THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Damn This Curse!

[Shaw66]

I now realize I’m cursed.  I must forever swallow these bitter pills, and I can’t digest them until I talk it out. 

 

Damn.

 

I had a bad feeling about the Jets game all week.  It seemed clear that Robert Saleh had finally built a defense that people expected when he arrived in New Jersey.  I figured the Jets wouldn’t be able to score much, and the question would be whether the Jets defense was good enough to stop the Bills from scoring. The Bills didn’t look great against the Packers last week, and I was worried.

 

I took my son and grandson to see the game.  Josh Allen threw another opening drive interception, and the bad feeling I had never went away.  The Jets were, in fact, good enough to stop the Bills from scoring. 

 

The following brain dump of more or less unrelated points is necessary just so I can get on with the rest of my life, at least until the Vikings game:

 

1   The season doesn’t start until November.  Everyone knows that.  This season, I let myself get tricked into thinking the Bills’ early-season success meant something.  It didn’t.  At least, it didn’t mean much.  The Bills whipped the Super Bowl champs and then manhandled the Titans.   Turns out, the Rams were one-year wonders and the Titans were still playing preseason football.  They beat the Chiefs, but the two teams seem to have gone in opposite directions since then.

 

2.  Quarterbacks don’t become great until they face and overcome adversity.  Well, Josh, adversity is knockin’ on your door.  You’re looking mortal.  I heard you have a bad elbow; I don’t know if that’s true, but if it is, you and the Bills need to work through it.  My son suggested that a careful look at replays of your two interceptions suggest that maybe, just maybe, those weren’t total boneheaded throws.  Apparently in your post-game press conference you said those throws were on you, which you’re supposed to say and good for you, but my son thinks that your receivers weren’t on the same page with you.  Knox apparently turned upfield, thinking you would turn the corner and run and he should take his man with him, and you thought he’d continue coming back to you.  Davis may have turned the wrong way on the interception in the third quarter; a different cut and Gardiner would have been behind Davis and fighting to break up a completion.  No matter; you can’t let that happen.  Those two throws easily were the difference in the game.

 

3.  Speaking of Davis, by now everyone should realize that he isn’t the second coming of Megatron.  He’s a nice receiver to have on the team, but he is not the second half of some all-world receiving duo.  Diggs, by the way, is the first half.  The man can flat-out play.

 

4.  Is there any question that defenses have caught up to offenses?  Nothing comes easy.  It’s happening all over the league.  Defenses are stopping the deep and intermediate passing game, and running and stopping the run has returned as a key to success.  The Bills’ running attack hasn’t been good enough to respond to this change, and their run defense hasn’t been good enough to respond to the good running teams (like the Jets). 

 

5.  I continue to be unimpressed by Jaquan Johnson.  Against the Jets, he took the wrong angles trying to close down runs to the outside and coughed up big yardage.  It’s pretty clear that the Bills need the first tackler on the scene, if not to make the tackle, at least to slow down the momentum of the ball carrier so that the pursuers have time to shut down the play.  Johnson failed to do that, and it hurt.

 

6.  Hamlin is better than Johnson, and that’s why he got the start once Hyde went down.  But the combination of Hamlin and Johnson just looks too small to me.  Their size says “corner” to me.  Hyde and Poyer are bigger guys – make them a little bigger and they’d be linebackers.  We may see Marlowe next week. 

 

7.  Von Miller certainly has the knack for making big plays.

 

8.  I’m getting this uncomfortable feeling that the Bills have too many-all purpose guys and not enough who are really good at one thing.  It sure is nice that Bass can kick it high, kick it low, kick it long, kick it short – all-purpose, but how about a guy who never kicks off out of bounds and actually makes field goals? 

 

9.  I knew Milano wasn’t playing, but I didn’t think about who his replacement would be.  I don’t think I actually saw Bernard until the third quarter, and that is not a good thing.   Milano never goes a half without making himself noticeable.  

 

10.  I went into the season liking the Bills depth, and the depth has been helpful, so long as the lineup isn’t full of second-team players.  Once the rest of the starting offensive line returned, Quessenberry has done fine.  But when both your safeties, your number one corner, and your starting matchup outside linebacker are out, a second-string defensive backfield just can’t make enough stops. 

 

11.  I immediately liked the look of Hines.  Really solid catching punts, nice speed.  Great lay-out up the left sideline on the ball that Josh overthrew just a bit.  And I continue not to like the look of Cook.  He has speed, but he doesn’t show any quickness or shiftiness.  I first thought it was Cook who laid out, and I was really excited to see some intensity.  I think we’ll more of Hines next week, and probably less of Cook.

