Sean McDermott = Best in the NFL on 4th Down Decisions

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

What would you consider to be a defensive implosion though?  In losses against Miami and NYJ they held both teams to 21 and 20 points.  
 

Last week, they allowed 26 point to Minnesota.  The defense also had Minnesota right where they wanted them in 4th and long when one of the best players in the NFL made a fluke catch against a replacement level backup.  And the defense put the Bills on a position to win.  

Don’t forget:

 

2019: McDermott can’t beat Belichick

2020: McDermott can’t beat Belichick when it matters

2021: Belichick is in McDermott’s head

I believe it’s all probably based on similar situations in the past.  

That’s only if you assume everything unfolds the exact same way, which it likely wouldn’t.

 

Keep in mind, even with everything that happened all the Bills had to do was to snap the ball twice at the goal one and they win. 

 

Why would it play any different?  The only difference would be the kickoff instead of them starting at the 30. I fail to see what would change based on this alone.  Vikings were still behind.  Why would they not still get stuffed on 4th and goal just because we would have kicked a FG instead of throwing an INT?  Its not like the Vikings werent already going for it on 4th down. Its not like they still werent trying to score TDs.  Its not like they were able to run the clock.  I dont see anything else changing.  I guess they could have ran back a TD on the kickoff instead of starting from the 30.  How likely is that to happen?

Edited November 17, 2022 by Scott7975

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would bet that exactly zero people who post these charts have any idea where the calculation comes from. Is it team specific? Does it account for the flow of the game? Personally I think it's all junk statistics that everyone has decided to believe without questioning.

Ben Baldwin is the creator of these charts.  I’m sure you can find how he calculates these numbers.  
 

I definitely wouldn’t call them “junk science” considering how all teams have embraced analytics.  Nearly every team uses or at least refers to these metrics for 2 point conversions.  With that being said, much like any probability, it’s not an exact predictor.  
 

So if your FG kicker is 80% from 40-50 yards away, it’s a good indicator of success but not a predictive one.  That’s what this chart reveals, when teams should go it on for 4th down when the numbers are in their favor.  

Edited November 17, 2022 by JohnNord

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Im fine with the decision either way but what people neglect is that by kicking a FG yes, we would still only be up by two scores but lets say the Vikings went and scored a TD... us going down and just scoring another field goal would again put us up two scores.  

 

Also in this particular case, it kind of goes to show that while the math of the analytics may be right... had we kicked the field goal we would have won in regulation so was it really right?

hated hated HATED the call. Completely shifts the moment if they stop it which it obviously did. You’re right. Even if Minny scores a TD on their next drive, a FG makes it 2 scores again. Sometimes you have to throw the analytics book out and trust your highly paid defense to fend them off and if not, for your 100 million dollar QB to answer back. I understand the call, but it’s not what I would’ve done. I’m just a fan so what do I know? Lost by 3 points. I feel like this is a call u make when you’re not up 2 scores to begin with and your defense is playing well up until that point. 
 

Edit: I’d love to know the enhanced stats for Bills win % if they kicked the FG. 

Edited November 17, 2022 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

hated hated HATED the call. Completely shifts the moment if they stop it which it obviously did. You’re right. Even if Minny scores a TD on their next drive, a FG makes it 2 scores again. Sometimes you have to throw the analytics book out and trust your highly paid defense to fend them off and if not, for your 100 million dollar QB to answer back. I understand the call, but it’s not what I would’ve done. I’m just a fan so what do I know? Lost by 3 points. I feel like this is a call u make when you’re not up 2 scores to begin with and your defense is playing well up until that point. 
 

Edit: I’d love to know the enhanced stats for Bills win % if they kicked the FG. 

 

Yeah, I am with you.

[LABILLBACKER]

18 hours ago, Beast said:

The curious part of McDermott is the absolute defensive implosions we have witnessed late in games.

 

I haven’t questioned a whole lot about the offense and decisions made when we have the ball, in years.

Exacty, as others have said he's more aggressive now because of Josh.  But what about his expertise? Where's the clutch 4th down defense?  Where was it up 16-0 in Houston. Where was it in the 20' AFCCG?  How about that aggressiveness with 13 seconds left. I have no issues being aggressive 70% of the time with JA17.  But when do we get to see that aggressive on the defensive side of the ball?

[T master]

18 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Despite some of the tried narratives and misplaced anger from Sunday, when it comes down to 4th down decisions Sean McDermott is far and away the best in league. 
 

