The Chiefs....where is their next loss?

[BuffaloBaumer]

I think the hope of the 1 seed is long gone with the Bills schedule and the Chiefs schedule. These past 2 losses pretty much sealed their fate. The talk has shifted to winning the division and getting healthy towards the playoffs. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

At Chargers

Vs Rams

At Bengals

At Broncos

At Texans

Vs Seahawks 

Vs Broncos

At Raiders

 

We are gonna have to win out for the 1 seed more than likely and the Chiefs will have to lose at least once. Where would you see a loss in their next 8 games? Cincy? They seem to maybe be the Chiefs kryptonite. Seattle? Just curious on everyone's thoughts. Even one more loss for us and you can kiss the one seed goodbye for the year. The Chiefs could lose twice but I don't see it

Geno Smith & Dk Metcalf are part of a high powered offense that could give the Chiefs a lot of trouble. Woolen is an absolute stud on the other side (why couldn’t the Bills draft this guy ?????😩) 

 

Chargers suck ass, but maybe Herbert can channel some of his 2021 energy. Division road games are always hard. Ask the Bills. 
 

Bengals are hit or miss, but maybe Burrow & Chase can put on a show. Their defensive line is pretty good and pressuring Mahomes is key (like 99% of QBs.)

 

If they can lose 2 out of these 3 then the Bills might have a chance for the 1 seed. I don’t see Bills winning out sorry, but I hope I’m wrong.

 

[Blank Stare]

[Process]

Bills could win out if they get healthy on defense the next few weeks.

 

I see both teams ending 13-4. Bills one seed.

[Big Turk]

Here is a scenario that could very well play out over the next 3 weeks.

 

KC loses to either the Chargers/Bengals(preferably Chargers) and beats the Rams.

Bills win all games against the Browns, Lions and Pats.

Dolphins on a bye and then beat Houston but lose to the 49ers.

Ravens win all games against Car, Jax and Den.

Bengals win against Pit and Ten but lose to KC

Chargers win all 3 against KC, Ari and LV.

Patriots win against Jets, Vikings and lose to Bills.

Jets lose to Patriots and Eagles, win against Chi.

Titans win against GB but lose to Cin and Phi.

 

The auxiliary teams other than the Bills, Chiefs and Dolphins don't seem to matter much in terms of this, most of the other results save for those teams only sway things a few percentage points.

 

Basically at this point the Bills would have a 98% to make the playoffs, a 77% chance to win the division and a 42% chance of getting the 1st round bye(highest in the AFC) and a 19% chance to win the SB(highest in the NFL) according to 538 NFL game simulator.

 

Even if the Dolphins beat the 49ers, the Bills are still favored to win the division(61% to 35% for the Fins)

 

For some reason, won't let me post a screenshot but you can go play with it yourself and check it out.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Big Turk

[RoyBatty is alive]

Cinci and San Diego

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Arguable, and it was recently shown that Mahomes makes just as many bad decisions/plays as Josh, but gets a much longer leash and bigger leeway since he has been hyped since Day 1, and Josh started as an underdog project who everyone bet against.

 

When Josh makes an erratic play, he's Sugar Josh. When Mahomes does it, he's just a sly fox who made a mistake.

 

The narratives on these two are so different, but the performances are fairly close.

 

I want to agree completely.. I probably do partially.. and the narrative is likely much different if 13 seconds never happens (which was out of Josh's control), but you don't get any benefit of the doubt when the guy you're compared to has a SB, MVP, has won both Playoff head to heads and finishes higher than you year to year in the regular season standings.

 

Josh takes more blame than he should because our team is not coached up anywhere close to the level of the Chiefs. 

 

He never should have been put in a position where he could fumble on a sneak or throw a pick at the end.  Chiefs Defense/Coaches rarely put Mahomes in those positions. 

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

55 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

He's never played a road playoff game.  

 

Anybody acting like it's not a big deal if this team doesn't get the 1 seed (and especially if KC does) is just coping.  It would be a complete regular season failure. 

 

I get we have sustained a ton of injuries, but this team is built to get the 1 seed.  The beauty of what Beane has built is in both it's high end players AND depth.  Most teams have one or the other.  That depth is supposed to carry us in the regular season, and then Allen, Diggs, Von etc take over in the Playoffs. 

 

Pegula isn't spending league leading cash over cap to constantly trot out a 3 seed because this team can't figure out how to win games in the middle of the season. 

 

 

 

This is what the hopeful forget

 

1) McDermott's never coached this team to a win in a road playoff game. Ever. By extension, Josh hasn't won one on the road, either.

2) The Bills aren't taking the #1 seed. They'll be VERY fortunate to win the division. As of now, I think odds favor the Bills playing on the road on wildcard weekend, which would be an ABJECT failure for this roster IF it's all these same posters crack it up to be

 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

This is what the hopeful forget

 

1) McDermott's never coached this team to a win in a road playoff game. Ever. By extension, Josh hasn't won one on the road, either.

