Allen's final throw, bad decision or bad pass?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

47 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Bad decision. Singletary is wide open in the flat and although he has a couple of defenders about ten yards in front of him it’s still an easy pick up to keep matriculating down the field. Josh locked on way too early. Not good. 

But freeze frame it.

 

Singletary is not a receiver at the beginning of the snap, he releases late .

 

True, Josh could have held that ball longer (pocket was good), waited for Singletary to get a few steps further out, but Singletary did not run into the open field at the beginning of that play. 
 

The whole thing took too long, and again McKenzie has ZERO separation. 

36 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

It was a horrible decision.  They took the TD shot on first down. Second down should have been to get the first down.

After the decision to go to Davis it was a horrible throw. It was behind and short. The only way yo complete that pass is high arcing pass that Davis catches at the back boundary.  Its a throw Allen can make and has in the past.

 

Now if Davis ran the wrong route or incorrectly adjusted his route and he was supposed to check up at the 3 yard line in front of the defender, then maybe the throw was where it was supposed to go. In that case it is still a horrible decision to go to Davis as there were better options.

The other thing that is apparent to me is there is no spacing in the end zone.

 

You got 3 Bills standing 10-12 yards total apart from each other.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just ridiculously over aggressive onn first and second downs there. Allen is killing them with his legs on that drive and we have RB's open for easy gains. A tie would have been better than a loss. Seems a tie was at least part of the thought process. Take end zone shots on the first three downs and then on 4th and 10 kick the FG? 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Horrible play design.

 

Dorsey said yesterday something like if it’s not there check it down.

 

There was nobody to check down to.

 

McKenzie was completely covered from the snap, and Singletary releases late so Josh would have had to hold the ball a bit longer, and dump to him, that’s hard to do with how long it took Singletary to get moving forward.

 

Allen’s only option would have been throw out the back of the end zone. 
 

The Bills ended up with 3 players all standing 3 yards into the endzone about 12 yards from each other total. 

For the people posting screen shots, Allen would have had to have otherworldly anticipation to squeeze that ball to Davis for the 1 second he popped open. 
 

 

 

 

Two guys open right in front of him. 

 

Singletary blocked a guy and released, he was a fine safety valve and was wide open. He was open before Allen threw, and there was no pressure on Allen yet, he had  time to check down.

 

When you have three guys open, two of them wide open and your QB picks the hardest throw of the three and throws behind the WR, it ain't the design. It's the throw.

 

Someone up above said he forced it in, wanting Diggs or Davis. That sounds maybe right to me.

2 hours ago, phypon said:

I love Allen and I'm not down on him at all.  I think his arm is very tweaked with injury.  That was a horrible pass.  I think the injury is really affecting his passes as of late and he can't do what he normally can do.

 

 

The injury happened with about two plays left last week. He'd had the same problem for a game and a half before that.  Periodic bad decisions and throws though most were good.

 

I don't think the injury had much impact there. The throw before, to Knox, was right on target, though very well-defended.

 

 

[DapperCam]

Looking at that angle, nobody is really open. Singletary had just released from his block and seemed more like an emergency option if the play breaks down. Davis and Allen are obviously not on the same page of where the route is supposed to go. Even if Allen throws a perfect ball where Davis was going to be, it has to be high and very hard or over Peterson which would have been a very difficult throw even with a perfectly healthy elbow.
 

I blame the playcall first for being too aggressive. There was plenty of time to pick up some easier yards, but the play seems to be designed to go to the end zone. Then I blame Allen for forcing it when nothing was there. To be fair, he had just run like 50 yards and it was the end of an extra long game, and he was in a hurry. These guys aren’t robots, that sort of thing affects decision making.

[Shaw66]

Bad decision. all day long.   The point is this:   He had choices.   His job is to make the right decision.  

 

I've seen a few replays and read only a little bit of what people have been saying.   Maybe Davis was supposed to cut across instead of carrying the route into the end zone, although we've seen that throw into the end zone lots of times.  Maybe Allen intended to get the ball up in the air, over the defender, and he didn't make the throw.  Maybe this, maybe that.   Some people now say he had Morris, and others say he had Singletary.  His protection was good, and he had daylight opening up to his left and perhaps could have run.   

 

The primary point, the overwhelming point, is that the decision MUST be governed by the situation.   The situation is this:   It's second down, so it is not do or die.  Absolute, bottom line, the Bills MUST get a field goal.   That's number one.   Do not do anything that jeopardizes getting the field goal.  The videos and stills are clear about one thing - the Vikings dropped six or seven men to protect the end zone and inside the five.  The short zones were wide open.   Yes, there may have been a window here or there to get the TD, but given the situation, Allen cannot try to put the ball in the window he saw or thought he saw.   Singletary was on his way into the middle of the dump off zone, and Allen probably could have run for as many yards as Singletary would have gotten.   Bills probably get the first down, and they have more shots to score.   But regardless of that, Allen cannot risk something bad happening on that down.   He must throw it to a wide open receiver, somewhere, and he had choices to do that.  

