Bills run game improvement: Weeks 1-4 compared to Weeks 5-8

[Logic]

In today's "NFL Rewind" article on The Athletic, there's an interesting bit about the Bills. 

The pics and clips attached won't paste here, but if you have access to The Athletic, it's worth checking out.

https://theathletic.com/3753317/2022/11/02/nfl-week-8-rewind-christian-mccaffrey/

 

Bills’ run game
 

Picking nits with what the Buffalo Bills are doing on offense is like complaining that Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t shoot enough 3-pointers or the “Lord of the Rings” movies are too long. Every complaint can be addressed by pointing at the screen and saying, “You’re kind of right, but are you watching this?”

 

The Bills are at or near the top in every metric for overall offensive numbers (and that has been true after every game they have played). But there is still room to create even more consistency in an already potent and effective attack.

Josh Allen is one of the most dangerous weapons the NFL has seen in recent years. And I’m sure the Bills’ staff enjoys having someone who can stun with a designed QB run or make one of his jaw-dropping plays. But, over the first four weeks of the season, the Bills’ run game outside of Allen was — to put it mildly — putrid.

(NFL rank in parentheses)

Bills Weeks 1-4 vs. Weeks 5-8:

Designed Rush Rate

Weeks 1-4:  26.9% (32)

Weeks 5-8:  32.8% (26)

Rush Success Rate

Weeks 1-4:  35.5% (26)

Weeks 5-8:  53.2% (T-1)

EPA per Designed Rush

Weeks 1-4:  -.32 (32)

Weeks 5-8:   .08 (7)

 

There’s no magic bullet for the Bills’ improvement. My first hypothesis was that the Bills simply had been going under center more often and that would correlate to a better rushing attack, but they’ve actually done that less over their past three games (29.2 percent of first- and second-down snaps down to 28 percent).

So, the shotgun runs are still a part of this offense. The Bills also used 11 personnel at about the same clip from Weeks 1-4 as they did from Weeks 5-8. However, Buffalo has become more effective out of those plays by diversifying its run looks...

My other working theory was that, perhaps, the Bills had made a tweak in personnel usage to give their run game a boost. There have been some indicators of that.

The Bills have used fullback Reggie Gilliam to great effect this season. They were in 21 personnel for 94 snaps total last season, but they’ve already gone to that setup 72 times with Gilliam this season, while also increasing their success rate (44.2 percent to 47.4 percent). Having a fullback in the backfield can diversify the concepts an offense can get to in its run game, because the fullback can be used as a true adjustor who can move where needed and change the angle of attack.

The use of 21 personnel has been opening things for the Bills passing game, too, like on the 62-yard Gabe Davis touchdown against the Steelers:

 

In Week 6 against the Chiefs, the Bills used more 12 personnel on first and second downs (seven snaps) than they had over the previous five weeks combined (five snaps). They averaged .26 EPA per play out of that personnel grouping...

 

Against the Packers on Sunday night, the Bills increased their 12 personnel even more, not just in usage but also in the size of that grouping. They brought in a sixth offensive lineman for six plays against the Packers, using OT Bobby Hart as the second tight end and going after the Packers’ leaky run defense for gains of 9, 5 and 17 yards, respectively, in the first half...

 

Perhaps you’ve noticed that all of the efficient run plays above came on different run concepts, which will give opposing defensive coaches additional things to game plan for.

It’s another tool in the Bills’ toolbox as defenses try to hunker down on tendencies as the season goes along.

Allen will provide most of the answers to any problem, but it’s nice to know that he won’t always have to be the solution.

 

[Big Turk]

I think this coincided with:

 

1) Doing a lot more pin and pull runs which spurred the improvement last season late in the year and moving away from the inside zone concepts to some degree.

2) Getting better at some of the inside zone concepts with more practice and better OLine coaching under Kramer.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I think this coincided with:

 

1) Doing a lot more pin and pull runs which spurred the improvement last season late in the year and moving away from the inside zone concepts to some degree.

2) Getting better at some of the inside zone concepts with more practice and better OLine coaching under Kramer.

 

Once teams start to play the pass more in those RPOs - the run piece tends to work better.  I feel like they've been throwing diggs in the slot on a lot of these to increase the threat level there and make the LB enter those passing lanes, while allen just reads and hands it off. 

[Rubes]

I love it when Gilliam comes into the game. That guy gives the offense a lot of options, and he’s an excellent run blocker. Not as exciting as when Allen is chucking cannon balls at Diggs or Davis, but it’s fun to watch when Gilliam is in. For me, at least.

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Rubes

[Big Turk]

Just now, Rubes said:

I love it when Gilliam comes into the game. That guy gives the offense a lot of options, and he’s an excellent run blocker. Not as much fun as when Allen is chucking cannon balls for Diggs or Davis, but it’s fun to watch when Gilliam is in. For me, at least.

 

 

I'm curious why they don't just hand it to him as an upback in short yardage situations since they seem to have issues picking up first downs with normal run plays other than QB sneaks.

[NewEra]

Thanks for posting Logic-  interesting read. First time play caller/OC-  New OL coach- New LG and RG.  I figured it would take some time.  Hopefully they continue to improve and make defenses pay for shelling us.  

[msw2112]

I agree with the above post.  Offensive lines need time to "gel."  WIth a new OL coach and some new starters on the line, it takes a few games for this to happen.  Allen's prolific passing in the first few weeks also helps soften defenses against the run.

 

UPDATE:  The post below used "jell" vs. my "gel."  I looked it up and while both are technically correct, "jell" is the more appropriate word.  So the Offensive lines need time to "jell" and ours has started to do so.  Who knew that I would improve my vocabulary through my time on TBD?

Edited November 2, 2022 by msw2112

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Think it's a combo of more 21 personal, plus O-line has had more time to jell, i.e. Bates has gotten more use to playing on opposite side and teams are playing more to defend the pass, so making running easier

[Malazan]

Now if they just keep using it throughout the whole game and don't forget it exists for long parts of games.

[OldTimer1960]

49 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Thanks for posting Logic-  interesting read. First time play caller/OC-  New OL coach- New LG and RG.  I figured it would take some time.  Hopefully they continue to improve and make defenses pay for shelling us.  

Additionally, many of the OL starters missed much of camp.  

[US Egg]

JA17 is the end all regarding every Bills offensive perspective.

[MJS]

Pretty impressive by Dorsey, honestly. He is coming up with some interesting schemes and play calls in the run game. Obviously, the pass game has been top notch too.