Do you see the Josh Allen era Bills as having a "window"?

[BuffaloBill]

It’s really hard to say. The Bills will remain very competitive as last BGT as JA is healthy. However, with his style of play it’s hard to say when the hits will take a toll on him. 
 

He probably has 5ish prime years left then it becomes a little bit of a luck game. He could go for 5 more or he could physically crash. Can Newton and Big Ben are probable comparisons as he plays with the style of the former and has the build of the latter. Hard to say. 

[MarkyMannn]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

It’s really hard to say. The Bills will remain very competitive as last BGT as JA is healthy. However, with his style of play it’s hard to say when the hits will take a toll on him. 
 

He probably has 5ish prime years left then it becomes a little bit of a luck game. He could go for 5 more or he could physically crash. Can Newton and Big Ben are probable comparisons as he plays with the style of the former and has the build of the latter. Hard to say. 

Get where you're coming from on the hits. Hopefully over time his game evolves to "safer" play.

 

As for the window, Brees & Rodgers, 2 HOF QB's, over like 40 years each only got one SB win

[4merper4mer]

13 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I think we can be optimistic about the future without being overconfident. There’s always a window and it’s never certain when it will close.

 

Look at the Colts. That looked like it would be a decade-long run, with great weapons, a great defense, and Andrew Luck. Then he retired.

 

Look at the Texans. I would have imagined they’d win at least one SB with a 24 year old Deshaun plus Deandre Hopkins.

 

Look at Seattle. Unbeatable defense with a young superstar QB, great fan base and front office… unbelievable WR tandem… then the window closed fast.

 

Being overconfident or promising yourself 10 years of success is dangerous. That’s why every single year counts these next few.

The Texans window didn’t have a happy ending, that is true, but it was an outlier of a situation.

 

Seattle’s window was in fact open for years, they just failed to go through.

 

Unlike Andrew Luck, Josh Allen is not the most overrated prospect in the history of team sports.  Allen has proven both his talent and will to win.  Luck was deemed, and in some circles is still regarded, as a franchise saving elite talent on the level of Babe Ruth, Wayne Gretzky or Michael Jordan.  In reality he was the equivalent of an above average player prone to mistakes in critical moments.  Drew Bledsoe-ish if that.  His legend far exceeds the reality.  If he didn’t retire, he’d still be “ofer”.
 

Although I agree that nothing should be taken for granted, your examples fall short IMO.

Edited November 5, 2022 by 4merper4mer

[Motor26]

16 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said:

Get where you're coming from on the hits. Hopefully over time his game evolves to "safer" play.

 

As for the window, Brees & Rodgers, 2 HOF QB's, over like 40 years each only got one SB win

 

I'd take one Super Bowl, then I could die a happy man. 

[Nextmanup]

12 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:

Gone, maybe, keep

I would be very happy with gone, gone, gone.

 

They are all utterly replaceable, and not very good draft selections.

 

Oliver is the best of the three, but he's too small IMO.  I would not have guys like that in the middle of my defensive line.  I would only have these monsters that can't be moved, and weigh a natural 350 lbs.  And then ask them simply to not move....let the athletes run and work around them.

 

 

[mrags]

2 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

There have been multiple teams which have won Superbowls which with backup QBs.

I believe Beane will need to find a candidate to groom to which can be our Reich, someone who can step in and win a game if Josh is dinged and is out part of a game or a game.  Maybe even get trade when backup has had value enhanced by experience with Bills.  The Pegulas have been willing to spend what is needed and they can sign a former player to take the role of confidant and extra head in QB room. 

I was just stating that most of the time, if a teams QB goes down it hurts their chances. It’s not anything new. Usually when teams lose their QB and a backup comes in and does well, the backup ends up taking over anyway. I was saying that as long as Josh is our QB, we shouldn’t havent to worry about missing the playoffs. I stand by that. I also believe with the way Beane and McDermott have this team engineered, that even if Josh were to go down there’s a pretty good shot we make the playoffs anyway. At least assuming we don’t have absolute crap for backup QBs. But it seems Beane won’t allow that. He at least likes to pick up vets that have played in actual games at this level, with some sliver of success. 

