are receivers open question - with crappy film snaps

[Beck Water]

This is probably gonna be broken into several posts due to posting size limitations. 

 

I'm trying to address/answer the question are receivers open ie is it Dorsey especially on interceptions.

 

Now I'll be the first to say I don't always understand the rules on what's considered an open guy or not, so hopefully some of our guys who know more like @HoofHearted and @Buffalo716 will chime in.  I'm also limited by the crappy NFL+ interface, it isn't always possible to capture the exact still I want.  Y'all can get your own free trial and check me.

 

GB at Buf, 2rd and 9 with 12:51 left in the 4th. 

Josh rolled out to the L and dirted a ball to an open Devin Singletary, hotly pursued by 2 GB defenders and no time to set.

Just before Josh rolled out to his L, Knox appears wide open down the R sideline, making me wonder if Josh could have broken back and R for a throwing lane and hit him for a nice gain.  Diggs may also have a little "window" to go get the ball? (Josh just needs a bit more time in the pocket I think).  Singletary sees his QB in trouble and scrambles for the L sideline, but Josh must feel pursuit too close to throw on the move.  Motor has the defender boxed out but Josh dirts it.

 

3rd and 10.

 

 

[Beck Water]

This is the 1st interception in the 4Q. 

GB at Buf, 3rd and 10 with 12:46 left in the 4Q.

 

Josh breaks the pocket and moves to the R.  At this moment, Knox appears open with a passing lane on the 36 and a shot to convert the 1st down if he tucks it and runs hard.  But  look at Shakir all alone on the R sideline at the 46 for the 1st and more!! and there appears to be a clear passing lane.

 

That isn't what Josh wants though.  He's waiting for Davis to come across the middle.  Rasul Douglas reads Allen's eyes and jumps the route.

 

It appears to me that

1) possibly we were in 3rd and 10 because Josh didn't pull the trigger for a short gain Knox might have improved on, and because he wasn't able to hit Singletary for a reasonable gain scrambling left (Josh was being pursued though)

2) Josh had a short and a medium option open on 3rd and 10 (Knox over the middle with the chance to convert, Shakir at the R sideline).  Instead he waited for Davis to come across the middle, allowing Douglas to read his intentions (or possible have scouted his tendencies on film) and jump the route.

 

This ain't on Dorsey failing to scheme guys open.  Josh needs a bit more time in the pocket, and when it's not there, he needs to take what the D gives him (IMO)

 

[Beck Water]

OK, so Settle and Milano get it right back.

1st down run to Singletary is stuffed.

2nd and 14, looks as though Josh has Cook (on the R) and Shakir (possibly falling down  on his cut, though he recovers)  on the L) for short gains with room to run.  Not sure Cook is where he's supposed to be.  Josh wants more, waits, Cook gets covered up but no one open downfield.  Josh scrambles to his L.  Shakir still open, Cook does scramble rules, comes open behind the secondary, Josh passes up Shakir and hits a big gain.  So there's one where waiting and going for the gusto works.  But the point is, Shakir appears wide open earlier in the play; Josh did not have to rely on scramble rules to open something up for him.

 

 

[Beck Water]

OK, 4 yd run by Cook puts us down on the GB3.  I'm not gonna try to assess that, leave it for someone who knows more about run blocking.

 

2nd and 3.  This is one where I think the "where is the creativity?" Q could be asked. 

 

It's a 21 set with Bobby Hart (as the 2nd TE) and Knox on the L and Cook kept in to protect, meaning Davis and Diggs are the only receiving options.  Play action.  I *think* this is supposed to be, give Josh time and one of Diggs or Davis will work open 1 on 1.  Dawson Knox may be supposed to chip and release, but there's a GB defender waiting for him in the EZ and he's beaten on his block right away, giving a GB defender a clear bead on Josh.  Diggs and Davis both still well covered when Josh throws - he whips it in there hard to Diggs and I can't make out if it's deflected or Diggs can't handle it. 

 

I don't know if this shoulda been a run, or if Josh's best bet woulda been to try to get a few yards himself.  There don't seem to be other options on this one. 

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

Now we get to the 2nd interception

3rd and 3 from the GB 3.  Bills are leading 27-10. 

Josh has One Job: Don't Turn the Ball Over, come away with at least 3 points, put the game away to where 3 TDs are needed.

 

11 set with McKenzie out wide, Diggs and Knox on the R; Davis on the L, Cook in the backfield.

Now here's where I may mistake "who is open?" but it seems to me that Josh has 2 options here: McKenzie near the R pylon or possibly Cook short of the goalline on the R.  Diggs and Knox are covered like blankets, and Davis is also well covered.  But, there's no one who could jump an accurate throw to McKenzie or to Cook.  Cook has a passing lane, for McKenzie there might be a guy who could deflect it if Quessenberry doesn't handle him (but Josh could step R and in fact does).   As soon as Josh rolls right, McKenzie does that 'put 'er here, partner' crouch but the DB still has no play on the ball unless he flattens him before the ball gets there.

