Gabe Davis - Getting a Bum Rap From Some Fans

[Nineforty]

Anyone who thinks that catch was super easy yesterday, watch it again. In real time and slow mo please.

 

Too many spoiled brats here. Too many people turning on players when we are efing 8-3. Never been more disappointed of the fanbase than i have been than this year. Pathetic. Not all of you of course. 

[Airseven]

Why do fans try to shield players from criticism? It’s odd.

[LyndonvilleBill]

I just think he needs to change his jersey #.😉

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:

Going into the season, a lot of the buzz about the offense was about Gabe Davis "taking the next step" and becoming a big time WR2. Now, a significant portion of fans say he is a disappointment. 

 

I think a fair expectation going into the season to be considered a top end WR2 would be a season with 60-70 receptions, 900-1,000 yards and 7-9 TDs. 

 

Davis missed 1 game due to injury, so in the 10 games he has played he now has 33 receptions, 650 yards and 5 TDs. How does that compare to expectations?

• He ranks #22 in receiving yards per game, and the only WR2s ahead of him are Waddle and Higgins.
• Only 10 WRs have more TDs
• At 65 yards per game, that extrapolates out to 1,105 over 17 games. If he averages 65/game the rest of the year, it would be 1,040 in 16 games.
• He has 5 TDs in 10 games played so if he keeps up that pace he will have 8 TDs.
• The receptions are lighter, he would end at 53 at 3.3/game

 

Yes, the drops are not good, but if you were asked before the beginning of the season would you take a 53-1,040-8 stat line for Davis this year? I am guessing almost everyone would, especially if you said Diggs was going to also have the year he's having. 

 

I have thought for a long time a lot of Bills fans overvalued Don Beebe, whose career highs with the Bills were 40 catches ('94) and 554 yards ('92). Davis is moving into undervalued territory.

 

Nobody is questioning his talent and ability, he's just wildly inconsistent which has what has plagued this offense this year in general with just about everyone outside of JA17 and Diggs.

 

If he can follow Knox's trajectory and truly move past the drops and inconsistency he'd be one of the more dangerous weapons in this league but until then you have to hold your breath every time the ball is thrown his way.

[Donuts and Doritos]

We had this same thread last week. He was 2nd worst catch % in the league (51%) & Tied for 3rd most dropped passes in the league. Those were his stats after last week's game, not sure if this week improved him much. 

[Mikie2times]

24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

When you have Josh Allen throwing the football.........you don't just want a pure slot receiver.......you want a two stud WR's who can play inside or out.    Then one of them is always in the slot in 3 WR sets and their route tree isn't limited from the slot because they can do it all.    This leaves the other boundary spot for a deep ball specialist like Gabe Davis.   

I don't disagree, much in the way we have seen Diggs used this year. That is what I would also prefer vs going after a pure slot WR. In this layout, we go back to a place where Davis and even McKenzie have much more value. We just can't afford to waste the arm talent. Getting a high end compliment to Diggs would make this offense lethal. 

[MJS]

His stats are decent because Josh Allen force feeds him the ball. But he drops the ball at one of the highest rates in the league and has not been good in contested catch situations.

 

Last year he was much better at both of those, so we know he can do it. I like him, but he needs to improve.

[RoscoeParrish]

1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:

Going into the season, a lot of the buzz about the offense was about Gabe Davis "taking the next step" and becoming a big time WR2. Now, a significant portion of fans say he is a disappointment. 

 

I think a fair expectation going into the season to be considered a top end WR2 would be a season with 60-70 receptions, 900-1,000 yards and 7-9 TDs. 

 

Davis missed 1 game due to injury, so in the 10 games he has played he now has 33 receptions, 650 yards and 5 TDs. How does that compare to expectations?

• He ranks #22 in receiving yards per game, and the only WR2s ahead of him are Waddle and Higgins.
• Only 10 WRs have more TDs
• At 65 yards per game, that extrapolates out to 1,105 over 17 games. If he averages 65/game the rest of the year, it would be 1,040 in 16 games.
• He has 5 TDs in 10 games played so if he keeps up that pace he will have 8 TDs.
• The receptions are lighter, he would end at 53 at 3.3/game

 

Yes, the drops are not good, but if you were asked before the beginning of the season would you take a 53-1,040-8 stat line for Davis this year? I am guessing almost everyone would, especially if you said Diggs was going to also have the year he's having. 

