Sean McDermott = Best in the NFL on 4th Down Decisions

[JohnNord]

Despite some of the tried narratives and misplaced anger from Sunday, when it comes down to 4th down decisions Sean McDermott is far and away the best in league. 
 

It doesn’t always work out, and many times the result clouds the judgement on whether it was the “right” decision.  Still it’s good to know we have a coach that follows the math and puts the team in the best position to win.  

[Nextmanup]

And very aggressive too.

That's not a McDermott thing, that's a Buffalo Bills Analytics Department thing.

 

McDermott has nothing to do with that stuff.

 

 

[Process]

No surprise at all. Love his aggression and it's almost always the right call despite what the talking heads and some here will say. 

 

Play calling and execution can be an issue however.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Process

[JohnNord]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

And very aggressive too.

That's not a McDermott thing, that's a Buffalo Bills Analytics Department thing.

 

McDermott has nothing to do with that stuff.

 

 

Not at all true - who do you think makes the call?  It’s not the analytics dept
 

He has the same 4th down data that other coaches do.  Some coaches simply refuse use the info for decisions.  Others consider it but default to arbitrary measures like “feel” or momentum.  I give him credit for embracing the philosophy.

5 minutes ago, Process said:

No surprise at all. Love his aggression and it's almost always the right call despite what the talking heads and some here will say. 

 

Play calling and execution are the issue. 

On Sunday, I didn’t mind the call.  I probably would’ve kicked the FG but that only puts the team up for 2 scores and still leaves the door open for Minnesota to creep back.  A TD in that situation puts the game out of reach with a 3 score lead.  
 

Plus, even if the Bills fail on 4th, Minnesota has the ball on the 7 and still have to drive all the way downfield.  The problem was the execution - Josh throws and INT which gets returned to the 40 giving Minnesota a short field.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

He is aggressive about going for it because his QB is a rock star. It’s the right thing to do right now. Going for it was the right call, just needed to go for a first down before going for the TD. 

[Beast]

The curious part of McDermott is the absolute defensive implosions we have witnessed late in games.

 

I haven’t questioned a whole lot about the offense and decisions made when we have the ball, in years.

[PonyBoy]

8 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Despite some of the tried narratives and misplaced anger from Sunday, when it comes down to 4th down decisions Sean McDermott is far and away the best in league. 
 

It doesn’t always work out, and many times the result clouds the judgement on whether it was the “right” decision.  Still it’s good to know we have a coach that follows the math and puts the team in the best position to win.  

 

I was fine with the decision. I figured if the Bills made it and we're up by 13. The Vikings would probably score a TD and be down by 6 Then the BBFS would take over. Probably resulting in a hail Mary or final drive for the BILLS to lose by one. Not making it on 4th down Vikings likely score TD, but not go for another TD down by 3 and shoot for OT  Just my opinion after watching many years of the NFL and Buffalo.

 

[KHAN]

12 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

And very aggressive too.

That's not a McDermott thing, that's a Buffalo Bills Analytics Department thing.

 

McDermott has nothing to do with that stuff.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

19 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

And very aggressive too.

That's not a McDermott thing, that's a Buffalo Bills Analytics Department thing.

 

McDermott has nothing to do with that stuff.

 

 

Dude…WTF

[Italian Bills]

9 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Not at all true - who do you think makes the call?  It’s not the analytics dept
 

He has the same 4th down data that other coaches do.  Some coaches simply refuse use the info for decisions.  Others consider it but default to arbitrary measures like “feel” or momentum.  I give him credit for embracing the philosophy.

On Sunday, I didn’t mind the call.  I probably would’ve kicked the FG but that only puts the team up for 2 scores and still leaves the door open for Minnesota to creep back.  A TD in that situation puts the game out of reach with a 3 score lead.  
 

Plus, even if the Bills fail on 4th, Minnesota has the ball on the 7 and still have to drive all the way downfield.  The problem was the execution - Josh throws and INT which gets returned to the 40 giving Minnesota a short field.  

Exactly; but who called the plays ? Dorsey ? If yes, why McD didn’t go against his OC’s strategy to throw every down, but RUN every down ??!!!

 

I never played football myself, but i know the game: you don’t have to be a genius to understand that in this situation you go to run every down, exactly because the worst scenario would has been Minnesota with the ball on their 7 yards with almost 90 seconds less on the clock. 
 

Unbelievable. 

[JohnNord]

23 minutes ago, PonyBoy said:

 

I was fine with the decision. I figured if the Bills made it and we're up by 13. The Vikings would probably score a TD and be down by 6 Then the BBFS would take over. Probably resulting in a hail Mary or final drive for the BILLS to lose by one. Not making it on 4th down Vikings likely score TD, but not go for another TD down by 3 and shoot for OT  Just my opinion after watching many years of the NFL and Buffalo.

 

 

That’s what I was thinking as well.  I remember reading that probability wise that 4th down was a coin flip.  Being so close to the endzone is probably what tipped the scales for going for the kill shot.  Like I said, I’m pretty sure they didn’t anticipate that INT and the return

16 minutes ago, Italian Bills said:

Exactly; but who called the plays ? Dorsey ? If yes, why McD didn’t go against his OC’s strategy to throw every down, but RUN every down ??!!!