 

12.  I continue to doubt that McKenzie is the answer in the slot.  He looks great on jet sweeps, as he always has, but it’s an adventure every time Josh throws him the ball, especially on what should be bread-and-butter slants.  Beasley caught ‘em, Diggs catches ‘em; McKenzie, well, it’s an adventure.  Shakir must have plateaued in practice; otherwise, we would be seeing more of him out there. 

 

13.  So many people were talking about how the Bills were through the tough part of the schedule.  Forget that.  Jets, Dolphins, and Pats twice looks pretty tough.  Vikings and Browns.  The NFL is never easy, and there are no free passes to the Super Bowl. 

 

14.  We may be looking at the characteristic mid-season slump that we’ve seen form McDermott before.  McDermott wants to have his best team in December, and now is the time that he earns his money.  It’s time for the Bills to start showing they can handle whatever teams throw at them.  They need four wins in the division.

 

15.  Still, as I said earlier in the season, the object is to go at least 3-1 every quarter of the season, and here the Bills are 6-2 with wins over the Chiefs and Titans.  They’re in a good position, but they need to be better than they were against the Jets.

 

16.  Oh, and the throw to Diggs on first down on the last possession was magnificent, as was the catch.  Penalty really hurt.  And the throw to Davis later?  I haven’t seen a replay, but I believe that throw went from the goal line to the Jets 20 and was more or less on target!  It was truly incredible.

 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Shaw66

[LABILLBACKER]

I think it's time to adjust a few philosophies.

 

1.  Come out of the nickel when the opponents gameplan is clearly run it down your throat.

2. Start using top 3 picks on OL. Establish a better run game once and for all. 

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I think it's time to adjust a few philosophies.

 

1.  Come out of the nickel when the opponents gameplan is clearly run it down your throat.

2. Start using top 3 picks on OL. Establish a better run game once and for all. 

Good points, both.   Maybe they would have done 1 if Milano had been healthy - play Bernard instead of Johnson on first down, and challenge the Jets to throw it more.  

 

And although I don't focus on it, whenever I see someone make point 2, I can't argue.  What the heck?  The oline is 1/4 of your starting lineup, almost, so as a starting point, 1/4 of the guys drafted in the top 3 rounds should be olinemen.  Okay, maybe you're going to go heavier at some other positions, so call it 1/6.  Four drafts, that's 12 guys in the top three rounds.   1/6 would be two offensive linemen in four drafts.  If many serves, the Bills have taken zero.  You're correct. 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

16.  Oh, and the throw to Diggs on first down on the last possession was magnificent, as was the catch.  Penalty really hurt.  And the throw to Davis later?  I haven’t seen a replay, but I believe that throw went from the goal line to the Jets 20 and was more or less on target!  It was truly incredible.

 

Josh let it go at the BUF 10, and it hit Gabe in the chest on the Jest 20.  That's 70 yards in the air for those of you at home.  When your QB comes up with that throw, you have to make the play, no matter how much the DB is interfering with you.  JA is still the man, he just needs to have surgery for his current injury, rectocephaly.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Freddie's Dead

[Shaw66]

21 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Josh let it go at the BUF 10, and it hit Gabe in the chest on the Jest 20.  That's 70 yards in the air for those of you at home.  When your QB comes up with that throw, you have to make the play, no matter how much the DB is interfering with you.  JA is still the man, he just needs to have surgery for his current injury, rectocephaly.

Thanks.  I was sitting on the field at the opposite 40, so it was hard to see where he threw from.   So, 70, not 80, but we agree about who Josh is.  Absolutely, got to make that throw.  

 

And, I agree.  I expect he will be fine.  Still growing.  

[The Firebaugh Kid]

That ball hit Davis in the chest. Incredible throw, and despite being mauled he could have made the play. 

[whorlnut]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Good points, both.   Maybe they would have done 1 if Milano had been healthy - play Bernard instead of Johnson on first down, and challenge the Jets to throw it more.  

 

And although I don't focus on it, whenever I see someone make point 2, I can't argue.  What the heck?  The oline is 1/4 of your starting lineup, almost, so as a starting point, 1/4 of the guys drafted in the top 3 rounds should be olinemen.  Okay, maybe you're going to go heavier at some other positions, so call it 1/6.  Four drafts, that's 12 guys in the top three rounds.   1/6 would be two offensive linemen in four drafts.  If many serves, the Bills have taken zero.  You're correct. 