[Bobby Hooks]

I haven’t read the whole thread, so sorry if this was already brought up. If we lose Frazier does anyone see a drop off for the D? Is it McDermott’s D that just needs someone running it? 
 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

I gotta say I think, unlike Brady and Rodgers, Josh’s career will max out at 15 years based on the way he plays. He takes a beating and as soon as he loses his ability to get away from blitzers, he will be significantly lesser than what he is. We need to win one in the next four or five years. That’s gonna be Josh’s prime and our best shot

 

That thinking might be a disservice to Josh's mental capacity to play the position and his arm talent. But could be true if he eventually gets to a point where he can't even get out of bed in the mornings. Then it wouldn't matter if he still has the arm and mental aspects of the game.

 

It would be nice if the Bills could win the Super Bowl this year because then I think Allen may dial back a lot of his runs and start avoiding hits and sliding on all of them. He's been quoted as saying right now he just wants to win so badly he will do anything. So win one now and then Allen can take a deep breath and start preserving himself for the long haul.

[DCofNC]

I think it’s pretty clear we are in a window of great opportunity, you have a bunch of guys that are in or close to in their prime and you have some contracts that may be a problem in a few years.  It takes a LOT luck to keep it wide open. This window is wide open, it’s going to take a lot of work and shuffling to keep it looking this good for an extended period of time.  You have to replace Miller, a HOF talent and big impact player, Diggs will slow down etc, so the window can stay open, but it’s not a given you don’t turn into the Packers.

[Simon Says]

15 hours ago, Success said:

Just curious what others think - because I see that all the time on opposing fans message boards, and I don't relate to it.

 

I think the window will be WIDE open as long as JA is QB, and Beane is GM.  I don't need any more proof from either. JA is elite, and Beane seems like a wizard w/ the cap, who knows how to build an A1 team for today, and also keep an eye on building a model for success that's sustainable.  We'll lose players like all great teams do, but he is a very good drafter, finds gems in FA, and has a real vision for keeping this team in contention.

 

I think we'll be knocking on the door for a title every year for at least a decade.  I tend to lean homer, but I also think this is objective based on how good these guys are at their jobs.

 

What say you?

 

Josh's contact ends after the 2028 season,less than a decade. There is an "out" after 2025.

I think this year might be the best shot: Josh's salary takes a huge jump next year and Bills have to deal with the Poyer,Hyde, and  Singletary situations, among others.

[Mr. WEO]

15 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I think we can be optimistic about the future without being overconfident. There’s always a window and it’s never certain when it will close.

 

Look at the Colts. That looked like it would be a decade-long run, with great weapons, a great defense, and Andrew Luck. Then he retired.

 

Look at the Texans. I would have imagined they’d win at least one SB with a 24 year old Deshaun plus Deandre Hopkins.

 

Look at Seattle. Unbeatable defense with a young superstar QB, great fan base and front office… unbelievable WR tandem… then the window closed fast.

 

Being overconfident or promising yourself 10 years of success is dangerous. That’s why every single year counts these next few.

 

Window for what?  SB?  Lots of wins in the regular season?  Decent playoff runs?

 

Colts had a long and squandered window---not with Luck (lol---come on!  no great Defense or weapons), but with Manning.  With him they had 7 one-and-done playoff appearances--4 or them under Tony Dungy when Manning was in his prime and that Offense was STACKED. Solid D too.  They won a single SB (against the Washington Grossmans) in all those years of regular season dominance.

 

The Texans were never going to win a SB with Watson.  Simply no chance.  H e and Hopkins combined for average Offense (17th, 11th,14th, 18th in points, 2 of 4 seasons with a negative point differential/4 wins) that won a single playoff game in 2 appearances.  Put Watson in Josh's place on a stacked team like the Bills--they aren't winning a SB. 

