Bills trade for Nyheim Hines

[Beck Water]

54 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

its just a matter of how much Josh wants to throw to the RBs. He could have thrown to DS about 20 times last game and gotten 8 yards a chunk every time, especially with the Pack missing two key LBs.  He had one dump down to him, and it went for 16 yards. I just think Josh still loathes those check downs.

 

You look at Eckler in LA. Herbert looks to his first WR option and if not there, usually checks it down. Eckler always makes a guy miss, and he ends up with like 8-10 catches for 90 yards. Hines could easily match or even exceed that production, if Josh feels like it. 

 

You're absolutely right that Josh hates checkdowns, but that's got to be beaten out of him.  I dislike the word "regressing" because people use it to mean all kinds of things just like the definition of "franchise QB" used to be a moving target around here.  But let's say, returning to previous habits of mind.

 

And those previous habits of mind are to attack, attack, attack.  Josh in college: "Coach Bohl, Brett Favre says touchdowns first!".  "I don't care what Favre says, when the play call is throw to the fullback in the flat, throw to the fullback in the flat" (Coach Bohl story) Daboll screaming in Josh's headset in rookie training camp because he did the same thing and got picked. (Josh story)

 

You'll see some of the guys who break down film, guys who were NFL QB like McCown and Warner break down Josh tape and point out plays where there are 3 levels of open receivers and Allen goes for the highest degree of difficulty deeper throw almost every time.  Part of Josh's maturation as a  QB was learning when it pays to take those shallower throws, maintain possession, move the chains. 

 

Earlier in the season, Josh was getting away with it more because when it's 3rd and 4, the D is focused on the short and intermediate routes to convert.  But now it's on tape to the point where it's predictable.  So teams with a good secondary who can take the deep stuff away are playing it.

 

I started watching all-22 of a couple games, and frankly - at times Josh is reverting to his earlier habits of mind and throwing to a well-covered Davis or Diggs with the safety able to read his eyes and close quickly.   On the 2nd pass of the Packers game, Josh had Diggs open short R then maneuvering to get open again inside.  He had Singletary open quickly over the middle, then when he broke the pocket Motor thought he would run for the 1st and turned to block (and Allen could likely have run and slid for the 1st).    At the point where Josh threw, McKenzie had outrun his man and was a safe "mine or no one" throw towards the sideline for a good gain.  But Allen chose to throw to Davis who was covered like a blanket, had the DB between him and the ball, and a safety closing fast.  It could have been picked, just as the later throw to Davis was. 

 

We kind of ding Knox for low productivity and McKenzie for low productivity, but on a lot of what I've seen, they're actually Doing Their Job and getting open.  Is Josh not throwing to them because of practice?  I Don't Know, but I think it's because they're not the most aggressive option.

 

Trust throws are one thing, but on 3rd and 4 from your own 30, move the damned chains.

 

This is really Josh's Achilles Heel to manage - how and when to balance aggressiveness with the sure completion, especially when he gets his adrenaline up and is trying to "go after" a mouthy and physical DB on the other side.

 

Only the Bills can beat the Bills.

 

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Beck Water

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

23 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You're absolutely right that Josh hates checkdowns, but that's got to be beaten out of him.  I dislike the word "regressing" because people use it to mean all kinds of things just like the definition of "franchise QB" used to be a moving target around here.  But let's say, returning to previous habits of mind.

 

And those previous habits of mind are to attack, attack, attack.  Josh in college: "Coach Bohl, Brett Favre says touchdowns first!".  "I don't care what Favre says, when the play call is throw to the fullback in the flat, throw to the fullback in the flat" (Coach Bohl story) Daboll screaming in Josh's headset in rookie training camp because he did the same thing and got picked. (Josh story)

 

You'll see some of the guys who break down film, guys who were NFL QB like McCown and Warner break down Josh tape and point out plays where there are 3 levels of open receivers and Allen goes for the highest degree of difficulty deeper throw almost every time.  Part of Josh's maturation as a  QB was learning when it pays to take those shallower throws, maintain possession, move the chains. 

 

Earlier in the season, Josh was getting away with it more because when it's 3rd and 4, the D is focused on the short and intermediate routes to convert.  But now it's on tape to the point where it's predictable.  So teams with a good secondary who can take the deep stuff away are playing it.

