The NFL Head Coaching pipeline... running dry?

[GunnerBill]

This thread is really a response to the conversations in another thread about whether or not the Colts should fire Frank Reich either during or after this season. On the face of it my view is if he fails, again, to make the playoffs then he has probably had his shot and they should move on. In isolation I believe that strongly. However, the one thing that makes me question myself is - who are you replacing him with?

 

There have been SEVENTEEN Head Coaching changes over the last two seasons. That is more than half the league (though actually only fifteen teams have changed Head Coach in that time because the Texans and the Jaguars have both changed twice). We already have one firing this year to make it essentially eighteen - though obviously that vacancy is unfilled. My contention is that so much churn has really hollowed out the candidate pool at least among current assistant coaches. Sure, there is Sean Payton out there and if he wants to coach next year one imagines he would have his pick of the jobs. Then there is the ever looming prospect of Jim Harbaugh who we know wanted the Vikings job last year and had told people at Michigan he was expecting to leave before things change. I believe he still wants to coach in the NFL again and eventually it will happen. Of course there are other college names like Matt Campbell and Luke Fickell that have been thrown out there but the "pluck a college coach from an overachieving mid-tier programme and make him an NFL Head Coach" approach has given us Doug Marrone, Greg Schiano, Kliff Kingsbury and Matt Rhule in the last decade. One might expect that will put the idea to bed for a bit. 

 

What I am particularly looking at is those in the coordinator ranks that might be considered for the step up and it is relatively slim pickings. Excluding those who are simply not doing a good enough job as a coordinator to put themselves in the running they fall broadly into four buckets:

1. Retreads (mainly defensive);

2. Those for whom it hasn't happened yet for a reason;

3. Intriguing options but first year coordinators; and

4. Those that feel like the most legitimate contenders. 

 

So let me break it down as I see it:

1. Retreads (mainly defensive)

Leslie Frazier - Bills DC - has had interviews the past two years, but is well into his 60s and made just one playoff appearance in a 3 year run as Head Coach of the Vikings;

Gus Bradley - Colts DC - Had a disastrous spell as Head Coach with the Jaguars. Not had interviews for Head Coaching roles since and looks like seeing out his career as a well-regarded coordinator.

Steve Spagnuolo - Chiefs DC - Went 10-38 in three seasons as Rams Head Coach and when he got a chance as interim Head Coach with the Giants in 2017 he went 1-3. Looks like a career DC now.

Dan Quinn - Cowboys DC - Took the Falcons to a Superbowl (which they should have won) but his reign there disintegrated afterwards amid multiple coordinator changes on both sides of the ball. Has rehabilitated his reputation in Dallas. 

Jak Del Rio - Commanders DC - Went 93-94 in 12 years as a Head Coach with the Jaguars and Raiders but just three playoff appearances and one playoff win in that time. Commanders defense seems to be underachieving. 

Vance Joseph - Cardinals DC - Went 11-21 through two pretty desperate years as Head Coach in Denver and John Elway almost made him a one and done Head Coach too. No HC interviews since. 

Raheem Morris - Rams DC - Made the shortlist for the Minnesota job earlier this year and had a second interview. Previous Head Coaching stint brought no playoffs in three years with the Buccs.

Ben McAdoo - Panthers OC - Did take the Giants to the playoffs in his first year as a Head Coach back in 2016, but was fired part-way through the season that followed with a 2-10 record. 

 

2. Those for whom it hasn't happened yet for a reason

Greg Roman - Ravens OC - one of the most creative offensive minds in football who has coordinated productive offenses for three teams. But he is a run game guy in the era of the pass and has a gruff personality that might not be suited to running a team.

Eric Bieniemy - Chiefs OC - Despite all the Chiefs offensive success and multiple interviews in recent years Bieniemy is not yet a HC. Personality questions hover around him and a recent public row with Mahomes on the sideline doesn't help. 