 

Seattle absolutely made the most of what everyone knew would be a small window (when you are basing success on a dominant D, you don't have very long).  Wilson had as many SB appearances and wins and a better playoff record (9-7 vs 9-10) in 10 seasons in SEA than Manning did in 13 in Indy.

 

 

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Josh makes the talent around him better so I don’t really see a window.  McDermott is great at coaching up young defensive backs too

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Josh makes the talent around him better so I don’t really see a window.  McDermott is great at coaching up young defensive backs too

I do agree, Josh is one of those few greats that elevate the guys around him to heights they can’t reach without him.  He’s like Brady and unfortunately Maholmes in that manner.  The biggest problem for Maholmes will be Allen and vice versa.  
 

In terms of legitimate SB contenders, I think we see a big difference in this year vs last year on the D because of Miller and that’s the part I think Bills fans may be missing.  To replace a guy like that is like replacing Allen on the other side.  You don’t get HOF impact players every day, he was a major get for us and let’s face it, with his age, this might be his last year of big production, we simply don’t know.  Hughes was a very good player and Miller brought this D to new heights.  So in those terms, I think this is a window we need to cash in on.  We could have a Colt, Packers, Saints type of deal where you have the QB and a good D, but you are not a dominant force.  Those teams never were out of their window while they had the QB, but they didn’t get much either.

[BuffBillsForLife]

As long as Josh is playing at an elite level they'll always have a shot.  The focus should always be on winning this season though, since who knows what the team will look like in 3, 5, 7, 10 years.

[Dr. K]

18 hours ago, Success said:

Just curious what others think - because I see that all the time on opposing fans message boards, and I don't relate to it.

 

I think the window will be WIDE open as long as JA is QB, and Beane is GM.  I don't need any more proof from either. JA is elite, and Beane seems like a wizard w/ the cap, who knows how to build an A1 team for today, and also keep an eye on building a model for success that's sustainable.  We'll lose players like all great teams do, but he is a very good drafter, finds gems in FA, and has a real vision for keeping this team in contention.

 

I think we'll be knocking on the door for a title every year for at least a decade.  I tend to lean homer, but I also think this is objective based on how good these guys are at their jobs.

 

What say you?

 

It certainly seems that as long as Josh stays healthy the Bills will have a good shot. But I think of the career of Dan Marino, who made (and lost) the Super Bowl very early in his career. Given that and the history of success of the Dolphins under Don Shula, everybody expected Marino to be in the Super Bowl regularly and to win a couple of Lombardi trophies. Never happened.

 

I think the Bills have every opportunity to avoid that fate, but you never know.  

[Mango]

They will have a shot as long as Josh is Josh. Some years their odds will be better than others no different than the Saints, Pats, Colts etc of old. 

[97bills]

18 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Same although there may be a down year here or there while they reload. By down year like 9-8 or 10-7 and might miss the playoffs.

This is true, nothing you can do but reload. The goods we will always be in games because of Allen. 

[97bills]

5 hours ago, MarkyMannn said:

Get where you're coming from on the hits. Hopefully over time his game evolves to "safer" play.

 

As for the window, Brees & Rodgers, 2 HOF QB's, over like 40 years each only got one SB win

Football is such a team sport. That’s why what NE did is just crazy 

[Joe Ferguson]

The Bills will win 4 Super Bowls in a row to bury the 4 Super Bowl losses in a row.

[PrimeTime101]

there is a window... but its only that little one near your roof for your attic.

 

You have an aging Poyer and Hyde. Poyer likely gone next season and Hyde well... maybe 2 more years out of Hyde? Up till this year with injuries, we have had the luxury of having the best FS SS combo in the league. that small window is closing or shut based on if Hyde makes it back for a game or 2 in playoffs. we also have just 2-3 years left of Von Miller before he starts really feeling the age. Its a shame our secondary has been this beat up this season.

 

We will always be in contention with the dude named Josh Allen at the helm. The SB window will never close that's the big bay window letting all that sun come in