is a very good head coach, probably top 10 in the NFL currently.  No sane organziation would risk going backwards to the days of Kay Stephenson or even Rex Ryan.  
    
2. McDermott is arguably the greatest build of espirit de corp in the modern NFL.  The Bills are a team, built to win together or lose together. He has embraced the concept of the Bills mafia to make the team the NFL's version of "La Cosa Nostra" (our thing).  He is not going to cast aside a Leslie Frazier or hire an OC from outside the Bills organization. It is just not fathomable. He isn't going to instantly insert a new player (see Hines) into the rotation until he has passed his initiation. I don't follow other NFL teams as carefully as I do the Bills, but I feel confident in saying the Bills have the best team chemistry in the NFL. 
    
3. Most weeks the Bills come to the games ready to play.   They seem focused and like they have a plan each week.  When the plan clicks they dominate. 
    
4. Coach McDermott is passionate and wants to succeed. He does not seem like the paycheck is the main motivation, he wants to win. 
    

The Case for Considering a Coaching Change

 

1. Josh Allen is really good. It is actually hard to imagine missing the playoffs with any credible NFL coach with Josh Allen as your QB.   Virtually no QB at Allen's level is home watching the playoffs the first week. McDermott is not a necessary ingredient to making the playoffs. 
    
2. History is not on McDermott's side. Since 1960 only one time has a coaching/QB combo appeared in their first championship game after their fourth season together (Ken Stabler/John Madden, 1978).  It has never happened in the free agency era. Past is not prologue, but it is probably worth understanding this dynamic. It is worth noting, that on numerous occasions after a team had its franchise QB in place, making a coaching change led to a Super Bowl appearance. 
    
3. McDermott does not appear to be a great game day coach.  More than one of his losses has reached the level of epic NFL game meltdown.  He very well may have missed his opportunity with HIS 13 seconds collapse. 
    
4. In public he does not own the mistakes. He more or loss always blames problems on the "execution" of his obviously correct decisions.   (should be noted 100% of all NFL coaches expect 100% of the callls they make to work if perfectly executed). 
    
5. McDermott seems to want to win his way.  Winning his way seems more important than simply winning.  (random movie analogy - McDermott is Roy "tin cup" Mcvoy (Kevin Costner) the lovable character who loses the US Open in his attempt to reach the par five in 2. Bill Bellicheck is David Simms (Don Johnson), the unlikable guy who lays up and actually wins the US Open. 

 

The Dr. Jekyl / Mr. Hyde portion of the thread title, is because I fall into both camps.  A bit part of me wants to win or lose with these guys.  Another part of me just wants to win a super bowl, and not be emotionally connected to who the personnel who actually get the job done. 

What does “winning his way” even mean?? Provide examples of this.

 

Also, your movie analogy is terrible-neither guy wins in the end! The guy got a par and needed a birdie

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Careful what you wish for...heard a lot of people say the same thing about Daboll...now look, Dorsey sucks and the offense is no where near what it was the first half the season before teams got tape on Dorsey and figured him out.  

 

 

No disrespect, but you couldn't have listed a more irrelevant point with this one.  History has no significance what so ever in regards to what McD and Allen do or don't do together.  Any correlation would merely be a coincidence.

 

Are you sure about those statements regarding Daboll/Dorsey?

 

Food for thought...

 

The Bills had 351 yards or less offensively 7 times last year. They have 2 instances this year.

 

The Bills scored less than 17 points 4 times last year. They have 0 instances this year.

 

Facts don't really support your assertions. Most likely you have recency bias which makes Dorsey's "poor" games, which were better than Daboll's "poor" games, look worse due to being fresher in your mind.

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Big Turk

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Billever76 said:

I lost all confidence in this coaching staff to win us a superbowl after the 13s debacle......I would gladly embrace a change but not for any unknown coach and assistants....it would have to be a clear upgrade

I'd take a coaching staff of

Payton HC

Reich OC 

I know I'm gonna get flamed for this but idc lol

 

REX RYAN DC

 

McD coaching win percentage .611, Peyton. 68, not a huge difference.  Peyton also had a number of bad years in there too.  Coaches for the most part hire assistants they've worked with prior.  Did Peyton work with Reich, if not probably won't happen.

Having said all that, assuming the Bills don't win the SB, wouldn't be shocked to see the team get rid of Dorsey and would maybe bring in a guy like Reich as OC.  Think the issue with Dorsey is he's an ex QB who has pretty much just coached QB's till this season.  That combo seems to make Dorsey too pass happy.  Can see him being the mad professor type scheming up exotic pass plays for Allen and not spending enough time on run game.  Reich is also an ex QB, but has embraced the run game in Indy.

