THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Back to Back in Detroit

[Beck Water]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

There certainly seems to be a pattern to seasons for teams led by Sean McDermott:  Start better prepared and ahead of most teams, slump in mid-season as other teams improve, raise team toughness to finish the season strong.  The Bills’ 2022 season seems to be following the pattern.

 

The Bills beat the Lions 28-25 in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.  The Bills survived another sloppy second half performance, the hallmark of their 2022 slump.  Trailing by three with less than ten minutes left in the game, Josh Allen engineered a 90-yard touchdown drive (an Allen specialty) to take a three-point lead, their first offensive score of the half.  Were the Bills moving into phase three of the season?  Would they show that end-of-season toughness that wins games in December?   Well, no, not yet.  Tyler Bass missed the extra point, and the Bills defense failed again to make the stop to win the game.  The Lions tied the game with a ten-play, 42-yard drive and a 51-yard field goal with 23 seconds remaining in regulation. 

 

Now, it was time for the tough-as-nails Bills to emerge.  Less than three weeks earlier, the Bills needed a late score to beat the Jets.  Allen started a drive with a big throw to Diggs, but a penalty brought the ball back and the Bills didn’t recover.  The following week, an Allen fumble and an Allen interception gave the Vikings a win.  This time, either literally or figuratively, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs said to the rest of the offense, “We are not going to lose another one of these game.”  This time, everyone performed. 

 

On first down, Allen found Diggs with a throw that only Allen can make, and Diggs made a tough catch in heavy traffic for 36 yards.  No penalty this time.  The Bills took the first of their timeouts, Allen ran twice for 12 yards, the second on the first quarterback power sweep the Bills have run in weeks.  Credit Ken Dorsey for saving it for a time when they really needed it.  Bass redeemed himself with a 45-yard field goal to win the game. 

 

A few miscellaneous comments about the game:

 

1.     Tre’Davious White returned to the lineup a year after his knee injury.  He played only a few series and returned to the bench for the rest of the game.  The Bills continue to take his recovery slowly.  We can expect to see him on the field more against the Patriots.

2.    Without White but with Jordan Poyer back in the lineup, the Bills pass defense continued the mediocre run they’ve been on for several weeks.  The Lions had a lot of success in their mid-range game, managing to get separation that Jared Goff attacked with accurate throws.  Bills defenders often were a step behind and worse, they sometimes missed the tackle.  It’s not a coincidence that the Bills’ pass defense is struggling more while Tremaine Edmunds has been out.  A. J. Klein, a clever acquisition by Brandon Beane, filled in nicely, but he simply does not cover the ground that Edmunds does

3.    The pass defense also suffered from a less than spectacular pass rush from the front four.  The Bills missed Rousseau and Epenesa, and then they lost Von Miller to injury late in the first half.  Ed Oliver rose to the occasion with a sack for a safety and several other disruptive plays, and DaQuan Jones was a factor again.  Because the defensive backfield was giving Goff throwing opportunities, the rest of the defensive line was unable to get the coverage sacks they collected earlier in the season.

4.    I’ve been on Isaiah McKenzie all season long, but I have to give him his due this week.  He was outstanding against the Lions – solid route running and sure hands led to six receptions and a touchdown.  Great game

5.    Meanwhile, I’m amazed that James Cook continues to get playing time over Nyheim Hines.  Cook shows no creativity as a runner, and he is a disappointment in the passing attack.  He had one clear drop, an unfortunate bobble, and his route running caused a near interception.  Tony Romo explained it well – when the receiver shows the quarterback something, the receiver must stay with it.  Having gotten to the check-down zone, Cook cut right and then cut back left.  Allen threw on the first cut, and Cook unwittingly ran away from the ball which sailed almost all the way to a waiting linebacker. 

6.    Spencer Brown is scary inconsistent in pass protection.  He’s mobile, and he’s a scrapper, but defenders beat him often. 

7.    David Quessenberry has filled in nicely, first for Brown earlier in the season and for Dion Dawkins in the Lions game.  He’s been solid.