 

I have thought for a long time a lot of Bills fans overvalued Don Beebe, whose career highs with the Bills were 40 catches ('94) and 554 yards ('92). Davis is moving into undervalued territory.

Those numbers don’t tell the whole story as he has repeatedly been boom or bust and extremely inconsistent.  How much of that is Gabe vs. Josh vs. gameplan/scheme is hard to say.  He was crowned a little early IMO. This offense desperately needs a possession type WR2 and Gabe hasn’t been that guy as we all hoped. 

Edited November 25, 2022 by RoscoeParrish

[T master]

1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:

Going into the season, a lot of the buzz about the offense was about Gabe Davis "taking the next step" and becoming a big time WR2. Now, a significant portion of fans say he is a disappointment. 

 

I think a fair expectation going into the season to be considered a top end WR2 would be a season with 60-70 receptions, 900-1,000 yards and 7-9 TDs. 

 

Davis missed 1 game due to injury, so in the 10 games he has played he now has 33 receptions, 650 yards and 5 TDs. How does that compare to expectations?

• He ranks #22 in receiving yards per game, and the only WR2s ahead of him are Waddle and Higgins.
• Only 10 WRs have more TDs
• At 65 yards per game, that extrapolates out to 1,105 over 17 games. If he averages 65/game the rest of the year, it would be 1,040 in 16 games.
• He has 5 TDs in 10 games played so if he keeps up that pace he will have 8 TDs.
• The receptions are lighter, he would end at 53 at 3.3/game

 

Yes, the drops are not good, but if you were asked before the beginning of the season would you take a 53-1,040-8 stat line for Davis this year? I am guessing almost everyone would, especially if you said Diggs was going to also have the year he's having. 

 

I have thought for a long time a lot of Bills fans overvalued Don Beebe, whose career highs with the Bills were 40 catches ('94) and 554 yards ('92). Davis is moving into undervalued territory.

 

These are the same people that thought Beasely was losing his game only getting 88 completions for 600+ yds so this doesn't surprise me .

[JMM]

1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:

Going into the season, a lot of the buzz about the offense was about Gabe Davis "taking the next step" and becoming a big time WR2. Now, a significant portion of fans say he is a disappointment. 

 

I think a fair expectation going into the season to be considered a top end WR2 would be a season with 60-70 receptions, 900-1,000 yards and 7-9 TDs. 

 

Davis missed 1 game due to injury, so in the 10 games he has played he now has 33 receptions, 650 yards and 5 TDs. How does that compare to expectations?

• He ranks #22 in receiving yards per game, and the only WR2s ahead of him are Waddle and Higgins.
• Only 10 WRs have more TDs
• At 65 yards per game, that extrapolates out to 1,105 over 17 games. If he averages 65/game the rest of the year, it would be 1,040 in 16 games.
• He has 5 TDs in 10 games played so if he keeps up that pace he will have 8 TDs.
• The receptions are lighter, he would end at 53 at 3.3/game

 

Yes, the drops are not good, but if you were asked before the beginning of the season would you take a 53-1,040-8 stat line for Davis this year? I am guessing almost everyone would, especially if you said Diggs was going to also have the year he's having. 

 

I have thought for a long time a lot of Bills fans overvalued Don Beebe, whose career highs with the Bills were 40 catches ('94) and 554 yards ('92). Davis is moving into undervalued territory.

Oh, yea there are some drops...this is the equivalent of " But Mrs Lincoln how was the play". DROPS are about as important as anything other stat for a wr. His drop rate this year has been unacceptable and costly. He has regressed to some extent, and in my mind he is not a legitimate #2 WR at this time. He can prove that wrong the rest of the season and I hope he does.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

4 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Those numbers don’t tell the whole story as he has repeatedly been boom or bust and extremely inconsistent.  How much of that is Gabe vs. Josh vs. gameplan/scheme is hard to say.  He was crowned a little early IMO. This offense desperately needs a possession type WR2 and Gabe hasn’t been that guy as we all hoped. 

