In Gabe We Trust!

[folz]

Not sure if this deserved it's own topic, but wasn't sure where else to put it...

 

I've seen a number of posters the past couple of weeks really down on Gabe Davis, saying he's not a good #2 WR, we should have brought in a FA boundary receiver, the Bills were dumb to count on Davis stepping up, etc.

 

I just want to bring a little perspective...

 

1. Gabe started out the year with a big 88 yard, 1 TD game against the Rams, but injured his ankle and had to sit out week 2 at Tennessee. 

2. Then the team lost Crowder and Kumerow to IR. So, despite the ankle not being healed, Gabe gutted out weeks 3 and 4 against Miami and Baltimore, respectively...because the team was desperate. He obviously did not have good games on the bum ankle.

3. He then bounced back with big games against Pitt and KC (245 yards and 3 TDs)...then the BYE week hit.

4. After the Bye week came the dud second half in GB and the two losses (to NY and Minn), where Josh and the entire offense looked off (not just Gabe).

5. And finally the Cleveland game and Snowmaggedon...not perfect, but a step back in the right direction for the entire offense.

 

It has been such a start-and-stop, weird season for Gabe (with the injury and where the bye fell) and then the offensive woes, which isn't all on Gabe (is it Josh's arm or head, Dorsey's play calling, teams catching up to our offense? etc.). Yes, Gabe has had some drops this year (5 to be exact), but Josh hasn't lost faith in him, nor have I. Deebo Samuel has 7 drops on a similar number of targets as Gabe. Amari Cooper, Ja'Mar Chase, DK Metcalf, and Courtland Sutton all have 6 drops each (granted, on 20 or so more targets than Gabe). 24 wide receivers have at least 4 drops this year. And how many of Gabe's drops were when he was playing on a bad ankle (a couple at least---I know he had a couple of big drops the last couple of weeks as well, though and he's got to clean that up...but it happens, even to the best receivers in the league---even Diggs had a big drop in the Vikings game). 

 

Also, people talk about Diggs being double covered as if that means everyone else has a one-on-one, but there have been numerous games this year where defenses have doubled both Diggs and Davis (because they weren't as worried about our run game or the slot as much). Gabe isn't always seeing single coverage. Teams know he is a weapon.

 

And as to him not being a good #2 receiver, let's look at some stats:

 

If you take away the two games where he was obviously playing injured, then Gabe is averaging 80.3 yards and .71 TDs per game. If he continued that average over the balance of the season, he would end up with 1,174 yards and 10 TDs (having missed one game and playing hurt in two others). That sounds like damn good #2 receiver numbers to me. In fact, if compared to WR production last season, that would have put him 10th in total yards and tied for 6th in total TDs by WRs. And even if you include the two games he played injured in for the pro-rated averages (that would then be 68 yards and .55 TDs/game this season), he would still be in line for 1,088 yards and 9 TDs this season. Only 15 WRs had more than 1,088 yards last year. Only 15 WRs had 9 or more TDs last season (only 8 WRs had more than 9 TDs).

 

To drive the point home, currently (this season), having sat out one game and played two games severely hampered, Gabe is still 19th in receiving yards (by WRs) and is one of only 13 WRs with 5 or more TDs. Considering there are 32 teams, shouldn't there be 32 #1 WRs, right? Yet, for what we feel is a subpar season so far for Gabe, he is performing like a mid-tier #1 receiver in the stat column. And yet some are saying that he isn't even good enough to be a #2?

 

It seems that some people are either expecting elite #1 stats from their #2 wide receiver or they are just upset at the offense's recent woes and are looking for scapegoats.

 

Anyhow, just here to say don't lose faith in Gabe. I think he'll be huge down the stretch of the season.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, folz said:

Not sure if this deserved it's own topic, but wasn't sure where else to put it...

 

I've seen a number of posters the past couple of weeks really down on Gabe Davis, saying he's not a good #2 WR, we should have brought in a FA boundary receiver, the Bills were dumb to count on Davis stepping up, etc.

 

I just want to bring a little perspective...

 

1. Gabe started out the year with a big 88 yard, 1 TD game against the Rams, but injured his ankle and had to sit out week 2 at Tennessee. 

2. Then the team lost Crowder and Kumerow to IR. So, despite the ankle not being healed, Gabe gutted out weeks 3 and 4 against Miami and Baltimore, respectively...because the team was desperate. He obviously did not have good games on the bum ankle.

 

Crowder played 50% of the snaps vs. Miami and was playing in the Ravens game until he broke his leg.  He also plays a different role.  So he has nothing to do with Gabe Davis "gutting it out". 

 

Kumerow played against Miami and was lost to a high ankle sprain.  He has always seen limited snaps offensively, and Davis certainly didn't "gut it out" to take his role on ST vs Baltimore. 

 

In fact Hodgins was elevated the following week vs. Pittsburgh, and played very effectively with 4 receptions on 6 targets for 41 yds.

 

I can't say the Bills were "dumb" to count on Davis stepping up, because he looked productive in his limited snaps last season.  But he hasn't stepped up as expected. 