Agree. Beane needs to get McD out of his head and draft some stud linemen to protect Allen and open up running lanes. Enough with the one year deals and late picks. This qb deserves better. 
 

The high picks (mainly first and second rounders) on d are getting old. I’ve said this in other threads, but I fully expect Beane to take a safety this year in the first round if we lose poyer. 

Edited November 7, 2022 by whorlnut

[LABILLBACKER]

51 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Josh let it go at the BUF 10, and it hit Gabe in the chest on the Jest 20.  That's 70 yards in the air for those of you at home.  When your QB comes up with that throw, you have to make the play, no matter how much the DB is interfering with you.  JA is still the man, he just needs to have surgery for his current injury, rectocephaly.

I rewatched that throw again and take back everything I said yesterday about it being underthrown.  I was a remarkable throw with an injury arm.

[Freddie's Dead]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I rewatched that throw again and take back everything I said yesterday about it being underthrown.  I was a remarkable throw with an injury arm.

 

I thought it was underthrown as well.  One more yard...  But then you see that JA launched a rocket that just missed orbital velocity.  I felt bad tor thinking it was underthrown.

[Shaw66]

44 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I rewatched that throw again and take back everything I said yesterday about it being underthrown.  I was a remarkable throw with an injury arm.

Do you have a link to it?   Not complaining, but I thought it was underthrown.  A yard deeper and Davis wouldn't have had the same fight for the ball.   I'd like to see it again, if you guys don't think it was underthrown.   I think he underthrew Diggs earlier in the game. 

 

But in both cases, the fact it was underthrown is a mere technical conclusion.   The actual length the ball was thrown to be able to hit the receiver more or less in stride is a a big-time throw.   As someone said, if you are able to make that throw, physically able, you take it more or less every time.  

[msw2112]

Did anyone else think that there was pass interference on the last long throw to Davis?  It wasn't blatant, but there was contact.  Gardner had his hand on Davis' back before the ball got there and also appeared to have a hand on Davis' chest.  10 years ago, I wouldn't have thought that, but in today's NFL, that's usually flagged as PI.  Would it have been called if Tom Brady was throwing that pass (not that he could throw that pass, but theoretically)?

 

This Buffalo Rumbligs article concludes that it was played and called correctly:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/11/7/23444027/bills-jets-penalty-recap-gabe-davis-sauce-gardner-dion-dawkins

[Livinginthepast]

45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Do you have a link to it?   Not complaining, but I thought it was underthrown.  A yard deeper and Davis wouldn't have had the same fight for the ball.   I'd like to see it again, if you guys don't think it was underthrown.   I think he underthrew Diggs earlier in the game. 

 

But in both cases, the fact it was underthrown is a mere technical conclusion.   The actual length the ball was thrown to be able to hit the receiver more or less in stride is a a big-time throw.   As someone said, if you are able to make that throw, physically able, you take it more or less every time.  

Davis either needs to make the catch or slow down and let the Db run into him to make it obvious PI . Unfortunately he does neither. A savvy veteran player needs to do one or the other. Diggs was underthrown on that deep pass but Josh hits Davis almost perfectly on that last play right after getting his elbow wrenched.  Considering how bad a game Josh had, that throw was remarkable.  Both this play and the Dawkins "hold" are broken down nicely on the link below. The web site seems think it was a legit hold but I disagree Its looks like Dawkins pushes over the Jets player and lands on top of him. In addition that's the tv angle, I'm not sure how in real time the official who calls that penalty actually saw it at all or how he would think that looked like a hold. Personally, I think the official should have kept his flag in his pocket.

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/11/7/23444027/bills-jets-penalty-recap-gabe-davis-sauce-gardner-dion-dawkins

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

16 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

Did anyone else think that there was pass interference on the last long throw to Davis?  It wasn't blatant, but there was contact.  Gardner had his hand on Davis' back before the ball got there and also appeared to have a hand on Davis' chest.  10 years ago, I wouldn't have thought that, but in today's NFL, that's usually flagged as PI.  Would it have been called if Tom Brady was throwing that pass (not that he could throw that pass, but theoretically)?

 

This Buffalo Rumbligs article concludes that it was played and called correctly:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/11/7/23444027/bills-jets-penalty-recap-gabe-davis-sauce-gardner-dion-dawkins

 

There was enough mutual contact that I'm ok with a no-call. 

