Week 11 Weather: Winter Storm Watch in place for this weekend, potential for major snowfall

[Greg S]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:30 PM, Process said:

Didn't a game get moved to Detroit once due to significant snowfall that filled the stadium?

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Yes. That is the game I am talking about. But if it stops Sunday, I could see it being moved to MNF. Along with the roads, they would also need time to clear the stadium as well as the parking lot.

[Big Turk]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:18 PM, Process said:

That was wild. In Amherst we got less than an inch of snow if I remember correctly. 

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We got 7 feet in Depew/Lancaster...I live under 10 minutes from the airport and they barely got a foot. 

[Greg S]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:31 PM, bills742 said:

Might be difficult considering we play on Thanksgiving.

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Good point I forgot about that. 

[Big Turk]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:33 PM, Greg S said:

 

Yes. That is the game I am talking about. But if it stops Sunday, I could see it being moved to MNF. Along with the roads, they would also need time to clear the stadium as well as the parking lot.

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Can't...the Bills play Thursday afternoon in Detroit on Thanksgiving.

[CountDorkula]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:22 PM, Awwufelloff said:

Agreed. All 4 global models are showing 4-5 feet + of snow this weekend. Will be interesting to see if the higher res guidance agrees the next few days. A watch issued this early is very rare and something to be taken seriously. Lake Erie is at a record high temp due to the warm weather last few weeks. 

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Do you have a link to these models?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

oh boy

 

[Royale with Cheese]

So I'm flying in Saturday in the afternoon.  

 

Do you guys think that I should consider another weekend to fly in?

[Big Turk]

All of this pretty much reads very badly. In the forecast discussion they are basically already comparing this exact scenario to November of 2000 and Snowvember and what happened then, and says in all caps that a lake response is all but GUARANTEED. Note at the end it says potential for significant lake snow to continue well after the initial watch expires.

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Big Turk

[ngbills]

Great - a snowstorm is the only thing that could help the Browns beat the Bills. Move the game to Detroit.

[Awwufelloff]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:35 PM, CountDorkula said:

Do you have a link to these models?

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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022111412&fh=189&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:37 PM, Big Turk said:

All of this pretty much reads very badly. In the forecast discussion they are basically already comparing this exact scenario to November of 2000 and Snowvember and what happened then, and says in all caps that a lake response is all but GUARANTEED. Note at the end it says potential for significant lake snow to continue well after the initial watch expires.

 

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Yep historic talk already starting. 

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:37 PM, Royale with Cheese said:

So I'm flying in Saturday in the afternoon.  

 

Do you guys think that I should consider another weekend to fly in?

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I'd fly in Thursday night at the latest if possible. 

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:34 PM, Big Turk said:

 

We got 7 feet in Depew/Lancaster...I live under 10 minutes from the airport and they barely got a foot. 

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I measured 88" of snow in Hamburg for Nov 2014. I'm a trained spotter here. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Awwufelloff

[Process]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:41 PM, ngbills said:

Great - a snowstorm is the only thing that could help the Browns beat the Bills. Move the game to Detroit.

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Lions on the road this week. Move the game to Detroit and then Bills can just stay and practice there for the Thanksgiving game?

[Big Turk]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:41 PM, Awwufelloff said:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022111412&fh=189&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Yep historic talk already starting. 

I'd fly in Thursday night at the latest if possible. 

I measured 88" of snow in Hamburg for Nov 2014. I'm a trained spotter here. 

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That is craziness!  We got lucky because the lake band was supposed to shift back north again and it never made it this far...never seen that much snow in my life and I grew up here...Was only 2 when the Blizzard of 77 hit but most of that was from snow that had already fallen and snow blown in off Lake Erie.

[ngbills]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:45 PM, Process said:

Lions on the road this week. Move the game to Detroit and then Bills can just stay and practice there for the Thanksgiving game?

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Makes a ton of sense. Some time in Detroit could be what they need to get their heads straight anyway. Lose another game and you will all wind up playing here next year. 

[Royale with Cheese]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:41 PM, Awwufelloff said:

I'd fly in Thursday night at the latest if possible. 

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I can't because of work....*****.  I am looking forward to this game too.

[Big Turk]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:37 PM, Royale with Cheese said:

So I'm flying in Saturday in the afternoon.  

 

Do you guys think that I should consider another weekend to fly in?

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Don't do it.  It's not worth the risk. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Big Turk

[T&C]

Erie (South)
11/14/2022 7:00 PM    Winter Storm Watch
 Details
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations in a long duration event of 1 to 2 feet or more are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...The potential remains for a significant long duration lake effect snow event Thursday night through much of the weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in exact band placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are possible, including across the Buffalo metro area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of very heavy snow are possible across portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. Stay tuned for later forecasts and statements as we progress through this week.

[Big Turk]

Bullseye:

 

The 42.2 is inches of snow expected, FYI. 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Big Turk

[Awwufelloff]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:57 PM, Big Turk said:

Bullseye:

 

The 42.2 is inches of snow expected, FYI. 

 

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thats 1:10 ratio too lol most lake effect is 1:20+. This event like most early season events tend to be lower on the ratio scale so I'm expecting 1:14-1:18

[Big Turk]

  On 11/14/2022 at 9:02 PM, Awwufelloff said:

thats 1:10 ratio too lol most lake effect is 1:20+. This event like most early season events tend to be lower on the ratio scale so I'm expecting 1:14-1:18

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It's about to be ugly...looking at the actual forecast, precip chance is 90% and 3 days and nights of "Snow. The snow could be heavy at times" 

[Royale with Cheese]

  On 11/14/2022 at 8:52 PM, Big Turk said:

 

Don't do it.  It's not worth the risk. 

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Okay.  The only other time that I can go would be the Jets game December 18th.