Joe Lombardi - Chargers OC - In his second spell as an OC after 3 years with the Lions and two successful stints as Drew Brees's QB coach in New Orleans. But his offenses are plain and predictable. Did interview with Houston in January. 

Kellen Moore - Cowboys OC - In his two years as OC with his starting Quarterback Moore has two #1 ranked offenses. He has had interviews for Head Coaching jobs in the past but is very well paid as the OC in Dallas and can afford to wait for the perfect situation.

Pete Carmichael Jr - Saints OC - The longest serving OC in football who was Sean Payton's right-hand man for over a decade has proved this year that he can coordinate and offense and call plays without his mentor. Saints are top 10 in yards and points.

Byron Leftwich - Buccaneers OC - In his second spell as an offensive coordinator after a short stint in Arizona with Josh Rosen. Calling plays in Bruce Arians's absence but the offense looks disjointed and questions remain about leadership.

Teryl Austin - Steelers DC - Back in the middle of the last decade Austin was a hot Head Coaching candidate for 2-3 years during his spell as Lions DC. His star has waned somewhat since and his record of producing top defenses is not impressive.

Wink Martindale - Giants DC - Reminds me a bit of Bruce Arians in the fact that he has been a top coordinator for a number of years but has had limited looks as a Head Coach and his "no BS" persona may be part of the reason why. Unlikely to tell owners what they want to hear.

Kris Richard - Saints co-DC - Richard was a hot name during his spells in Seattle and Dallas and interviewed for multiple Head Coaching positions. He then fell off the map for a few years before re-emerging with the Saints. Firey personality might put people off?

 

3.  Intriguing options but in their first year as coordinators

Ken Dorsey - Bills OC - The Bills offense has barely skipped a beat since Dorsey replaced Brian Daboll who parlayed four years as OC in Buffalo into a Head Coaching job for the upstart Giants.

Mike Kafka - Giants OC - Kafka joined the aforementioned Daboll in producing an efficient offense from an undertalented group in New York, leaning on the run game and Saquon Barkley.

Ejiro Evero - Broncos DC - The best decision Nathaniel Hackett has made so far in his blundering reign with Denver was to pluck Evero out of his role as defensive backs coach and pass game coordinator with the Rams. 

 

4. The most legitimate contenders

Shane Steichen - Eagles OC - Steichen worked his way up the Chargers organisation before becoming OC in 2019. Did a good job with a rookie Justin Herbert and his work in Philly with Jalen Hurts has been impressive. Only possible knock might be not much play calling experience as Sirianni calls the Eagles plays?

Shane Waldron - Seahawks OC - Came off the vaunted McVay conveyor belt to call plays in Seattle the past season and a half. His work with Geno Smith makes him a standout candidate. 

Jonathan Gannon - Eagles DC - Really reminds me of Sean McDermott and there is a lot of similarity in his defenses. Started out on the personnel side with the Rams and had interviews with the Broncos and the Vikings last year. 

DeMeco Ryans - 49ers DC - Former second round pick of the Texans who made the jump from Quality Control coach to Defensive Coordinator in just four years. Understood to be loved by his players. Has the ingredients to be a good one. 

 

 

Take it away TBD..... who off the list would you interview or hire if you were the GM or owner of a team needing a Head Coach?

 

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Dablitzkrieg]

DeMeco Ryans intrigues me.  I think he is a great motivator.

[17islongenough]

Fine I'll put my hat into the ring.   

 

Experience 1 year of football in middle school

[US Egg]

Not as dry as lack of quality QB’s and RB’s.

