The ease of 3rd & long against the Bills

[Success]

I feel like this goes back to the Houston playoff game.  The Bills seem to give up more 3rd and double-digit yards than any team I've seen.

 

Note: this is not a scientific observation.  There are probably stats for this, but I don't know where to find them.  

 

But man, does it seem like that's a bad down for us. I feel more confident when the other team has 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 14.  

 

What gives?  Am I overreacting?  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Success said:

I feel like this goes back to the Houston playoff game.  The Bills seem to give up more 3rd and double-digit yards than any team I've seen.

 

Note: this is not a scientific observation.  There are probably stats for this, but I don't know where to find them.  

 

But man, does it seem like that's a bad down for us. I feel more confident when the other team has 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 14.  

 

What gives?  Am I overreacting?  

No, it boggles the mind that a nickel-heavy defense gives up so many third/fourth and longs

 

[Playoffs?]

1 minute ago, Success said:

I feel like this goes back to the Houston playoff game.  The Bills seem to give up more 3rd and double-digit yards than any team I've seen.

 

Note: this is not a scientific observation.  There are probably stats for this, but I don't know where to find them.  

 

But man, does it seem like that's a bad down for us. I feel more confident when the other team has 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 14.  

 

What gives?  Am I overreacting?  

It’s truly maddening, especially in the past couple weeks. Im going to pin it on injuries to the defense, and that’s all.  Our backup secondary is not excellent. 

[CEN-CAL17]

What makes it worse is we are all yelling…. Double team Cooper, Double team Jefferson last week… play happens they go to Cooper or Jefferson and FIRST DOWN!!! FML!!! How??? How!??!!!

[Joe Ferguson]

Hyde not playing is the reason. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

TBH, the coverage is there and usually very tight. I chalk it up to just some really great throws lately, and some bad luck. On that Cooper TD, Johnson had his arm between Cooper and the ball and he is still caught it. What else is he supposed to do? 

[TheCockSportif]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

TBH, the coverage is there and usually very tight. I chalk it up to just some really great throws lately, and some bad luck. On that Cooper TD, Johnson had his arm between Cooper and the ball and he is still caught it. What else is he supposed to do? 

I was kind of thinking that Johnson might throw a grenade at the receiver, thus eliminating any potential for YAC.  Sure it's a felony outside of the game, but otherwise it's an ejection and a personal foul.  Such is life in the NFL.  HAHA!

[LABILLBACKER]

7 minutes ago, Success said:

I feel like this goes back to the Houston playoff game.  The Bills seem to give up more 3rd and double-digit yards than any team I've seen.

 

Note: this is not a scientific observation.  There are probably stats for this, but I don't know where to find them.  

 

But man, does it seem like that's a bad down for us. I feel more confident when the other team has 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 14.  

 

What gives?  Am I overreacting?  

The only over-reaction is people overly using the term over- reaction.  And yes we're giving up 3rd & 10+ way too often.

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, Success said:

I feel like this goes back to the Houston playoff game.  The Bills seem to give up more 3rd and double-digit yards than any team I've seen.

 

Note: this is not a scientific observation.  There are probably stats for this, but I don't know where to find them.  

 

But man, does it seem like that's a bad down for us. I feel more confident when the other team has 3rd and 5 than 3rd and 14.  

 

What gives?  Am I overreacting?  

 

The Bills were really good on those usually up until this year when the rookies and injuries caught up to the secondary.

 

Pass D has been not great and definitely not up to the #1 in the NFL standard it set for the last 5 years.

 

3 All Pros being out for large chunks of the season makes a big difference

Edited November 21, 2022 by Big Turk

[GunnerBill]

At the moment it is a specific problem linked to too many backup level players on the field in the secondary. Generally they have been a very good 3rd down defense. But they are struggling at the moment and it coincides with an injured secondary. I submit that is not a coincidence.

[Solomon Grundy]

Teams have been throwing jump ball passes towards Dane and he hasn't adjusted to it. 

[Process]

There have been a lot of circus catches against us the last two games (bad luck), and we've consistently been missing 3-4 players in the secondary all year. 

 

It wasn't an issue before.

[buffblue]

6 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Teams have been throwing jump ball passes towards Dane and he hasn't adjusted to it. 

Dane is consistently in good coverage but rarely makes a play on the ball. Getting his head turned would certainly help

Edited November 21, 2022 by buffblue

[TheCockSportif]

1 minute ago, buffblue said:

Dane is consistently in good coverage but never rarely makes a play on the ball. Getting his head turned would certainly help

I'm not sure if coaching can help this, but certainly a viewing of the movie "The Exorcist" could be a guide.  Talk about head on a swivel...

[DrDawkinstein]

Our Zone DBs are too small and weak to win on jump balls against the size of NFL WRs nowadays. They get out-muscled every time.

[BillsFan130]

It’s a lot of rush 4, 2 deep shell with 0 disguise.

 

The bills actually blitzed a few times on 3rd and long in the 2nd half and guess what?

 

It worked.. lol.

 

Frazier needs to stop being so predictable/conservative, especially when the front 4 is getting minimal pass rush 

[Boatdrinks]

Frazier / McD can’t play that same conservative style without a lot of elite players. Time for them to do some real coaching and not just say “ here run my system”. They’re being far too rigid for the talent level. 

[Simon]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

It’s a lot of rush 4, 2 deep shell with 0 disguise.

 

The bills actually blitzed a few times on 3rd and long in the 2nd half and guess what?

 

It worked.. lol.

 

Frazier needs to stop being so predictable/conservative, especially when the front 4 is getting minimal pass rush 

 

They also blitzed a bunch in the first half and paid for it.

 

5 minutes ago, buffblue said:

Dane is consistently in good coverage but rarely makes a play on the ball. Getting his head turned would certainly help

 

The only way to be in position to get your head around is to win on the first 5 yards of the route; if you don't win the beginning, you can't win the end.

And winning early on the corner is very difficult to do when your D is selling out to stop an opponent's ground attack and you have minimal help over the top.

[Paup 1995MVP]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Our Zone DBs are too small and weak to win on jump balls against the size of NFL WRs nowadays. They get out-muscled every time.

Great point.  Jackson gets bodied off the ball on almost every one on one situation.  And Taron Johnson looked overmatched as well.  I like T Johnson in run defense better then pass coverage.  

[Maybe Someday]

When the 4 man rush doesn’t get home in front of that zone D they usually convert. 
 

Our DBs need to turn around and play the ball at least a little. I’m guessing inexperience has something to do with that.