8.    Devin Singletary is a stud.  He needs a crease, and this offensive line sometimes doesn’t give him one, but he gets every yard that’s there, every time.  He’s quick, shifty, and tough.  It’s a pleasure to see the guy at work.

 

The Patriots game on Thursday has huge implications.  The Bills need it to keep pace with the Chiefs, Ravens, and Titans in the chase for the bye and home field.  And they need it to hold on to a share of the division lead.  The Pats are for real, with a really tough defense and an opportunistic offense.  Now’s the time for the Bills to raise the level of their play.  Now’s when they need people returning to the lineup. 

 

Welcome to December football.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

 

Good write-up, Shaw, enjoyed reading.  You nailed it about the Bills showing a pattern of a mid-season slump.  In 2020, I thought it was driven by Josh Allen's week 4 arm injury.  It seemed inexplicable last season, and lo and behold, here it is again.

 

Re: 3. I think you have it a bit backwards on cause and effect.  I saw it as the Bills being unable to bring disruptive pressure with 4 (and I don't think as many of their sacks were coverage sacks as you see, but they were definitely making the QB uncomfortable with 4 earlier in the season), the Bills started bringing 5 man pressures.  With that, for whatever reason, the Bills D apparently played their highest percentage of Man all season (Cosell goes into some of this stuff on One Bills Live here about 11 minutes in)

 

The problem with Man IMHO is that Dane Jackson, like Levi Wallace, is a reasonable quality off-ball corner.  He is not fast enough to stay with his guy long enough in Man, unless there's enough of a disruptive pass rush to help protect the backfield. 

 

That's how and why the Lions were picking on him.  That's why the Bills used a 1st round pick on Kaiir Elam - to improve their man coverage - but Elam is playing on an injured ankle, and he's "just learning".

 

Not sure I entirely agree with you about the solidity of Quessenberry at LT.  I thought he had an up-and-down game, some decent, some whiffs.  I thought Josh was feeling the pressure a bit after Dawkins went out and missed some plays where if he just gave it another tick or two he would have had a play.

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Good write-up, Shaw, enjoyed reading.  You nailed it about the Bills showing a pattern of a mid-season slump.  In 2020, I thought it was driven by Josh Allen's week 4 arm injury.  It seemed inexplicable last season, and lo and behold, here it is again.

 

Re: 3. I think you have it a bit backwards on cause and effect.  I saw it as the Bills being unable to bring disruptive pressure with 4 (and I don't think as many of their sacks were coverage sacks as you see, but they were definitely making the QB uncomfortable with 4 earlier in the season), the Bills started bringing 5 man pressures.  With that, for whatever reason, the Bills D apparently played their highest percentage of Man all season (Cosell goes into some of this stuff on One Bills Live here about 11 minutes in)

 

The problem with Man IMHO is that Dane Jackson, like Levi Wallace, is a reasonable quality off-ball corner.  He is not fast enough to stay with his guy long enough in Man, unless there's enough of a disruptive pass rush to help protect the backfield. 

 

That's how and why the Lions were picking on him.  That's why the Bills used a 1st round pick on Kaiir Elam - to improve their man coverage - but Elam is playing on an injured ankle, and he's "just learning".

 

Not sure I entirely agree with you about the solidity of Quessenberry at LT.  I thought he had an up-and-down game, some decent, some whiffs.  I thought Josh was feeling the pressure a bit after Dawkins went out and missed some plays where if he just gave it another tick or two he would have had a play.

Thanks for this.  It's really good.   

 

I didn't mean to say Q was a star.  I just think he's been about as reliable a backup tackle as you can expect to have.   He may not have been perfect, but he wasn't a problem.  

 

As for the pass D, I think you're absolutely right about Jackson.  Romo, because he just isn't very good, was talking about Jackson emerging as a star in the league, which was just absurd.   He is, as you say, in a league with Wallace.  He's a reliable number 2.  I was surprised late last season when the Bills survived as well as they with Jackson and Wallace.  

