Week 13: Bills at Pats on TNF

[Low Positive]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did they actually practice today?

Walk-through

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

9 against Detroit was high, 4.5 seems low. I think a lot of people are over emphasizing the V.M. injury. If there is one QB the Bills can beat w/o Miller, it is Jones. Jones is atrocious so far against the blitz. If the Bills can send people and hurry him, Jones will make mistakes. Looking for Milano, Edmunds, Johnson, and Hamlin to be blitzing from all angles. I am going to go out on a limb and say Elam gets a sack.  

I agree but playing Klein in 4-3 on early downs to kill the run is a must to force them to throw. We can't be giving up 4/5 yds a carry for 1st downs.

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Disagree, it takes away pass rushers and/or allows Josh to better see where the pressure is coming from. Also allows more weapons in space for him to identify and quickly get the ball to. Im willing to bet we see a decent amount of spread offense. We will see tomorrow night. 

Going 4WR takes away pass rushers?  How so?  
 

what it does is take the TE off the field and leaves quessenberry or Brown on an island with Judon.  

Just now, nosejob said:

I agree but playing Klein in 4-3 on early downs to kill the run is a must to force them to throw. We can't be giving up 4/5 yds a carry for 1st downs.

The pats don’t have a good run game….. we don’t need 3 LBs to stop them.

[PaattMaann]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Going 4WR takes away pass rushers?  How so?  
 

what it does is take the TE off the field and leaves quessenberry or Brown on an island with Judon.  

 

4 and especially 5 wide limits blitzing possibilities/where free rushers can come from. This is a major reason colleges use spread offenses, to help QBs. 

 

5 offensive linemen and three or four down linemen on D doesn't necessarily leave anyone on an island with Judon. In fact I would expect them to have 2 men dedicated to him a lot, regardless of formation.

 

4 Wide also leaves the RB in to help chip on Judon/1 on 1 pass rusher. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by PaattMaann

[Airseven]

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the offense can muster 20 points.

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Morse is playing.  Quentin Morris is questionable, illness.  I think he'll play too.

 

Morris has been a 12-20 snaps on offense a game kind of guy, except vs. Pitt (when he played for Knox) and Cleveland (when we played a very high number of heavy sets, including 2 TE sets).

 

You may be right that he's active, especially as he's also a full-time STer. 

 

I was kind of hoping to see him as a WR #5, especially since I thought he looked pretty good against Pittsburgh when he got his chance - would have had a nice TD if the ball hadn't hit the DB in the leg on the way to his hands - or in heavy sets as vs. Detroit.

 

But with him being out so much, thinking we won't see that.

 

I just don't want to see empty sets when we can't pass protect worth beans.

[Patrick Duffy]

8 minutes ago, Airseven said:

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the offense can muster 20 points.

 

You must be stuck on the way back machine with Tyrod at QB

[DapperCam]

Both teams top 5 in defensive DVOA. Might be a low scoring affair.

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Morris has been a 12-20 snaps on offense a game kind of guy, except vs. Pitt (when he played for Knox) and Cleveland (when we played a very high number of heavy sets, including 2 TE sets).

 

You may be right that he's active, especially as he's also a full-time STer. 

 

I was kind of hoping to see him as a WR #5, especially since I thought he looked pretty good against Pittsburgh when he got his chance - would have had a nice TD if the ball hadn't hit the DB in the leg on the way to his hands - or in heavy sets as vs. Detroit.

 

But with him being out so much, thinking we won't see that.

 

I just don't want to see empty sets when we can't pass protect worth beans.

Yeah, I could see us running a lot more 2 TE sets this week.  Since Dion is out, and one area to attack the Pats in the passing game is their LBs.

 

Won't be surprised to see Sweeney active too, if our gameplan is to deploy TEs more this week.

[Golden]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

Dawkins and miller put

Morse questionable 

I believe Morse is good to go

[NewEra]

25 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

4 and especially 5 wide limits blitzing possibilities/where free rushers can come from. This is a major reason colleges use spread offenses, to help QBs. 

 

5 offensive linemen and three or four down linemen on D doesn't necessarily leave anyone on an island with Judon. In fact I would expect them to have 2 men dedicated to him a lot, regardless of formation.