 

Ironically, Josh would've been better off underthrowing it by 1-2 yards. If Davis had to fight through the defender (who never turned his head) the refs would've been forced to call PI 

[Shaw66]

Thanks for the link, on both plays. 

 

Not that it matters, but I still think it was underthrown.   I think Davis slowed a bit in his last several strides, to let the ball fall into perfect catching position.  Frankly, if his right arm hadn't gotten tangle up and he had two hands, he might have caught it anyway.  But if the ball were farther downfield, Gardiner would have been a full stride behind Davis - Gardiner closed in the last few yards.   Then Davis would have been free to catch the ball without Gardiner making any kind of play. 

 

However, I say none of this as a criticism of the throw.   From 60 yards, one yard off of absolute full stride is still a bulls-eye.   

 

Fact is, the play points up the difference between Diggs and most other guys.   Diggs is the man you wanted catching that ball, not Davis.  Josh put the ball where he needed it for his receiver to make a play, and Stefon is one of those guys who makes a lot of those plays.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I think it's time to adjust a few philosophies.

 

1.  Come out of the nickel when the opponents gameplan is clearly run it down your throat.

2. Start using top 3 picks on OL. Establish a better run game once and for all. 

 

I'd feel a lot better about 1 if we had a 3rd linebacker who i thought was better at tackling than taron johnson.  

11 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

There was enough mutual contact that I'm ok with a no-call. 

 

Ironically, Josh would've been better off underthrowing it by 1-2 yards. If Davis had to fight through the defender (who never turned his head) the refs would've been forced to call PI 

 

Davis could have come back a bit and high pointed it.  I don't think he expected gardner to close as quickly.  

[US Egg]

Had an uber, rah rah, Bills are SB bound fanatic, forecast an ominous tone regarding this game. It surprised me.

 

Never judge a cashier by their cover.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I now realize I’m cursed.  I must forever swallow these bitter pills, and I can’t digest them until I talk it out. 

 

Damn.

 

I had a bad feeling about the Jets game all week.  It seemed clear that Robert Saleh had finally built a defense that people expected when he arrived in New Jersey.  I figured the Jets wouldn’t be able to score much, and the question would be whether the Jets defense was good enough to stop the Bills from scoring. The Bills didn’t look great against the Packers last week, and I was worried.

 

I took my son and grandson to see the game.  Josh Allen threw another opening drive interception, and the bad feeling I had never went away.  The Jets were, in fact, good enough to stop the Bills from scoring. 

 

The following brain dump of more or less unrelated points is necessary just so I can get on with the rest of my life, at least until the Vikings game:

 

1   The season doesn’t start until November.  Everyone knows that.  This season, I let myself get tricked into thinking the Bills’ early-season success meant something.  It didn’t.  At least, it didn’t mean much.  The Bills whipped the Super Bowl champs and then manhandled the Titans.   Turns out, the Rams were one-year wonders and the Titans were still playing preseason football.  They beat the Chiefs, but the two teams seem to have gone in opposite directions since then.

 

2.  Quarterbacks don’t become great until they face and overcome adversity.  Well, Josh, adversity is knockin’ on your door.  You’re looking mortal.  I heard you have a bad elbow; I don’t know if that’s true, but if it is, you and the Bills need to work through it.  My son suggested that a careful look at replays of your two interceptions suggest that maybe, just maybe, those weren’t total boneheaded throws.  Apparently in your post-game press conference you said those throws were on you, which you’re supposed to say and good for you, but my son thinks that your receivers weren’t on the same page with you.  Knox apparently turned upfield, thinking you would turn the corner and run and he should take his man with him, and you thought he’d continue coming back to you.  Davis may have turned the wrong way on the interception in the third quarter; a different cut and Gardiner would have been behind Davis and fighting to break up a completion.  No matter; you can’t let that happen.  Those two throws easily were the difference in the game.

 

3.  Speaking of Davis, by now everyone should realize that he isn’t the second coming of Megatron.  He’s a nice receiver to have on the team, but he is not the second half of some all-world receiving duo.  Diggs, by the way, is the first half.  The man can flat-out play.

 

4.  Is there any question that defenses have caught up to offenses?  Nothing comes easy.  It’s happening all over the league.  Defenses are stopping the deep and intermediate passing game, and running and stopping the run has returned as a key to success.  The Bills’ running attack hasn’t been good enough to respond to this change, and their run defense hasn’t been good enough to respond to the good running teams (like the Jets). 

