Sean McDermott is the current longest tenured NFL head coach without a Super Bowl appearance.

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The contention from @Chaos is the right one - that believeing NFL success is about a slow methodical year by year build that inevitably concludes with a Superbowl - is misguided. 

 

It is, as he says, more about catching lightening in a bottle. The Rams were not the best team in football in 2021. The Bengals weren't even top 5. That was the Superbowl. It is lightening in a bottle. 

 

But the conclusion he makes that McDermott as a result should be on the hot seat is flawed. The acknowledgment that it is lightening in the bottle is a tacit acknowledgment of the element of randomness that is part of the NFL's appeal. The fact that McDermott and Allen are in year 5 together does not make it any less likely that they catch lightening in a bottle this year, or next year, than it was last year or the year after. 

 

There are legitimate reasons to ask questions of McDermott and the staff. This mid season slump for a second consecutive year with the #1 seed at their mercy is concerning. But the idea that lightening in a bottle can't still happen to them is for the birds. As a soccer coach I used to play for always used to say "sometimes a door can just be pushed open, sometimes you have to spend 89 minutes knocking before someone lets you in."

 

 

It's not all randomness though.  It's the pairing of a very good HC with a potential HOF QB often times.  "In today's NFL", look at recent SB winners.   Rams weren't the best in the NFL, but that was a loaded team--then they picked up Stafford (and Miller and OBJ).  McVay is considered possibly one who could be one "of the best HC's in NFL history" someday.  Then there is Arians getting Brady and...instant SB ring.  Andy Reid had a long career of SB/NFCC  futility...until Mahomes walked through the door.   BB stumbled on to Brady for a hand and a thumb's worth of rings. 

 

McD has had Josh from day 1.  If they don't make it this year, there is no reason to believe, by definition of the phrase, that  there is a future "lightning in a bottle" for this combo.

[Saxum]

Youngest head coach who won Superbowl did it after team moved to new stadium.

Clearly that is most important factor.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

What I am saying is it's McDermott first time as HC and many of those on the list failed many times before they got onto a team that won a Super Bowl.

 

It's why the half completed list doesn't tell the real story.

 

Your point and Chaos are both in synchrony though. McDermott could get fired after next season if the Bills continue to fail postseason expectations. McDermott would land with another team and if that team has a good QB and he establishes the culture and lifts the defense McDermott and new QB would win a Super Bowl in the first 4 seasons together. Meanwhile, still a good chance Josh Allen and new QB also win a super bowl in first 4 seasons together. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It is interesting but I question how many of those teams fired their coaches after 2-3 years that would have won one anyways if they stuck with said coach.  

 

Good question. The fact is we just rarely see teams hold onto non super bowl winning coaches for 10+ seasons anymore. Heck, even super bowl winning coaches have been canned in far less than 10 seasons after winning a super bowl. It would be interesting to go back and see in hindsight which teams seemed poised for a super bowl in the coming years regardless of who the coach was. That would be tricky though because you would have to filter out quite a few bad teams. 

 

Andy Reid in Philly has to be the poster child of a team believing in a non super bowl winning coach. Reid lasted 14 seasons. Ultimately he couldn't save his job from his final two seasons in Philly which saw the Eagles fall from 10-6 (WC lost) to 8-8 no playoffs and finally 4-12.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

But the conclusion he makes that McDermott as a result should be on the hot seat is flawed.

 

 

I think the key is to look through things through lenses of an NFL owner or executive. It's not the fans that will decide if he is or isn't on the hot seat. And the list of super bowl winning coaches that Chaos shared suggested that it's more likely than not that very soon our own owners/GM will put McDermott on the hot seat. Owners have to find a scapegoat. They won't fire themselves. They may think it is easier to replace a quality coach than a quality GM. And everyone in the entire building knows the franchise QB isn't going anywhere.

 

That said, I do think the Bills currently constructed are one of the better well-run organizations with all pieces on the same page. I could see McDermott being the next Philly/Andy Reid should the Bills not win a super bowl in the coming 5 years. McDermott could survive. But history is against it.

[Freddie's Dead]

You lost me when you misspelled the first three names lon your list.

[MJS]

Now do one with win percentage.

 

Coaches do not usually go on the hot seat for winning a lot of games in the regular season and winning games in the post season.