It doesn’t always work out, and many times the result clouds the judgement on whether it was the “right” decision.  Still it’s good to know we have a coach that follows the math and puts the team in the best position to win.  

 

 

BUT BUT BUT !!! 

[ddaryl]

most of those 4th downs shouldn't have happened ..  We should be doing a better job with 3 downs IMO. 

Its nice to convert of course, but we shouldn't be in that position as much as we have...

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

most of those 4th downs shouldn't have happened ..  We should be doing a better job with 3 downs IMO. 

Its nice to convert of course, but we shouldn't be in that position as much as we have...

That’s fair… but that’s more of a conversation about Dorsey’s coaching than McDermott

[Airseven]

McDermott has so many of these 4th down opportunities because his offense is such a catastrophe on 3rd and short.

[DCofNC]

On 11/16/2022 at 6:53 PM, JohnNord said:

Not at all true - who do you think makes the call?  It’s not the analytics dept
 

He has the same 4th down data that other coaches do.  Some coaches simply refuse use the info for decisions.  Others consider it but default to arbitrary measures like “feel” or momentum.  I give him credit for embracing the philosophy.

On Sunday, I didn’t mind the call.  I probably would’ve kicked the FG but that only puts the team up for 2 scores and still leaves the door open for Minnesota to creep back.  A TD in that situation puts the game out of reach with a 3 score lead.  
 

Plus, even if the Bills fail on 4th, Minnesota has the ball on the 7 and still have to drive all the way downfield.  The problem was the execution - Josh throws and INT which gets returned to the 40 giving Minnesota a short field.  

Remind me again, is it harder to score two TDs or a TD and a FG when you’re coming back?  I thought that was aggressive for no reason, especially if Josh wasn’t going to be willing to run, which it looked like he wasn’t.

[reddogblitz]

On 11/16/2022 at 6:47 PM, JohnNord said:

Despite some of the tried narratives and misplaced anger from Sunday, when it comes down to 4th down decisions Sean McDermott is far and away the best in league. 
 

It doesn’t always work out, and many times the result clouds the judgement on whether it was the “right” decision.  Still it’s good to know we have a coach that follows the math and puts the team in the best position to win.  

 

Whatever. Take the points.

[reddogblitz]

On 11/16/2022 at 9:22 PM, Mr. WEO said:

How is he on 1st down from his own 1 inch line?

 

Why does that matter?

[wagon127]

Everybody who is mad about the decision to go for it on 4th and 2, I think forgot how many games we won, based on decisions like that. The bad call, was not having a check down option on the play.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Good to hear.

 

I think its downs 1, 2, and 3 that screw McD up

[reddogblitz]

Has anyone ever won anything embracing Analytics to make all their decisions?

 

I am not a fan of this approach and prefer to take the points.

 

Analytics is based on historical data from all the teams.  So it takes into account Tom Brady doing sneaks successfully many times.  Teams that aren't good at sneaks will do it less.  Seems that would skew the successful percentage up. Also the defense you are playing that day and how their playing and the score are more important things to consider than what other teams have done in the past with different players, weather, etc.

 

Monday Night The Commanders won a game with 4 FGs 2TDs.  I remember once the Cowboys beat the Packers 21-0 on 7 FGs.  You don't have to score 40 points to win most games.  

 

I also wonder if you do everything by the analytics sheet,  will you be Telegraph ing your decisions to the other side? They got the same sheet.

 

Unless its a game on the line situation, 4th down is for kicking IMHO.

Edited November 18, 2022 by reddogblitz

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Why does that matter?

 

The situation came up recently

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The situation came up recently

 

I understand. But what does it have to do with Josh fumbling? Sounds like a lame excuse to me.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

 

Winning percentage of the 10 teams that go for it the most = 0.484

 

Winning percentage of the 10 teams that go for it the least= 0.489

 

Winning percentage of the 12 teams in the middle= 0.522

[Mr. WEO]

14 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I understand. But what does it have to do with Josh fumbling? Sounds like a lame excuse to me.

 

other than it  was an absolutely idiotic play call..?  lame indeed....

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

other than it  was an absolutely idiotic play call..?  lame indeed....

 

Indeed.  But Josh still shouldn't have fumbled.  Lot of blame to go around here.  No one gets a pass.

Edited November 19, 2022 by reddogblitz