 

5.  I continue to be unimpressed by Jaquan Johnson.  Against the Jets, he took the wrong angles trying to close down runs to the outside and coughed up big yardage.  It’s pretty clear that the Bills need the first tackler on the scene, if not to make the tackle, at least to slow down the momentum of the ball carrier so that the pursuers have time to shut down the play.  Johnson failed to do that, and it hurt.

 

6.  Hamlin is better than Johnson, and that’s why he got the start once Hyde went down.  But the combination of Hamlin and Johnson just looks too small to me.  Their size says “corner” to me.  Hyde and Poyer are bigger guys – make them a little bigger and they’d be linebackers.  We may see Marlowe next week. 

 

7.  Von Miller certainly has the knack for making big plays.

 

8.  I’m getting this uncomfortable feeling that the Bills have too many-all purpose guys and not enough who are really good at one thing.  It sure is nice that Bass can kick it high, kick it low, kick it long, kick it short – all-purpose, but how about a guy who never kicks off out of bounds and actually makes field goals? 

 

9.  I knew Milano wasn’t playing, but I didn’t think about who his replacement would be.  I don’t think I actually saw Bernard until the third quarter, and that is not a good thing.   Milano never goes a half without making himself noticeable.  

 

10.  I went into the season liking the Bills depth, and the depth has been helpful, so long as the lineup isn’t full of second-team players.  Once the rest of the starting offensive line returned, Quessenberry has done fine.  But when both your safeties, your number one corner, and your starting matchup outside linebacker are out, a second-string defensive backfield just can’t make enough stops. 

 

11.  I immediately liked the look of Hines.  Really solid catching punts, nice speed.  Great lay-out up the left sideline on the ball that Josh overthrew just a bit.  And I continue not to like the look of Cook.  He has speed, but he doesn’t show any quickness or shiftiness.  I first thought it was Cook who laid out, and I was really excited to see some intensity.  I think we’ll more of Hines next week, and probably less of Cook.

 

12.  I continue to doubt that McKenzie is the answer in the slot.  He looks great on jet sweeps, as he always has, but it’s an adventure every time Josh throws him the ball, especially on what should be bread-and-butter slants.  Beasley caught ‘em, Diggs catches ‘em; McKenzie, well, it’s an adventure.  Shakir must have plateaued in practice; otherwise, we would be seeing more of him out there. 

 

13.  So many people were talking about how the Bills were through the tough part of the schedule.  Forget that.  Jets, Dolphins, and Pats twice looks pretty tough.  Vikings and Browns.  The NFL is never easy, and there are no free passes to the Super Bowl. 

 

14.  We may be looking at the characteristic mid-season slump that we’ve seen form McDermott before.  McDermott wants to have his best team in December, and now is the time that he earns his money.  It’s time for the Bills to start showing they can handle whatever teams throw at them.  They need four wins in the division.

 

15.  Still, as I said earlier in the season, the object is to go at least 3-1 every quarter of the season, and here the Bills are 6-2 with wins over the Chiefs and Titans.  They’re in a good position, but they need to be better than they were against the Jets.

 

16.  Oh, and the throw to Diggs on first down on the last possession was magnificent, as was the catch.  Penalty really hurt.  And the throw to Davis later?  I haven’t seen a replay, but I believe that throw went from the goal line to the Jets 20 and was more or less on target!  It was truly incredible.

 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

I've been whatever on mckenzie for a bit now, but he was just flat out invisible in this one.  He didn't really do anything wrong, he may have even been open.  Just felt like Allens been staring down receivers for the last 6 quarters, and the ball is not coming out quick to anyone.  

 

Even the passes to mckenzie weren't on target, and he spiked some others to kumerow, singletary, diggs etc.  

[Michael1962]

Thanks for the post once again.  Maybe I have recency bias but KC barely won against the Titans in their house last night.  Without the zebras help I doubt that they would have won.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Michael1962 said:

Thanks for the post once again.  Maybe I have recency bias but KC barely won against the Titans in their house last night.  Without the zebras help I doubt that they would have won.

Right.  There's a different thread going about whether the sky is falling.   I've posted there.   Where I come out is that the sky isn't falling, it's impossible for the good teams to be good for the entire season and the playoffs.  Every team is still in the process of trying to figure out how to win consistently.  That's where KC is, that's where the Bills are.   Which teams will go on runs over the next two months?   I don't know, but KC and Buffalo are among the better bets.  

[CSBill]

The throw to Davis hit him between the 1 and the 3. It was an appropriate ending to the day.