The 4th & 2 playcalling

[Wayne Cubed]

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

 

[SydneyBillsFan]

20 minutes ago, Process said:

Well McKenzie sucks. But we knew that a year ago. And Beane did nothing in the off-season to address it. 

 

He did go out and get Crowder but injury killed that move.

[iccrewman112]

34 minutes ago, Success said:

I hate to belabor this one - but it was genuinely concerning.

 

We can set aside the decision to go for it for now, which I disagreed with.  But it wasn't THAT crazy, given the talent on our offense.

 

The sequence there from 2nd down on was as unimaginative as anything I've seen.  It was almost like we'd call it in a pick-up game.  Everybody go out, and try to get open!  Am I missing anything there?  Was there anything set up on any of those 3 downs that was more than Allen dropping back and surveying the field?

 

Great teams always seem to have some play in their back pocket - a "gotta have" play, when you have short yardage & a chance to put the game away.  Do we not have that?

 

not sure why McKenzie can’t run a run route in and short yardage situation and not get a first down. It was down with Beasley for two years. Concept is the same regardless of the receiver.

[CEN-CAL17]

4th & 2…..? Get that PS player Duke in the game!!!!!  Defenses won’t know what to do!!!! (Either will Buffalo)

[Process]

1 minute ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

 

He did go out and get Crowder but injury killed that move.

Yay, another average at best weapon for the face of our franchise

[Ned Flanders]

8 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

 

Good gawd, this is very telling.

[Motorin']

38 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Duke had a defender in front of him.

 

Probably a 50/50 chance if he makes the defender miss. Actually more like 70/30, I think he gets it.

 

The defendor was well beyond the sticks. Of course he's keyed in on Duke and would come downhill, but still, that could have been and easy conversion imo. 

[st pete gogolak]

16 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

 

Why are Davis and McKenzie right next to each other?  That can't be right.  Somebody had to mess up.

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That was Duke Johnson and he had a defender on him and closing fast. It would have probably been a bang-bang play at the first down marker, or Duke would have had to make him miss.

 

He may have even been hit so hard that he doesn’t catch the ball.

 

 

 

That is OPEN in the NFL.     Catch ball,  get a yard in open space against a single defender.    Tom Brady 101.    I didn't need to see the replay..........IRT it was obviously the way to convert that 1st down from my excellent vantage point on the Bills sideline side of field.    When it's that short of a conversion you have to be willing to look short to long.    Josh has developed a Rob Johnson-esque addiction of looking long first even when it's unnecessary.

Edited November 14, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[Wayne Cubed]

5 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

Why are Davis and McKenzie right next to each other?  That can't be right.  Somebody had to mess up.

 

Yea McK is a liability, I'm sure he's run wrong route or something. He's actually probably the reason Josh hesitates.

 

EDIT: It's a bunch formation to start, so Davis/McK/Knox are all lined up closely. I think Josh is looking for Knox first but then he definitely comes back to where Davis/McK are and he hesitates than actually throws the ball in the dirt.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Wayne Cubed

[msw2112]

11 minutes ago, Ned Flanders said:

Good gawd, this is very telling.

 Hadn't seen this, but wow!  Not only is Davis wide open, but it's a completely clean pocket.  That should be an easy throw for any NFL QB, let alone one of Allen's caliber.  Allen may have been making other reads, but that picket was so clean that he had plenty of time to go to Davis.

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

The defendor was well beyond the sticks. Of course he's keyed in on Duke and would come downhill, but still, that could have been and easy conversion imo. 

 

Look at the yard markers. First down is at the 5. Duke is at the 9. Defender is at the 2.

 

The defender was closer to the first down marker than Duke was. The angle of the camera is throwing you off. It would have been very close.

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

There is no 4th down if Josh hits a wide open Davis on 3rd down... and I do mean wide open, instead he hesitates.

 

 

Screenshot scouting doesn't work. He expected Davis to keep running.

 

 

[Wayne Cubed]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Screenshot scouting doesn't work. He expected Davis to keep running.

 

 

 

RIght, he shows Josh he's open... Josh still throws the ball in the dirt and Davis does sit in those pockets, so it's not unlike something Davis would do. Even if Davis kept runnign the throw from Allen as no where near him. It was low and in the dirt.

 

EDIT: And the throw is in fact behind Davis, so him still running makes no sense.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Wayne Cubed

[Roundybout]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Screenshot scouting doesn't work. He expected Davis to keep running.

 

 

 

What's up with our receivers not having good game sense? Davis does this, McKenzie turns his brain off half the time. 

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That is OPEN in the NFL.     Catch ball,  get a yard in open space against a single defender.    Tom Brady 101.    I didn't need to see the replay..........IRT it was obviously the way to convert that 1st down from my excellent vantage point on the Bills sideline side of field.    When it's that short of a conversion you have to be willing to look short to long.    Josh has developed a Rob Johnson-esque addiction of looking long first even when it's unnecessary.

The angle is messing with your eyes. Look at the yard markers. Duke was 4 yards from the 1st down marker. Defender was 3 yards. Defender was closer to the first down marker than Duke was. It would have been very very close. 

[Neo]

4 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Disagree.   It's the choice between a 2 score or 3 score game and you only need 2 yards to sustain that drive.  It was the right decision - you have a freakishly mobile battering ram of a QB who is considered a top 5 player in the league - it was just a mix of bad playcalling and terrible execution.

Analytics agrees with you.  Analytics takes score and the likely result of both decisions into consideration given time remaining.  “Go for it” adds more than kick even with the high probability of a made FG.  Analytics here said”hi for it” offered more points, even with success probabilities considered, than kick at that stage of the game.  You take a 70% chance at 7 pts over a 99% chance at 3 pts until time remaining says you don’t.  It would have been asinine to go for it with 3 seconds left and down by 2 pts.

 

The problems were play selection and execution.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Neo

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Screenshot scouting doesn't work. He expected Davis to keep running.

 

 

 

Expected him to keep running? Huh? He threw it behind him.

[Wayne Cubed]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

Expected him to keep running? Huh? He threw it behind him.

And threw it low. Gabe Davis will sit in those pockets of space. He's done it before.

[Awwufelloff]

Why didn't we take the 3 pts? What is going on with these coaching decisions....?