2) The Bills aren't taking the #1 seed. They'll be VERY fortunate to win the division. As of now, I think odds favor the Bills playing on the road on wildcard weekend, which would be an ABJECT failure for this roster IF it's all these same posters crack it up to be

 

 

According to 538 without factoring in any future results, the Bills are still the favorite to win the division and still have the 2nd highest odds to win the SB. Once again, placing way too much importance on what is happening in week 10.  Should have learned that lesson that it isn't too important overall from the last 3 SB winners.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Big Turk

[SCBills]

Just now, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

This is what the hopeful forget

 

1) McDermott's never coached this team to a win in a road playoff game. Ever. By extension, Josh hasn't won one on the road, either.

2) The Bills aren't taking the #1 seed. They'll be VERY fortunate to win the division. As of now, I think odds favor the Bills playing on the road on wildcard weekend, which would be an ABJECT failure for this roster IF it's all these same posters crack it up to be

 

 

I disagree on our likely trajectory for the rest of the season.  I'd bet more on us winning out than playing on the road WC Weekend.  

 

I do agree that McDermott/Frazier, and so far, Dorsey, have held this team back.  That's not to negate the fantastic job McD did building this team, but he's got them 90% up the mountain and it very much remains to be seen if he's the guy that can get them the next 10%.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

According to 538 without factoring in any future results, the Bills are still the favorite to win the division and still have the 2nd highest odds to win the SB.

Nate Silver isn't a guy I'd be betting my mortgage payments on

 

[Jauronimo]

47 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Teams insist on handing them games.  Raiders and Chargers both had them on the ropes earlier in the season.  KC always finds a way to win

Which is the only difference between us and them right now.  We've had the ball in our hands with a chance to win in all 3 losses.  Vintage Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Brees all find a way to win it at the end no matter how badly they have played all game, no matter how much they deserve to lose.  Allen is equally capable of icing games  and I'm sure he will return to form.  (soon please)

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Nate Silver isn't a guy I'd be betting my mortgage payments on

 

 

Neither are you Negative Nancy.

 

Just curious, has the sky started falling yet?

Edited November 16, 2022 by Big Turk

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Last season the #1 seed was thought to no longer be realistic after about week 12 or so.  But in the end believe it was 3 way tie for the #1 seed.  If the Bills had scored against Titans at end, we'd have been the #1 seed.

 

Point being, a lot can still change.

[SectionC3]

Bills in the playoffs.  Time to stop moping around and get our mojo back.  Enough worrying about everyone else.  Let’s control what is in front of us, beat Cleveland on Sunday, and move on to Detroit.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

14 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Neither are you Negative Nancy.

 

Just curious, has the sky started falling yet?

Not yet, but it will be if they lose against Cleveland this week.

 

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

And if Mahomes gets injured? Never can make assumptions that far ahead.

 

 

Ironically the year KC won the SB he got hurt they won the SB, but if that's what some fans are hanging their hopes on so be it.

 

Harsh reality for the Bills and the rest of the NFL, is that the Chiefs are going to be in the SB picture every year as long as Mahomes is healthy similar to the Patriots. And it's pretty scary that Mahomes is having his best season ever in a year that they were supposed to be in 'transition' with all the new faces on offense and defense.

[dorquemada]

49 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Chiefs will lose to the Bills in the AFC championship game. 

 

That implies something that doesnt look terribly likely right now

 

maybe Bills should focus on stringing together a single win before we put them in the AFCC.  The excuse generating algorithm is doing a lot of heavy lifting these last couple weeks around here

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

At Chargers

Vs Rams

At Bengals

At Broncos

At Texans

Vs Seahawks 

Vs Broncos

At Raiders

 

We are gonna have to win out for the 1 seed more than likely and the Chiefs will have to lose at least once. Where would you see a loss in their next 8 games? Cincy? They seem to maybe be the Chiefs kryptonite. Seattle? Just curious on everyone's thoughts. Even one more loss for us and you can kiss the one seed goodbye for the year. The Chiefs could lose twice but I don't see it

The chargers always play them tough.. but realistically a HEALTHY Bengals team could beat them.. the rest be just dumb luck if they won. 

[SCBills]

16 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Ironically the year KC won the SB he got hurt they won the SB, but if that's what some fans are hanging their hopes on so be it.

 

Harsh reality for the Bills and the rest of the NFL, is that the Chiefs are going to be in the SB picture every year as long as Mahomes is healthy similar to the Patriots. And it's pretty scary that Mahomes is having his best season ever in a year that they were supposed to be in 'transition' with all the new faces on offense and defense.

 

It is impressive, but they also "look" far less dynamic.  

 

Reid/Mahomes aren't going anywhere, but Kelce is the best TE I've ever seen year in/year out, and he never misses time.   He's 33.. at some point he will slow down.  The reason that team is so unstoppable, is because they have a TE on par with any dominant WR, plus he can also block at a high level.

 

Mahomes is elite.  Reid is elite.  But Kelce is that dude. 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by SCBills