 

Bills fans are NOT patient. They are just powerless to make any changes. Otherwise, McDermott would have been gone before the end of his first year. And Josh Allen would not have even taken a snap for the Bills because fans would have traded him for Josh Rosen.

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I think the key is to look through things through lenses of an NFL owner or executive. It's not the fans that will decide if he is or isn't on the hot seat. And the list of super bowl winning coaches that Chaos shared suggested that it's more likely than not that very soon our own owners/GM will put McDermott on the hot seat. Owners have to find a scapegoat. They won't fire themselves. They may think it is easier to replace a quality coach than a quality GM. And everyone in the entire building knows the franchise QB isn't going anywhere.

 

That said, I do think the Bills currently constructed are one of the better well-run organizations with all pieces on the same page. I could see McDermott being the next Philly/Andy Reid should the Bills not win a super bowl in the coming 5 years. McDermott could survive. But history is against it.

 

Oh if McDermott doesn't win one in the next 5 years he is gone. I am not even sure he will get 5 years. This year, next year, possibly one after that. 

[KHAN]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

Now do one with win percentage.

 

Coaches do not usually go on the hot seat for winning a lot of games in the regular season and winning games in the post season.

 

Bills fans are NOT patient. They are just powerless to make any changes. Otherwise, McDermott would have been gone before the end of his first year. And Josh Allen would not have even taken a snap for the Bills because fans would have traded him for Josh Rosen.

It becomes uncomfortable when a staff passes 3 years here because it's pretty much unprecedented in this century.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

It's not all randomness though.  It's the pairing of a very good HC with a potential HOF QB often times.  "In today's NFL", look at recent SB winners.   Rams weren't the best in the NFL, but that was a loaded team--then they picked up Stafford (and Miller and OBJ).  McVay is considered possibly one who could be one "of the best HC's in NFL history" someday.  Then there is Arians getting Brady and...instant SB ring.  Andy Reid had a long career of SB/NFCC  futility...until Mahomes walked through the door.   BB stumbled on to Brady for a hand and a thumb's worth of rings. 

 

McD has had Josh from day 1.  If they don't make it this year, there is no reason to believe, by definition of the phrase, that  there is a future "lightning in a bottle" for this combo.

 

No it is not all randomness. But there is a strong element of it year to year. I don't think it not happening this year would make me think there is no reason to believe it could happen next year. 

 

That isn't to say that McDermott gets forever to have his lightening in a bottle moment. A couple more playoff failures and you have to look at whether there is a better option (not that it will be easy to find). But the scrutiny he is getting for the last two weeks is way overblown IMO. The horrible mistakes have been on the field. 

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

No it is not all randomness. But there is a strong element of it year to year. I don't think it not happening this year would make me think there is no reason to believe it could happen next year. 

 

That isn't to say that McDermott gets forever to have his lightening in a bottle moment. A couple more playoff failures and you have to look at whether there is a better option (not that it will be easy to find). But the scrutiny he is getting for the last two weeks is way overblown IMO. The horrible mistakes have been on the field. 

 

My point was that for McCoy, Reid, Arians, BB... "lightning in a bottle" didn't take 5 years to strike.

[BBills_88]

That will change shortly.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

My point was that for McCoy, Reid, Arians, BB... "lightning in a bottle" didn't take 5 years to strike.

 

I get that, but those situations don't make any difference to where the Bills are at.

[Saxum]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Now do one with win percentage.

 

Coaches do not usually go on the hot seat for winning a lot of games in the regular season and winning games in the post season.

 

Bills fans are NOT patient. They are just powerless to make any changes. Otherwise, McDermott would have been gone before the end of his first year. And Josh Allen would not have even taken a snap for the Bills because fans would have traded him for Josh Rosen.

 

Many fans should be patient - patients in a psych ward.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Limeaid

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No it is not all randomness. But there is a strong element of it year to year. I don't think it not happening this year would make me think there is no reason to believe it could happen next year. 

 

That isn't to say that McDermott gets forever to have his lightening in a bottle moment. A couple more playoff failures and you have to look at whether there is a better option (not that it will be easy to find). But the scrutiny he is getting for the last two weeks is way overblown IMO. The horrible mistakes have been on the field. 