[Charles Romes]

Kay Stephenson refused to cash in his draft picks to save his job and instead prioritized the future of the team and drafted Bruce Smith, Andre Reed, Frank Reich and Derrick Burroughs (trending to perennial all pro before career ending injury) before getting fired. 

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

No one is advocating firing him RIGHT NOW.  The question becomes what do you do if they don’t win, or at least make it to, a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years.  What then?  You can’t let fear of alternatives prevent you from capitalizing on having Allen in his prime. Anything less than at least one championship is a huge failure - though I know there is a section of the fanbase that is scared of success.

 

McD has shown himself to be a fantastic program-builder.  But he has yet to show he can style a roster to the modern nfl.  He seems to need a LOT of resources to run his defense; meanwhile the offense has been neglected for years.  It’s not a sustainable strategy.

 

The Pegula's have some off-field issues going on and probably aren't paying close attention to the HC, but their quarter-billion dollar QB investment taking hits to keep drives going should alarm them about the HC and his roster construction/vision.  

[What a Tuel]

2 hours ago, Billever76 said:

I lost all confidence in this coaching staff to win us a superbowl after the 13s debacle......I would gladly embrace a change but not for any unknown coach and assistants....it would have to be a clear upgrade

I'd take a coaching staff of

Payton HC

Reich OC 

I know I'm gonna get flamed for this but idc lol

 

REX RYAN DC

 

If you want Payton, be prepared to miss the playoffs 40% of the time at least with Drew Brees as his QB all of those years. With a much smaller sample size, McDermott misses the playoffs 20% of the time with the one and only time being Josh Allen's rookie year. 

 

You guys drool over Payton but if McDermott had his record, you'd kick him out the door. 

[pennstate10]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

The Case for Keeping Sean McDermott forever
 

1. The Bills have historical had some incredibly bad head coaches.  Lots of them. For many years.  Sean McDermott is a very good head coach, probably top 10 in the NFL currently.  No sane organziation would risk going backwards to the days of Kay Stephenson or even Rex Ryan.  
    
2. McDermott is arguably the greatest build of espirit de corp in the modern NFL.  The Bills are a team, built to win together or lose together. He has embraced the concept of the Bills mafia to make the team the NFL's version of "La Cosa Nostra" (our thing).  He is not going to cast aside a Leslie Frazier or hire an OC from outside the Bills organization. It is just not fathomable. He isn't going to instantly insert a new player (see Hines) into the rotation until he has passed his initiation. I don't follow other NFL teams as carefully as I do the Bills, but I feel confident in saying the Bills have the best team chemistry in the NFL. 
    
3. Most weeks the Bills come to the games ready to play.   They seem focused and like they have a plan each week.  When the plan clicks they dominate. 
    
4. Coach McDermott is passionate and wants to succeed. He does not seem like the paycheck is the main motivation, he wants to win. 
    

The Case for Considering a Coaching Change

 

1. Josh Allen is really good. It is actually hard to imagine missing the playoffs with any credible NFL coach with Josh Allen as your QB.   Virtually no QB at Allen's level is home watching the playoffs the first week. McDermott is not a necessary ingredient to making the playoffs. 
    
2. History is not on McDermott's side. Since 1960 only one time has a coaching/QB combo appeared in their first championship game after their fourth season together (Ken Stabler/John Madden, 1978).  It has never happened in the free agency era. Past is not prologue, but it is probably worth understanding this dynamic. It is worth noting, that on numerous occasions after a team had its franchise QB in place, making a coaching change led to a Super Bowl appearance. 
    
3. McDermott does not appear to be a great game day coach.  More than one of his losses has reached the level of epic NFL game meltdown.  He very well may have missed his opportunity with HIS 13 seconds collapse. 
    
4. In public he does not own the mistakes. He more or loss always blames problems on the "execution" of his obviously correct decisions.   (should be noted 100% of all NFL coaches expect 100% of the callls they make to work if perfectly executed). 
    
5. McDermott seems to want to win his way.  Winning his way seems more important than simply winning.  (random movie analogy - McDermott is Roy "tin cup" Mcvoy (Kevin Costner) the lovable character who loses the US Open in his attempt to reach the par five in 2. Bill Bellicheck is David Simms (Don Johnson), the unlikable guy who lays up and actually wins the US Open. 

