The 4th & 2 playcalling

[Nuncha]

3 hours ago, Success said:

I hate to belabor this one - but it was genuinely concerning.

 

We can set aside the decision to go for it for now, which I disagreed with.  But it wasn't THAT crazy, given the talent on our offense.

 

The sequence there from 2nd down on was as unimaginative as anything I've seen.  It was almost like we'd call it in a pick-up game.  Everybody go out, and try to get open!  Am I missing anything there?  Was there anything set up on any of those 3 downs that was more than Allen dropping back and surveying the field?

 

Great teams always seem to have some play in their back pocket - a "gotta have" play, when you have short yardage & a chance to put the game away.  Do we not have that?

 

Going for it was absolutely stupid there.  Take the points.  That decision was the difference in the ballgame.

[BillsFanSD]

1 minute ago, Azucho98 said:

Going for it was absolutely stupid there.  Take the points.  That decision was the difference in the ballgame.

Calling it "absolutely stupid" just isn't a good-faith argument.  It might be very slightly against the odds according to certain calculators, but it was completely reasonable to say "You know what, a 13 point lead would be nice but a 17 point lead is game over -- let's put them to the sword right here, right now."  

 

And there were like 27 different plays and decisions that all had to go a certain way for the game to end the way it did.  It's silly to obsess over the one that was a statistical toss-up at the time.  Come on.

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

He is NOT a precision route runner which is what is needed from your slot receiver.  

This.  McKenzie is a WR5 at best.  A gadget guy.  Why they thought he could be a slot WR3 baffles me.  I was ok with letting Beasley go because he was becoming ineffective.  I really wanted a WR drafted in the second round this year.

[BillsFanSD]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

He has Davis and McKenzie. He is staring right at them and still didn't throw the ball. I went and renewed my All 22 after the Jets game. It has been a lot of this. I honestly don't know WTF is going on with him, but our offensive execution just seems to be this play over and over and over again. 

 

I am frustrated upset. But also so confused. How can a player so good go back to such an early version of himself. There is something going on. Maybe he is all rattled from the GB hit? Maybe he is pressing too much with the pressure to be great? I have one itch that keeps bringing me back to the fact that he said he didn't do anything this offseason.  Josh is a guy who made so many improvements so quick, there is a scenario where those corrections are not yet permanent and without constant reinforcement there is risk of taking steps backwards. 

I know what you mean, but Allen was lights out for the first six games of the season.  That's not a weird aberration.  He's proven over multiple seasons that he can shred defenses.  He just needs to play within himself, and I don't think he's playing disciplined football right now.  

[JohnnyBuffalo]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

It was there regardless. Allen threw it late. He should be throwing it right now:

 

 

 

Wow that looks like if 6 keeps going across the field instead of up it or back he’s wide open.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

7 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

This.  McKenzie is a WR5 at best.  A gadget guy.  Why they thought he could be a slot WR3 baffles me.  I was ok with letting Beasley go because he was becoming ineffective.  I really wanted a WR drafted in the second round this year.

 

It's not as if we're married to the guy or signed him to some lucrative extension.  They signed crowder for a pretty reasonable deal, and drafted Shakir.  Crowder got hurt, so Mckenzie is getting more snaps.  

7 minutes ago, JohnnyBuffalo said:

Wow that looks like if 6 keeps going across the field instead of up it or back he’s wide open.  

 

Not really sure what the playcall is there.  I can't fault a guy for running his route if thats what he's tasked with doing. 

 

My issue is he motions in on the play to show man coverage then as he motions out the snap came before he was fully set so it threw off the timing on it.  I'm fairly certain he's supposed to be behind davis on another slant but they ended up on top of each other because of either the play design or impatience.  

[DCbillsfan]

9 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

It's not as if we're married to the guy or signed him to some lucrative extension.  They signed crowder for a pretty reasonable deal, and drafted Shakir.  Crowder got hurt, so Mckenzie is getting more snaps.  

 

Yeah it wasn't a lucrative extension but Crowder never really competed with McKenzie in training camp.  He got hurt early on and was behind the 8 ball.  McKenzie is a Smurf and has ball control issues and Allen doesn't trust him.

[Bob in STL]

Thanks for the replays.  Looks like the book on Allen is getting written these past few weeks.  