[HOUSE]

Most of these listed coaches would do well if the owner and fan base would give them some freaking time

But they wont....24 months then the hook

[K D]

I think teams tried a lot of the younger up and coming and college guys last cycle. It might be retread season in 2023 and one of the top guys will surely be Leslie Frazier

[Big Turk]

I think they are finding out the same thing but with a twist...young guys can do it, but if they aren't head coach material it doesn't matter if they are young or not, it's not going to go well.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Big Turk

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

It's probably a year too early but I could see Dorsey being a legit candidate. He knows the culture of one of the top organizations in the league. Learned under Daboll. And Daboll has proven (in the short term) to be able to take his system and what he learned from the Bills organization to another team and have success. I love what both the Bills and Giants have done, bringing in the head coach and GM from the same organization. I think that is the model to follow. So maybe when looking at potential head coaching candidates we also need to look at GM candidates from the same team. And which teams will have both GM and head coach openings?

 

Frazier deserves a look but his age is a factor against him at this point.

[mannc]

I think Daboll’s success in NY bodes well for the McDermott coaching tree.  If the Bills continue to win, Dorsey will be “one and done” as the Bills’ OC. I think Frazier may get a shot, too…

[stinky finger]

Are GunnerBill threads still a thing?

 

Cute

[Mango]

My only point of correction is that I actually think Ken Dorsey is better than “we haven’t skipped a beat”. I think Dorsey has been a better OC/Play caller for Allen and Co. than Daboll was.

 

I hope Buffalo pays Dorsey enough to not want to leave in the near future. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

I believe most of the reason that there is a high coaching turnover is that owners and GMs often get blinded by stats of offenses and defenses that coaches run, rather than what really matters...can the coach relate to and lead a group full of men.

 

This is also, by and large why I believe most college coaches fail at the NFL level. They have wonderful ideas but struggle to motivate players that cannot be motivated by fear and intimidation tactics. 

 

Coaches that are successful are successful for a reason. They are leaders first and foremost. They relate to the players, motivate and teach. 

 

Off your list I see a few guys that would fit that bill for me.

 

DeMeco Ryans is an obvious choice. From things I've heard Mike Kafka would be one to keep a close eye on. And depending on the situation on my team...yes, Leslie Frazier. I thought he was actually the perfect guy for the Texans last year when they hired Culley. A calm steady coach after the hectic chaos of Bill O'Brein would have fit well...and that's the route they ended up going with Culley. Main difference is the experience level as a HC would have given a bit more of a legit chance. Houston seems to have gone that route again this year with Lovie.

[boyst]

Great post.

 

My favorite thing of all of this was the Dorsey meltdown where talking clowns on TV said it hurts his chances as an HC. There is no way in hell a team of players wouldn't respect the hell out of that. Even if owners balk at that the fans and players love that *****

 

 

[Dan Darragh]

You forgot Bill Cowher and Brian Billick

[dpberr]

The NFL could build a better coaching pipeline with a legit minor league NFL infrastructure where coaches and GMs could learn on the job.  It's not revolutionary, it's how the MLB, NBA and NHL do it.  Learn the ropes in the minors.

 

I think a big component of coaching success is how a head coach works with a general manager. The Bills are a great example, but you can see it with the NYG.  Schoen and Daboll are on the same page, all the time.  San Francisco and Kansas City are other examples. 

 

In Detroit, the Lions hired GM Holmes and HC Campbell separately, and there's risk there for a lot of disconnect.  

 

 

[mrags]

So…. Your saying Frazier has a shot this year? 

[FireChans]

23 minutes ago, Mango said:

My only point of correction is that I actually think Ken Dorsey is better than “we haven’t skipped a beat”. I think Dorsey has been a better OC/Play caller for Allen and Co. than Daboll was.

 

I hope Buffalo pays Dorsey enough to not want to leave in the near future. 

Does Dorsey know who Dawson Knox is?

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

This thread is really a response to the conversations in another thread about whether or not the Colts should fire Frank Reich either during or after this season. On the face of it my view is if he fails, again, to make the playoffs then he has probably had his shot and they should move on. In isolation I believe that strongly. However, the one thing that makes me question myself is - who are you replacing him with?