 

The Dr. Jekyl / Mr. Hyde portion of the thread title, is because I fall into both camps.  A bit part of me wants to win or lose with these guys.  Another part of me just wants to win a super bowl, and not be emotionally connected to who the personnel who actually get the job done. 

This post is basically nonsense. 
 

Couple of points. 
1) There is no way of assessing whether or not the Bills have the best “team chemistry” in the NFL. But you know this for sure because ….. ?why?  Your “gut” says so?  Maybe that’s just a bad 7-11 burrito. 
 

2) 19 yr before McDermott. No playoffs. With McD. 3 of 4 yrs in playoffs. Yeah, let’s replace him with RexRyan. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Are you sure about those statements regarding Daboll/Dorsey?

 

Food for thought...

 

The Bills had 351 yards or less offensively 7 times last year. They have 2 instances this year.

 

The Bills scored less than 17 points 4 times last year. They have 0 instances this year.

 

Facts don't really support your assertions. Most likely you have recency bias which makes Dorsey's "poor" games, which were better than Daboll's "poor" games, look worse due to being fresher in your mind.

 

Guess you haven’t watched the past 5 games.  

[JohnNord]

5 hours ago, Chaos said:

The Case for Keeping Sean McDermott forever
 

1. The Bills have historical had some incredibly bad head coaches.  Lots of them. For many years.  Sean McDermott is a very good head coach, probably top 10 in the NFL currently.  No sane organziation would risk going backwards to the days of Kay Stephenson or even Rex Ryan.  
    
2. McDermott is arguably the greatest build of espirit de corp in the modern NFL.  The Bills are a team, built to win together or lose together. He has embraced the concept of the Bills mafia to make the team the NFL's version of "La Cosa Nostra" (our thing).  He is not going to cast aside a Leslie Frazier or hire an OC from outside the Bills organization. It is just not fathomable. He isn't going to instantly insert a new player (see Hines) into the rotation until he has passed his initiation. I don't follow other NFL teams as carefully as I do the Bills, but I feel confident in saying the Bills have the best team chemistry in the NFL. 
    
3. Most weeks the Bills come to the games ready to play.   They seem focused and like they have a plan each week.  When the plan clicks they dominate. 
    
4. Coach McDermott is passionate and wants to succeed. He does not seem like the paycheck is the main motivation, he wants to win. 
    

The Case for Considering a Coaching Change

 

1. Josh Allen is really good. It is actually hard to imagine missing the playoffs with any credible NFL coach with Josh Allen as your QB.   Virtually no QB at Allen's level is home watching the playoffs the first week. McDermott is not a necessary ingredient to making the playoffs. 
    
2. History is not on McDermott's side. Since 1960 only one time has a coaching/QB combo appeared in their first championship game after their fourth season together (Ken Stabler/John Madden, 1978).  It has never happened in the free agency era. Past is not prologue, but it is probably worth understanding this dynamic. It is worth noting, that on numerous occasions after a team had its franchise QB in place, making a coaching change led to a Super Bowl appearance. 
    
3. McDermott does not appear to be a great game day coach.  More than one of his losses has reached the level of epic NFL game meltdown.  He very well may have missed his opportunity with HIS 13 seconds collapse. 
    
4. In public he does not own the mistakes. He more or loss always blames problems on the "execution" of his obviously correct decisions.   (should be noted 100% of all NFL coaches expect 100% of the callls they make to work if perfectly executed). 
    
5. McDermott seems to want to win his way.  Winning his way seems more important than simply winning.  (random movie analogy - McDermott is Roy "tin cup" Mcvoy (Kevin Costner) the lovable character who loses the US Open in his attempt to reach the par five in 2. Bill Bellicheck is David Simms (Don Johnson), the unlikable guy who lays up and actually wins the US Open. 

 

The Dr. Jekyl / Mr. Hyde portion of the thread title, is because I fall into both camps.  A bit part of me wants to win or lose with these guys.  Another part of me just wants to win a super bowl, and not be emotionally connected to who the personnel who actually get the job done. 

The flawed logic that a lot of Bills fans is thinking coaches/players who have demonstrated a level of success are easily replaced.   

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, Chaos said:

I honestly have never heard an NFL coach make more excuses about being able to get ready than this recent sequence.  

That’s right you haven’t…because I don’t think anyone has ever played 3 away games in an 11 day span in nfl history 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

No one is advocating firing him RIGHT NOW.  The question becomes what do you do if they don’t win, or at least make it to, a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years.  What then?  You can’t let fear of alternatives prevent you from capitalizing on having Allen in his prime. Anything less than at least one championship is a huge failure - though I know there is a section of the fanbase that is scared of success.