 

The 2nd and 2 broken play and toss into the ground is why we need to try to run at least a little more.  Why was 26 not in there?   Maybe Allen hangs in there and runs over to his left end.   If the defender stays on Knox, Allen has a run for the sideline, and he picks up the first down.  If the defender leaves Knox then he can get open.  I am surprised that Allen threw it away so quickly and never let anything else develop.  

 

The 3rd and 2 play required Josh to hit Davis in stride and immediately - instead he waited too long.  Knox was getting open in the right corner, would have been a safe play. Allen was locked onto the middle of the field.  

 

The 4th and 2 play was covered the whole way and never a threat.   The D never worried about a run.  Allen was flushed out of the pocket and was contained behind the line of scrimmage.  

 

The one-dimensional offense fails, even with an elite QB.    No runs.   No RPO's.  No play was even designed to get the ball to Diggs, our most reliable weapon. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Thanks for the replays.  Looks like the book on Allen is getting written these past few weeks.  

 

The 2nd and 2 broken play and toss into the ground is why we need to try to run at least a little more.  Why was 26 not in there?   Maybe Allen hangs in there and runs over to his left end.   If the defender stays on Knox, Allen has a run for the sideline, and he picks up the first down.  If the defender leaves Knox then he can get open.  I am surprised that Allen threw it away so quickly and never let anything else develop.  

 

The 3rd and 2 play required Josh to hit Davis in stride and immediately - instead he waited too long.  Knox was getting open in the right corner, would have been a safe play. Allen was locked onto the middle of the field.  

 

The 4th and 2 play was covered the whole way and never a threat.   The D never worried about a run.  Allen was flushed out of the pocket and was contained behind the line of scrimmage.  

 

The one-dimensional offense fails, even with an elite QB.    No runs.   No RPO's.  No play was even designed to get the ball to Diggs, our most reliable weapon. 

 

We didn't even have running backs in the backfield on some of them.  No jet motion, no eye candy, no play action, no sprint outs... its uninspiring to say the least.  

 

Not to mention, there was about 5 yards of space between the 1st and end zone and we didn't seem to try and get it at all.  

Edited November 14, 2022 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[BananaB]

25 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

Going for it was absolutely stupid there.  Take the points.  That decision was the difference in the ballgame.

I thought it was terrible as well. McD always goes on about how he trusts his players but he didn’t trust the D with a 13 point lead with 11 minutes left.  

[Nuncha]

55 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

Calling it "absolutely stupid" just isn't a good-faith argument.  It might be very slightly against the odds according to certain calculators, but it was completely reasonable to say "You know what, a 13 point lead would be nice but a 17 point lead is game over -- let's put them to the sword right here, right now."  

 

And there were like 27 different plays and decisions that all had to go a certain way for the game to end the way it did.  It's silly to obsess over the one that was a statistical toss-up at the time.  Come on.

Take the points.  They made it easier for the Vikings to come back and ultimately win the game.

 

You are wrong....A 13 point lead there would have resulted in a W.  That last FG drive by Josh ends the game in regulation, we win 33-30.  Hell even if they MADE the missed PAT we still would have won 33-31.

2 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Azucho98

[BillsFanSD]

2 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

Take the points.  They made it easier for the Vikings to come back and ultimately win the game.

 

You are wrong....A 13 point lead there would have resulted in a W.  That last FG drive by Josh ends the game in regulation, we win 33-30.  Hell even if they MADE the missed PAT we still would have won 33-31.

 

This is why they call it "Monday morning quarterbacking."  You have the luxury of knowing how the rest of the game played out, so you can make the "correct" decision in hindsight.  It would be easy to draw up equally likely scenarios where the FG costs us the game and we really needed those additional four points, and then you'd be in here busting on McDermott for being too conservative and not going for it.  

[No_Matter_What]

4 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

I agree. Have to look at the All-22 - can't see how close the defender is in that broadcast view. Regardless though - the design of the play was not the issue - there was a play to be had there.

I am also waiting for All-22 but I would slightly expand your points in this thread regardless. I think fans in general (i) love to blame "playcalling" whenever execution sucks and (ii) are extremely results oriented.