[SectionC3]

4 hours ago, BananaB said:

Bad route. Cut in instead of up and that ball hits him in the chest

This.  Present your numbers to the QB and it’s a touchdown.  Allen double-clutched to let the LB move toward Singletary.  Safety was taken out of the picture by Morris.  It was the right read, the right throw, and the wrong route.  

2 hours ago, phypon said:

I love Allen and I'm not down on him at all.  I think his arm is very tweaked with injury.  That was a horrible pass.  I think the injury is really affecting his passes as of late and he can't do what he normally can do.

Watching it live from about 25 rows up on the goal line I can tell you that was an F‘Ing rocket that would have been a touchdown had Davis and Allen been on the same page.  

36 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Two guys open right in front of him. 

 

Singletary blocked a guy and released, he was a fine safety valve and was wide open. He was open before Allen threw, and there was no pressure on Allen yet, he had  time to check down.

 

When you have three guys open, two of them wide open and your QB picks the hardest throw of the three and throws behind the WR, it ain't the design. It's the throw.

 

Someone up above said he forced it in, wanting Diggs or Davis. That sounds maybe right to me.

 

 

The injury happened with about two plays left last week. He'd had the same problem for a game and a half before that.  Periodic bad decisions and throws though most were good.

 

I don't think the injury had much impact there. The throw before, to Knox, was right on target, though very well-defended.

 

 

The Knox ball was gorgeous.  So was the ball to Davis at the end of regulation that would have been a TD but for the very wise DPI penalty.  

[Shaw66]

27 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Looking at that angle, nobody is really open. Singletary had just released from his block and seemed more like an emergency option if the play breaks down. Davis and Allen are obviously not on the same page of where the route is supposed to go. Even if Allen throws a perfect ball where Davis was going to be, it has to be high and very hard or over Peterson which would have been a very difficult throw even with a perfectly healthy elbow.
 

I blame the playcall first for being too aggressive. There was plenty of time to pick up some easier yards, but the play seems to be designed to go to the end zone. Then I blame Allen for forcing it when nothing was there. To be fair, he had just run like 50 yards and it was the end of an extra long game, and he was in a hurry. These guys aren’t robots, that sort of thing affects decision making.

Nothing wrong with the play call.  It created opportunities to get the score if someone gets an advantage over the defense.   

 

Imagine talking to Allen on Thursday before the game.   Tell him the play call, and ask him what his thought process is supposed to be, and he would have said he should take his drop, verify the defense, run through his progression.  If no one is open and having seen the drops the defense took, he knows that Singletary will be in the short zone in the middle.   Allen knows all of that but in the moment, he blew it.  On Thursday afternoon, he would have told you that in that situation, second down, in field goal position, the obvious decision is give it Singletary and see what he can do.   Worst case, absolute worst case, the Bills would be five yards closer to the goal line, have another shot at the TD, and have a gimme field goal, if necessary to salvage the tie.  

 

Flat out horrible decision.  Brady became the GOAT by making that very decision dozens and dozens of times over 20 years.   Manning, too.  Favre is not the GOAT because he made the decision that Allen made.  

Edited November 15, 2022 by Shaw66

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Just ridiculously over aggressive onn first and second downs there. Allen is killing them with his legs on that drive and we have RB's open for easy gains. A tie would have been better than a loss. Seems a tie was at least part of the thought process. Take end zone shots on the first three downs and then on 4th and 10 kick the FG? 

 

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Two guys open right in front of him. 

 

Singletary blocked a guy and released, he was a fine safety valve and was wide open. He was open before Allen threw, and there was no pressure on Allen yet, he had  time to check down.

 

When you have three guys open, two of them wide open and your QB picks the hardest throw of the three and throws behind the WR, it ain't the design. It's the throw.

 

Someone up above said he forced it in, wanting Diggs or Davis. That sounds maybe right to me.

 

 

The injury happened with about two plays left last week. He'd had the same problem for a game and a half before that.  Periodic bad decisions and throws though most were good.

 

I don't think the injury had much impact there. The throw before, to Knox, was right on target, though very well-defended.

 

 

Two guys right in front of him…..

 

I just don’t know what video you’re watching.

 

I’ve acknowledged that he could have held the defenders with his eyes, waited for Singletary to get further out and dumped to him.

 

McKenzie was completely blanketed on the out route.

 

I don’t have All-22 of what is happening in the end zone, but the still shots show no room to get that ball in.