 

Stefon Diggs might be the best possession receiver in the game.  Having a second WR who's mostly a deep threat isn't a problem.  We just haven't seen nearly as many of those splash plays as we thought we might after the KC game last year.

[Bob in STL]

1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:

Going into the season, a lot of the buzz about the offense was about Gabe Davis "taking the next step" and becoming a big time WR2. Now, a significant portion of fans say he is a disappointment. 

 

I think a fair expectation going into the season to be considered a top end WR2 would be a season with 60-70 receptions, 900-1,000 yards and 7-9 TDs. 

 

Davis missed 1 game due to injury, so in the 10 games he has played he now has 33 receptions, 650 yards and 5 TDs. How does that compare to expectations?

• He ranks #22 in receiving yards per game, and the only WR2s ahead of him are Waddle and Higgins.
• Only 10 WRs have more TDs
• At 65 yards per game, that extrapolates out to 1,105 over 17 games. If he averages 65/game the rest of the year, it would be 1,040 in 16 games.
• He has 5 TDs in 10 games played so if he keeps up that pace he will have 8 TDs.
• The receptions are lighter, he would end at 53 at 3.3/game

 

Yes, the drops are not good, but if you were asked before the beginning of the season would you take a 53-1,040-8 stat line for Davis this year? I am guessing almost everyone would, especially if you said Diggs was going to also have the year he's having. 

 

I have thought for a long time a lot of Bills fans overvalued Don Beebe, whose career highs with the Bills were 40 catches ('94) and 554 yards ('92). Davis is moving into undervalued territory.

Eh, I’m not going to complain about Davis but I feel he has been a slight disappointment so far as a #2 this season.  He just needs more consistent play from week to week.  I will happily take the projection to 50-1000-8.  No one could complain about 20 yd/catch.  
 

Comparing him to Don Beebe makes no sense.  They played in different eras.  The Kelly era Bills ran the ball a lot more.  Beebe was a #3 with Buffalo, Davis is expected to be a #2 this season. 

[ToGoGo]

In psych 101 they teach the Fundamental Attribution Error. Basically, it means that when observers see somebody do something a few times, they attribute it to that person's character, rather than whatever situation they are dealing with at that time. 

 

Gabe has been an ultra-clutch performer his entire career. He started extremely strong, but the last few weeks, coinciding with the rest of the team fighting through injuries and adversity, is going through a slump of his own and dealing with drops, likely related to rushing back from an injury.

 

Now, many fans are saying that Gabe is "not a WR2 and should stay a WR4" or that he is "unreliable". We all know about recency bias, but sometimes I am just AWED at the ability of some people to completely forget the unbelievable things somebody has done and give up on them the moment they go through a slump, no matter how uncharacteristic it is.

 

Gabe had a solid game yesterday. Had a drop on a difficult catch/great DB play. But now of course, he's dealing with the narrative being given to him by fans. Fans don't realize this, but by putting this narrative on his shoulders, they are making the mental climb out of his hole even MORE difficult than it has to be, rather than showing support. There is such a thing as the 12th man, but fans like to think it is only a positive effect. I'd argue the 12th man is having it's own case of the dropsies when they start turning on great players going through tough times. The fans are only hurting themselves. Let's hope Davis is more emotionally disciplined than the fanbase. 

[RoscoeParrish]

7 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

Stefon Diggs might be the best possession receiver in the game.  Having a second WR who's mostly a deep threat isn't a problem.  We just haven't seen nearly as many of those splash plays as we thought we might after the KC game last year.

Sure, but he has ONLY been a deep threat when it comes to impactful plays.  That’s not ideal for your WR2. 

Edited November 25, 2022 by RoscoeParrish

[Yobogoya!]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Gabe's receptions, yards, and TDs are mostly a result of playing in a pass-happy offense with Josh Allen at QB. 

 

He's near the bottom of the league in drop percentage and catches per targets. He's also run wrong routes that resulted in multiple INTs

 

He's taken a pretty big step back this season even if his initial stats look fine. 