 

I hear you, too, about the pressure from the front four.   As we know, the Bills' approach is definitely a team approach, and they try to build on the skills of each other.   Without Rousseau, and then without Miller, the Bills were without their two most versatile defensive linemen - guys who are problems whenever they're out there because they can win in a lot of ways.   And Epenesa may actually be the third most valuable in that way.  Without them, each of the other guys has to be able to win more on his own, because he doesn't have the more athletic guys to create problem matchups.  

 

And I hinted at (notwithstanding the possibility that we'd start the endless conversation), but I think the defensive backs really suffer without Edmunds on the field.   My theory always has been that the entire defensive backfield gets a benefit from Edmunds, because his ability to occupy an unusually large zone in the middle allows everyone else to be responsible for a small zone.   I don't understand the part-zone-part-man concepts, but it seems to me that if I have a wideout man-to-man and Edmunds is playing zone in the middle, I know that the inside routes are a problem for the offense.  That is, if the wideout takes an inside release over the middle, he's going to find Edmunds there. And, in turn, it puts more pressure on Hamlin to be a factor in the pass defense, because he, too, ends up being responsible for more territory when Edmunds isn't there.   So, I think Edmunds is another factor, along with the less effective pass rush, that has made it easier for the QB to attack the two corners.    

 

We'll be seeing more of White, which almost certainly will have an effect.   If you're correct that they're playing more man, and may be forced to continue with that, then it will be interesting to see if Elam, or even Benford, takes over the other side, so that the Bills can have two guys being able to play press coverage.   In a perfect world, the Bills would get at least Rousseau and Epenesa back (if Miller has to sit until the playoffs, so be it), and I think Edmunds back will make a big difference, too.  

 

The bottom line is that the success of the Bills defense relies on the unique skills of certain players (Hyde, Poyer, Milano, Edmunds, White, Miller, and Rousseau), and those are exactly the guys who have been out of the lineup.  

 

 

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, as for receiving:   If all you're going to use him for is to stand in the flat and wait for a pass, you don't need to burn a second-round pick to have someone to do that.

Sorry, I meant as a back he lines up out of a running formation and, ideally, has a linebacker matched up with him or in zone. I didn't mean he lines up in the slot like that. It's about matchups; hopefully the D only as cornerbacks on the receivers and Cook finds some shallow open space where he can elude a linebacker for a big gain.

[NewEra]

22 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

I hear you about his pass-catching; it was a special trait of his in college and it's not happening right now. But I bet it will come. I disagree, however, on his runs; not everyone could make the same run and his longer ones — Singletary just doesn't have the wheels. But we shall see how it goes the rest of the way. I'm sure everyone would like to see more RB involvement as both runs and in the passing game. I really feel like Cook or Hines could just sit in the flats a lot of plays and catch a ball and get a big chunk of yardage in open space; linebackers just can't keep up. I don't believe Singletary has the same potential there.

Spends on the type of pass.  If it’s a swing and all you need is speed to the corner, you’re right, he doesn’t have the speed.  If it’s over the middle with the rb running n-s I’d rather have motor.  He’s far superior to both cook and Hines at making people miss. on Thursday, we weren’t making anyone miss all game.  Detroit did a very good job of tackling

[Beck Water]

41 minutes ago, Toledo Bill said:

Good points, maybe I was expecting a second rounder to be more of an impact player. Sometimes it takes more time.

 

I think it's one drafting pattern for Beane to take players in the 2nd round they perceive as having a high ceiling, but who will take time and development to reach it.  Epenesa is one of those, although I think the Bills  didn't expect it to take as long as it did.  Covid precluding OTAs his rookie off-season hurt Epenesa; the Bills asked him to lose weight and re-make his body, but they weren't able to offer him the hands-on off season support to do what they asked.

