Week 11 Weather: Winter Storm Watch in place for this weekend, potential for major snowfall

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

At what point is it too much snow to play in? Is Ford Field available Monday?

We play Thursday. They’d have to move Thanksgiving game as well.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I would not be surprised to see higher amounts given the QPF amounts and the long duration fetch + delta Ts. 

 

Agreed...this is setting up eerily similar to Snovember. With a record warm lake. Bad news.

[LabattBlue]

55 minutes ago, McBean said:

Not a good team to play in the snow.

 

Browns have a great run game and line.

 No no no. It’s been said many times here that the reason they aren’t building a dome is because in bad weather games it is advantage Bills. 😂

[zow2]

Early models show 31+ inches of Lake effect through Sunday night.  That's a lot to deal with.  Over the past few years the NFL seems to be taking weather more serious,,,especially for fans, employees, police, etc.. trying to get out to games and stay safe.  This will be something to monitor for sure.  I'm sure the Bills are already in touch with the league about options.

[Seventeen]

15 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Early models show 31+ inches of Lake effect through Sunday night.  That's a lot to deal with.  Over the past few years the NFL seems to be taking weather more serious,,,especially for fans, employees, police, etc.. trying to get out to games and stay safe.  This will be something to monitor for sure.  I'm sure the Bills are already in touch with the league about options.

 

If that's the case, the NFL will move the game - how would they get rid of 30" in the stadium by game time plus make sure the roads are safe enough to get there ? 

 

Make the decision now so fans can travel if they want to.

[zow2]

 

[Big Turk]

The Winter Storm Watch has been updated and the initial 1 to 2 feet of snow expected has changed to "MULTIPLE feet of snow expected."

 

As I expected. The forecast discussion also now says there are stark similarities between what is about to happen and Snowvember in terms of how things are setting up.

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

Early models show 31+ inches of Lake effect through Sunday night.  That's a lot to deal with.  Over the past few years the NFL seems to be taking weather more serious,,,especially for fans, employees, police, etc.. trying to get out to games and stay safe.  This will be something to monitor for sure.  I'm sure the Bills are already in touch with the league about options.

 

I'm expecting more than that. IMO that is going to be the bare minimum. Also still expecting additional significant accumulations after the initial watch has ended...this could be one of those things where they issue another watch while the initial storm is ongoing for the secondary one to start.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Big Turk

[Greg S]

If these totals are true, then I would expect that either:

 

1. game gets moved to Detroit

2. cancelled and rescheduled at a later date.

 

The problem is the Bills already had their bye. I don't know if the Browns did. I guess the league could push the playoffs back a week so the Bills and Browns get the game in. Probably not a bad idea as the teams get another bye before the playoffs start. You know everyone is hurting at that point so teams might welcome the idea. Don't know if the league would want to do that.

[TheWei44]

Moving to Detroit seems like the most probable move if there is one at all.  Fairly neutral location (we don't get the benefit of a home game but arguably could benefit from not having a bad weather/ground&pound/fluky sort of a game in the elements).

Edited November 15, 2022 by TheWei44

[Since1981]

Yeah, open air weather is our advantage, sure . I have six people (ROC SYR $$$) I will have to figure out what to do…

Edited November 15, 2022 by Since1981

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, Since1981 said:

Yeah, open air weather is our advantage, sure . I have six people (RIC SYR $$$) I will have to figure out what to do…

A dome would make very little difference in a situation like this.  It is not the in-game experience that's the problem

 

A dome wouldn't help everyone driving to and from the game, or parking, or any number of things that make hosting a large event while dealing with this much snow impossible.

[Awwufelloff]

Buffalo national weather service now calling for feet of lake effect. I’ll be updating as model runs come in. Follow me on Twitter at

 

Here is discussion from buf NWS

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored.

 

This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time.

 

Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though. While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Awwufelloff

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Buffalo national weather service now calling for feet of lake effect. I’ll be updating as model runs come in. Follow me on Twitter at

 

Here is discussion from buf NWS

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored.

 

This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time.

 

Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though. While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.

 

This has a chance to be historic...it is VERY VERY rare for them to be talking like this 60+ hours before the storm even gets here. And as usual for these type of events, it gets worse the closer we get to it happening.

[Awwufelloff]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

This has a chance to be historic...it is VERY VERY rare for them to be talking like this 60+ hours before the storm even gets here. And as usual for these type of events, it gets worse the closer we get to it happening.

Very rare. I like Metro Buffalo up to airport as hardest hit area. Where are you located? I do not expect orchard park to be ground zero for this storm. They will get quite a bit of snow, but will likely be south of the heaviest stuff. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Awwufelloff

[Not at the table Karlos]

17 hours ago, Process said:

That was wild. In Amherst we got less than an inch of snow if I remember correctly. 

I lived in Amherst at the time. We had nothing. My friend was stuck at work in south buffalo and asked if I could pick him up. He said it's real bad and there's no taxis or busses. I thought he was over exaggerating boy was I wrong. I was fine until I got to elk and bailey. North side of elk was clear south side you couldn't see anything past the sidewalk. Cars would just appear at the intersection. It was crazy. Police wouldn't let me go any farther by car so I started to walk. Crossing the bridge on Bailey was like entering another world. Went from inches to feet really quick. 

[SoCal Deek]

70 degrees and sunny in Southern California on Sunday. I’ll start chalking the backyard. Field might be a little small but it’ll be green. 

[Since1981]

Lake Erie (Ontario) temps are waaaay higher than normal. Remember that nice October??  No good deed goes unpunished. 

[YoloinOhio]

Possible to move the game to Monday? I know they play Thursday but not sure what the contingency plans are. 

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

Possible to move the game to Monday? I know they play Thursday but not sure what the contingency plans are. 

 

I said that as well, but I forgot they play on Thanksgiving. No chance the Bills play Monday and then play again on Thursday. 

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, Greg S said:

 

I said that as well, but I forgot they play on Thanksgiving. No chance the Bills play Monday and then play again on Thursday. 

What is the other option? Move it to Detroit? They are the only Midwest dome team on the road.