Here's my issue: when we win, it is because Josh Allen is amazing, and Ken Dorsey called good plays, and the defense has some good talent and players, and Frazier is a good DC. When we lose it is because of McDermott (plus the few whipping boys we have as players).

 

McDermott is never given credit for wins (by the fans who hate him) and is ALWAYS blamed for every loss or misfortune.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 minutes ago, MJS said:

Here's my issue: when we win, it is because Josh Allen is amazing, and Ken Dorsey called good plays, and the defense has some good talent and players, and Frazier is a good DC. When we lose it is because of McDermott (plus the few whipping boys we have as players).

 

McDermott is never given credit for wins (by the fans who hate him) and is ALWAYS blamed for every loss or misfortune.

 

Josh Allen has been getting crushed after this two-game losing streak more so than McDermott. As he should be. He knows he has to be better.

 

But if the Bills fall on their face this year and miss the playoffs, who are you going to can if you have to can one? McDermott or Allen? McDermott would be canned without hesitation even if Allen finishes the year leading the league in INT's as he currently does.

[Einstein]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The acknowledgment that it is lightening in the bottle is a tacit acknowledgment of the element of randomness 

 

Im not so sure that history shows that is random when you look at the big picture. A few years of randomness doesn’t misplace decades of opposite proof.

 

Belichick, McVay, Reid, and Tomlin have been in 15 of the last 21 Super Bowl’s.

 

Before that - Gibbs, Walsh, Parcells and Levy were in 11 of 15 Super Bowls.

 

Before that - Knoll, Landry, Madden and Shula were in 10 straight Super Bowls.

 

I don’t see much randomness in at least making a Super Bowl appearance. It seems like, outside of the random lighting in a bottle teams that make up a small percentage of Super Bowl appearances, sustained success coaches make up the majority of Super Bowl appearances and you either have one of those coaches or you don’t. 

 

 

[Einstein]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh if McDermott doesn't win one in the next 5 years he is gone. I am not even sure he will get 5 years. This year, next year, possibly one after that. 

 

Agreed that 5 years would be too long. Allen would be going into 11th season with a new head coach. Not ideal.

 

I think it’s likely they would move on from McDermott the same season that the new stadium is unveiled, which would be 3 more seasons. New digs, new coach, new direction, get the fans hyped up, etc. 

[MJS]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Josh Allen has been getting crushed after this two-game losing streak more so than McDermott. As he should be. He knows he has to be better.

 

But if the Bills fall on their face this year and miss the playoffs, who are you going to can if you have to can one? McDermott or Allen? McDermott would be canned without hesitation even if Allen finishes the year leading the league in INT's as he currently does.

Bull. McDermott has received WAY more criticism than Allen, as if McDermott is out there throwing the game sealing INT's.

 

I don't want to fire either of them. I hope they are both the Bills combo for the next decade plus.

[GunnerBill]

54 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Im not so sure that history shows that is random when you look at the big picture. A few years of randomness doesn’t misplace decades of opposite proof.

 

Belichick, McVay, Reid, and Tomlin have been in 15 of the last 21 Super Bowl’s.

 

Before that - Gibbs, Walsh, Parcells and Levy were in 11 of 15 Super Bowls.

 

Before that - Knoll, Landry, Madden and Shula were in 10 straight Super Bowls.

 

I don’t see much randomness in at least making a Super Bowl appearance. It seems like, outside of the random lighting in a bottle teams that make up a small percentage of Super Bowl appearances, sustained success coaches make up the majority of Super Bowl appearances and you either have one of those coaches or you don’t. 

 

 

So that is 15 of 42 appearances. About a third. Of which BB is 8 of those. Yea. Once you take him out it is still pretty random.

 

I am not saying coaching doesn't matter. Or that there are not good coaches, bad coaches and those in the middle. But Sean Payton is a great coach. He made 1 Superbowl. John Fox is a meh coach. He made 2.

 

30 minutes ago, MJS said:

Bull. McDermott has received WAY more criticism than Allen, as if McDermott is out there throwing the game sealing INT's.

 

I don't want to fire either of them. I hope they are both the Bills combo for the next decade plus.

 

I agree. I wouldn't can either. For me to want to fire McDermott after this season the Bills would have to miss the playoffs. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by GunnerBill