 

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, as for receiving:   If all you're going to use him for is to stand in the flat and wait for a pass, you don't need to burn a second-round pick to have someone to do that.  You can turn Stevenson into a running back and tell HIM to go stand out there.   There are plenty of fast guys around.   More importantly in a quality offense, guys have to be able to do more than stand and wait.  He's supposed to catch the ball on the run - he dropped on of those on Thursday.   He's supposed to catch the ball without bobbling it, so he has time to take off, and he bobbled on easy one on Thursday.   Those aren't skills a second-round pick should be developing over time.   He should have those.   Will he improve?   Maybe.   I hope so.

 

As for running:  Pretty much all he's shown between the tackles is if he has a good hole, he has the speed and acceleration to get through it.  The problem is that in the modern NFL, no offensive line creates holes like that.  Modern running plays often are designed with the expectation that the running back will actually beat a defender in the hole - he'll find a way to get past the unblocked linebacker or safety who's trying to fill the gap.  SIngletary excels at that - that's where his yardage comes from, and Cook has shown no ability to do that.   If he can't outrun a guy, he's going down.   So, sure, on the one running play in ten where there's a big hole in front of him, Cook will get you more yards than Singletary, because Cook's speed will allow him to outrun a tackler that Singletary can't.   But on the other nine, Cook gets stopped and Singletary gets a yard or two or five or ten more. 

 

Maybe I'm missing something you've discussed earlier, but there's more to being a running back than running between the tackles.  There's being fast enough to get to the outside, which it seemed demonstrated pretty conclusively last year Singletary just isn't.  Cook can, and then he can make people miss in the open field

 

Comparing with Stevenson - c'mon man.  He has yet to demonstrate (to me anyway) that he can follow his blockers in the open field, or that he can block like a WR downfield much less like an RB in pass protection.

 

Basically I think you're selling (what we've seen from Cook) short.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for this.  It's really good.   

 

👍

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't mean to say Q was a star.  I just think he's been about as reliable a backup tackle as you can expect to have.   He may not have been perfect, but he wasn't a problem.  

 

I can agree with that.  A big drop-off, not as big on the R as on the L, but generally servicable.

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As for the pass D, I think you're absolutely right about Jackson.  Romo, because he just isn't very good, was talking about Jackson emerging as a star in the league, which was just absurd.   He is, as you say, in a league with Wallace.  He's a reliable number 2.  I was surprised late last season when the Bills survived as well as they with Jackson and Wallace. 

 

Jackson and Wallace are both good zone corners.  I don't think off-ball corners are ever hailed as NFL stars.  I wonder if Romo was given a "talking point", or if there was some mix-up between Dane Jackson and Damar Hamlin (who I think does have potential to become a star in a DB-friendly system like the Bills)? 

 

When you hear an announcer saying some really weird stuff that doesn't match your eyeballs, it may be because they're given an agenda of talking points to follow.

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I hinted at (notwithstanding the possibility that we'd start the endless conversation), but I think the defensive backs really suffer without Edmunds on the field.   My theory always has been that the entire defensive backfield gets a benefit from Edmunds, because his ability to occupy an unusually large zone in the middle allows everyone else to be responsible for a small zone. 

 

I agree with this too.  I've never bought into the "Edmunds hate"

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

We'll be seeing more of White, which almost certainly will have an effect.   If you're correct that they're playing more man, and may be forced to continue with that, then it will be interesting to see if Elam, or even Benford, takes over the other side, so that the Bills can have two guys being able to play press coverage.   In a perfect world, the Bills would get at least Rousseau and Epenesa back (if Miller has to sit until the playoffs, so be it), and I think Edmunds back will make a big difference, too.

 

The bottom line is that the success of the Bills defense relies on the unique skills of certain players (Hyde, Poyer, Milano, Edmunds, White, Miller, and Rousseau), and those are exactly the guys who have been out of the lineup. 

 

Regarding more man, Greg Cosell said that the Bills played their highest % of man coverage on the season against Detroit.  Now whether that's in part because 2 practices in 2 weeks made it easier than shifting responsibilities around in zone, or whether it was dictated by the need for more pressure up front, I don't know.  We'll see what happens.