 

As @Rock-A-Bye Beasley already posted, going for it vs FG was extremely close decision from analytics point of view, yet people will claim that it was beyond stupid. It was probably slightly wrong based on math and even more so based on what was happening of the field, but nothing significant either way.

 

As for the calls in general - if we run and it fails, people say we should've pass. If we pass, we should've run. If we try sneak and it fails, it should've been shotgun. If we line up in shotgun, it should've been under center and sneak, or run. When we try 3 passes in the RZ in row, people are saying how stupid it was to pass. If we run Singletary on that 2nd down, the very same people (not everybody ofc, nobody needs to take this personal) would be screaming how that was just a wasted down and why didn't we let Josh throw it 3 times. If we do some jet sweep to McKenzie and it works - what a brilliant call. If it fails due to some great individual defensive effort - why is OC getting cute. And so on. Honorable mention to @GunnerBill, who is the only one I noticed, who once a while says that he didn't like a call even if it worked (and vice versa).

 

When Josh hit Gabe Davis from his own EZ on 3&10 with 45y bomb on 98y TD vs Steelers I don't remember anybody on this board complaining why did they try such a dangerous low-percentage play on 3&10 on our own 2 yards. Because it worked. When something doesn't, "playcalling sucks". And same with any coaching decisions.

 

I am not saying coaches are perfect and playcalling is always great. I am just saying that people are way too results oriented and inconsistent in this. Not to mention that most fans (including me, but that's why I don't offer strong opinions on calls) really have no clue what calls/assignments actually were.

Edited November 14, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[CEN-CAL17]

Let me ask this…. How many misdirection plays have you seen this year?

 

Minnesota did the same misdirection play where Cousins (play action, another thing bills don’t do) rolled out slightly to his right and threw back left…..

 

Any trick plays this year? Tennessee won from a trick play yesterday.

 

I just feel like the Bills think they are above being creative. Get creative, get innovative….. you gotta change it up every now and then.

[TampaBillsJunkie]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

It's really hard to argue with McD's decisions to go for it on 4th down. Almost always the correct ones. We can not like the result or the playcall, but the decision itself is hard to argue with.

 

 

Well they can't say we are scared or conservative, however I really thought taking 3 would have been the right move. Go up 13 and make them drive the long field twice. I counter punch or another FG and it's over.  This game was beyond frustrating and the probability we lose had to be less than 5% when it was 27-10. Yet we found a way to f'k it up again. 

 

[No_Matter_What]

4 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

 

This is what pisses me off. McKenzie is in on the play and just watches Peterson return it. He made absolutely zero attempt to try and tackle him. Inexcusable.

Oh and this was brutal. I can see McKenzie in doghouse next game. This was hard to watch and it surely won't get unnoticed.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

As I said........the angle isn't messing with my eyes.........I saw it right at the snap in real life and not again since.   

 

Sigh.

[frostbitmic]

43 minutes ago, BananaB said:

I thought it was terrible as well. McD always goes on about how he trusts his players but he didn’t trust the D with a 13 point lead with 11 minutes left.  

Would you trust the defense at that point ?

 

Rousseau, White, Elam, Poyer and Hyde all out ... Edmunds didn't play the second half, that's 6 of 11 starters out of the game. They had given up a 70+ yard TD run in the third Q and we had no one who could slow down Jefferson.

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

To be honest, the Vikings actually showed a lot of light boxes in the 2nd half. They were daring Dorsey to call a run... and he did on a play with a light box and this was the result...

 

 

I mentioned this a few times in the game day thread. Calling more run plays does not automatically equal run success. We simply are not a good run blocking team. Calling 10 more run plays is likely to produce 8 more plays of what you posted.

 

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Wtaf is Saffold doing?

 

Saffold loses leverage immediately but i’m far more concerned about Morse & Bates double teaming a d-linemen and STILL losing the rep. That’s horrendous.

 

.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Einstein

[Simon]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Saffold loses leverage immediately but i’m far more concerned about Morse & Bates double teaming a d-linemen and STILL losing the rep. That’s horrendous.

 

.

 

Morse and Bates sealed the exact gap they were supposed to; Morse was even heading to the second level until he saw the 'backer heading for the wrong gap.

Saffold's brainfart at the snap forced the back out of the designed zero hole that was going to be an easy first down and probably a TD.