 

Josh waits until McKenzie is covered, Davis runs back into traffic, and then dirts the ball, allowing Jaire Alexander a play on it.  It's really inexplicable, Josh could fling it in the direction of McKenzie or through the back of the EZ.  McKenzie appears to have his guy "boxed out" like a basketball guard and might make a play on a ball thrown in front of him, but Allen is looking at Davis all the way.  Now Davis is getting legit mugged it appears, but WTF Josh. 

 

Anyway, I would have to say even if there was a play that didn't work (2nd down), overall in the series Dorsey's play design and the overall execution appears to have left Josh with options, to my eyes.  Josh didn't take them.

 

 

 

[pocoboy]

General theme is probably solid - Josh's mindset is reverting back to his early days of gunslinging.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

This is the 1st interception in the 4Q. 

GB at Buf, 3rd and 10 with 12:46 left in the 4Q.

 

Josh breaks the pocket and moves to the R.  At this moment, Knox appears open with a passing lane on the 36 and a shot to convert the 1st down if he tucks it and runs hard.  But  look at Shakir all alone on the R sideline at the 46 for the 1st and more!! and there appears to be a clear passing lane.

 

That isn't what Josh wants though.  He's waiting for Davis to come across the middle.  Rasul Douglas reads Allen's eyes and jumps the route.

 

It appears to me that

1) possibly we were in 3rd and 10 because Josh didn't pull the trigger for a short gain Knox might have improved on, and because he wasn't able to hit Singletary for a reasonable gain scrambling left (Josh was being pursued though)

2) Josh had a short and a medium option open on 3rd and 10 (Knox over the middle with the chance to convert, Shakir at the R sideline).  Instead he waited for Davis to come across the middle, allowing Douglas to read his intentions (or possible have scouted his tendencies on film) and jump the route.

 

This ain't on Dorsey failing to scheme guys open.  Josh needs a bit more time in the pocket, and when it's not there, he needs to take what the D gives him (IMO)

 

 

Why didn't Allen just run it?  He had literally 10 yards in front of him easily.

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Why didn't Allen just run it?  He had literally 10 yards in front of him easily.

 

Yeah, he could have.  I think he could have run on the goal line play as well - he had to evade one defender if he took off to the R.

16 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

General theme is probably solid - Josh's mindset is reverting back to his early days of gunslinging.

 

My intended theme was the question "is it Dorsey's schemes?  Is no one open?"

That was true on one of the plays I looked at (a heavy set with TE and RB in to block) but on the others, there appeared to be a solid play design with open options.

[Mango]

I went through the GB all 22 this AM and had the same general sentiments

Same sentiments. 
1. Pre-NFL plus the A22 was a much better product. You could select specific drives. Set it to only play offensive/defensive snaps. Rewind, fast forward, slow-mo, etc. 
2. Josh is locking on to one receiver pre-snap. He just didn't go through his progressions. It wasn't just a 2nd half issue. A few chunk plays sorted of washed out a bunch of bad plays. 

3. He is really jumpy in the pocket. He is starring down one guy, if he isn't open he is bailing quick. Part of it seems like he is dropping too deep and instead of just stepping up and letting his tackles push the rush past him, he is bolting left or right (mostly left) and trying to buy time for the same receiver pre-snap. 

Like you, I don't actually know the proper progressions. Almost none of us do (no matter what some posters say). But there are guys open quite a bit that he just isn't seeing right now. Feels like as the season has gotten rolling and the team started its ascension, he just started pushing and gripping too hard. 

[Big Turk]

Here is one on the INT to Gardner...Shakir is sitting WIDE OPEN with nobody anywhere near him as a short outlet option...would have been at least 15-20 yards, there was literally nobody near him.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Big Turk

[Beck Water]

26 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Here is one on the INT to Gardner...Shakir is sitting WIDE OPEN with nobody anywhere near him as a short outlet option...would have been at least 15-20 yards, there was literally nobody near him.

 

 

 

Yeah, Shakir is so open he has time to dial up Jimmy Johns, accept delivery, and take two bites before he catches it.  I'm not sure it gets us 15-20 yds, but it's 2nd and 17; getting 10 yds and making 3rd down more manageable would help.  I'm not sure Josh has a passing lane to him by the time he finishes his route though?

 

The pick itself, unless we see a tip on the all-22, seems pretty clearly a miscommunication.  Either Davis didn't run the route Josh expected or one of them read the coverage differently.  Film:

 

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Beck Water

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yeah, Shakir is so open he has time to dial up Jimmy Johns, accept delivery, and take two bites before he catches it.  I'm not sure it gets us 15-20 yds, but it's 2nd and 17; getting 10 yds and making 3rd down more manageable would help.  I'm not sure Josh has a passing lane to him by the time he finishes his route though?

