Odds

[Italian Bills]

Good morning everyone.

 

So now, after a good night of sleep, cool head maybe, what are your odds for:

 

- win the Division

- top seed AFC

- reach the SB

- win the SB

 

And what were before the Jets game ? 
 

I remain confident, very confident in this Team, even with its weak spots, so my odds were (b/f Jets game) and now are: 

 

- from 90% to 80% bc Miami and Jets are not so weak

- from 75% to 60% bc KC still here and most of all now we have a not waited loss in the column

- from 55% to 45% bc we are not so much superior to think we are unbeatable 

- from 50 to 50 bc if and when there, is always a coin toss 

 

Listening your points. 

 

 

[QCity]

Current odds are -470 Division (82%) +160 conference (38%) and +300 SB (25%).

 

Listen to the books that back up their claims with actual money, not the emotional homers.

[Nextmanup]

Still have great odds to win the SB at 25%, but of course that also means 75% we don't win the SB.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

538 model which I cling to in games like these to try and not overreact like I did after the Jags game last year.

 

Playoffs - 96%

Division - 68%

1st round bye - 44%

Win Super Bowl - 17%

 

I think that's about right as Josh has traditionally been able to bounce back and things aren't as always bad as they seem.  If he puts up another clunker though it's absolutely time to panic.  McDermott's team going through their usual middle season wtf happened to our run defense before getting it figured out.  I like having Miami and the Jets at home in December.  I'm not panicking....yet.

 

[Dan Darragh]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

538 model which I cling to in games like these to try and not overreact like I did after the Jags game last year.

 

Playoffs - 96%

Division - 68%

1st round bye - 44%

Win Super Bowl - 17%

 

I think that's about right as Josh has traditionally been able to bounce back and things aren't as always bad as they seem.  If he puts up another clunker though it's absolutely time to panic.  McDermott's team going through their usual middle season wtf happened to our run defense before getting it figured out.  I like having Miami and the Jets at home in December.  I'm not panicking....yet.

 

I hope 538 is more objective about sports than they are about politics.

[Gunsgoodtime]

8 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

I hope 538 is more objective about sports than they are about politics.

By the look of those absurd stats they just posted, apparently not.  Those odds, especially the 1st 3 are extremely optimistic for even the most positive fan.  Those look like current 8-0 record odds lol

Just now, Gunsgoodtime said:

 

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by Gunsgoodtime

[Doc Brown]

20 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

By the look of those absurd stats they just posted, apparently not.  Those odds, especially the 1st 3 are extremely optimistic for even the most positive fan.  Those look like current 8-0 record odds lol

 

If the season were to end today we'd be the number one seed.  We beat the other three current division leaders in our conference.  We have the highest plus minus points differential in the NFL.  This loss sucked but these models avoid recency bias.  Other models show similar odds.

[Gunsgoodtime]

5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

If the season were to end today we'd be the number one seed.  We beat the other three current division leaders in our conference.  We have the highest plus minus points differential in the NFL.  This loss sucked but these models avoid recency bias.  Other models show similar odds.

Not arguing with it, I am not a betting man, and I guess this is why.  The numbers don't add up in my mind.  Seems like very high odds.