 

McD has shown himself to be a fantastic program-builder.  But he has yet to show he can style a roster to the modern nfl.  He seems to need a LOT of resources to run his defense; meanwhile the offense has been neglected for years.  It’s not a sustainable strategy.

 

I agree at some point (and you are right it is 2-3 years) you have to ask the question if they can't get over the hump. The issue is then what do you do? Do you hire a rookie Head Coach? The latest offensive whiz kid in a headset.... or do you hire a proven winner (and how do you get one of those?) When I look at the last 2 or 3 hiring cycles and the hollowed out coaching pipeline it makes that change scarier than it should be. Even the Sean Payton idea (and I am a huge fan of his) had its drawbacks.... he has so many playoff meltdowns to teams the Saints were better than. I know some people will be less cautious than me on this point but when I think about what you do after McDermott it makes me more likely to keep McDermott. 

 

Agree on the roster build point. And that is on both of them - McDermott and Beane. They can't keep pouring resources into the defense while dumpster diving for offensive linemen and taking mid round draft fliers on receivers. They have gone for premium twice on offense post drafting Josh. They made Mitch Morse the best paid center in football when they signed him and they gave up a 1st rounder for Stefon Diggs. Both of those have paid off. They need to be willing to swing big on offense again. I questioned the choices in the spring of needing to have 4 well paid D Tackles when some of that money could have gone on offense.

[Utah John]

Last year was THE year, and three of the main coaches blew it against KC.  The special teams coach didn't order a squib kickoff, and Frazier didn't handle the 13 seconds at all reasonably.  Can't put the 13 seconds, or the game, on the offense.  But overall it was McDermott who didn't step in at any point to get the Bills ready.

 

With their best chance gone, I've been just watching this season with the expectation that they'd be a good strong team.  The defensive injuries have been enormous, and the rookie OC has been figured out.  There are too many plays this year where the opponent defense is just waiting for the play they know is coming.  

 

They still have a very strong roster, and their DC is outstanding.  So they'll be competitive in every game and win twice as many as they lose.  For decades on end, either of those accomplishments would have seemed like a miracle.  Enjoy what we have and approach this year as if the Bills are one of the top teams, but  just accept that this was their year to get all the injuries at once that they didn't get the previous couple.  All the pre-season hype was about the team they started the year with.  That team isn't available anymore, and the injured players aren't coming back fast enough to get things right.

 

As for getting rid of McD, you have GOT to be kidding.  How on earth do you think that makes the team better?  This is his first HC job and he's steadily improving year on year.  

[Danger Mouse]

I really like him. I think he's one of the good guys and he's got a really strong, brave winning mentality in the side. 

[JerseyBills]

You make some valid and well thought out points. So I respect you for that but I absolutely disagree that McD should be anywhere near fired. I'd even double down and give him another 5 year extension 

 

The points about Allen- there's a reason he has a QB coach and OC and if anything,  the blame falls on them and not the HC who carefully built 17 into the best QB in the game after a horrendous rookie year. 

 

We only had elite Allen for 2.5 years. 

 

The culture McDermott built is second to none in the NFL.

Bottom line 

[Clark Rotary]

10 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

I think Chris Brown said it today - through travel, weather disruptions, and team illness issues, the Bills had maybe 1 or 2 days of full practice in the last 10 days. And McD got this team up to play and win both games. 
 

And yet, more complaints.

Yep!  I think coaching is 80% boring, background, details, process and laying up when needed ala tin cup analogy, and McD gets every ounce out of his team for this 80%. One of the reasons I developed a dislike of Belichick is his ability to create oxygen depriving game plans, that are painful to watch unless you find yourself through birth or choice on the dark side.  

 

If the other 20% is game-day brilliance, creativity and reacting to the unexpected, he's still evolving and was probably better paired with Daboll who was a bit of a mad scientist.  I'm still enjoying the ride and want to see what's around the next bend.  

 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

This post’s premise is so flawed.  There’s no debate where the options are keep McD forever or consider replacing him.  Obviously if something happens like we miss the playoffs a couple years in a row or have 2-3 straight wildcard exits he’ll be a goner.  His supporters won’t say “I was a keep McD forever guy”.

 

What I’m tired of is being 8-3 and Bills fans saying we have no shot THIS year all because we’re in a slump (if you really want to call a 3-2 stretch a slump) that is so obviously caused by a glut of injuries that will heal.