 

The pick itself, unless we see a tip on the all-22, seems pretty clearly a miscommunication.  Either Davis didn't run the route Josh expected or one of them read the coverage differently.  Film:

 

 

 

On the one where they show the actually play, Allen clearly has an open throw to Shakir

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

On the one where they show the actually play, Allen clearly has an open throw to Shakir

 

I'm unclear on that.  Shakir is clearly open, Allen clearly doesn't have a pocket to step into, and there appear to be a couple defenders on the line between Allen and Shakir.  It's possible Allen could sidestep or roll R though. 

 

It also appears Allen could take a checkdown to Cook, who has shown speed and elusiveness in the open field.

 

The bottom line is, it does not appear that Josh has no schemed alternatives but to throw to a well-covered Davis.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Beck Water

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm unclear on that.  Shakir is clearly open, Allen clearly doesn't have a pocket to step into, and there appear to be a couple defenders on the line between Allen and Shakir.  It's possible Allen could sidestep or roll R though. 

 

It also appears Allen could take a checkdown to Cook, who has shown speed and elusiveness in the open field.

 

The bottom line is, it does not appear that Josh has no schemed alternatives but to throw to a well-covered Davis.

 

 

 

And I am willing to bet he knew that because you saw him angrily fling his helmet into the netting coming off the field very animatedly and yelling at himself.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Big Turk

[HoofHearted]

39 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yeah, Shakir is so open he has time to dial up Jimmy Johns, accept delivery, and take two bites before he catches it.  I'm not sure it gets us 15-20 yds, but it's 2nd and 17; getting 10 yds and making 3rd down more manageable would help.  I'm not sure Josh has a passing lane to him by the time he finishes his route though?

 

The pick itself, unless we see a tip on the all-22, seems pretty clearly a miscommunication.  Either Davis didn't run the route Josh expected or one of them read the coverage differently.  Film:

 

 

I think they confused him. Jets showed a double A gap pressure with Cover 1 pre-snap alignment and post-snap rolled Cover 2 and dropped the backers. Allens eyes looked Gabe the whole way. Think he thought he was gonna have a 1-on-1. The unfortunate part is they had a Smash concept to that side which is a Cover 2 beater. If Sauce carries he throws the out to Cook. What REALLY sucks is he had Dawson 1-on-1 with a backer in the middle of the field...

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I think they confused him. Jets showed a double A gap pressure with Cover 1 pre-snap alignment and post-snap rolled Cover 2 and dropped the backers. Allens eyes looked Gabe the whole way. Think he thought he was gonna have a 1-on-1. The unfortunate part is they had a Smash concept to that side which is a Cover 2 beater. If Sauce carries he throws the out to Cook. What REALLY sucks is he had Dawson 1-on-1 with a backer in the middle of the field...

 

Thanks!

 

So on that play, def. confirms that Allen had multiple open options that were better choices.

 

See anything to refute the notion that Allen had open options on some of the other plays discussed in this thread?

 

The genesis of this is a thought/claim in other threads laying responsibility at Dorsey for poor scheming which is not getting receivers open.  My take is that there are usually (on all but 1-2 plays I've looked at) receivers who appear open to me but Josh is passing them up in favor of deeper shots.  Secondary conclusion is that claims the #3 or slot receiver and Knox are "ineffective" would be evaluated "not proven", since they often appear to be open but not getting any Loooooooooovvvvvve.

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Thanks!

 

So on that play, def. confirms that Allen had multiple open options that were better choices.

 

See anything to refute the notion that Allen had open options on some of the other plays discussed in this thread?

 

The genesis of this is a thought/claim in other threads laying responsibility at Dorsey for poor scheming which is not getting receivers open.  My take is that there are usually (on all but 1-2 plays I've looked at) receivers who appear open to me but Josh is passing them up in favor of deeper shots.  Secondary conclusion is that claims the #3 or slot receiver and Knox are "ineffective" would be evaluated "not proven", since they often appear to be open but not getting any Loooooooooovvvvvve.

Guys are definitely open - Allen is pushing the ball downfield. I think that Steelers game was the worst thing that could have happened to him. He pushed the ball multiple times when he had better options underneath, but the Steelers were so bad we hit on them anyway. That success makes him think he can do it every time.

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan]

Purely speculating, but I think he just gets stubborn bc he’s just so used to having his way with defenses.  He needs to go back to the cerebral QB play he was exhibiting in the first quarter of the season, take what’s the defense is giving you.  17 definitely in a little slump, reminds me of the stinker vs the Falcons last year except they were so bad, Buffalo squeaked out the W anyway.  He then went on to play the best ball of his life when it mattered most after that, so I think everything is correctable, it’s just up to him to not go into “Hero mode” and force things.

[Chandler#81]

“are receivers open question - with crappy film snaps”
 

😳

Stay in school, kids!

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Here is one on the INT to Gardner...Shakir is sitting WIDE OPEN with nobody anywhere near him as a short outlet option...would have been at least 15-20 yards, there was literally nobody near him.

 

 

 

On 2nd and 17 when you NEED to get like 8-10.  Throw him towards the sideline and let him make a freakin play.