McKenzie's Place in the Offense Going Forward

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

It’s clear that:

 

A.) Shakir needs more reps

 

B.) Cook needs more time in the slot.

 

Neither of those things are clear to me. Shakir in his limited reps is having trouble creating clear separation from defenders and I think James Cook needs more touches, but for me those come as a running back in the running game and, if they can get it going, the designed running back screen game (something we have been bad at almost since Chan Gailey was here!)

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

6 minutes ago, BUFFALOBART said:

If he was the same guy, he'd still be here.

Are you channeling the ghost of John Madden? 🤔

[Warriorspikes51]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Neither of those things are clear to me. Shakir in his limited reps is having trouble creating clear separation from defenders and I think James Cook needs more touches, but for me those come as a running back in the running game and, if they can get it going, the designed running back screen game (something we have been bad at almost since Chan Gailey was here!)

Then you scheme him open

[benderbender]

7 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

?  Neither player has a deal that is hard to get out of next year and there is no appreciable difference between them.

 

McKenzie basically got a 1 yr contract with about half his 2022 salary guaranteed in addition to signing bonus.  So he carries a minimal dead cap hit in 2023, and the Bills could move on if they wish.

 

Hines contract is even easier for the Bills to walk away from, as his amortized signing bonus was left behind with the Colts and he has no guarantees. 

 

But, if the Bills want to keep him, they either need to re-negotiate or find some serious cap space, because he's owed $4.45M next year and $5.1M in 2024. 

 

This season, $4.45M would give Hines the 12th highest cap hit on the team - a bit rich for a PR/KR and gadget guy.

Given what we’ve seen from every returner since Roberts, Hines has already won me over. Remember when we had such little confidence in anyone on the roster not to fumble that Hyde had to step in? I’ll gladly take that cap hit. We thought we could replace Roberts so cheap that we let him walk for what, 750k more? I enjoy that I don’t have to go to the bathroom or get more wings on punts anymore.

[hemma]

Bills fans have been denied cheerleaders for many years.

He can do jumping, twirling, spirited megaphone things and increase home crowd noise and chaos.

Teams build dreams.

[Beck Water]

59 minutes ago, benderbender said:

Given what we’ve seen from every returner since Roberts, Hines has already won me over. Remember when we had such little confidence in anyone on the roster not to fumble that Hyde had to step in? I’ll gladly take that cap hit. We thought we could replace Roberts so cheap that we let him walk for what, 750k more? I enjoy that I don’t have to go to the bathroom or get more wings on punts anymore.

 

I Hear You, but I think that's beyond Beane's "price point" for a guy who is a strictly PR/KR/Gadget dude at this point in the Bills salary cap cycle. That was my point to @atlbillsfan1975 (and also, that Hines contract is not guaranteed next year, it's, if anything, easier to shed than McK because no dead cap at all).

 

That said, I don't believe the Bills see Hines as PR/KR/Gadget guy.  Hines put up 739 and 862 yds from scrimmage with Luck and Rivers throwing to him, and Hines is only 26; he should have some years and miles on him.  The Bills have been looking for that pass-catching RB all off-season with their play for McKissic, signing Duke Johnson, then drafting James Cook.  If Hines soaks up the playbook and starts flashing, I would expect the Bills to value Hines as more than a KR/PR/Gadget boy.

 

PS on that onside kick at the end of the Browns game, Believe me, I missed Hyde.  Compare and contrast that leaping, both hands on the ball,

pirouette TD Micah Hyde pulled with that one handed tip by Gabe Davis. *shudder*

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Beck Water

[HoofHearted]

This is where Dorsey differs from Daboll. Daboll was pretty vanilla as far as moving guys around. Guys played where they played for the most part. Dorsey schemes guys open and will move their positioning on the field in order to do so.

 

Diggs is our best slot receiver and it’s not even close. His percentage of targets from the slot has doubled from last year. We should really be talking about who is the best replacement outside. Shakir doesn’t have the fast twitch to do the things Beasley did for us from the slot last season. I think he’s much better served outside. He has really good body control and can win a lot of those 50/50 balls. Move Diggs inside and let him go to work on slot corners, safeties, and backers in space.

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

This is where Dorsey differs from Daboll. Daboll was pretty vanilla as far as moving guys around. Guys played where they played for the most part. Dorsey schemes guys open and will move their positioning on the field in order to do so.

 

Diggs is our best slot receiver and it’s not even close. His percentage of targets from the slot has doubled from last year. We should really be talking about who is the best replacement outside. Shakir doesn’t have the fast twitch to do the things Beasley did for us from the slot last season. I think he’s much better served outside. He has really good body control and can win a lot of those 50/50 balls. Move Diggs inside and let him go to work on slot corners, safeties, and backers in space.

Yes. Do it 

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

This is where Dorsey differs from Daboll. Daboll was pretty vanilla as far as moving guys around. Guys played where they played for the most part. Dorsey schemes guys open and will move their positioning on the field in order to do so.