I agree with most of what you said but I’m curious as to your source for the wrong routes resulting in picks claim. Is that just an eye test by you or is there more concrete evidence of that? 
 

Either way, I was all for giving Gabe the opportunity to cement himself as a true star receiver this year and that just hasn’t happened. If we can land Beckham I’m more than ok with that at this point. 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

4 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Sure, but he has ONLY been a deep threat when it comes to impactful plays.  That’s not ideal for your WR2. 

 

I agree with you insofar as we haven't had a consistent slot guy as a safety valve.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:

Going into the season, a lot of the buzz about the offense was about Gabe Davis "taking the next step" and becoming a big time WR2. Now, a significant portion of fans say he is a disappointment. 

 

I think a fair expectation going into the season to be considered a top end WR2 would be a season with 60-70 receptions, 900-1,000 yards and 7-9 TDs. 

 

Davis missed 1 game due to injury, so in the 10 games he has played he now has 33 receptions, 650 yards and 5 TDs. How does that compare to expectations?

• He ranks #22 in receiving yards per game, and the only WR2s ahead of him are Waddle and Higgins.
• Only 10 WRs have more TDs
• At 65 yards per game, that extrapolates out to 1,105 over 17 games. If he averages 65/game the rest of the year, it would be 1,040 in 16 games.
• He has 5 TDs in 10 games played so if he keeps up that pace he will have 8 TDs.
• The receptions are lighter, he would end at 53 at 3.3/game

 

Yes, the drops are not good, but if you were asked before the beginning of the season would you take a 53-1,040-8 stat line for Davis this year? I am guessing almost everyone would, especially if you said Diggs was going to also have the year he's having. 

 

I have thought for a long time a lot of Bills fans overvalued Don Beebe, whose career highs with the Bills were 40 catches ('94) and 554 yards ('92). Davis is moving into undervalued territory.

 

Didn't we just have a thread on this?

 

The issue is consistency.

 

Davis has had a very boom-or-bust year.  He has had some games where he's made incredible contested catches or shoestring grabs, outrun coverage for long TDs, won the game for us.  A lot of his yards are on a handful of deep receptions, which are important.

 

He's also had some games where he's dropped balls a competent NFL WR really needs to catch.  If we want to talk stats, Davis overall 55% catch rate is poor, and it's not all on Allen throwing him contested high-degree-of-difficulty balls.  His 10% scored drop rate is abysmal, and he has 5 INTs against him.  Several of those INTs are not on him - if Josh threw a different ball it woulda been a TD, and I think Davis was probably right and Josh wrong in how he read the coverage on the Jets INT.  But I think some are on him.  There's some charting out there where at times he seems to be running the wrong route on a play, or a different route than Josh expects him to run, or run the route in a way that allows the DB to jump the route.

 

Then there was that tip on the onside kick....

 

Now maybe all of that is true for #2 WR on other teams, but for many of the top teams I don't think so.  I think their WR is usually a more consistent guy. 

 

To be fair, the Bills are riding Davis into the ground.  He is out there almost every offensive play, being asked to chip or block if he's not running a route.  It's possible he'd run better routes more consistently if the Bills let him catch his breath now and then.

 

 

5 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

I agree with you insofar as we haven't had a consistent slot guy as a safety valve.

 

But it goes beyond that.  The #2 has to be able to run a crosser and make a grab in the middle of the field when he's open.  We've had a number of drives end on catchable  balls Davis drops, or fails to secure.

[RoscoeParrish]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Didn't we just have a thread on this?

 

The issue is consistency.

 

Davis has had a very boom-or-bust year.  He has had some games where he's made incredible contested catches or shoestring grabs, outrun coverage for long TDs, won the game for us.  A lot of his yards are on a handful of deep receptions, which are important.

 

He's also had some games where he's dropped balls a competent NFL WR really needs to catch.  If we want to talk stats, Davis overall 55% catch rate is poor, and it's not all on Allen throwing him contested high-degree-of-difficulty balls.  His 10% scored drop rate is abysmal, and he has 5 INTs against him.  Several of those INTs are not on him - if Josh threw a different ball it woulda been a TD, and I think Davis was probably right and Josh wrong in how he read the coverage on the Jets INT.  But I think some are on him.  There's some charting out there where at times he seems to be running the wrong route on a play, or a different route than Josh expects him to run, or run the route in a way that allows the DB to jump the route.