 

I never played football myself, but i know the game: you don’t have to be a genius to understand that in this situation you go to run every down, exactly because the worst scenario would has been Minnesota with the ball on their 7 yards with almost 90 seconds less on the clock. 
 

Unbelievable. 

I definitely hated that sequence.  As far as why they pass so much it’s tough to tell.  There are a lot of RPO’s and Josh has the freedom to change calls at the line, so we don’t know exactly what the original play call was.  
 

Also the OL has been pretty terrible in run blocking this season.  I’m previous games, they were stonewalled pretty badly near the endzone.  Running the ball with this offense doesn’t really guarantee anything, though they seemed to run better on Sunday

[Scott7975]

52 minutes ago, PonyBoy said:

 

I was fine with the decision. I figured if the Bills made it and we're up by 13. The Vikings would probably score a TD and be down by 6 Then the BBFS would take over. Probably resulting in a hail Mary or final drive for the BILLS to lose by one. Not making it on 4th down Vikings likely score TD, but not go for another TD down by 3 and shoot for OT  Just my opinion after watching many years of the NFL and Buffalo.

 

 

Im fine with the decision either way but what people neglect is that by kicking a FG yes, we would still only be up by two scores but lets say the Vikings went and scored a TD... us going down and just scoring another field goal would again put us up two scores.  

 

Also in this particular case, it kind of goes to show that while the math of the analytics may be right... had we kicked the field goal we would have won in regulation so was it really right?

Edited November 17, 2022 by Scott7975

[Rigotz]

2018: McDermott will never be a winning coach because he's not aggressive enough

2019: McDermott will never be a winning coach because he doesn't pass enough

2020: McDermott is a good coach, but he can't win playoff games

2021: McDermott is a good coach, but his defensive scheme doesn't work 

2022: McDermott is a great coach, but he's wasting Super Bowl talent and will never win the big one

[HappyDays]

Can anyone here explain how this chart is calculated? What data is being used in the algorithm? Who created it and what are their qualifications?

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

The curious part of McDermott is the absolute defensive implosions we have witnessed late in games.

 

I haven’t questioned a whole lot about the offense and decisions made when we have the ball, in years.

What would you consider to be a defensive implosion though?  In losses against Miami and NYJ they held both teams to 21 and 20 points.  
 

Last week, they allowed 26 point to Minnesota.  The defense also had Minnesota right where they wanted them in 4th and long when one of the best players in the NFL made a fluke catch against a replacement level backup.  And the defense put the Bills on a position to win.  

42 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

2018: McDermott will never be a winning coach because he's not aggressive enough

2019: McDermott will never be a winning coach because he doesn't pass enough

2020: McDermott is a good coach, but he can't win playoff games

2021: McDermott is a good coach, but his defensive scheme doesn't work 

2022: McDermott is a great coach, but he's wasting Super Bowl talent and will never win the big one

Don’t forget:

 

2019: McDermott can’t beat Belichick

2020: McDermott can’t beat Belichick when it matters

2021: Belichick is in McDermott’s head

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Can anyone here explain how this chart is calculated? What data is being used in the algorithm? Who created it and what are their qualifications?

I believe it’s all probably based on similar situations in the past.  

58 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Im fine with the decision either way but what people neglect is that by kicking a FG yes, we would still only be up by two scores but lets say the Vikings went and scored a TD... us going down and just scoring another field goal would again put us up two scores.  

 

Also in this particular case, it kind of goes to show that while the math of the analytics may be right... had we kicked the field goal we would have won in regulation so was it really right?

That’s only if you assume everything unfolds the exact same way, which it likely wouldn’t.

 

Keep in mind, even with everything that happened all the Bills had to do was to snap the ball twice at the goal one and they win. 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I believe it’s all probably based on similar situations in the past.  

 

I would bet that exactly zero people who post these charts have any idea where the calculation comes from. Is it team specific? Does it account for the flow of the game? Personally I think it's all junk statistics that everyone has decided to believe without questioning.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would bet that exactly zero people who post these charts have any idea where the calculation comes from. Is it team specific? Does it account for the flow of the game? Personally I think it's all junk statistics that everyone has decided to believe without questioning.

EPA and its derivative WIN% are straightforward algorithms

 

https://www.opensourcefootball.com/

 

Junk statistics are subjective analytics like PFF grades, QBR, etc

[phypon]

I'm feeling the need to clap my hands together in a very hard and vigorous manner right now.  Whether it's warranted or not.  Everybody clap with me!  Let's all clap!  

[CoudyBills]

21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would bet that exactly zero people who post these charts have any idea where the calculation comes from. Is it team specific? Does it account for the flow of the game? Personally I think it's all junk statistics that everyone has decided to believe without questioning.

Pot meet kettle.

[Mr. WEO]

How is he on 1st down from his own 1 inch line?