 

But to say Josh had options underneath, I just don’t see anything other than Singletary. 
 

 

[mrags]

Bad throw for sure. Watched it from the opposite angle in the stands. Saw Davis and the TD. Josh was a bit late and had a bad throw. It’s on Josh for sure, but was just a bad throw and off timed.
 

Actually shocked he didn’t try and throw it to the outside, looks like Diggs going to the back corner of the end zone. Higher percentage to not get picked off I’d imagine. But Josh has been pretty good with Gabe on those crossing routes over the middle. He was just behind and slow on the throw 

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, EastTNBillsfan said:

I agree. I don't think it was a bad decision. Watching it live, I thought at first that he and Davis were not on the same page. Now, I think the wind got a hold of it or the elbow caused the bad throw. 

He's not been on the same page with Gabe alot this year. I personally thought Gabe was never open to begin with and Josh should've thrown it away. 

[Jauronimo]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

Two guys right in front of him…..

 

I just don’t know what video you’re watching.

 

I’ve acknowledged that he could have held the defenders with his eyes, waited for Singletary to get further out and dumped to him.

 

McKenzie was completely blanketed on the out route.

 

I don’t have All-22 of what is happening in the end zone, but the still shots show no room to get that ball in.

 

But to say Josh had options underneath, I just don’t see anything other than Singletary. 
 

 

McKenzie needs to find the bench.  

[Motorin']

7 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Found this on Twitter today, it's the final throw of the game from Allen's perspective.  

 

The decision looked good, the pass looked late and off target. 

 

 

 

It was a bad pass, a bad route, and a worse decision to throw it to Gabe in the first place. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

T

10 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

It was a bad pass, a bad route, and a worse decision to throw it to Gabe in the first place. 

Still the play design is not good.

 

Look at how hard of a throw that is.

 

That window is microscopic trying to get that in there.

 

OC has to design some better ways to get guys open.

 

That end zone is crowded and there is no space. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

T

Still the play design is not good.

 

Look at how hard of a throw that is.

 

That window is microscopic trying to get that in there.

 

OC has to design some better ways to get guys open.

 

That end zone is crowded and there is no space. 

 

If no one is open, you don't throw it or throw it away.

 

It sounds like you're saying all play designs should have open WR.  

[JESSEFEFFER]

Started his throw, paused it and then pulled the trigger.  Throw was late and somewhat under powered (compared to what Josh needed to have on it.)  This allowed Peterson to undercut the route.  A similar hitch was in the motion on the goal line throw to McKenzie that ended up skipping to him.  If he needs to make a power throw, that hitch is a power sapper.  If he's making a touch throw, that hitch/reload is not such a big deal.

 

So, I say the decision was ok initially but the hitch in the motion (based on a LB flashing through the throwing window?) messed with the timing and made it a bad throw.  

[Motorin']

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

T

Still the play design is not good.

 

Look at how hard of a throw that is.

 

That window is microscopic trying to get that in there.

 

OC has to design some better ways to get guys open.

 

That end zone is crowded and there is no space. 

 

Absolutely. Bad pass, bad route, bad play design, terrible decision to throw it. 

 

He had 10 yards of green grass in front of him, and one defendor to jule to have a shot of running it into the end zone. 

[Rigotz]

Great post. I thought it was just a bad read, but yeah this tells a different story.

 

Didn't see anyone else mention this yet, but Singletary absolutely PASTED the DE on the play as well.

 

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Rigotz

[JoshAllin]

Looked like Davis made his cut at around the 10 yard mark and Allen tried to fit the ball in at the 1-2 yard mark while Davis goes for the back of the end zone. If Davis stays flat he gets the ball and pounds it in maybe he didn't want to get whacked by the defender

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Two guys open right in front of him. 

 

Singletary blocked a guy and released, he was a fine safety valve and was wide open. He was open before Allen threw, and there was no pressure on Allen yet, he had  time to check down.

 

When you have three guys open, two of them wide open and your QB picks the hardest throw of the three and throws behind the WR, it ain't the design. It's the throw.

 

 

 

 

Absolutely.  And in that situation he MUST take the safe throw.   Bad decision in the second quarter, okay, you have time to recover.  Your last possession of the game, no.  That play unfolded exactly as it was designed, and he knew he would have Singletary coming open. He knew it.   

 

Allen will not be great if he doesn't get his mental processing under control.

[thenorthremembers]

5 hours ago, BananaB said:

Bad route. Cut in instead of up and that ball hits him in the chest

I rewatched a few times and I agree with you.   The route was lazy.   Josh lets the ball go before Davis is into his cut, so while the end result is the throw going right to Peterson, if Davis cuts in front of the cornerback its 6.