 

In 2020 when Milano was on IR with a torn pec then worked his way back on a snap count, Frazier pretty much said that Johnson-Edmunds-Milano work together in a pretty interchangeable way, and that with Milano out, they had to re-work the roles and responsibilities.  I think the problem with Edmunds out but two rookies at DB behind him and an inexperienced safety, there are limits to how much re-working can be done especially on a short week or one with only one practice.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Jackson and Wallace are both good zone corners.  I don't think off-ball corners are ever hailed as NFL stars.  I wonder if Romo was given a "talking point", or if there was some mix-up between Dane Jackson and Damar Hamlin (who I think does have potential to become a star in a DB-friendly system like the Bills)? 

 

When you hear an announcer saying some really weird stuff that doesn't match your eyeballs, it may be because they're given an agenda of talking points to follow.

 

 

 

Regarding more man, Greg Cosell said that the Bills played their highest % of man coverage on the season against Detroit.  Now whether that's in part because 2 practices in 2 weeks made it easier than shifting responsibilities around in zone, or whether it was dictated by the need for more pressure up front, I don't know.  We'll see what happens.

 

In 2020 when Milano was on IR with a torn pec then worked his way back on a snap count, Frazier pretty much said that Johnson-Edmunds-Milano work together in a pretty interchangeable way, and that with Milano out, they had to re-work the roles and responsibilities.  I think the problem with Edmunds out but two rookies at DB behind him and an inexperienced safety, there are limits to how much re-working can be done especially on a short week or one with only one practice.

These are great points. 

 

I agree, the announcers are given talking points, but I think either there's no script or Romo just ad libs.   And he isn't very good at ad libbing.  I find it hard to imagine that anyone asked to create talking points would flat-out make up stuff like Jackson is going to be a star in this league.   What possible substantiation is there for that?   Did someone with professional knowledge say it?  I doubt it.   I think it was Romo off script, and he wants to be enthusiastic and positive.    He was poorly prepared, and he doesn't have the knowledge of the players that I'd like from my expert.  I don't get the impression that Romo studies a whole lot of film.  

 

And your analysis of how the pass defense problem has morphed its way through the season as compensation is made for first one loss, then another, then another.   The coaches have been adjusting defensive strategies throughout the entire season.  No White and no Hyde.  Then no Poyer, then two rookie corners, then Milano up and down, then Poyer again, then Edmunds, Rousseau, and Epenesa.  And now Miller.   And now work White back in, then Edmunds.   

 

It's been an incredible roller coaster for a team running a true team defense.   The team defense can handle isolated injuries where the defense compensates for changes in skill at two or three positions, but it doesn't work as well when there's nearly constant substitution going on.   This week they're trying to figure out a new D line strategy with Miller gone and not knowing whether Rousseau or Epenesa will be back.  

 

And what you're really hoping for is that you can get them all back on the field by the middle of December (save Hyde, whom I'm sure is out) and get them used to playing the scheme they started the season with.   It's a real challenge.  

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

And your analysis of how the pass defense problem has morphed its way through the season as compensation is made for first one loss, then another, then another.   The coaches have been adjusting defensive strategies throughout the entire season.  No White and no Hyde.  Then no Poyer, then two rookie corners, then Milano up and down, then Poyer again, then Edmunds, Rousseau, and Epenesa.  And now Miller.   And now work White back in, then Edmunds.   

 

It's been an incredible roller coaster for a team running a true team defense.   The team defense can handle isolated injuries where the defense compensates for changes in skill at two or three positions, but it doesn't work as well when there's nearly constant substitution going on.   This week they're trying to figure out a new D line strategy with Miller gone and not knowing whether Rousseau or Epenesa will be back.  

 

And what you're really hoping for is that you can get them all back on the field by the middle of December (save Hyde, whom I'm sure is out) and get them used to playing the scheme they started the season with.   It's a real challenge.  

 

One upside of this brutal attrition-filled mess of a season is that it will have us fully prepared for the playoffs. The whole roster and coaching staff will be 100% focused and battle-tested and ready for anything the opponent throws at us. If everybody gets healthy we become a very dangerous team to face in January, one that is used to gutting out wins by any means necessary.