 

Then there was that tip on the onside kick....

 

Now maybe all of that is true for #2 WR on other teams, but for many of the top teams I don't think so.  I think their WR is usually a more consistent guy. 

 

To be fair, the Bills are riding Davis into the ground.  He is out there almost every offensive play, being asked to chip or block if he's not running a route.  It's possible he'd run better routes more consistently if the Bills let him catch his breath now and then.

 

 

Consistency is the concern.  He’s not a WR2 if he needs limited snaps to catch his breath and perform. 

[Bob in STL]

4 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

In psych 101 they teach the Fundamental Attribution Error. Basically, it means that when observers see somebody do something a few times, they attribute it to that person's character, rather than whatever situation they are dealing with at that time. 

 

Gabe has been an ultra-clutch performer his entire career. He started extremely strong, but the last few weeks, coinciding with the rest of the team fighting through injuries and adversity, is going through a slump of his own and dealing with drops, likely related to rushing back from an injury.

 

Now, many fans are saying that Gabe is "not a WR2 and should stay a WR4" or that he is "unreliable". We all know about recency bias, but sometimes I am just AWED at the ability of some people to completely forget the unbelievable things somebody has done and give up on them the moment they go through a slump, no matter how uncharacteristic it is.

 

Gabe had a solid game yesterday. Had a drop on a difficult catch/great DB play. But now of course, he's dealing with the narrative being given to him by fans. Fans don't realize this, but by putting this narrative on his shoulders, they are making the mental climb out of his hole even MORE difficult than it has to be, rather than showing support. There is such a thing as the 12th man, but fans like to think it is only a positive effect. I'd argue the 12th man is having it's own case of the dropsies when they start turning on great players going through tough times. The fans are only hurting themselves. Let's hope Davis is more emotionally disciplined than the fanbase. 

Two things. 
 

Does being “ultra clutch” and also  among the league leaders in drops make sense?   He has been very good at times, but not yet consistently very good.  Save the “ultra clutch” titles for the true greats of the game.  
 

Do you want a player that listens to fans and media and lets it affect his play?   I hope and seriously doubt that Davis is distracted by the “12th” man.  I would bet he isn’t.   Playing in Buffalo is easier than many other markets when it comes to pressure from fans and media. 

[ToGoGo]

1 minute ago, Bob in STL said:

Two things. 
 

Does being “ultra clutch” and also  among the league leaders in drops make sense?   He has been very good at times, but not yet consistently very good.  Save the “ultra clutch” titles for the true greats of the game.  
 

Do you want a player that listens to fans and media and lets it affect his play?   I hope and seriously doubt that Davis is distracted by the “12th” man.  I would bet he isn’t.   Playing in Buffalo is easier than many other markets when it comes to pressure from fans and media. 

 

Disagree strongly with both your points. 

 

Yes, he's ultra clutch. His performance against KC in the playoffs is in the pantheon of all time NFL performances, not just franchise. He had one of the true great performances in NFL playoff history. Did you forget? The toe tap catches that saved us in the Colts playoff game? The incredible 4th down catch that dragged the defender over the 1st down marker in the Bucs game? That's a better clutch portfolio than 95% of NFL players in history and we're halfway through his 3rd year, so I have no idea where you're coming from. 

 

As to your 2nd point, every player is different. I'd argue 5-10% of human beings have the ability to block out the negative energy of thousands and/or millions of people doubting them. Think of the mental health epidemic now, and those are just regular people. Some people are more sensitive to it than others. They may be absolute warriors, but if you've ever had your own family or parents doubt you for years about something you believed in, you know it weighs heavy, even as you continue to perform at a high level. Something about your "own people" doubting you, is worse than knowing it's coming from your enemies/opposing fans. All Bills fans are doing are shooting themselves in the foot by praying Davis is one of those rare human beings who can overcome his issues AND the issues of hundreds of thousands of people.