The 4th & 2 playcalling

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

Allen missed a briefly open Davis.  He got the ball out late and it was behind him.  All on Allen.  

 

Mostly we had a lot of poorly designed routes that were well covered.   McKenzie actually brought more coverage onto Davis because of the route he ran.  

 

All this talk about what Davis could have done and should have done is garbage.   Once they blew up the screen the Vikes played it by betting we would be impatient and go for the TD and they covered it.  In the second half, once we reached the red zone they took away the end zone; it was not like they covered us on one play and got lucky - they knew what to do on multiple red zone plays because we do the same things.  They never had to think about the run, or check downs. 

 

 

 

Why did davis stop?  He closed any window you would get on mckenzie.  

[Bob in STL]

22 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Why did davis stop?  He closed any window you would get on mckenzie.  

 

I think he stopped because he ran the play and Josh missed him when he had the inside step on the CB  - but you need to ask Davis that question.   Maybe he should have kept running regardless?   To me Davis was not getting good separation on a lot of plays.  He is looking more like a #3, not a #2 in the past few weeks.  To my eyes, McKenzie is definitely not looking like a #3 and he makes a lot of mental errors.   Maybe our receiver talent was a bit overrated, and team know how to defend us?   

 

We can blame the wide receivers on all the plays that don't work but I don't think that is correct.  Josh missed a lot of throws.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

 

I think he stopped because he ran the play and Josh missed him when he had the inside step on the CB  - but you need to ask Davis that question.   Maybe he should have kept running regardless?   To me Davis was not getting good separation on a lot of plays.  He is looking more like a #3, not a #2 in the past few weeks.  To my eyes, McKenzie is definitely not looking like a #3 and he makes a lot of mental errors.   Maybe our receiver talent was a bit overrated, and team know how to defend us?   

 

We can blame the wide receivers on all the plays that don't work but I don't think that is correct.  Josh missed a lot of throws.  

 

The concept is sort of a double slant follow in man coverage- and it probably works for a TD to mckenzie if Davis finishes the route, but he stopped so mckenzie essentially ran right into a defender.  

[JohnNord]

On 11/14/2022 at 1:40 PM, Success said:

I hate to belabor this one - but it was genuinely concerning.

 

We can set aside the decision to go for it for now, which I disagreed with.  But it wasn't THAT crazy, given the talent on our offense.

 

The sequence there from 2nd down on was as unimaginative as anything I've seen.  It was almost like we'd call it in a pick-up game.  Everybody go out, and try to get open!  Am I missing anything there?  Was there anything set up on any of those 3 downs that was more than Allen dropping back and surveying the field?

 

Great teams always seem to have some play in their back pocket - a "gotta have" play, when you have short yardage & a chance to put the game away.  Do we not have that?

 

This thread has been debunked…. The issue isn’t the decision as much as it is the result.  McDermott is one of the best at 4th down decisions:

 

 

[fan_in_tx]

On 11/14/2022 at 3:53 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah you have to be able to run against that box if you are playing downhill.    This RPO style with the RB parallel with the QB and OL not being allowed to get upfield is not ideal for taking advantage of a light box.   Call a run or pass........get in the "I" and execute.........let the OL either block for the run or the pass.........not in-between.

Looking at this play how does Dawkins not put a hat on the LB right in front of him?  

[st pete gogolak]

This isn't directly on topic but it's the most recently active concerning the Minnesota game.  Last series.  Diggs catches ball giving us a first down on the Minnesota 20 yard line with 1:25 left and two timeouts (I believe Vikings had two timeouts as well).  Go for TD to Knox in endzone.  Incomplete.  1:12 left on the clock.  Let's say Allen threw ball away on second down with no one open (as many here believe he should have).  Now's it's third and 10 from the 20.  Incomplete pass followed by FG gives Vikings a minute and two timeouts to win the game.

 

If the strategy was to at a minimum to come out of the game with a tie, we should have run or thrown a "safe" pass on first down to run some clock.  Do Vikings call time out to preserve clock?  Do we make them burn a couple of timeouts?

 

It seems that the strategy, if you can call it that, was to win the game without any consideration for playing for a tie, fine.  That's certainly aggressive.  On the other hand, it just leads to more questions how strange the playcalling sequence was to end the game.

[Einstein]

On 11/14/2022 at 2:28 PM, Motorin' said:

 

Of course he's keyed in on Duke and would come downhill, but still, that could have been and easy conversion imo. 

 

On 11/14/2022 at 2:34 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

That is OPEN in the NFL.     Catch ball,  get a yard in open space against a single defender.    Tom Brady 101.    I didn't need to see the replay..........IRT it was obviously the way to convert that 1st down from my excellent vantage point on the Bills sideline side of field.  

 

Flashback: We were talking about Duke Johnson being "open" against the Vikings and Allen not throwing to him. I said that Duke may not get the first down because a defender was guarding the sticks and the defender would have likely either broken the pass up or stuffed him. You disagreed and thought it would be easy to make the defender miss.

 

Similar situation (though a couple yards longer) happened again, but this time Allen threw it to the RB... and the RB was promptly stopped short of the sticks because he couldnt make the defender miss.

 

 

 

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

 

Flashback: We were talking about Duke Johnson being "open" against the Vikings and Allen not throwing to him. I said that Duke may not get the first down because a defender was guarding the sticks and the defender would have likely either broken the pass up or stuffed him. You disagreed and thought it would be easy to make the defender miss.

 

Similar situation (though a couple yards longer) happened again, but this time Allen threw it to the RB... and the RB was promptly stopped short of the sticks because he couldnt make the defender miss.