 

I started watching all-22 of a couple games, and frankly - at times Josh is reverting to his earlier habits of mind and throwing to a well-covered Davis or Diggs with the safety able to read his eyes and close quickly.   On the 2nd pass of the Packers game, Josh had Diggs open short R then maneuvering to get open again inside.  He had Singletary open quickly over the middle, then when he broke the pocket Motor thought he would run for the 1st and turned to block (and Allen could likely have run and slid for the 1st).    At the point where Josh threw, McKenzie had outrun his man and was a safe "mine or no one" throw towards the sideline for a good gain.  But Allen chose to throw to Davis who was covered like a blanket, had the DB between him and the ball, and a safety closing fast.  It could have been picked, just as the later throw to Davis was. 

 

We kind of ding Knox for low productivity and McKenzie for low productivity, but on a lot of what I've seen, they're actually Doing Their Job and getting open.  Is Josh not throwing to them because of practice?  I Don't Know, but I think it's because they're not the most aggressive option.

 

Trust throws are one thing, but on 3rd and 4 from your own 30, move the damned chains.

 

This is really Josh's Achilles Heel to manage - how and when to balance aggressiveness with the sure completion, especially when he gets his adrenaline up and is trying to "go after" a mouthy and physical DB on the other side.

 

Only the Bills can beat the Bills.

 

 

Agreed. My two cents on it though is that Josh and these receivers seem to be messing around. They know they are good, and instead of taking easy stuff, they are almost trying the hard stuff, for kicks. 
 

it was like they were trying to stick it those GB corners last week. Against Pittsburgh, I felt they were trying to pick on Wallace. 
 

my hope is that when we need to (playoffs and down the stretch) Josh takes the easy stuff. 

[Beck Water]

43 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Agreed. My two cents on it though is that Josh and these receivers seem to be messing around. They know they are good, and instead of taking easy stuff, they are almost trying the hard stuff, for kicks. 
 

it was like they were trying to stick it those GB corners last week. Against Pittsburgh, I felt they were trying to pick on Wallace. 
 

my hope is that when we need to (playoffs and down the stretch) Josh takes the easy stuff. 

 

Picking on Wallace (I hate to say it because I like the guy) made sense.  He was the #2 here, he lost his starting role in Pittsburgh.  He was the weakest link.  He was the "easy stuff".

 

While it superficially looks like the same thing, I believe that Wallace interception was some kind of miscommunication between Davis and Allen.  Davis put the mailbox flag up much earlier in the route, and in fact, he had Wallace beat.  But instead of throwing over the top so Davis could run into the throw, Allen threw more on a line, with Wallace between Davis and the ball.  Either it was a miscalculation throwing against the wind, Davis was expecting a different throw, or Allen was expecting a different route.

 

If Josh and the WR are "messing around" and trying the hard stuff for "kicks" that would be culpable.   Unprofessional and disrespectful.

 

I don't think they are.  But I do think Allen is almost routinely taking higher degree of difficulty, deeper throws where shorter, more open routes are available.  On the one hand, it's the proper mindset for an "attacking offense".  On the other hand, it can be taken too far.

 

As Dorsey said, words to the effect of 'the good thing is there's a lot on that tape to learn from'.  Since Josh seemed somewhat chastened and upset with himself after the game, here's hoping he'll learn.

Edited November 5, 2022 by Beck Water

[BuffaloBills1998]

https://t.co/dHV4CJzBus Well thankfully Beane traded for Hines and didn’t try to trade for Karma. That dudes season is over

Edited November 5, 2022 by BuffaloBills1998

[UKBillFan]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

https://t.co/dHV4CJzBus Well thankfully Beane traded for Hines and didn’t try to trade for Karma. That dudes season is over

 

They knew about it and he's started the season. Star men very rarely get punished severely for their misdemeanours by the NFL.

Edited November 5, 2022 by UKBillFan

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

I don't think they are.  But I do think Allen is almost routinely taking higher degree of difficulty, deeper throws where shorter, more open routes are available.  On the one hand, it's the proper mindset for an "attacking offense".  On the other hand, it can be taken too far.

 

As Dorsey said, words to the effect of 'the good thing is there's a lot on that tape to learn from'.  Since Josh seemed somewhat chastened and upset with himself after the game, here's hoping he'll learn.