 

Diggs is our best slot receiver and it’s not even close. His percentage of targets from the slot has doubled from last year. We should really be talking about who is the best replacement outside. Shakir doesn’t have the fast twitch to do the things Beasley did for us from the slot last season. I think he’s much better served outside. He has really good body control and can win a lot of those 50/50 balls. Move Diggs inside and let him go to work on slot corners, safeties, and backers in space.

 

But Dorsey doesn't scheme guys open!  I heard it ...somewhere....

 

Diggs is our best WR anywhere on the field, and it isn't close.  That said, I don't think he'd be happy being full-time in the slot, and I think it's a matchup nightmare for other teams when he's moved around the field.  I don't think Diggs wants the full-time punishment a full-time slot receiver takes. 

 

And frankly, we'd have to go a long way to replace him outside as well.  If we're looking for an outside receiver that's as exceptional as Diggs can be, is that really easier to find and develop than an exceptional slot guy?

 

I think Shakir can potentially learn to play twitchier in the slot.  I could be wrong of course, but it's my impression that a lot of what makes a guy a top slot against zone is mental processing speed added to "enough" natural athleticism.  When I can watch Shakir on film, he seems to me to be playing like a guy who's still thinking.

 

I hope so. Some folks express skepticism about Shakir as an outside WR.  I take it you're not one of those who have concern about Shakir and his 29" arms fending off the 31-33" armed corners like Sauce Gardner, and I would be interested in why, if you care to share.  Body control seems like it's only part of the equation, to me.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Neither of those things are clear to me. Shakir in his limited reps is having trouble creating clear separation from defenders and I think James Cook needs more touches, but for me those come as a running back in the running game and, if they can get it going, the designed running back screen game (something we have been bad at almost since Chan Gailey was here!)

 

Seems like even when Chan Gailey was here, we were better with the bubble screens, but I could mis-remember.  I do think folks may have a point that the very run threat Josh Allen poses makes it harder to execute RB screens.

I haven't had the chance to watch much all-22 and the American NFL+ is freakin' broken, but when I've seen Shakir in the slot, that's what I've seen.  The coaches see these guys in practice, they have GPS tracking them.  If Shakir were getting it done in practice, he'd be getting more reps in games. 

 

Cook is a rookie.  He needs to master the NFL RB position, including RB routes and pass protection.  Let's not put "slot receiver in training" on his plate just yet.

[Beck Water]

21 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I think the correct question is what is the role of a Slot Receiver in Dorsey's Offense.  I'm not sure it has much to do with McKenzie. Daboll used Beasley as a guy who would go out five yards right off the snap and turn around.  I think McKenzie can at least do that!  So can Shakir.  In Dorsey's Offense, that role has been replaced by a late leaking Singletary who presents himself to the QB as a check down five yards deep over the middle.

 

Actually....in my observation, "go out 5 yds off the snap and turn around" is not at all how Daboll used Beasley in the slot.  Beasley ran lots and lots and lots of crossers and option routes.  In 2020, when the Bills were totally deadly with the deeper intermediate routes, these took a bit of time to develop.  In 2021, Beasley seemed as though he'd lost a step (or maybe two) and took longer to get there - and when teams were playing rush 3 or 4, 2 deep, flood the intermediate routes they weren't there at all.  That's when Daboll started using Beasley on the quick "spot" routes or even in the flat (and Beasley's success in the flat was limited).

 

In 2020 and 2021, Singletary was used far more often as the checkdown option in the flat or swing.  Eventually in 2021 Josh learned to see him, but it was a challenge.

 

As a slot, from what I've seen, McKenzie has been being used on those quick checkdown routes a lot, and growing lonely - this may have to do with how teams are defending us, more than how Dorsey wants to use a slot.

[Big Turk]

McKenzie is frustrating because he should be more productive than he is.

 

His routes are not precise enough at times and he doesn't have a great feel for sitting down against zone coverage 

 

He has been a massive disappointment as the starting slot WR after showing great promise there at times filling in for Beasley last year.

 

Wonder if there is something different Dorsey is doing with him versus what Daboll did.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Big Turk

[Process]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

McKenzie is frustrating because he should be more productive than he is.

 

His routes are not precise enough at times and he doesn't have a great feel for sitting down against zone coverage 

 

He has been a massive disappointment as the starting slot WR after showing great promise there at times filling in for Beasley last year.

 

Wonder if there is something different Dorsey is doing with him versus what Daboll did.

He's not a disappointment. In 14 games last year he had more than 12 yards 2 times. He's never done anything to show he can be a starting WR. He's a fringe NFL player. Love Beane but he is the disappointment when it comes to the WRs. And the coaches now for not giving Shakir more playing time and figuring out ways to get others involved.

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

?  Neither player has a deal that is hard to get out of next year and there is no appreciable difference between them.

 

McKenzie basically got a 1 yr contract with about half his 2022 salary guaranteed in addition to signing bonus.  So he carries a minimal dead cap hit in 2023, and the Bills could move on if they wish.

 

Hines contract is even easier for the Bills to walk away from, as his amortized signing bonus was left behind with the Colts and he has no guarantees. 

 

But, if the Bills want to keep him, they either need to re-negotiate or find some serious cap space, because he's owed $4.45M next year and $5.1M in 2024. 