 

It's not the Mia and Bal games that are the issue, it's the disappearing games against Green Bay and the Jets.  The guy has a 52.7% catch %.  That ain't good.  Neither are the 5 drops (9.1% drops) and the INTs (5)  against him.  Yeah, Josh throws him high degree of difficulty balls at times and some of the INTs aren't his fault.

 

I hope you're correct that Gabe will be huge down the stretch because we need him.

[Mike in Horseheads]

Thanks for your manifesto.  He almost blew the game with fumbling the onsides kick

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Sorry but constant ankle injuries are a testament to his inconsistent play these last 2 seasons. The drops continue and you never know from week to week which Gabe you're getting? I'm sure Dorsey & not having aa good slot wr also contributes.  But he's gotta step it up.

[Dr.Sack]

I noticed his clapping receiving technique is eerily similar to his coaches clapping.  That’s a good omen.

[seattlebillsfan]

I was surprised today to review the Bills’ team stats and see that G.D. has more than 600 yards receiving this season. Basically on pace for a 1,000 yard receiving season. That does seem #2ish, like how Peerless Price had 1,000 yards during his one good season with the Bills (2002). That said, Diggs and Davis are not Rice and Taylor. If we don’t get a Taylor-quality #2, then we need a 2a, 2b, 2c lineup (with Davis as one of those) that is much deeper than our status quo. TBD If Shakir can be 2b or 2c. Clearly Isaiah McKenize cannot. I guess what I am saying is if we had 2 more guys as good as Davis, plus Davis and Diggs, plus Knox and Morris, I think we would be OK. Basically we are missing the 2c receiver and the coaches need to let Shakir show his stuff so we see if he is 2b or if we also need a 2b…

[K D]

Gabe Davis runs 3 routes apparently. If you know the situation you can sit on his route like Peterson did twice in the Vikes game. Does that sound like a solid #2 guy you can count on? Or just a guy that can get open deep which is exactly who they thought he was coming out of college. Bills need another option and McKenzie ain't it. He's just a gadget guy. They need a legit slot guy like what Beasley was. Crowder even when he played didn't show up like that. Bills missing 1 more piece to this puzzle 🧩

[US Egg]

53 minutes ago, folz said:

Not sure if this deserved it's own topic, but wasn't sure where else to put it...

 

I've seen a number of posters the past couple of weeks really down on Gabe Davis, saying he's not a good #2 WR, we should have brought in a FA boundary receiver, the Bills were dumb to count on Davis stepping up, etc.

 

I just want to bring a little perspective...

 

1. Gabe started out the year with a big 88 yard, 1 TD game against the Rams, but injured his ankle and had to sit out week 2 at Tennessee. 

2. Then the team lost Crowder and Kumerow to IR. So, despite the ankle not being healed, Gabe gutted out weeks 3 and 4 against Miami and Baltimore, respectively...because the team was desperate. He obviously did not have good games on the bum ankle.

3. He then bounced back with big games against Pitt and KC (245 yards and 3 TDs)...then the BYE week hit.

4. After the Bye week came the dud second half in GB and the two losses (to NY and Minn), where Josh and the entire offense looked off (not just Gabe).

5. And finally the Cleveland game and Snowmaggedon...not perfect, but a step back in the right direction for the entire offense.

 

It has been such a start-and-stop, weird season for Gabe (with the injury and where the bye fell) and then the offensive woes, which isn't all on Gabe (is it Josh's arm or head, Dorsey's play calling, teams catching up to our offense? etc.). Yes, Gabe has had some drops this year (5 to be exact), but Josh hasn't lost faith in him, nor have I. Deebo Samuel has 7 drops on a similar number of targets as Gabe. Amari Cooper, Ja'Mar Chase, DK Metcalf, and Courtland Sutton all have 6 drops each (granted, on 20 or so more targets than Gabe). 24 wide receivers have at least 4 drops this year. And how many of Gabe's drops were when he was playing on a bad ankle (a couple at least---I know he had a couple of big drops the last couple of weeks as well, though and he's got to clean that up...but it happens, even to the best receivers in the league---even Diggs had a big drop in the Vikings game). 

 

Also, people talk about Diggs being double covered as if that means everyone else has a one-on-one, but there have been numerous games this year where defenses have doubled both Diggs and Davis (because they weren't as worried about our run game or the slot as much). Gabe isn't always seeing single coverage. Teams know he is a weapon.

 

And as to him not being a good #2 receiver, let's look at some stats:

 

If you take away the two games where he was obviously playing injured, then Gabe is averaging 80.3 yards and .71 TDs per game. If he continued that average over the balance of the season, he would end up with 1,174 yards and 10 TDs (having missed one game and playing hurt in two others). That sounds like damn good #2 receiver numbers to me. In fact, if compared to WR production last season, that would have put him 10th in total yards and tied for 6th in total TDs by WRs. And even if you include the two games he played injured in for the pro-rated averages (that would then be 68 yards and .55 TDs/game this season), he would still be in line for 1,088 yards and 9 TDs this season. Only 15 WRs had more than 1,088 yards last year. Only 15 WRs had 9 or more TDs last season (only 8 WRs had more than 9 TDs).