I agree with this, and it’s sort of what I meant by “messing around.” Allen knows there is easier stuff and smarter stuff open but rolls the dice more than he should. I think that is sometimes to take a shot, but sometimes because he just wants to because he knows he is good. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Bold prediction: Hines is a stud on this team.

 

PR TD, Rush TD, Rec TD, Pass TD

 

Grand Slam in his first game as a Bill!!! Haha

[CircleTheWagons99]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

20

Thanks!

[Warcodered]

 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 11/7/2022 at 12:10 PM, Bandito said:

0 rushes

0 receptions 

 

vs the Jets

Hockenson didn't need 2 weeks to learn the playbook. 9 targets,  9 catches, 70 yards. Give Hines the damn ball you puss ies.

[SectionC3]

On 11/5/2022 at 11:30 AM, Beck Water said:

 

Hines has good hands.  78.3% career catch %

 

There's more to making receptions deep than "running under the long ball", or we'd still have Bob Foster around. 

 

What I think the Bills hope for  is that home-run threat from catching passes in the flat or swing passes.  His ability Be That Guy will of course depend on Josh realizing everyone is pretty well covered and hitting him quickly. 

 

Though the occasional wheel route would be nice. 

 

I think Beane specifically mentioned "he can play slot receiver for a game" for a reason.

Me too.   I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there a bit this week.  I suspect we’ll see a few new wrinkles if Keemun plays.  2RBs might be one of them.  (As will, I suspect, some tight line splits like we had against KC and NO in the regular season last year.)

[Mr. WEO]

53 pages!!  I would never have guessed this dude would rack up this many---that's almost as many carries as he had last season!

[sunshynman]

51 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Hockenson didn't need 2 weeks to learn the playbook. 9 targets,  9 catches, 70 yards. Give Hines the damn ball you puss ies.

Josh overthrew him on a long sideline throw. He had a step or two and a good pass was probably a TD. 

 

Other than that, I think he was in just a few other for punt returns. He needs to play/practice with Josh to gain his trust and timing. Should have given him the rock on a few pitches, sweeps, screens, etc. Hopefully more touches this game. But it's going to be hard giving Motor, Cook, and Hines touches. And they elevated Duke, not sure why. Maybe we see a focus on the run and quick throw game. That has been needed since Josh's started struggling!

Edited November 12, 2022 by sunshynman

[hemma]

9 minutes ago, sunshynman said:

Josh overthrew him on a long sideline throw. He had a step or two and a good pass was probably a TD. 

 

Other than that, I think he was in just a few other for punt returns. He needs to play/practice with Josh to gain his trust and timing. Should have given him the rock on a few pitches, sweeps, screens, etc. Hopefully more touches this game. But it's going to be hard giving Motor, Cook, and Hines touches. And they elevated Duke, not sure why. Maybe we see a focus on the run and quick throw game. That has been needed since Josh's started struggling!

 

I missed that about Duke, thanks for posting.  Sure sounds like they are getting ready to play some ‘winter ball’.

[Mat68]

Maybe they are going to use Hines in the slot.  Speed motions and traditional slot.  Instead of having Hines learn both positions have him concentrate on 1.  With Singletary and Cook his biggest impact and the teams need could be slot.

[Scott7975]

I hope to see Hines more active in the game plan this week.  Other teams trades have contributed already.  Time to stop babysitting these athletes and let them play football.  Hines is no rookie.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Hockenson didn't need 2 weeks to learn the playbook. 9 targets,  9 catches, 70 yards. Give Hines the damn ball you puss ies.

Ok but what is the expectation from him exactly?  Look at his career numbers.  What is the expectation?

[LABILLBACKER]

7 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Ok but what is the expectation from him exactly?  Look at his career numbers.  What is the expectation?

The expectation is more than on wheel route which sunshynman accurately said would've been a td. My expectation is 8-10 touches.

[Big Blitz]

Odds they are putting him in the slot and Duke is the third down/change of pace guy?

 

 

10%?  

[Matt_In_NH]

19 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The expectation is more than on wheel route which sunshynman accurately said would've been a td. My expectation is 8-10 touches.

That is not very realistic.   The bills average 20 touches to RBs.  So hynes gets half.  He is not a good runner at least statistically. They did not trade for mccaffrey.