The ease of 3rd & long against the Bills

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

They also blitzed a bunch in the first half and paid for it.

 

 

The only way to be in position to get your head around is to win on the first 5 yards of the route; if you don't win the beginning, you can't win the end.

And winning early on the corner is very difficult to do when your D is selling out to stop an opponent's ground attack and you have minimal help over the top.

Not on 3rd downs though.

 

A lot of run blitzes on 2nd downs and Cleveland just guessed right and threw it

 

I am talking on obvious passing 3rd and longs

[smuvtalker]

Nope, I don't think you're overreacting at all.  I agree with you wholeheartedly.  

 

I don't mean to simplify this, but in my opinion, it really has got to be one thing moreso than anything else.... injuries.  

 

No other area on the team has been ravaged by injuries as much as our secondary has, and that's just a fact.  For the entire season, we've started two rookies at the CB positions, and BOTH rookies have missed time due to injuries, so on top of standard rookie growing pains, neither is playing at 100% right now.  One of our safeties is out for the year, the other has missed half the season...and the dropoff in talent is SIGNIFICANT.  Let's face it, Hamlin has performed admirably, and done everything we've asked of him, but he's no Hyde, and Johnson has been brutal at times.  

You give me a healthy Tre White starting opposite Dane Jackson, Taron in the slot, with the rookies coming off the bench, with a healthy Poyer and Hyde, and I can promise you we don't see the same struggles on 3rd and infinity.  Dare I even say, this team could very well be 9-1 or even 10-0.  

[Reks Ryan]

48 minutes ago, Success said:

I feel like this goes back to the Houston playoff game.  The Bills seem to give up more 3rd and double-digit yards than any team I've seen.

 

Note: this is not a scientific observation.  There are probably stats for this, but I don't know where to find them.  

 

But man, does it seem like that's a bad down for us. I feel more confident when the other team has 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 14.  

 

What gives?  Am I overreacting?  

Yes

[HoofHearted]

46 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

What makes it worse is we are all yelling…. Double team Cooper, Double team Jefferson last week… play happens they go to Cooper or Jefferson and FIRST DOWN!!! FML!!! How??? How!??!!!

They did double Jefferson - like the whole game. We sat in 2-man more than I’ve ever seen us before.

[chongli]

31 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Our Zone DBs are too small and weak to win on jump balls against the size of NFL WRs nowadays. They get out-muscled every time.

 

Time to draft DB's early in the draft next year! 😆

[Big Blitz]

What is true is every single QB since week 2 except for Pickett has been good to great against us - can make the case Rodgers and Lamar (in rain) were the 2 meh performances.   
 

And shoot even Pickett was ok.  
 

 

[Dr.Sack]

When Brissett went for 22 yards on 3rd and long early I have to admit, I felt deja vu.

[Billz4ever]

54 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

It’s a lot of rush 4, 2 deep shell with 0 disguise.

 

The bills actually blitzed a few times on 3rd and long in the 2nd half and guess what?

 

It worked.. lol.

 

Frazier needs to stop being so predictable/conservative, especially when the front 4 is getting minimal pass rush 

Exactly. The blitzes were a nice surprise and I wish we'd be willing to use it more often on those 3rd downs to at least get better pressure on the QB and force the bad throw vs getting our secondary exposed because the QB has time.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Billz4ever

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

TBH, the coverage is there and usually very tight. I chalk it up to just some really great throws lately, and some bad luck. On that Cooper TD, Johnson had his arm between Cooper and the ball and he is still caught it. What else is he supposed to do? 

You're correct about this.  Against the Browns and against the Vikings, it was amazing how many throws were to receivers with a defender right there.  Excellent throws.  

 

And I also agree that missing Hyde makes a difference.  And missing White.  And no Poyer against the Vikings.   All you can expect from a deep back is an occasional pass breakup, but the Bills are getting essentially none now.  

 

Still, the original post is correct.  It seems like the longer the third down is, the more likely it is the opponent will convert.  It's horrible.  And it's a problem that they need to address.  

[Airseven]

1 hour ago, Success said:

I feel like this goes back to the Houston playoff game.  The Bills seem to give up more 3rd and double-digit yards than any team I've seen.

 

Note: this is not a scientific observation.  There are probably stats for this, but I don't know where to find them.  

 

But man, does it seem like that's a bad down for us. I feel more confident when the other team has 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 14.  