 

To drive the point home, currently (this season), having sat out one game and played two games severely hampered, Gabe is still 19th in receiving yards (by WRs) and is one of only 13 WRs with 5 or more TDs. Considering there are 32 teams, shouldn't there be 32 #1 WRs, right? Yet, for what we feel is a subpar season so far for Gabe, he is performing like a mid-tier #1 receiver in the stat column. And yet some are saying that he isn't even good enough to be a #2?

 

It seems that some people are either expecting elite #1 stats from their #2 wide receiver or they are just upset at the offense's recent woes and are looking for scapegoats.

 

Anyhow, just here to say don't lose faith in Gabe. I think he'll be huge down the stretch of the season.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

Where’s the footnotes?

[Billznut]

My ideal situation is Davis signs a team friendly deal to be our #3 receiver next season and beyond and Beane finds a legitimate dependable #2 for this offense next year and going forward. 

[reddogblitz]

I don't know. When the football hits you in the hands, you gotta catch it.  This is the bigs.

[BillsShredder83]

51 minutes ago, Billznut said:

My ideal situation is Davis signs a team friendly deal to be our #3 receiver next season and beyond and Beane finds a legitimate dependable #2 for this offense next year and going forward. 

Would mean moving Diggs in the slot (yes please) and drafting WR in top 2-3 rds. Sign me up!

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Gabe Davis runs 3 routes apparently. If you know the situation you can sit on his route like Peterson did twice in the Vikes game. Does that sound like a solid #2 guy you can count on? Or just a guy that can get open deep which is exactly who they thought he was coming out of college. Bills need another option and McKenzie ain't it. He's just a gadget guy. They need a legit slot guy like what Beasley was. Crowder even when he played didn't show up like that. Bills missing 1 more piece to this puzzle 🧩

I wouldn’t trust petersons yappin too much lol gabe Davis had him beat on that post route he was talking about and he knows it.  Josh just threw a terrible ball.
99% of the time that is a td or an incompletion but josh missed the throw so badly that he threw Peterson right back into the play.  
 

vikings defense was absolutely embarrassing to close out regulation and in ot it’s a shame josh missed that throw so badly.  It was pretty surreal listening to them talk about their elite preparation after that game 😂. They left just about everything open on that final play but the decoy post route that we wanted them to cover haha 

 

the problem with gabe doesn’t seem to be the route running to me…he gets open plenty he just is dropping too many passes and not making enough contested catches 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Thanks for your manifesto.  He almost blew the game with fumbling the onsides kick

 

Yep and his drop in the red zone, early in the game, kept the Bills offense in a funk.

[KHAN]

The one thing I've learned as a member here is la large portion of "Bills fans" here actually hate the Bills, and would do a much better job as coaches and GM.

 

I would have never guessed that.

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Billznut said:

My ideal situation is Davis signs a team friendly deal to be our #3 receiver next season and beyond and Beane finds a legitimate dependable #2 for this offense next year and going forward. 

I don't disagree but Davis will want to be paid.  His uneven play makes it tricky for Beane.  They definitely need another receiver in the mix.

[vincec]

43 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I wouldn’t trust petersons yappin too much lol gabe Davis had him beat on that post route he was talking about and he knows it.  Josh just threw a terrible ball.
99% of the time that is a td or an incompletion but josh missed the throw so badly that he threw Peterson right back into the play.  
 

vikings defense was absolutely embarrassing to close out regulation and in ot it’s a shame josh missed that throw so badly.  It was pretty surreal listening to them talk about their elite preparation after that game 😂. They left just about everything open on that final play but the decoy post route that we wanted them to cover haha 

 

the problem with gabe doesn’t seem to be the route running to me…he gets open plenty he just is dropping too many passes and not making enough contested catches 

Should have done some of that elite preparation before the Cowboys game.

[Donuts and Doritos]

As previously mentioned by others: 2nd worst catch % in the league @ 52.7% (see link below).

 

Tied for 3rd most drops w/ 5 (one in the end zone @ end of Mia game was brutal & would have won it). (See link to list below. Interesting Kelce is tied for 1st). 

 

He needs to step up & be much more consistent.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/who-has-the-lowest-catch-percentage-among-wide-receivers

 

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Donuts and Doritos

[CSBill]

Always good to hear from the players agents here on TBD. Thanks for checking in @folz

 

On a serious note: Gabe has become the latest in a long line of TBD whipping boys. He's not been that bad. Yes, he's had his moments, and as folz points out, injuries have not helped him this year. But he is still a big threat and gets respect from opponents. I'm confident he'll bounce back. Still a lot of football to be played this season.

[BillnutinHouston]

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Gabe Davis runs 3 routes apparently. 

 

Interesting analysis.  So you're asserting either that Dorsey only calls plays that involve 3 different routes for Davis, or that Davis repeatedly ignores the play Dorsey calls and runs his own 3 routes regardless of what Dorsey calls.

 

Think about that.  Want to stick with that analysis?

 

 

[BananaB]

5 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Thanks for your manifesto.  He almost blew the game with fumbling the onsides kick

 

Another drop on third down ended an early drive. Ball went right between his hands