 

4 Wide also leaves the RB in to help chip on Judon/1 on 1 pass rusher. 

Blitzing opportunities……I’m not talking about blitzing.  I don’t see why anyone would blitz us tbh.  Our OL can barely block 4 men with 5.  

The problem with keeping our rb in to block, the RB is the guy that is in a mismatch with the Pats slow LB-  I think chipping with the TE is a much more efficient strat.  
 

agree to disagree.
 

last year when we went 5 wide, we got destroyed.  We stopped doing that in week 3-4 because it was so bad

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

12 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Both teams top 5 in defensive DVOA. Might be a low scoring affair.

 

 

Bills need to play it safe. Not turn the ball over. Play good field position. Play good ST. And get points when they can. No shame in scoring like 4 FG’s, and winning this 19-10.

[newcam2012]

31 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Going 4WR takes away pass rushers?  How so?  
 

what it does is take the TE off the field and leaves quessenberry or Brown on an island with Judon.  

The pats don’t have a good run game….. we don’t need 3 LBs to stop them.

The Pats offense is poor statistically in both passing and running. Their red zone efficiency is worst than Buffalo's. If the Pats have any chance to win its probably because if their defense. Allen and others have to protect the ball. Last game, the Pats offense looked good but I don't expect that kind of performance from Jones. Both of these coaches will have solid schemes since they know each other well. The difference maker in recent games has been Allen. Can't he be that guy with his current injury? 

4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Bills need to play it safe. Not turn the ball over. Play good field position. Play good ST. And get points when they can. No shame in scoring like 4 FG’s, and winning this 19-10.

I agree but I also think this kind of game favors the Pats too. They would love to play a slow grind out physical game. 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Pats offense is poor statistically in both passing and running. Their red zone efficiency is worst than Buffalo's. If the Pats have any chance to win its probably because if their defense. Allen and others have to protect the ball. Last game, the Pats offense looked good but I don't expect that kind of performance from Jones. Both of these coaches will have solid schemes since they know each other well. The difference maker in recent games has been Allen. Can't he be that guy with his current injury? 

I’m sure he’ll be that guy again.  Dunno if it this week with Dawkins out, but we’ll soon see

[John from Riverside]

35 minutes ago, Airseven said:

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the offense can muster 20 points.

Yes, because it’s not like we haven’t done that before against the patriots….oh wait

Edited November 30, 2022 by John from Riverside

[Greg S]

40 minutes ago, Airseven said:

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the offense can muster 20 points.

 

I agree Mac Jones and company will have a tough time scoring 20 against the Bills D. If the Bills don't turn the ball over, they might not get to 17.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Greg S

[buffblue]

1 hour ago, balln said:

Dawkins out makes me nervous 

Yep he is such an indispensable player for us. Dion has to be one of the most underrated tackles in the league

[PaattMaann]

16 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Blitzing opportunities……I’m not talking about blitzing.  I don’t see why anyone would blitz us tbh.  Our OL can barely block 4 men with 5.  

The problem with keeping our rb in to block, the RB is the guy that is in a mismatch with the Pats slow LB-  I think chipping with the TE is a much more efficient strat.  
 

agree to disagree.
 

last year when we went 5 wide, we got destroyed.  We stopped doing that in week 3-4 because it was so bad

 

RB chip and go out into the flats, motion RB out of backfield pre snap and get him in space on one of their 260 pound slow LBs...some good options there. We will see what they do tomorrow! 

[Bray Wyatt]

I wonder if this is why we got Hines, for matchups like this. Didnt want to give BB any tape on how we would use him, at least thats a hope of mine lol

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The difference maker in recent games has been Allen. Can't he be that guy with his current injury?

 

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m sure he’ll be that guy again.  Dunno if it this week with Dawkins out, but we’ll soon see

 

I think it's more than the elbow myself. I mean, don't get me wrong here....definitely would say the injury plays a part for sure. However I think it's something else also, possibly his confidence to a little drop and also Dorsey may have toned it down with some of the play calls during this time.

 

Reason why I say this is some of the passes from Josh (ex. 40 yd dart to Diggs where only Diggs could get it) where it seems to me the elbow isn't bothering him quite as much, which I'm extremely happy about.