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Week 11 Weather: Winter Storm Watch in place for this weekend, potential for major snowfall


Process

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Just now, Process said:

Didn't a game get moved to Detroit once due to significant snowfall that filled the stadium?

 

Yes. That is the game I am talking about. But if it stops Sunday, I could see it being moved to MNF. Along with the roads, they would also need time to clear the stadium as well as the parking lot.

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1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

Yes. That is the game I am talking about. But if it stops Sunday, I could see it being moved to MNF. Along with the roads, they would also need time to clear the stadium as well as the parking lot.

 

Can't...the Bills play Thursday afternoon in Detroit on Thanksgiving.

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12 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Agreed. All 4 global models are showing 4-5 feet + of snow this weekend. Will be interesting to see if the higher res guidance agrees the next few days. A watch issued this early is very rare and something to be taken seriously. Lake Erie is at a record high temp due to the warm weather last few weeks. 

Do you have a link to these models?

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All of this pretty much reads very badly. In the forecast discussion they are basically already comparing this exact scenario to November of 2000 and Snowvember and what happened then, and says in all caps that a lake response is all but GUARANTEED. Note at the end it says potential for significant lake snow to continue well after the initial watch expires.

 

image.thumb.png.68e4bcd3fd2cb26d9200cbf6f30a40b3.png

Edited by Big Turk
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7 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Do you have a link to these models?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022111412&fh=189&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

All of this pretty much reads very badly. In the forecast discussion they are basically already comparing this exact scenario to November of 2000 and Snowvember and what happened then, and says in all caps that a lake response is all but GUARANTEED. Note at the end it says potential for significant lake snow to continue well after the initial watch expires.

 

image.thumb.png.68e4bcd3fd2cb26d9200cbf6f30a40b3.png

Yep historic talk already starting. 

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So I'm flying in Saturday in the afternoon.  

 

Do you guys think that I should consider another weekend to fly in?

I'd fly in Thursday night at the latest if possible. 

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

We got 7 feet in Depew/Lancaster...I live under 10 minutes from the airport and they barely got a foot. 

I measured 88" of snow in Hamburg for Nov 2014. I'm a trained spotter here. 

Edited by Awwufelloff
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3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Great - a snowstorm is the only thing that could help the Browns beat the Bills. Move the game to Detroit.

Lions on the road this week. Move the game to Detroit and then Bills can just stay and practice there for the Thanksgiving game?

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  • Process changed the title to Week 11 Weather: Winter Storm Watch in place for this weekend, potential for major smowfall
4 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022111412&fh=189&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Yep historic talk already starting. 

I'd fly in Thursday night at the latest if possible. 

I measured 88" of snow in Hamburg for Nov 2014. I'm a trained spotter here. 

 

That is craziness!  We got lucky because the lake band was supposed to shift back north again and it never made it this far...never seen that much snow in my life and I grew up here...Was only 2 when the Blizzard of 77 hit but most of that was from snow that had already fallen and snow blown in off Lake Erie.

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2 minutes ago, Process said:

Lions on the road this week. Move the game to Detroit and then Bills can just stay and practice there for the Thanksgiving game?

Makes a ton of sense. Some time in Detroit could be what they need to get their heads straight anyway. Lose another game and you will all wind up playing here next year. 

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  • Process changed the title to Week 11 Weather: Winter Storm Watch in place for this weekend, potential for major snowfall
14 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So I'm flying in Saturday in the afternoon.  

 

Do you guys think that I should consider another weekend to fly in?

 

Don't do it.  It's not worth the risk. 

Edited by Big Turk
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Erie (South)
11/14/2022 7:00 PM    Winter Storm Watch
 Details
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in a long duration event of 1 to 2 feet or more are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...The potential remains for a significant long duration lake effect snow event Thursday night through much of the weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact band placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are possible, including across the Buffalo metro area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of very heavy snow are possible across portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. Stay tuned for later forecasts and statements as we progress through this week.

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Just now, Awwufelloff said:

thats 1:10 ratio too lol most lake effect is 1:20+. This event like most early season events tend to be lower on the ratio scale so I'm expecting 1:14-1:18

 

It's about to be ugly...looking at the actual forecast, precip chance is 90% and 3 days and nights of "Snow. The snow could be heavy at times" 

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