 

This season, $4.45M would give Hines the 12th highest cap hit on the team - a bit rich for a PR/KR and gadget guy.

I'm letting McKenzie go and doing whatever I can to renegotiate a contract with Hines. Trust me his potential as more than a returner in this offense is too much to just let him go.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Then you scheme him open

 

Sure. But if you need to scheme him open it isn't "clear" that he needs to be on the field more. A guy who it is clear needs more opportunities is a guy who is getting open. It isn't a knock on Shakir. I like him, I liked the pick, I just think some expectations are a little out of kilter. I think they need to continue to give him opportunities to get on the field and make plays but he needs to do more with them to earn a significant uptick in playing time. Not sure we are quite there yet. At some point he is going to breakout and demand more playing time. But it will happen when it happens naturally. Until then 25% or so of the reps feels round about right to me. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

McKenzie is frustrating because he should be more productive than he is.

His routes are not precise enough at times and he doesn't have a great feel for sitting down against zone coverage 

 

This last is true, but he has been working hard to learn that skill.  I see him open at times, but I don't think Allen really trusts him 1) to see the defense the same way and choose the same option 2) to make a smooth catch and hold on in tight coverage.  There are catches that McKenzie will make reliably - when the ball is leading him or above him and he has no choice but to catch it with his hands.  But if he can, he will try to body-catch the ball and that leads to double-clutching situations.   He can't or won't work on and be coached out of this, apparently.

 

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

He has been a massive disappointment as the starting slot WR after showing great promise there at times filling in for Beasley last year.

Wonder if there is something different Dorsey is doing with him versus what Daboll did.

 

Agreed with the first.  But where McKenzie had most success last season was against teams that are covering us in man, where he just runs away from guys and Allen leads him with the ball (his most reliable catching).  I don't think the Bills have been seeing a lot of man this year.  I could be wrong, I haven't watched as much all-22. 

 

To the second, yes there are additional differences.  One is, Dorsey has been using McKenzie a lot as a quick outlet either on a swing route or in the flat, and Allen hates to take that checkdown.  Two is, when there are layered route concepts McKenzie is usually the shallow layer and Allen tries to hit the "kill shot" deep. 

 

Third, this could just be me and I welcome points to the contrary but I don't think Dorsey is using as many crossing routes.  This may be that they aren't as effective against the coverages we're seeing. 

 

Last point, Cover1 touched on this in a recent video on "red zone woes", but there are times where the route tree being run is atrocious and McKenzie (or Cook) should be schemed open but the spacing with other receivers (usually Davis) is off.  I'm not savvy enough to figure out who is to blame, but in at least one instance it appears that McKenzie is running a clean, recognizable route and Davis is running...something. 

 

It may not be route design, but route execution.  McKenzie is a popular whipping boy here at TBD, but from what I see there are other receivers who are not running precise and deceptive routes, or hanging on to the ball when it reaches them.

 

With all that, it's worth noting that in addition to contributing 4 TD (3 passing, 1 rushing; 3rd on the team behind Diggs and Davis) and 17 first downs (14 passing, 3 rushing; 4th on the team other than Josh Allen and 2nd of the receivers), McKenzie does manage to haul in the ball 67% of the time, which is 2nd to Diggs among our WR.  Again, it's apparently very fashionable to hate on McK and want him benched or cut, but those who want that don't appear to have a very data-based vision of how to replace him - just a hope that the coaches are all blind and stupid and can't see that Shakir or Hines or Cook or SOMEONE would be better.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, benderbender said:

Given what we’ve seen from every returner since Roberts, Hines has already won me over. Remember when we had such little confidence in anyone on the roster not to fumble that Hyde had to step in? I’ll gladly take that cap hit. We thought we could replace Roberts so cheap that we let him walk for what, 750k more? I enjoy that I don’t have to go to the bathroom or get more wings on punts anymore.

His capacity to do so much more than just returns is ridiculous. Remember his first game as a Bill when Josh missed him on an open wheel route. Dorsey has to stop dicking around and use this guy. Scheme up some plays dude.

[ColoradoBills]

On 11/22/2022 at 11:32 AM, Scott7975 said:

Shakir has had 151 snaps now and has also been invisible in most of them. So invisible I was shocked to see he’s had that many snaps. 

 

McKenzie has not played as I hoped but Shakir isn't tearing it up with his chances.  He's 7 of 15 for 118 yards and 2 drops.

Both need to improve and Shakir at 25% of snaps is fine with me until he proves he deserves more.

If Cook and Hines end up taking a few SWR snaps I'm fine with McKenzie losing a few.

[frostbitmic]

33 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

McKenzie has not played as I hoped but Shakir isn't tearing it up with his chances.  He's 7 of 15 for 118 yards and 2 drops.

Both need to improve and Shakir at 25% of snaps is fine with me until he proves he deserves more.

If Cook and Hines end up taking a few SWR snaps I'm fine with McKenzie losing a few.

It would be fun seeing what they could come up with having Hines and Cook in the backfield together.

[billsfan89]

Mac is really good as a gadget WR4. That’s where he finds his best opportunities.