 

There have been SEVENTEEN Head Coaching changes over the last two seasons. That is more than half the league (though actually only fifteen teams have changed Head Coach in that time because the Texans and the Jaguars have both changed twice). We already have one firing this year to make it essentially eighteen - though obviously that vacancy is unfilled. My contention is that so much churn has really hollowed out the candidate pool at least among current assistant coaches. Sure, there is Sean Payton out there and if he wants to coach next year one imagines he would have his pick of the jobs. Then there is the ever looming prospect of Jim Harbaugh who we know wanted the Vikings job last year and had told people at Michigan he was expecting to leave before things change. I believe he still wants to coach in the NFL again and eventually it will happen. Of course there are other college names like Matt Campbell and Luke Fickell that have been thrown out there but the "pluck a college coach from an overachieving mid-tier programme and make him an NFL Head Coach" approach has given us Doug Marrone, Greg Schiano, Kliff Kingsbury and Matt Rhule in the last decade. One might expect that will put the idea to bed for a bit. 

 

What I am particularly looking at is those in the coordinator ranks that might be considered for the step up and it is relatively slim pickings. Excluding those who are simply not doing a good enough job as a coordinator to put themselves in the running they fall broadly into four buckets:

1. Retreads (mainly defensive);

2. Those for whom it hasn't happened yet for a reason;

3. Intriguing options but first year coordinators; and

4. Those that feel like the most legitimate contenders. 

 

So let me break it down as I see it:

1. Retreads (mainly defensive)

Leslie Frazier - Bills DC - has had interviews the past two years, but is well into his 60s and made just one playoff appearance in a 3 year run as Head Coach of the Vikings;

Gus Bradley - Colts DC - Had a disastrous spell as Head Coach with the Jaguars. Not had interviews for Head Coaching roles since and looks like seeing out his career as a well-regarded coordinator.

Steve Spagnuolo - Chiefs DC - Went 10-38 in three seasons as Rams Head Coach and when he got a chance as interim Head Coach with the Giants in 2017 he went 1-3. Looks like a career DC now.

Dan Quinn - Cowboys DC - Took the Falcons to a Superbowl (which they should have won) but his reign there disintegrated afterwards amid multiple coordinator changes on both sides of the ball. Has rehabilitated his reputation in Dallas. 

Jak Del Rio - Commanders DC - Went 93-94 in 12 years as a Head Coach with the Jaguars and Raiders but just three playoff appearances and one playoff win in that time. Commanders defense seems to be underachieving. 

Vance Joseph - Cardinals DC - Went 11-21 through two pretty desperate years as Head Coach in Denver and John Elway almost made him a one and done Head Coach too. No HC interviews since. 

Raheem Morris - Rams DC - Made the shortlist for the Minnesota job earlier this year and had a second interview. Previous Head Coaching stint brought no playoffs in three years with the Buccs.

Ben McAdoo - Panthers OC - Did take the Giants to the playoffs in his first year as a Head Coach back in 2016, but was fired part-way through the season that followed with a 2-10 record. 

 

2. Those for whom it hasn't happened yet for a reason

Greg Roman - Ravens OC - one of the most creative offensive minds in football who has coordinated productive offenses for three teams. But he is a run game guy in the era of the pass and has a gruff personality that might not be suited to running a team.

Eric Bieniemy - Chiefs OC - Despite all the Chiefs offensive success and multiple interviews in recent years Bieniemy is not yet a HC. Personality questions hover around him and a recent public row with Mahomes on the sideline doesn't help. 

Joe Lombardi - Chargers OC - In his second spell as an OC after 3 years with the Lions and two successful stints as Drew Brees's QB coach in New Orleans. But his offenses are plain and predictable. Did interview with Houston in January. 

Kellen Moore - Cowboys OC - In his two years as OC with his starting Quarterback Moore has two #1 ranked offenses. He has had interviews for Head Coaching jobs in the past but is very well paid as the OC in Dallas and can afford to wait for the perfect situation.

