Potentially good news for Bills long-term weather wise. Warmer temps, less snow predicted for WNY

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

What goods or services will you be selling in connection with that mark?

 

 

 

Beside the obvious clothing line, I expect to do quite well on our suntan lotion and cabana rentals along the lake. There is also a healthy markup in shaved ice cones. There is no shortage of opportunity here. 

[Bubba Gump]

Chance of lake effect snow this wknd and even colder for the Browns game. I never trust those seasonal forecasts. The Farmers Almanac says this is gonna be a brutal winter. I don't believe the weather until I'm actually driving to the game. 

[Big Turk]

Record high 3 days in a row and temps near 80 Saturday was pretty damn nice for early November

[Wacka]

Saturday rain/snow mix. Sunday possible lake effect and high 40.

[Special K]

On 11/2/2022 at 12:27 PM, Big Turk said:

Due to weak La Nina conditions in the third year...typically gives us warmer temps and less snowfall(although this doesn't mean a single day or stretch of time can't be cold and snowy, just usually reduces the odds).

 

Hoping we get a winter similar to a few years ago where it was in the 40s and 50s through much of December and into January and everyone was sitting around wondering WTF was going on. Believe we ended the season with 37 inches of snow which is well, well below normal and didn't even have a single foot+ snow event that year.

 

Long article breaking things down if anyone wants to read...also includes Europe forecast which is less important to this topic.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-more-snow-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 

Sooooo, what are your thoughts on this article now??

 

Just kidding....I hope everyone is staying safe up there. 👍

 

 

[JoPoy88]

3 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

Sooooo, what are your thoughts on this article now??

 

Just kidding....I hope everyone is staying safe up there. 👍

 

 

It’s still largely accurate. The large snowfall is due to warm temps over the lake.

[muppy]

this is my friends driveway in Orchard Park. The bump you see is her small SUV buried. Yikes

 

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2022 by muppy

[CSBill]

On 11/2/2022 at 12:29 PM, I am the egg man said:

So, I can leave the snowblower in the back shed?

 

Awesome!

 

That take didn't wear well.

[strive_for_five_guy]

On 11/2/2022 at 1:45 PM, CoffeeDrip said:

I hate everything about this. Winter is one of the few things that keeps me living here and the more warm/green winters we get the less I want to stick around. 😑

So I guess you will be sticking around? 😇

Edited November 19, 2022 by strive_for_five_guy

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Jobs where you're ok being more wrong than right

 

Weathermen

Baseball players

 

 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Pine Barrens Mafia

[ArtVandalay]

37 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Jobs where you're ok being more wrong than right

 

Weathermen

Baseball players

 

 

Insurance Sales

[teef]

9 hours ago, muppy said:

this is my friends driveway in Orchard Park. The bump you see is her small SUV buried. Yikes

 

 

 

 

I just spoke with my friend in orchard park.  He has a tractor with a plow on the front, and it took him 8 hours to plow out to the end of the driveway.  He’s very proud that he’s one of the few people in OP that can actually get out if needed. 

[Simon]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Jobs where you're ok being more wrong than right

 

Weathermen

Baseball players

 

 

 

TBD moderator...

[TheWeatherMan]

On 11/2/2022 at 5:27 PM, Big Turk said:

Due to weak La Nina conditions in the third year...typically gives us warmer temps and less snowfall(although this doesn't mean a single day or stretch of time can't be cold and snowy, just usually reduces the odds).

 

Hoping we get a winter similar to a few years ago where it was in the 40s and 50s through much of December and into January and everyone was sitting around wondering WTF was going on. Believe we ended the season with 37 inches of snow which is well, well below normal and didn't even have a single foot+ snow event that year.

 

Long article breaking things down if anyone wants to read...also includes Europe forecast which is less important to this topic.  El Nina 

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-more-snow-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Good article but your takeaway is completely false even more so for Western NY.  The cold phase is called La Niña.  If a La Niña is weak, it would lead to warmer than normal temps therefore Lake Erie (a very shallow lake) would stay mostly unfrozen leading to a wind fetch westerly thru northwesterly as lake effect events throughout the entire Winter.  Any frontal boundary moving across the lakes would also likely lead to lake enhanced snow fall.  There is a reason why West NY receives more snowfall during the late fall / early winter as opposed to late winter, it’s because the lakes don’t ice and the water temps stay warm.  You might have less snow events, because of the Jet steam orientation and slightly increased surface temperatures but the severity of the events would be significantly higher.

Edited November 19, 2022 by TheWeatherMan

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

45 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

TBD moderator...

Boy howdy 

[CoffeeDrip]

4 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

So I guess you will be sticking around? 😇

[Simon Says]

Should never have posted this 

[Bills!Win!]

On 11/2/2022 at 12:27 PM, Big Turk said:

Due to weak La Nina conditions in the third year...typically gives us warmer temps and less snowfall(although this doesn't mean a single day or stretch of time can't be cold and snowy, just usually reduces the odds).

 

Hoping we get a winter similar to a few years ago where it was in the 40s and 50s through much of December and into January and everyone was sitting around wondering WTF was going on. Believe we ended the season with 37 inches of snow which is well, well below normal and didn't even have a single foot+ snow event that year.

 

Long article breaking things down if anyone wants to read...also includes Europe forecast which is less important to this topic.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-more-snow-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Post of the century 

[WotAGuy]

7 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Good article but your takeaway is completely false even more so for Western NY.  The cold phase is called La Niña.  If a La Niña is weak, it would lead to warmer than normal temps therefore Lake Erie (a very shallow lake) would stay mostly unfrozen leading to a wind fetch westerly thru northwesterly as lake effect events throughout the entire Winter.  Any frontal boundary moving across the lakes would also likely lead to lake enhanced snow fall.  There is a reason why West NY receives more snowfall during the late fall / early winter as opposed to late winter, it’s because the lakes don’t ice and the water temps stay warm.  You might have less snow events, because of the Jet steam orientation and slightly increased surface temperatures but the severity of the events would be significantly higher.

Yup, that’s what I got out of it too. 🤣

[NoHuddleKelly12]

7 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Good article but your takeaway is completely false even more so for Western NY.  The cold phase is called La Niña.  If a La Niña is weak, it would lead to warmer than normal temps therefore Lake Erie (a very shallow lake) would stay mostly unfrozen leading to a wind fetch westerly thru northwesterly as lake effect events throughout the entire Winter.  Any frontal boundary moving across the lakes would also likely lead to lake enhanced snow fall.  There is a reason why West NY receives more snowfall during the late fall / early winter as opposed to late winter, it’s because the lakes don’t ice and the water temps stay warm.  You might have less snow events, because of the Jet steam orientation and slightly increased surface temperatures but the severity of the events would be significantly higher.

This post proves TBD is the Borg of hive knowledge—I bet one of you knows how to engineer an Artemis rocket too! 😜