 

 

 

 

The defendor was past the sticks on the previous play, and was moving laterally. Duke was at the line of scrimmage, not a few yards behind it. 

 

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

 

Flashback: We were talking about Duke Johnson being "open" against the Vikings and Allen not throwing to him. I said that Duke may not get the first down because a defender was guarding the sticks and the defender would have likely either broken the pass up or stuffed him. You disagreed and thought it would be easy to make the defender miss.

 

Similar situation (though a couple yards longer) happened again, but this time Allen threw it to the RB... and the RB was promptly stopped short of the sticks because he couldnt make the defender miss.

 

 

 

That really stuck with you, huh?

 

Here's a similar play from the same game.

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

On 11/14/2022 at 1:53 PM, Gugny said:

 

And a proper HC would have chosen to go up by 13 points instead of letting the OC have the chance to f*ck it up.

 

 

I agree with this. With the FG, Vikings would've needed two TDs or 3 possessions to tie or take the lead

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

 

Flashback: We were talking about Duke Johnson being "open" against the Vikings and Allen not throwing to him. I said that Duke may not get the first down because a defender was guarding the sticks and the defender would have likely either broken the pass up or stuffed him. You disagreed and thought it would be easy to make the defender miss.

 

Similar situation (though a couple yards longer) happened again, but this time Allen threw it to the RB... and the RB was promptly stopped short of the sticks because he couldnt make the defender miss.

 

 

 

 

 

Very different play in so many ways.   

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I agree with this. With the FG, Vikings would've needed two TDs or 3 possessions to tie or take the lead

 

Do recall reading at the time the odds of winning the game only went believe it was from 94% to 97% if they kicked the FG.  Where as if the had scored a TD would have gone to almost 100%.  The point in the article was that it wasn't really a bad choice to go for it as little would have changed.

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

That really stuck with you, huh?

 

Here's a similar play from the same game.

 

 

 

That was a screen pass. Not a swing pass. Not even remotely the same.

 

3 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

The defendor was past the sticks on the previous play, and was moving laterally. Duke was at the line of scrimmage, not a few yards behind it. 

 

 

He was 1 yard past the sticks and was not moving laterally. He was moving toward Duke Johnson and likely would have collided with him the exact moment the ball arrived. I mentioned that Cook was a couple yards different than Duke.

 

.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Einstein

[Billsatlastin2018]

On 11/14/2022 at 10:09 PM, Andy1 said:

Calm down. McKenzie wasn’t on the field for this play. He was just standing on the sideline at the goal line. Look at the video from the end zone perspective.

ok… that’s embarrassing!🙄

 

He wasn’t IN THE FIELD OF PLAY, because he ran out of bounds on his route! 

[since79]

On 11/14/2022 at 1:42 PM, Einstein said:

You didn’t like the idea of sending every single receiving option into the endzone when you only need two yards?

 

Yeah, me neither. Dorsey turned 4th and 2 into 4th and Goal.

 

 

Lately until this last game we have had red zone struggles, it seemed that when we reached the 20, we went for the end zone forgetting there was a first down option.  This past game it felt like we continued to drive when we reached the 20 and got better down an distance before we went for the score.  

 

Maybe Dorsey and Josh have too much killer instinct.  I hope they have been saving the imaginative plays for these final games and playoffs to not put them on film.  Now that we are in the drivers seat, expect Josh to run more, like this time last year. Its getting to the time to turn him loose.  That's what made us so hard to defend in the playoffs last year.

[Billsatlastin2018]

I think most of us can agree:

 

1) The OC pooched the entire series.

2) On the 3rd Down, the immediate Pass for a First Down to Singletary.

3) Going for it on 4th & 2 up 10, is the correct decision. 
(The subset of analytics & game situations is this: 
a) Who are your quality Offensive Stars at QB, WR, TE & RB;

b) Should you not make it, who is the opposition QB & their supporting cast.

If that isn’t Josh Allen or Pat Mahomes,you are certainly going!
Because a Captain Kirk isn’t someone you fear- when you normally leave the ball on the 7 yard line.

4) Some type of counter play or Josh roll out left is the correct call.
 

[Jauronimo]

49 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That was a screen pass. Not a swing pass. Not even remotely the same.

 

 

He was 1 yard past the sticks and was not moving laterally. He was moving toward Duke Johnson and likely would have collided with him the exact moment the ball arrived. I mentioned that Cook was a couple yards different than Duke.

 

.

Swing pass vs. bubble screen materially changes the situation that both passes were short of the sticks and require a pass catcher to make one man miss to get a first down? 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

Swing pass vs. bubble screen materially changes the situation that both passes were short of the sticks and require a pass catcher to make one man miss to get a first down? 

 

Yes.

 

Because a screen pass has blockers and completely changes the angles to which a runner makes a defender miss. A runner can use their blockers as, well, screens, to manipulate the defender.

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes.

 

Because a screen pass has blockers and completely changes the angles to which a runner makes a defender miss. A runner can use their blockers as, well, screens, to manipulate the defender.

The screen pass was 1 v 1. Hamlin was flying down untouched.  He blocked himself and gave up a TD.  Offenses will take WR/RB 1 on 1 against a DB in the open field every time.

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

The screen pass was 1 v 1. Hamlin was flying down untouched.  He blocked himself and gave up a TD.  Offenses will take WR/RB 1 on 1 against a DB in the open field every time.

 

No it wasn’t.

 

It was Jackson and Hamlin. Hamlin took an ugly angle and got blocked, Jackson was manipulated the block and resulted in bad leverage. Then the runner outran Poyer.