Pete Carmichael Jr - Saints OC - The longest serving OC in football who was Sean Payton's right-hand man for over a decade has proved this year that he can coordinate and offense and call plays without his mentor. Saints are top 10 in yards and points.

Byron Leftwich - Buccaneers OC - In his second spell as an offensive coordinator after a short stint in Arizona with Josh Rosen. Calling plays in Bruce Arians's absence but the offense looks disjointed and questions remain about leadership.

Teryl Austin - Steelers DC - Back in the middle of the last decade Austin was a hot Head Coaching candidate for 2-3 years during his spell as Lions DC. His star has waned somewhat since and his record of producing top defenses is not impressive.

Wink Martindale - Giants DC - Reminds me a bit of Bruce Arians in the fact that he has been a top coordinator for a number of years but has had limited looks as a Head Coach and his "no BS" persona may be part of the reason why. Unlikely to tell owners what they want to hear.

Kris Richard - Saints co-DC - Richard was a hot name during his spells in Seattle and Dallas and interviewed for multiple Head Coaching positions. He then fell off the map for a few years before re-emerging with the Saints. Firey personality might put people off?

 

3.  Intriguing options but in their first year as coordinators

Ken Dorsey - Bills OC - The Bills offense has barely skipped a beat since Dorsey replaced Brian Daboll who parlayed four years as OC in Buffalo into a Head Coaching job for the upstart Giants.

Mike Kafka - Giants OC - Kafka joined the aforementioned Daboll in producing an efficient offense from an undertalented group in New York, leaning on the run game and Saquon Barkley.

Ejiro Evero - Broncos DC - The best decision Nathaniel Hackett has made so far in his blundering reign with Denver was to pluck Evero out of his role as defensive backs coach and pass game coordinator with the Rams. 

 

4. The most legitimate contenders

Shane Steichen - Eagles OC - Steichen worked his way up the Chargers organisation before becoming OC in 2019. Did a good job with a rookie Justin Herbert and his work in Philly with Jalen Hurts has been impressive. Only possible knock might be not much play calling experience as Sirianni calls the Eagles plays?

Shane Waldron - Seahawks OC - Came off the vaunted McVay conveyor belt to call plays in Seattle the past season and a half. His work with Geno Smith makes him a standout candidate. 

Jonathan Gannon - Eagles DC - Really reminds me of Sean McDermott and there is a lot of similarity in his defenses. Started out on the personnel side with the Rams and had interviews with the Broncos and the Vikings last year. 

DeMeco Ryans - 49ers DC - Former second round pick of the Texans who made the jump from Quality Control coach to Defensive Coordinator in just four years. Understood to be loved by his players. Has the ingredients to be a good one. 

 

 

Take it away TBD..... who off the list would you interview or hire if you were the GM or owner of a team needing a Head Coach?

 

 

If I was hiring a new regime, I would only hire from the Bills/49ers/Chiefs/Ravens.

 

I would do exactly what the Giants did. Pair their best coordinator with their best FO guy and get them on the same page early.

 

It’s a total mistake to pair up two ransoms from different orgs. The Bills did it for years.

Edited November 6, 2022 by FireChans

[MiltonWaddams]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If I was hiring a new regime, I would only hire from the Bills/49ers/Chiefs/Ravens.

 

I would do exactly what the Giants did. Pair their best coordinator with their best FO guy and get them on the same page early.

 

It’s a total mistake to pair up two ransoms from different orgs. The Bills did it for years.

You should definitely add the Eagles to that list. The current regime has been doing a very good job.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

You should definitely add the Eagles to that list. The current regime has been doing a very good job.

Thought about it, but they haven't had the consistency at HC which is hugely important IMO.

 

Sirianni may be great, and Pederson can coach in the NFL but IMO it would be too early to believe in their coaching staffs.

 

I would include Saints FO + Payton.