 

What gives?  Am I overreacting?  

This is both fair and seemingly accurate. And so much worse given how weak the offense is on 3rd and short. It’s a vicious cycle of fan frustration.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Playoffs? said:

It’s truly maddening, especially in the past couple weeks. Im going to pin it on injuries to the defense, and that’s all.  Our backup secondary is not excellent. 

I think our backup secondary is excellent compared to other backup secondary’s. I think they’re “meh” as a starting unit. Jackson has had a tough two weeks. Unfortunate, I’m high on him. 
 

I am a bit disappointed in DL. We paid Von, and spent a million top 100 picks on those guys, I expect a ton of production against the run and pass even when injured. 

[Playoffs?]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think our backup secondary is excellent compared to other backup secondary’s. I think they’re “meh” as a starting unit. Jackson has had a tough two weeks. Unfortunate, I’m high on him. 
 

I am a bit disappointed in DL. We paid Von, and spent a million top 100 picks on those guys, I expect a ton of production against the run and pass even when injured. 

Yeah I hear ya. Need to get Groot back out there. They can’t double Von and Groot. Oliver looked better today, but at no point in his career has he played like a dominant first round pick… yet. 
 

Our starting secondary will also lead to more coverage sacks.  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You're correct about this.  Against the Browns and against the Vikings, it was amazing how many throws were to receivers with a defender right there.  Excellent throws.  

 

And I also agree that missing Hyde makes a difference.  And missing White.  And no Poyer against the Vikings.   All you can expect from a deep back is an occasional pass breakup, but the Bills are getting essentially none now.  

 

Still, the original post is correct.  It seems like the longer the third down is, the more likely it is the opponent will convert.  It's horrible.  And it's a problem that they need to address.  

I went back And looked at some of these big completions today. There was a great catch by peoples-jones down the sideline with Dane right on him. DPJ extended his arm out and got separation and hauled it in. That is one they call OPI on 9 times out of 10. 
 

Then, on the last TD, it was just a jump ball between Dane and DPJ, and DPJ just ripped it away. 

A few times Dane and Benford had good coverage, but just didn’t get their head back around and arm up in time. And a few other times, Taron seemed to get just beat— I think they asked him to play more man on Cooper today, and that is a tough assignment. 
 

Overall, if there is something correctible here, it’s the DBs need to get their heads around and play the ball more aggressively. I wouldn’t mind if they got more handsy than they have been too, even if it means some penalties. 

[SinceThe70s]

At the same time I feel like we've been better than expected short yardage at the goal line the past few years - didn't we stop the Browns 5 straight from short and goal a few years ago?

 

Back to topic, I agree that injuries have contributed to the 3rd and long issues.

Edited November 21, 2022 by SinceThe70s

[Roundybout]

I think the guys on WGR put it really well tonight: 

 

Frazier still calls a defense as if he has every one of his starters playing, including White and Hyde, and won't scheme anything different. He puts an insane amount of responsibility on his players, even lesser players like Jaquan Johnson. 

 

It doesn't work. We have the talent still, but he isn't using it right. I don't know if it was him or McD that called the blitzes later, but they worked really well and made Brissette uncomfortable. 

[zow2]

The Bills seem to allow the opposing QB to be way too comfortable on 3rd and longs.  Too much time to survey the field.  I know Von and the linemen are trying to get there but too often they can’t. I’d bring extra rushers to make the QB have to rush 

[SBbeliever]

Too many lightweight tacklers in our back four.  Poyer makes it better, but the rest look a bit skinny & tentative.

[TFBillsfan]

In addition to the secondary, rarely does the DL beat their man one on one outside of Von. Watching other teams it seems to happen more frequently 

 

For example, I counted 3 times today that Bates totally whiffed on his man. For all the money and draft capital that went into the front four they have to start making a bigger impact. Especially with a depleted secondary.

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

They did double Jefferson - like the whole game. We sat in 2-man more than I’ve ever seen us before.

A more experienced DB in that 4th and long that Jefferson made that miraculous catch on in the Vikings game would have punched it out instead of trying to intercept it. A breakup on 4th down would have given us better field position than an interception. That would have basically ended the game. 

[BuffaloRebound]

How many of those passes even get thrown if there’s a fear of getting picked off?  Hyde, Poyer, and White were ballhawks. Now we’re down to Poyer when he’s not injured.